Dr Sreeradha Datta, Professor, Jindal Global University, Sonipat, India and Non resident Senior Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies, NUS, Singapore speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on the crisis in Bangladesh and implications for India | SAM Conversation
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00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor, to discuss the very recent
00:18crisis in Bangladesh. It is my pleasure to welcome Dr. Sreeradha Dutta, a scholar who
00:29has been in a number of institutes and think tanks, and has studied this subject very closely
00:43for some decades now. It's been very, the last few days, you know, have been very disturbing,
00:56whatever we're hearing. The 77-year-old Sheikh Hasina having to leave at very short notice,
01:03flee Bangladesh at very short notice, coming to India, still not certain when she will go
01:12to the United Kingdom. Awami League is all obviously, you know, sort of broken down.
01:20There are attacks on Hindus and temples, which are in full swing. Bangabandhu statue being
01:27desecrated is a very, very unpleasant sight. The Prime Minister's residence was raided. I mean,
01:37so many things which are so, so disturbing. And Muhammad Yunus and the army chief have said
01:48nothing about taking, you know, ensuring that the lives of Hindus and their property are safe.
01:57There's a lot we need to be very, very careful about. When for almost three decades,
02:09the Bangladesh Nationalist Party held power till 2009 almost, there was a very, very heavy presence
02:21of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, the ISI. And there was a concerted move to try and,
02:29you know, pump in illegal migrants from Bangladesh. There's a book which I wrote,
02:37Assam Terrorism and the Demographic Challenge. This was released in 2012, by which time there
02:46were about 11 districts, at least, where the demography had changed. There are states which
02:58share borders with Bangladesh, you know, which will have, they'll have to be careful. The Indian
03:05army, the Indian security apparatus, the Northeast will have to be very, very careful now. I won't
03:14take much more. I'll hand you over to Dr. Sreeradha Dutta for much more. Please.
03:22Thank you, Kalnurbar. Good to see you after long. Yes, it's extremely a complex and a very difficult
03:31phase that is unfolding in Bangladesh. But this evening, I think the Nobel Laureate has taken
03:39oath as head of the Ketika government or the interim government. And we've been hearing names
03:45of some extremely well known responsible civil society members who are likely to be part of the
03:51interim cabinet. Yes, while you do mention, and I haven't noticed, Dr. Yunus mentioned anything
03:59about the minority, but I haven't been tracking that so much. But it's incorrect to say that there
04:05has been no reaction from Bangladesh about the minority attacks. In fact, what we have seen
04:11images, and I've heard young students saying about how many of these, even the Madrasa students are
04:17guarding the temples just now. There's a constant plea to ensure that, you know, Hindus are protected,
04:24that they, there is of course, a narrative being built here in terms of how they had to flee their
04:29homes, they're coming towards India. Some of it may be true, we haven't seen the images as yet,
04:34it's difficult to see. But I think there is both misinformation, disinformation going on
04:38on both sides. So I would be a bit skeptic. I'm never denying that there hasn't been attacks. In
04:43fact, even Awami League members have been attacked. But of course, the Hindu, the minority attacks do
04:50concern us gravely. And we certainly, I'm hoping that once this interim government takes over,
04:56things will settle down. And I do agree with what you're saying, those images that we saw of
05:01Ganapobon and mistression of Mujib's statue was certainly not something that you looked,
05:08you know, we looked, it looked pretty to any one of us. But if you recall, the Aragalya movement
05:13that happened in Sri Lanka, you know, a couple of years ago was similar. So I just think it's
05:19a heat of the moment and of, I mean, of young youth, whatever. And let's not forget the fact
05:25that there are miscreants in every society. And Bangladesh has its share also. But also much of
05:31that is a lot of the pent up anger that they've had towards this government. So a reflection of
05:38that, and, you know, it's fine to say all of this, but let's not forget the kind of repressive
05:44measures that the government has, you know, applied to many of its civil society members.
05:50We in fact getting to see the extrajudicial killing list. We are seeing the disappeared
05:54personnel now appearing. So clearly, much of what policies and measures that were undertaken
06:01by Awami League is now, you know, pouring out and the anger of the people is pretty palpable.
06:06While this is not to excuse any of that, what is happening there, but I'm very convinced that
06:12Bangladeshis in general don't approve of what is happening. And they will ensure that once
06:17the interim government is in place, that the law and order, that will be their first priority to
06:22restore or not. I think it's heartening to hear from you that there are still at least elements
06:31who are trying to, you know, guard the Hindus and their temples, etc. It's heartening because
06:43from whatever visuals that we were seeing and what we're hearing, it was, you know, very,
06:49very disturbing. One has, you know, followed Bangladesh right from the time it became
06:56Bangladesh, you know, every year. If I may just button here a little bit, I'm sorry, but you know,
07:03I agree the visuals were very disturbing, but why are we ignoring the visuals which came before that,
07:08before 5th of August? Why we did not react to those visuals? I did not see a single commentator
07:14in India ever talk about it. I'm sorry to say this in public domain. No, no, you're right.
07:19I was screaming hoarse from 17th July at every, you know, platform that I had saying that this
07:25cannot go on, this is not tenable, this is not accountable. But I didn't see a single Indian
07:31responsible citizen or, you know, commentator talk about those visuals. Those visuals were pathetic
07:37when you saw unarmed students being bulleted and fell it down. I mean, that's not acceptable either.
07:44I think I can say I face the same because there are two, I won't go into names, but two
07:50individuals who turned down my request to, you know, discuss at a stage 10 days or more earlier.
07:59But now, what kind of hopes can we, you know, from Muhammad Yunus and from the army in the
08:14awail, the army chief sounded very, you know, proper that everything will carry on properly,
08:22there will be, you know, peace, there will be law and order. But somehow, having, you know,
08:34experienced an eruption in the armed forces set up shortly after Sheikh Hasina took over,
08:45it's a reminder that, you know, everything has not been hunky-dory as far as
08:56the Bangladesh army is concerned. After all, it is the same army which had very, very patriotic
09:05people who, you know, who supported the Awami League, but there were as many who did not,
09:16and it's such people who, at the hands of whom Bangabandhu got killed.
09:21So, I mean, that's history, but can one hope now that there is going to be,
09:36you know, a reasonable improvement in the situation? And what do you think is going to
09:43happen to the Awami League? That's, are they going to, now that they, you know,
09:50I don't think they're going to sit and take everything. They've lost 29 at least.
10:02Well, to begin with, I would think that, you know, right now it's a student movement,
10:07their influence on this particular interim cabinet is reflective of the nature of
10:13personalities who have been included, which is completely apolitical from various walks of life,
10:18from government and, you know, public sector. I didn't notice anyone from the private sector,
10:24perhaps, but, you know, it's maybe I don't have the full list with me as yet. But more importantly,
10:30I'm not sure what is the, because we don't know those details, how long they intend to be there.
10:36As we know, a KTK government in its earlier avatar used to be there for three months to,
10:41you know, assess the election commission for free and fair election. But this is a bit of
10:46a different nature. Bangladesh has had elections this January, so I'm not sure how early they can
10:51go into elections. But coming back to the Awami point, I mean, I would think that Bangladesh now
10:57wants a really a robust multi-party democratic nation. And it is in that state, they will
11:04certainly want Awami League to be participative. It cannot be a one-sided affair, which we've seen
11:09in the last 15 years. That is exactly what the students were protesting about. The last 15 years
11:14was a one-party rule in Bangladesh. And I'm sure they will not approve of the same. We've just,
11:20I've just heard one interview, particularly of Dr. Yunus, where he talks about Jamaat being,
11:25you know, entering the political landscape, which they always were there. I've, in fact, in one of
11:29my books, call them the Queenmaker, because they've always sided with the government,
11:35or outside. So they're saying that let Jamaat also, you know, Jamaat has never won
11:40more than 5% or 4% votes, actually. So I'm quite convinced that Bangladeshis don't want
11:46Jamaat per se as a political entity to governing them. But I think what essentially Bangladeshis
11:52want now is a level playing field for every single political party. And I'm sure Awami League will
11:59also be included in that particular dispensation when that particular thing happens. Right now,
12:04of course, as you mentioned, tempers are very high. You know, the misdeeds, if I could say that,
12:10of the last few years has taken a toll. And, you know, when a particular party is in power,
12:17and they're ruling the roost, then nobody talks about it. But what has happened, this pressure
12:22cooker thing that has now come up, is something that we didn't see these after effects in
12:27Bangladesh. But again, if I, you know, I've been hearing a lot of these students and their
12:32interviews last couple of weeks, I'm super impressed with the maturity, with the moderation
12:38that they have, and the kind of vision they represent of Bangladesh. I don't think I've even
12:43seen any political leader in Bangladesh, either Awami or else, any of the other political party,
12:48talk about that in such an articulate manner. So I'm very convinced that I think Bangladesh
12:53will save us. Yes, it's a tumultuous period. It's going to take a while. We don't want to
12:58see that kind of violence and what is, you know, right now unfolding there. But again, as I say,
13:04and I'm hoping we're all keeping our fingers crossed that things will settle down, and we
13:07will see a far more democratic nation once again. Well, you know, it's nice to hear you being,
13:19you know, being able to bring out the potential of a very significant improvement in the situation.
13:31And first of all, it beats one's imagination how it came about because Bangladesh was one country
13:38which was doing quite well, you know, compared to, we've had, we have more than a share of
13:49problems in this neighbourhood with. Awami League took over. It was a great relief to India, you
14:00know, at least from that point of view, as far as India is concerned, it was a great relief.
14:09But it's a pity why, as you brought out, how such, how things reached a stage where, you know,
14:21such unfair means got adopted by the Awami League government.
14:28One can only hope that now when, you know, things start getting, start getting OK, they become OK
14:42because really, I'm extremely, as a military analyst, I'm extremely apprehensive about the
14:52kind of trouble we can have at the hands of, if the ranks of Pakistan's ISI starts swelling up
15:00again, you know, in Bangladesh. It's, in fact, the ISI which converted the insurgency movements,
15:12the purely insurgency movements of the Northeast into terrorist movements, you know, insurgency
15:19come terrorism, whether it is Assam or Manipur or, you know, any of the insurgent groups.
15:38Anything else, Sridhar, that you'd like to add?
15:43I completely agree about the security concerns that we have. And I'm just hoping again that
15:50the Bangladesh that you referred to, which is a phase of 2001 and 2006, when we saw these kind of,
15:56you know, anti-India activities taking place from Bangladeshi soil, which is very much egged on by
16:01Pakistan. And even now, there's a lot of narrative about these external players and their hand there.
16:06But I do believe that today's Bangladesh is a different Bangladesh. It's not the same 2001
16:11Bangladesh. And also, you know, the neighbors, all the neighbors, including Bangladesh,
16:17have understood the dividends of working with India. And what would they gain by doing what
16:23you're suggesting they would? In fact, in the Northeast also, again, the situation is very
16:27different in the Northeast. Today, the only particular element who's the difficult one is
16:32Manipur, right? And so we, I mean, I think we can control our own internal issues ourselves.
16:40We have the wherewithal, which we at that point of time is different, our capacities are different.
16:45The security concerns are always abound in the neighborhood. It's not to discount that.
16:49But I think that I would expect Bangladesh to understand that it is by working with India,
16:55they will benefit more. It's a mutually, you know, beneficial situation that we now live in.
17:02It's a completely integrated economies that we live in, cross-border facilities, which are
17:06working so fabulously. So essentially, every government wants to deliver for its own people.
17:11And I think working with India, the delivery mechanisms are going to be far more robust.
17:17And why would Bangladesh not want to do that? Also, you know, being a strong India as a partner
17:23is also a counterbalance for the other external players, and you know, not to mention China here.
17:28So I don't think Bangladesh would want to lose that advantage of working with India.
17:32They want to showcase their, you know, partnership with India, because that's also a strong message
17:37to the other players, which they also want to capitalize on that. So it's, I think it's a great,
17:42I mean, I think the new, the emergent Bangladesh that we see now, and a multi-party Bangladesh with
17:47different, you know, political views, this is not to ever discount the kind of support that
17:53Sheikh Hasina gave to us. It's true. But at the same time, domestically, the kind of things that
17:58took place was clearly something that we didn't ever raise, because it was suiting us to work
18:03with Sheikh Hasina at that point of time. But the non-democratic practices, the repression that she,
18:09you know, folded on media and the civil society was something which is completely
18:15non-acceptable. So, but I hope things are settled down. And I hope that the new Bangladesh that we
18:20see is one Bangladesh, which will see the benefit of working with India. That's what I'm
18:26looking forward to. And I think the new generation is politically aware, economically conscious,
18:32they want a better life for themselves. And that will happen only when they work in partnership
18:37with us and everybody around them. No, no, you're very right. We are the, you know,
18:43one country which it will be very beneficial to Bangladesh to, you know, continue
18:52economic cooperation with them, without doubt, without doubt. And from whatever you were going
18:59to say, I'll say like they say in Hindi, let this all happen, because it's very important that
19:12things get back to, and it's a pity that a person like Sheikh Hasina Wajid, you know,
19:22took a course which was not really expected of and the way she's left, maybe, you know,
19:30it's indicative. Anyway, that's history. But let's only hope for, as far as India-Bangladesh
19:41relations are concerned. First of all, let there be normalcy in Bangladesh and let India-Bangladesh
19:48relations, you know, come back to as best as possible. Thank you very much, Sriradha.
20:01I'm very happy about this. I mean, you know, India has always had a very binary approach
20:07to Bangladesh. Hopefully, we will move away from that. And I think we'll be able to work with
20:11whichever entity comes to, comes elected to Dhaka. I think India is very much ready to work
20:18with everyone there. So, looking forward to a far more positive bilateral relation without the other
20:25things putting us down. Thank you very much, Sriradha. All the best. Thank you.