Ukraine will do 'utmost, together with the whole civilized world, to restore' official 1991 borders
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00:00 And for more on this story, I'm joined by Alexander Rodanensky.
00:03 He's an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and professor of economics at Cambridge University.
00:09 Thanks so much for joining us here on France 24.
00:12 Earlier today, President Zelensky said we will win. So after two years of fighting,
00:18 who has the upper hand in this conflict, Russia or Ukraine? And what is it gonna take for Ukraine to win this war?
00:26 Clearly, this is a war of attrition and the front lines haven't moved that much,
00:31 even despite what you hear in recent news, with Russia capturing some small towns like Avdiivka.
00:36 Fundamentally, there's very little change in terms of who controls what or whether anybody, any side is able to break through the line.
00:43 So in other words, it's hard to answer your question definitively. In order for us to win and gain the upper hand,
00:49 we will obviously need more military support. Everybody has been mentioning that throughout. We're still waiting for some of that.
00:55 We're still waiting for Congress to vote in order for us to receive what we're meant to be receiving.
00:59 And it will, in general, just demand a lot more concerted efforts in the part of the Western world to make sure that there is economic pressure on Russia.
01:07 The sanctions regime right now is porous and Russia has no issues whatsoever in terms of circumventing the current restrictions.
01:15 Well, it's been about two weeks since President Zelensky replaced Ukraine's military chief with a new leader,
01:21 Alexander Zyrski, in a major shakeup, which was seen by many as sort of a reboot for the Ukrainian military.
01:29 Why was a reboot necessary?
01:31 I wouldn't say that it is entirely a reboot.
01:34 So General Zyrski, who is now the commander, essentially the main commander, the main general that we have, he was there throughout.
01:41 He was commanding the ground forces.
01:43 So he knows exactly what's going on.
01:45 And it's not really a change of team or a reboot, as you say.
01:49 It's just necessary from the perspective of our political leadership to make sure that we learn from our mistakes.
01:55 And that somehow is reflected in personal decision making.
01:58 And that's all you saw.
01:59 And that was not a signal for a change in strategy in any way?
02:02 Again, I don't think that the strategy is fundamentally different, but perhaps it does mean a change to some of the organizational issues and operational issues and the approach that was taken before.
02:14 You mentioned aid from other parts of the world, particularly the U.S.
02:18 You know, since Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, the U.S.
02:21 has been the largest provider of military aid to give by a wide margin.
02:25 There's now a reluctance on the part of many Republicans in the U.S.
02:29 Congress to continue funding this war effort.
02:32 From your standpoint, can Ukraine win this war without the financial help of the Americans?
02:38 Absolutely, but the price will be a lot steeper for us.
02:42 And concretely, it will mean a lot more lives lost because those aid packages that we're talking about, they are directly mapping into the lives and the risks that are taken by our soldiers at the battlefield, at the front lines.
02:55 So will we make it?
02:57 Yes, we will.
02:58 But it will be a lot harder.
02:59 And with U.S.
03:01 help now on hold, how confident are you that European allies can step in to fill the void?
03:06 Again, we're confident to some degree.
03:11 It's hard to say what will happen exactly.
03:13 We also have obviously plans of our own in terms of where we could be getting that revenue from.
03:18 Painful decisions that potentially need to be made in order in order for us to generate that revenue, whether it's taxes or whether it's other spending cuts, etc.
03:27 But hopefully everybody will step up, essentially.
03:31 All of our allies and the Western powers will know what's at stake.
03:34 And that's actually their own security at the end of the day.
03:36 So we're now officially entering the third year of this war.
03:40 How long do you foresee it continuing?
03:42 And do you think it will end with some kind of territorial settlement with the Russians?
03:47 I don't think that, you know, the the official position of the Ukrainian state and the Ukrainian people who overwhelmingly support that position as of right now, nobody is willing to take any compromises when it comes to territory, territories or our people who are actually in those territories and who are getting slaughtered, abused, raped.
04:09 Who knows what's happening to them?
04:10 We've seen it. We've seen it at Butcher just two years ago, just about two years ago.
04:15 So there is no way for us to compromise with Russia on on that.
04:19 And we have internationally recognized territories, which are the 1991 borders.
04:23 And we will make sure that we do our utmost, hopefully together with the whole civilized world, to restore those borders.
04:31 Well, so Western sanctions really haven't worked against Russia and weapons from allies, as we've been talking about, are running low.
04:37 Isn't there pressure, though, for Kiev to seek a settlement to to end this war?
04:42 Again, I wouldn't say there is pressure, but certainly this is a difficult situation.
04:48 There's no secret around it.
04:49 But again, if you ask the Ukrainian people, they're overwhelmingly behind the president and behind the position that we've taken officially, which is that we want to continue fighting.
04:59 We want to continue liberating our territories, our internationally recognized borders.
05:04 There's no way around that.
05:05 Will that change?
05:06 I don't know. I'm not here to say.
05:08 But as of right now, this nobody is willing to contemplate even what you're saying.
05:12 OK, we want to thank you, Alexander Rodanitsky, advisor to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and professor of economics at Cambridge University.
05:19 Thanks for taking the time to speak to us tonight on France 24.
05:23 Thank you.