What now for Pakistan and Imran Khan?
In an extraordinary turn of events independent candidates endorsed by and affiliated with the incarcerated former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have won the most number of seats in the National Assembly where 169 seats are needed to form a clean majority government. Former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, until recently on the run from a corruption-related case, returned to contest but does not seem to have been given anything approaching a mandate, although his Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Party (PMLN) is turning out to be the largest single party.
To understand the election’s aftermath Mayank Chhaya Reports spoke to Beena Sarwar, a well-known Pakistani journalist, documentary filmmaker, peace activist and political analyst from Lahore.
In an extraordinary turn of events independent candidates endorsed by and affiliated with the incarcerated former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have won the most number of seats in the National Assembly where 169 seats are needed to form a clean majority government. Former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, until recently on the run from a corruption-related case, returned to contest but does not seem to have been given anything approaching a mandate, although his Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Party (PMLN) is turning out to be the largest single party.
To understand the election’s aftermath Mayank Chhaya Reports spoke to Beena Sarwar, a well-known Pakistani journalist, documentary filmmaker, peace activist and political analyst from Lahore.
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00:00 In an extraordinary turn of events, independent candidates endorsed by and affiliated to the
00:12 incarcerated former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan's party Pakistan, the Arikain
00:19 Saab, have won the most number of seats in the National Assembly.
00:24 According to the Election Commission of Pakistan, independent candidates have won 98 seats,
00:30 where 169 seats are needed to form a clean majority government.
00:35 Despite assertions of his party, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Party or PMLN, having
00:41 won and ready to form a coalition government, it won only 69.
00:47 Former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, until recently on the run from a corruption-related
00:52 conviction, returned to contest but does not seem to have been given anything approaching
00:57 a mandate.
00:58 To understand the election's aftermath, Mayank Chaiya reports spoke to Bina Sarwar, a well-known
01:04 Pakistani journalist, writer, documentary filmmaker and political analyst from Lahore.
01:11 The interview was conducted on February 9th, before the Election Commission announced most
01:16 of the results.
01:18 Bina Sarwar.
01:21 Welcome to Mayank Chaiya Report.
01:23 Bina, it's a great pleasure to have you.
01:25 Likewise, Mayank.
01:27 Thank you so much for having me.
01:32 Do you think that the PTI has or is set really to win or is this a case of premature articulation
01:40 by its men?
01:46 I think that until the Election Commission calls it, I would not say that they have won.
01:53 And PTI has been in the running for some time.
01:57 They've, you know, like they boycotted one set of elections and they came in last time.
02:01 We know how they came in.
02:04 And they always say they won.
02:05 I mean, which is not to say they haven't got support.
02:08 They have huge support.
02:09 And I've spoken to a lot of people yesterday and a couple of days before all over the city
02:14 in Karachi where I was.
02:16 And of course, they have huge support.
02:18 But to say that they have won would be definitely premature articulation.
02:24 At this stage, the trends are, you think, in favor of the PTI winning eventually, if
02:35 everything is fair.
02:37 Well, so what trends are you going by?
02:40 I mean, I don't know, to be honest, I haven't, I'm not looking at social media right now.
02:44 I'm not following the TV channels.
02:45 I was following the TV channels until late last night.
02:49 But then, you know, like you can't really tell what an election result is going to be.
02:55 I think it's difficult, especially in a case like this, when there are so many contenders
03:00 right now.
03:01 There's the PPP, there's the PMLN, there's PTI.
03:05 And they each have their supporters, even MQM and even Labeq and even Jamaat-e-Islami
03:10 have their supporters.
03:13 And I think that to say that, for any one party to say that they have definitely won,
03:19 which we've seen other parties do that before.
03:21 PTI is not the first to do that at all.
03:25 So I mean, it's politics.
03:26 It's all about optics.
03:27 They're trying to like, you know, and then if the ECP announces that they have not, that
03:34 they're second or third or whatever, then they'll cry foul.
03:37 I mean, that's already in the coming.
03:40 If they win, it's fine.
03:42 And if they don't win, then they'll cry foul.
03:45 Right.
03:47 But their cases that their turnout of their base has been phenomenal and that should translate
03:54 into their victory.
03:55 Anyway, that's beside the point.
03:56 But irrespective of what happens, do you see any measure of stability, political stability
04:03 returning to Pakistan?
04:05 You know what I observed yesterday in Karachi, Mayank?
04:08 I went all over the city after casting my vote.
04:11 I went all over the city and I definitely met and talked to a lot of PTI supporters
04:15 and there were several PPP and also some PMLN even in Karachi.
04:22 And what I observed, which I really appreciated, was that I saw a degree of civility and political
04:32 maturity that really made me happy.
04:35 For example, I spoke to a lot of people who were sitting in small groups, like I'll give
04:38 you the example of there were three young men sitting inside a rickshaw right outside
04:43 Lehari, the entrance to Lehari, which is a PPP stronghold.
04:48 So each of them was voting for, two of them were voting for different parties, one for
04:52 PPI, one for PTI, one for PPP.
04:54 And the third was like, I'm not voting for anybody, they're all thieves.
04:58 But they were all sitting together.
05:00 And they drove off together.
05:03 And you didn't have the kind of mukabazi that you're seeing on social media and the kind
05:10 of rancor that you're seeing on social media and on TV and stuff and all this bharak by
05:17 the politicians.
05:18 I did not see any evidence of that among the people that I met yesterday in Karachi, in
05:25 different parts of the city.
05:27 And I think that that was really something that showed.
05:32 And there was a level of calm that I saw.
05:35 And yes, PTI supporters are definitely much more charged up because they feel that they're
05:40 being oppressed and they are being oppressed and they have been, they are being victimized.
05:46 But just as a, just to put it in context, it's not the first time a political party
05:51 has been victimized in Pakistan, which is not to say it should be, which is not to say
05:56 it should be at all.
05:58 But yeah, I think that that's my observation from yesterday.
06:04 And today also, I was talking to people in Lahore.
06:09 Does the military have any incentive in tampering in the event that PTI is running away with
06:16 the elections?
06:19 Does the military have an incentive?
06:22 Who knows?
06:23 I can't speak for the military, but I mean, they have an incentive as in, they, well,
06:32 look at it this way.
06:33 They, Project Imran, Project Imran Khan, which brought him to power in 2018, which is not
06:40 to say he would not have won a good number of seats, but with the help he got from the
06:45 militablishment as, you know, some people call it, with that help, he got a sizable
06:51 number more constituencies than he would have had otherwise.
06:55 And we've seen this pattern before also.
06:57 We've seen this with MQM, we've seen this with PMLN, you know, them being given a leg
07:03 up by the militablishment.
07:05 And then when things don't pan out, then, you know, the, they withdraw, the favor is
07:10 withdrawn and not, not just that, then you see political victimization, but it's just,
07:19 it's just something that they, I think they'll have to, I think, I think unless they stop
07:25 tampering with politics, stop interfering in politics, we're going to keep seeing more
07:32 of the same.
07:33 But I do want to say that democracy is a process, not an event, right?
07:38 So there's, it's an ongoing thing.
07:41 And what's, what we're seeing in Pakistan, I would say is two steps forward, one step
07:45 back perhaps, and that's still one step forward.
07:49 Right, right.
07:52 When do you expect the Election Commission to actually certify the outcome?
07:58 It should be, it should be any time now.
08:01 It should be, I mean, we're speaking, you know, Friday evening Lahore time, Friday,
08:08 Friday, it's 5.30pm here.
08:12 It should be, should be within the next few hours or by night for sure.
08:17 But there is a delay, which should not, this delay should not be there.
08:23 But again, this is not the first time, but which again is not to say that it's right
08:27 and it should not be happening.
08:31 In terms of Imran Khan's future, if the PTI wins, of course, there is a legal process
08:37 involved if he has to come out, even on bail.
08:41 Do you think this augurs well for him or it's still curtain for him, irrespective of whether
08:47 the PTI wins?
08:50 I think, I think one of the things that we're seeing is the large number of independents
08:55 that have come out, you know, who are basically PTI supporters, whose election symbol was
08:59 taken away from them.
09:01 They weren't allowed to contest as a party because of technicalities and those technicalities,
09:04 I mean, certainly it's there in terms of, you know, the party not having held internal
09:11 elections, which was a technicality.
09:13 They were like, you can't, you know, contest as a party if you don't have internal elections.
09:19 But the fact that people have come out, that it's energized so many people, I think that's,
09:24 that's good.
09:26 But Imran Khan himself, you know, he's a very dogged, you know, person, as we've seen.
09:35 He is very, very determined.
09:39 And he, you know, like, just he will, you know, keep going.
09:44 And that's good, I'm sure.
09:47 But I'm sure he'll keep making his efforts.
09:50 I think that what he might learn from this experience, which might, which might serve
09:57 him well in his to actually come forward in politics and be a statesman, would be the
10:02 injection of a little humility, a little ability to, you know, ability to compromise in on
10:09 issues and with other political parties.
10:13 We've seen compromise in terms of, you know, him saying that earlier on, you know, like
10:21 the corruption, you know, the corruption narrative that, of course, the military establishment,
10:26 of course, has been, you know, saying politicians are corrupt, politicians are bad, etc.
10:34 And of course, we know that that's not the only issue.
10:39 And politics is about give and take.
10:41 And corruption is a secondary kind of it.
10:43 I mean, it's it's a it is a major issue for sure.
10:46 And that needs to be accountability for sure.
10:49 But to throw the baby out of the bathwater and say, I'm the only one who will do it.
10:55 One person alone can't do it.
10:57 He has to have there has to be a system.
10:59 And when he started to build this party, he brought up all these people along with him,
11:06 who were the old, you know, the old guard who had been who had all these allegations
11:12 of corruption and stuff against them already.
11:14 So, you know, there's an element of hypocrisy, I would say, that he might be well advised
11:22 to examine and like be a little bit more self aware about these kind of things.
11:28 I think it would be very good for the country for him, you know, a bit of learning, a bit
11:32 of growing up.
11:35 In this specific context of the Tosha Khanna case and classified documents leakage case,
11:42 how do you see in terms of the merit?
11:46 Is it just a vendetta, as the PTI says, or there's something to it?
11:51 So, so, so basically, the thing is that, you know, it's like until they were out of favor,
11:58 it was all fine.
12:01 So there is vendetta there for sure.
12:03 But then there is, and we've seen this again, I'll say my own with multiple political parties
12:09 and politicians before, you know, it's not this is not the first time.
12:15 Things are, you know, overlooked and allowed to, you know, irregularities are allowed,
12:22 because you know, you're one of our boys, one of ours.
12:25 And the minute that you feel that somebody has overstepped their bounds or is not listening,
12:30 you know, "Humari billi, humi se miau", you know, as the saying goes, there's a huge element
12:37 of vindictiveness that comes in that may not be that, you know, that might be more.
12:42 But we've had like very, very extreme political vendetta in this country.
12:46 We've seen a Prime Minister hanged, we've seen an elected Prime Minister hanged, we've
12:49 seen, you know, the country dismembered in 1971, with a little help from our friends.
12:57 So indeed, yeah.
13:02 What do you think about the daggers drawn politics of Pakistan?
13:06 It's perpetual.
13:07 Everybody is just ready to unsheathe from their scabbard as it were, a sword or a knife.
13:14 It goes on.
13:16 Yeah.
13:17 So I think again, like I said, you know, like the what I saw on the ground was not like
13:22 what we are seeing on the kind of optics we are seeing, the kind of televised, the social
13:32 media stuff that we are seeing.
13:37 Really not that.
13:40 Right.
13:41 On the ground.
13:45 So I really think that what everybody needs a little bit more of is some adult behavior
13:50 and sort of like, just sort of learn.
13:52 I'll tell you something very wise.
13:54 This young, young man is a driver.
13:56 He's, you know, that I went around with yesterday.
13:59 He's from the Hazara area and he's a PTI supporter and he didn't have, he couldn't vote because
14:04 his vote is in his village and he hadn't got re-registered in Karachi.
14:08 And I've spoken to a lot of PTI supporters, not just PTI, but also others, by the way,
14:12 slight digression here.
14:14 A lot of people who couldn't vote because their votes are in the village and there's
14:19 a lot of migrant labor, a lot of people.
14:22 So a lot of people didn't work, polling agents, security people, whatever.
14:26 I was telling you what this young man said, what he said to me.
14:29 He said, "Siyasat kare nafrat nahi".
14:32 Do politics, not hatred.
14:34 "Siyasat kare nafrat nahi".
14:38 I was asking you about the daggers drawn politics.
14:41 And I'm saying that what I saw among people yesterday was not daggers drawn politics in
14:46 Karachi.
14:47 Karachi is a microcosm of Pakistan, 10% of the country's population, where all the political
14:52 parties are in Karachi, right?
14:56 In Punjab, there'll be a dominance of PMLN.
14:59 In Sindh, there's a dominance of PPP.
15:01 In the KP, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, you'll see mostly PTI.
15:06 But in Karachi, they're all there together.
15:08 So Punjab, I also know the people in Punjab who have been traditional Noon League supporters
15:14 have voted for PTI as well.
15:17 I did come across that as well.
15:19 But that doesn't mean that they have won.
15:22 And the daggers in Karachi on the ground, I didn't see, you know, people, you know,
15:30 daggers drawn.
15:31 And like I said, they were sitting together and voting for different parties.
15:39 Do you fear that any outcome that the Election Commission would eventually certify has the
15:48 potential to trigger some kind of unrest by some party or the other?
15:52 Well, of course, I mean, there will be, you know, that again, that always happens.
15:57 There'll be parties who will say that, you know, this was not fair to them or whatever.
16:01 And certainly, you can see in many areas, what was not fair and what wasn't fair.
16:06 But I don't know, we'll see.
16:08 I mean, I think that in the, I think that saying we're not going to play, which is what
16:19 they've done in the past, is not really helpful.
16:22 It doesn't it doesn't take things forward.
16:27 Boycotting does not help take things forward.
16:29 It's a way of registering protests.
16:31 But violence is not taking forward either.
16:35 So I think that maybe these elections will help people to sort of like start to settle
16:39 down and to realize that they need to, you know, like I said, exhibit a bit more adult
16:45 behavior, use their words more than their fists.
16:52 On that note, Bina, I want to thank you for your time.
16:56 It's been great talking to you.
16:58 I greatly appreciate this.
17:00 Thank you so much, man.
17:01 Lovely talking to you.