Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on the Bangladesh transition and its implications for South Asia | SAM Conversation
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00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor. Bangladesh in Transition
00:17and its Implications for South Asia. For this topic, it is our pleasure to welcome Dr. Smruti
00:26S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis.
00:39The Awami League, which was a breakaway from the Muslim League in 1949 and named as Awami League
00:50in honour of people, Awam meaning the people and also the party which got Bangladesh,
00:59because of which East Pakistan became Bangladesh, because of which it got its liberation.
01:05In June 2024, when a move was made to give 30% of reservation for descendants of freedom fighters,
01:25that opened the floodgates of absolute chaos and anarchy. From August began
01:40their iconic scenes of Bangabandhu, Mujibur Rahman's statue being attempted to be destroyed
01:53and then began the systematic targeting of Hindus, Buddhists, Christians and which
02:05eventually turned in particular against Hindus, destruction of their properties, their businesses
02:13and killings. The only consolation so far, very recently which has come about, is that
02:26the Awami League has gone to the International Criminal Court charging, you know,
02:34the one who is hitting Bangladesh with crimes and Donald Trump too has spoken up against it.
02:55Shruti, I think the first thing if you will please elaborate on is,
03:01what is it that led to all this? Briefly.
03:07I would say that, as you rightly said, the protest movement started in June. It was a protest against
03:15Supreme Court, you know, it's actually, there was an amendment, there was a circular which was
03:24in fact brought in by Awami League government in 2018, where grade 9 to grade 13 jobs,
03:31government jobs, were supposed to be without quota. Now, Supreme Court in its June judgment
03:37said that this quota is being restored because it is an ultra-violence of the constitution,
03:42because the constitutional provision is that they have to give quota to those people who fought in
03:48the liberation war. You know, this is basically the quota being given to the next generation,
03:56not next to next generation, including, you know, grandchildren of the freedom fighters. And
04:01since all of us, we know that in any kind of government jobs, when quota is introduced and
04:06government jobs, this test is very scarce. And so most of the middle class educated people,
04:11they feel that, you know, their attempt to rise in the social ladder actually has been,
04:17you know, is being taken by the government. Now, when the Supreme Court gave this particular
04:22judgment, given the fact that Awami League had a lot of control over the judiciary,
04:27the students thought that probably this is something that, you know, probably was premeditated
04:33and it was Awami League probably wanted to restore, you know, the reservation which it had
04:40done away with in 2018. That is number one. Number two is that, you know, after when this quota
04:47movement, in fact, garnered momentum in July, Sheikh Hasina's statement that if I don't give
04:54reservation to the freedom fighters, shall I give the reservation to the Razaqars? Razaqar in
05:00Bangladesh's political context is a very derogatory kind of terminology. So, students, of course,
05:07you know, this is something which made the students extremely angry and they felt that,
05:12you know, they're being labeled as anti-national in the common parlance. It will be anti-national,
05:18it will be the collaborator with the Pakistani regime, which is worse than being anti-national.
05:23So, that actually, in fact, fuelled this, you know, this particular movement and, of course,
05:29as it is known as Gano Abhiyuthan, which is people's revolution, people's revolt.
05:34So, obviously, people from all walk of life, they joined with the youth when people were
05:42killed and the former prime minister addressed the nation, you know, actually many people feel
05:49that she was not apologetic regarding the death of six students. And after that, the order was given
05:57to clamp down on this movement, which actually resulted in much more killing, which actually
06:03brought the army saying that they will stand by the nation, which actually meant that they're not
06:08going to stand by the government. Obviously, there was no other option rather than providing
06:13safe passes to Sheikh Hasina and we all know that she has taken asylum in India now.
06:23Thank you. You know, Muhammad Yunus,
06:28it's quite obvious that all this mayhem against Hindus doesn't seem to have moved him.
06:39And as far as governing of Bangladesh is concerned, also I don't think there is anything that he can
06:47be given credit to. Would you like to elaborate on what he has done or what he is supposed to be
06:56doing? In fact, when he came in as the chief advisor of the interim regime, initially he
07:07was slightly reluctant and later the students who had spearheaded this particular movement,
07:12in fact, asked for him to give, you know, to lead the country at this particular critical
07:17moment of the transition. Initially, when he joined the movement, you know, there were
07:24attacks against the Hindus, including some of the supporters of Aamili. There was attack also on the
07:31police and many of the police left that post and went into hiding. So, there was complete chaos
07:36in Dhaka and other areas. Police was not present. So, it was taken, the street was taken by,
07:43you know, criminal gangs belonging to all political affiliation and also, you know,
07:50the general people, you know, who thought this is an opportunity to loot. Some people thought
07:56this is an opportunity to teach a lesson to the minorities because minorities are seen,
08:01especially the Hindus, are seen as supporters of the Aamili. And in fact, in the last 10 years
08:08of Haseena's rule, I'm not saying, I'm not including the 15 years because the first five
08:13years he had got a thumping majority rule the country. But then again, you know, I would say
08:17that in the last 10 to 15 years, many believed, you know, it's a perception, it's not that what
08:25is the reality, it's very difficult to know. There was a belief that Aamili had knowingly placed
08:30Hindus in more important positions at the cost of, you know, Muslims who are equally good.
08:37And like, for example, they are made DCs. One of them was, I think, the chairman of the
08:44textbook committee, with somewhere also vice chancellors and somewhere also
08:51appointed as a police super, in a sense, police commissioner. So, in a sense,
08:57so there was this anger because of the perception and because of the motivated campaign by
09:03vested interest to say that, you know, Aamili is appeasing the Hindus, Aamili is appeasing the
09:08India. So, there was this kind of perception which was created by the vested interest,
09:13whether it, you know, it is true that the Hindus were in important position.
09:17So, therefore, the thing is that, you know, the attack was both Hindu as a minority community,
09:23who has had taken advantage of Aamili being in the rule, that is number one. Number two,
09:28Hindus as supporters of Aamili, since the target was Aamili, so Hindu automatically became the
09:33target. Third is that in Bangladesh, we have seen, in fact, in the past since Bangladesh's
09:38liberation, the, you know, there is this vested property act. So, in a sense, you can claim a
09:43Hindu property saying that this is a vested property and there is a coalition of a kind of
09:49interest. So, a person who goes and says that this is a vested property, the DC, which lists that
09:55particular property as vested property, and there is this bribe even to get your legitimate property
10:01out of the list of the vested property, sometimes people have to pay bribes. So, there is Hindu
10:06are economically vulnerable because as all of us we know in East Pakistan, the landed,
10:12as you should have seen, majority of them were Hindus. So, this, you know, there is this economic
10:17aspect to attack on Hindus, to pressurize them, to force them to leave the country.
10:22But also at the same time, I would like to add that this is the first time the Hindus also came
10:26together, protested against the violence which was happening to them, and they actually quoted
10:34a famous song in Bangla which says that this country does not belong to anybody's father.
10:40In a sense, we will not leave the country. That was the spirit, number one. Number two, as you
10:45asked, you know, about the approach of the interim regime. In fact, there was Prime Minister Modi
10:51also spoke to the caretaker chief, Prof. Mohammad Innoos, and he visited the Rakeshwari temple. But
11:00also at the same time, I would not say that he is not committed to protect the Hindus. The fact is
11:05that, as I said, police have left their post, you know, who will give the protection at this
11:10moment of time when the law and order mechanism completely got paralyzed due to the manner in
11:17which the government fell. But, you know, what is alarming is that we've had for the 15 years
11:31that the Awami League ruled from 2009 onwards, we again had a renewal of, you know,
11:41friendship and all that. Every year we were celebrating the Yodhas, that is war
11:53veterans of the Mukti Vahini and Indian Army would meet in Dhaka, Calcutta, Delhi,
12:02and, you know, pay tributes to all those whose lives were lost in this. And
12:11it had, there was a good, you know, renewal because during the Bangladesh Nationalist Party's
12:19regime, we had, I think, a very large presence of Pakistan's ISI there who made an entry into
12:30our northeastern region. And, you know, they converted what were classically insurgents
12:39into insurgent-cum-terrorists like the Alpha, like the Maithai, you know, undergrounds,
12:48the Naga underground. All of them were, you know, literally converted to, with a very
12:56good stock of weaponry and all being made available to them, money. And it also, in Assam,
13:08it created a movement of, you know, easing, creating conditions for illegal settlers to come.
13:18I wrote a book, you know, Assam Terrorism and the Demographic Challenge. In 2008,
13:24there were 8 districts where the demography had changed, you know. And now, I think, it's
13:3114 districts or so where the demography is, you know. But still, in this period of 2009 till
13:43June this year, the relationship was very good. That is now, I think, in a bit of,
13:51and there are reports that even the army has joined in, you know, targeting Hindus. Is that
14:00correct? And what else have you got to say on this? I would say that as you correctly mentioned
14:08that during the BNP regime between 2001 to 2006 was the worst nightmare as far as India is concerned.
14:15We saw the rise of radicalism within Bangladesh. Like, for example, the 2005 bomb blast in 63
14:22districts, simultaneous bomb blasts in 63 districts out of 64, where the JNB announced
14:28that they are present and they would like to have a government, Islamist government at that point
14:34of time. We also saw, you know, the suicide bombing in the judiciary. We also saw in 2004,
14:4210 truckloads of arms and ammunition, which was, which landed in a jetty in Chittagong.
14:47And many of the, as you rightly said, many of the Indian insurgent groups were provided
14:52shelter in Bangladesh and they were handed over only after the Aumili came to power.
14:56But having said that, I would also like to say that, you know, this entire thing of starting,
15:03you know, to honoring those people who fought the liberation war, not just from India,
15:07across the world, was a tradition which was started in 2007 and 2008 when military-backed
15:13categorism was in power. So, I would say that it is the Bangladesh army which established this
15:18particular tradition and thought that, you know, this needs to be emphasized and celebrated. And
15:23this was taken forward by, you know, by the Aumili regime, which was in power. And I completely agree
15:32with you, the relationship between India and Bangladesh was excellent. But also at the same
15:36time, I would like to say that we have, in fact, institutionalized this relationship to a very
15:42large extent. Unlike in the past, between 1999 to 2009, I would say 2008, when Moinuddin Ahmad
15:52visited India, General Moinuddin Ahmad, you really did not have any army chief visiting,
15:57Bangladesh army chief visiting India. But that situation has changed. You have now,
16:02both the armies, India and Bangladesh, are training in each other's NDC. You also have
16:08various joint exercises that have been introduced in the past 10 years. So, therefore, I'm speaking
16:13of institutionalization. So, it is no more a relationship only with the Aumili, but you also
16:19have, India also has developed relationship with the Bangladesh army. And the particular incident
16:24you are speaking in Chittagong actually is, you know, where, as per the newspaper report,
16:31one of the leaders of Jamaat-e-Islami or the worker of Jamaat-e-Islami had put a social media
16:37post against ISKCON in Bangladesh. And there was demonstration against that particular post,
16:42in which, as I said, you know, the police had left, has left that post in spite of army asking
16:48them to come and take over the position. Many are still scared of reprisal attack on them,
16:54because the government's position is that anybody who has been involved in attack in the past,
16:59action will be taken against them. And all of us, we know in the past 15 years, Aumili used the
17:05police as a political instrument. So, many of the police are also scared. So, it was much more of a
17:11law and order kind of situation, which army was trying to control, as per the media report. That
17:16is what I understand. But I don't think Bangladesh army was being an instrument to attack on the
17:24Hindus, is something which is a little difficult to believe. But then again, one is only relying
17:28on the newspaper report, one does not know the truth. But I don't think so, at this moment,
17:33they can afford to antagonize. I fully, I will know that my reaction was also the same as
17:41that it should not, cannot be. But you know, today, it's a free media. And there are fake
17:49reports also that keep coming out in media. But now, at this stage, while the Aumili has
18:01charged Mohammed Yunus and maybe I think 66 others of crimes, we don't know the exact details,
18:10but this is at least a beginning. What do you see the future as coming out as, near future?
18:19I would say that, you know, these charges and counter charges in Bangladesh's politics,
18:23if you watch it, it's not something, you know, which is new. One political party comes, then
18:29there are charges against the outgoing party. So, it is a kind of Bangladesh's political tradition.
18:35I just wish that Bangladesh need to come out of this particular tradition. Of course,
18:40the background in which this particular interim regime has come, obviously, it is a student cum
18:46people's movement. So, therefore, there is this pressure to try those people who have been
18:50involved in crime, they're calling genocide, although I don't agree with that, you know,
18:56genocide is a very different kind of terminology. You know, one should not use this particular word
19:01very, very loosely. So, therefore, I would say the future of Bangladesh looks like, you know,
19:06there has to be an election because all of us we know the interim regime, which is backed by the
19:11Bangladesh military, should be a transitional government. And the focus must be on, you know,
19:17bringing electoral reforms, which will facilitate kind of election. But this particular government
19:22has taken into its ambit, like, for example, reforming the constitution or rewriting a new
19:28constitution. And then, you know, reforming the police, reforming the judiciary, reforming the
19:34political system, I think it's too much for any interim regime to take into its ambit.
19:39And if I can give an example, if you take the example of Nepal, exactly this constitution
19:44writing of 1990, which was done by the, you know, monarchies appointed committee, we saw how it led
19:51to the underground movement of the Maoists, which insisted on the elected constituent assembly to
19:56write the constitution. And we also, coming back to Bangladesh's example, in 2007 and 2008, there
20:02are many reforms which are brought in by the Bangladesh army back to interim regime at that
20:08point of time. But once the election happened, army came to power, many of them were not passed,
20:13you know, you can't rule through ordinance, the ordinance has to be passed by the parliament to
20:19become a law. So I really do not know how far these reforms will be sustainable. But I can only
20:24say that perhaps these reforms are necessary to have at least a clean election, a clean and free
20:30and fair election. And of course, it will be up to the elected government to bring in the necessary
20:36reforms, whether they would like to have a new constitution. But also at the same time, I must
20:41say that the election needs to be inclusive. I'm saying that the moment you exclude a political
20:46party, like it happened in 2014, 18 and 24 election done by the army league, it will lead to this kind
20:53of movement, because whether it is army league, in spite of what it did, it has a support base,
20:58you know, like the BNP, you know, these are two political parties. So I really think the election
21:03needs to be inclusive, because if you require a stable government, and any stable government,
21:08there is a geographical duality of India and Bangladesh, it is an interdependent relationship.
21:13And the geography will definitely dictate the bilateral relationship between the two countries.
21:18Of course, you know, the political parties can give a kind of direction to it. But I'm sure
21:23this particular relationship will move forward, irrespective of who is in power in Dhaka.
21:29Very, very briefly, you think there was a talk about the American connection.
21:40Do you have anything to say about that?
21:43See, you know, when the government failed, of course, the only thing one can make two plus two
21:48together in social science is this, that the government, in fact, the fall of Haseena and
21:54taking over by, you know, briefly by the Bangladesh army, was welcomed by the US,
22:00it was the first country to welcome it. And the speculation is that since because, you know,
22:06this particular speculation of the Western involvement is because Muhammad Dinoos,
22:10who have been seen as a close as a person close to the Western countries, is in power. So but
22:16also at the same time, having said that, I would say that there was genuine movement,
22:21there was genuine anger against the army league in power, there was, you know, humongous corruption
22:28in this thing. And there was there was also, you know, the Digital Security Act,
22:32where you really do not have the freedom of expression, where people are scared to speak
22:37in public. So therefore, you know, in a sense, the governance was also not very great,
22:42the economy was started doing badly post COVID. So therefore, there are many other factors,
22:48which actually led, I think the major factor is that having flawed elections over and over again,
22:54and also, at the same time, being very, very dictatorial towards the opposition and towards
23:00the free expression by common people, at least you should have that forum, that space,
23:07where you can express your anger. If that is closed, obviously, you will see this kind of movement
23:11in any country. And do you think that Mr. Trump's message will have any effect?
23:24I would say that I really do not know whether Trump's message was for the domestic audience in
23:29the US. He's not even taken over yet. But anyway, he's the he's one leader who's made that. Thank
23:36you very much. Dr. Patnaik, it was, you brought out some very pertinent and important points.
23:45Thank you. All the best.
23:48Thank you, Kunal Bhatt for having me in this program. Thank you so much.