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00:00 Wednesday, welcome to the best college football show on the Internet.
00:02 This is behind the points spread presented by Betfred Sports.
00:05 I'm Travis Justice.
00:06 And over the next half hour or so, we're going to be taking a look at some of the
00:09 biggest college football games in the country this week, we're talking about
00:12 conference championship week.
00:14 We're going to go inside the PAC 12, the big 10, the big 12, the ACC and the SEC.
00:20 Before we get started tonight, you're watching, uh, most likely on YouTube.
00:24 If you are on YouTube, hit the subscribe button.
00:27 It's very, very simple.
00:28 Just hit the subscribe button.
00:30 That way you'll be able to get all the content that we put out on a weekly basis.
00:34 And of course we won't stop during the off season.
00:37 If you're watching on Facebook or if you're watching on Twitter, you
00:40 can interact with us tonight.
00:41 That's right.
00:42 All you have to do is use the comment section and, uh, your comments will pop
00:46 up and we'll be able to hear what, uh, some questions you have, but better yet.
00:49 This is a live call in show as well.
00:52 And you're more than welcome to pick up your phone and say, you know what?
00:55 I want to ask Scott Spreicher a question.
00:56 I want to ask Dr.
00:57 Rob Zaduska a question.
00:58 You can do that by calling 402-543-5556.
01:02 Just to let you know, when you call my son, Owen's going to pick up the phone.
01:05 He's going to say, welcome to doc talk.
01:07 He's going to screen your call and then put you into the
01:09 queue and we'll get you ready to go.
01:10 So speaking of being ready to go, uh, let's bring in, uh, the, the, the two
01:16 other men that, uh, well are ready to go and God, this season flew by.
01:19 It seems like just not too long ago.
01:21 We were doing week one.
01:22 Here we are.
01:23 Scott Spricher, Dr.
01:24 Rob Zaduska on championship weekend.
01:28 It's crazy, man.
01:28 It's like you wait all year for it for the college football season that
01:33 it's gone before you can blink an eye.
01:34 Uh, it seems like it was about two nights ago.
01:37 We were talking is Nebraska going to do this loose, close games and find
01:40 ways to do it all season long.
01:41 And yes, they did.
01:44 You found out the answer is Y E S and capital letters.
01:48 So it's, uh, it's been an interesting season.
01:50 I got to say this has been the toughest season I've had in 20 years.
01:56 College football.
01:58 And really?
01:59 Yeah.
01:59 A lot of guys there's, there's an invitational at the circle hotel.
02:03 I'll give you guys an example.
02:04 And I keep getting invited into it every year, but I don't do it because
02:08 they give out all the plays that everybody puts out on Friday nights,
02:11 which would be unfair to my, to my clientele to pay.
02:14 And then, you know, they'd be a little upset, obviously.
02:17 So I have to turn it down, but there's 20.
02:19 Bettors professional betters in this contest this year.
02:24 And out of the 20, I believe there's only four who are having a winning season.
02:27 And these are sharp professional betters.
02:30 Uh, not just the Joe off the street is, you know, playing a 10 team barley.
02:34 And so it's been interesting.
02:37 I know we keep trying to talk about, do you think it's because of the.
02:40 Availability to transfer almost whenever you want and play almost
02:46 immediately is that part of it?
02:48 Is it the, the nil money that's changing the landscape of college football?
02:52 So the one thing that I noticed that's different this year and maybe last year
02:55 to a certain extent, but especially this season guys, is that before the season
03:00 begins every year, for as long as I've been doing this, usually in late July,
03:03 early August, we have a bunch of us that put together returning starters,
03:07 returning second stringers who sold significant playing time the year before.
03:11 Uh, due to injuries or what have you, you don't have that anymore.
03:14 You've got, you know, team a has 70 different players this year.
03:18 Team B has 50 and so on and so on.
03:21 So I think that's just going to cause an adjustment needed to be made
03:25 for most long-time sports betters.
03:27 Dr.
03:28 Rob, it was interesting.
03:29 Cause Matt rule had his state of the union today.
03:32 Should we say the season wrap up?
03:33 And he talked about the portal and he talked about going after a really good
03:37 portal quarterback could cost between one and $2 million.
03:41 That's the going rate for a quarterback.
03:43 Now, did you, you probably didn't make that much in the NFL.
03:46 Did you?
03:46 Well, not in one year.
03:49 I didn't.
03:50 Actually, actually, I don't think I've made a million
03:53 dollars in my entire career.
03:56 Actually, I know for a fact I didn't.
03:59 You mean for your entire NFL career?
04:01 Entire NFL career.
04:03 Wow.
04:04 I will.
04:05 And keep in mind too, this was like mid late 1990s.
04:09 So that's true.
04:10 The dollars were a little different then, but
04:12 surprise you though?
04:14 No, because I mean, when you look at Nebraska and they went after Casey
04:19 Thompson, I, you know, you and I talked about on the show at that
04:24 time when they went after Casey, I don't think his number was a million dollars.
04:28 But it was, I mean, it was six figures.
04:32 Oh, absolutely.
04:34 I mean, I think I remember he was on with bus and with the boys.
04:37 I think he said the entire offensive line was making six figures.
04:40 I mean, so that's, yeah.
04:42 Yeah.
04:43 Most of the guys I've talked with down in Lincoln, I mean, you're now six
04:48 figures can be a hundred thousand dollars, six figures can be $900,000.
04:52 It's kind of a range there, but it's, you know, for a lot of these guys, when
04:59 you look at it, when it's kind of one of these, I guess I call it sort
05:02 of a game changer kind of guy.
05:04 I mean, if you're looking at a Trey Palmer, if you're looking at a Casey
05:08 Thompson, I mean, these are guys that.
05:11 Change how a team plays and that changed how Nebraska played.
05:16 I mean, you know, Travis, I don't say this truly not trying to rub stuff in
05:22 last year, cause you got the win this year, but I mean, Trey Palmer's the
05:26 reason Nebraska, in my opinion, beat Iowa last year, I believe we got wins
05:32 five out of the last six years, but I'm just, okay.
05:35 Yeah.
05:35 You know what I'm saying?
05:36 But I'm just saying it's, if you've got one guy that can change the change
05:42 of game in this day and age, that's worth six figures, but I think this
05:50 is Scott, if you agree with this, you're going to start paying that kind of money.
05:53 People are going to start wanting return on investment, right?
05:56 I mean, people want return on investment when they, when
05:59 they give that kind of money.
06:00 Absolutely.
06:01 They do.
06:01 And that's, you know, there's a couple of things that are
06:03 coming down the road anytime.
06:05 Now you better play to the amount you're making or close to it.
06:10 Also, boy, I hope these universities, I might've said this before on this show.
06:14 I've said it on other shows.
06:15 I sure hope these universities have offices that are helping these
06:18 kids understand about taxes, about the IRS, because I just keep getting the
06:23 feeling there is a wave of shit coming down the road and we're going to hear
06:28 about a lot of guys that didn't pay their taxes, I hope the universities
06:32 are helping out with that real quick.
06:34 I had to, I got, I had to move my screen around here because I saw the yellow
06:39 and I thought, holy crap, Travis has converted Dr.
06:43 Rob, he's wearing Hawkeye colors.
06:45 And then I moved it away.
06:46 So, okay, Augustan, I'm all right with that.
06:47 That's cool.
06:48 I got a little scared there.
06:49 I thought I was going to have to just log out and just.
06:51 Before we dive into the games tonight, 402-543-5556.
06:58 Let's go to the phones.
06:59 That's where Zach is.
07:00 Zach, do you got a question for Scott Freitscher, Dr.
07:02 Rob?
07:02 Hey, no, this is a question for everybody.
07:08 Um, I just was wondering, um, just the process for somebody that does not
07:14 know, or a lot of the people that don't know much about NIL or the 1890 initiative.
07:20 So what exactly, could you explain the process for, Hey, we, we like,
07:26 we found a game changer, specifically a quarterback out there.
07:30 And I know rule said, um, to find a good quarterback need to pay,
07:36 you know, like over a million dollars.
07:38 So what is the process of reaching out to a certain player?
07:43 Um, specifically a quarterback.
07:46 Um, and I, in my opinion, I don't think that, uh, rule from what he, his comments
07:53 are, they would, they would like go this route, but what is the process of reaching
07:58 out to a quarterback and getting a name that some people might know, um, and
08:04 offering him or, or what, whatnot to come play for the university.
08:08 It's very, very complicated, Zach.
08:10 And the NCAA rules are absolutely ridiculous, which is why this is all
08:14 got to go in house because technically Matt rule can't offer any money.
08:19 To a quarterback that offer and the NIL deal has to come from the 1890 initiative.
08:25 And then the 1890 initiative needs to reach out to that quarterback.
08:29 No money can be talked.
08:31 Now, what can happen is Matt rule can say, Hey, this guy's in the portal.
08:35 We're going to go after him.
08:36 And then 1890 has to make the, the, the back channel from a money way.
08:41 And then Matt rule has to come in, uh, from the, from the recruiting way.
08:44 And so they have to like meet in the middle, but they can never communicate.
08:48 Now, do I think they've never communicated?
08:50 Uh, I, I, this is where it's all screwed up.
08:53 Right.
08:54 I mean, I, and this goes for every program in the country.
08:56 If your coach isn't talking to the NIL guy, there's something wrong.
09:00 The NCAA is so has a, so ass backwards.
09:02 Does that make sense?
09:04 There there's enough, you know, I I've talked to enough guys, whether it's
09:08 parents, whether it's recruits themselves, um, coaches, and now I'm
09:15 going to clarify something here.
09:16 This is not Nebraska coaches, but it's, there's discussions.
09:23 I mean, the coaches talk about this stuff.
09:26 Coaches in schools, reach out to players.
09:29 This discussion happens because we sat around and we've talked about like,
09:33 okay, well, how does 1890 know who they're recruiting?
09:37 How does 1890 know what the priorities are?
09:41 There's some lines of communication there.
09:45 Now I'm sure there's PR they're, they're probably separated by two or three
09:49 degrees, but those lines of communication are open.
09:52 And so that is happening.
09:54 And so there's no way this process doesn't happen without some
09:58 degree of communication involved.
10:00 And so it is happening now.
10:02 Can the, do they try and keep it separate enough that the NCAA comes in and
10:06 does some kind of investigation?
10:08 They're not able to find that.
10:10 Well, the problem is, is that the NCAA has done so little, has had so little
10:18 involvement in this from the get go.
10:22 I'm not sure how much of these rules are really getting followed
10:25 anyway in the first place.
10:26 And so it's either way, the bottom line is those lines of communication are there.
10:33 And rule in Nebraska can't make the financial offer.
10:37 Correct.
10:38 It comes from the, the, whatever the collective itself is.
10:43 Now that even being said, though, I know there's the whole tampering thing.
10:51 It happens.
10:52 I mean, there's schools that do reach out to contacts of players, whether it's
10:59 their high school coaches, family members, things like that to find out like, Hey,
11:06 is so-and-so actually happy at such and such place?
11:09 If he's not, yeah, we'd be, we were totally interested if they jump in
11:14 the portal we're offering them.
11:15 That kind of communication happens.
11:18 That answer your question Zach?
11:22 Yeah.
11:22 And I guess I got one more to piggyback off that based on rule coming back to
11:26 college after being in NFL and everything changing like this, do you think it's a
11:32 doubt?
11:32 Do you think it's a downside for, for a coach to come back like that after things
11:36 have changed and him trying to, you know, learn the times, the new times of NIL, not
11:45 having the experience in it.
11:47 Saying that he wants to go do the old school way of just building, which is,
11:50 there's no problem with that.
11:51 But at some point you're going to have to do things a little bit different to keep
11:56 up with all these schools that you see that are always in the running for certain
12:03 players.
12:03 And Nebraska is not one of those schools that you always see.
12:09 That's always, you know, looking after, looking at these, let's say a quarterback,
12:15 for example.
12:16 You know what, can I jump in there for just a second?
12:18 Absolutely.
12:19 My assumption is that it is tougher for a guy like Matt Ruhle when you consider
12:26 where he's at now compared to when he went to Temple.
12:28 Temple's recruiting a certain level of player and they're not really going up
12:32 against top level schools to get those certain level players.
12:36 Just an assumption on my part.
12:37 At Nebraska, in order for Nebraska to compete on the field against the Big Ten
12:42 that they joined and now the new Big Ten with these Pac-12 schools coming in, he
12:47 can't recruit, and I don't want to say it's easier, but he can't recruit at an
12:51 easier level, at a lower level player, because if he wants to compete on the
12:54 field in the conference he's in now, he's got to compete with those same schools
12:59 when it comes to recruiting.
13:00 So for me, my assumption from being around this stuff forever, it's more
13:05 difficult now.
13:06 I mean, if he had been, if he had stayed in college at Baylor, maybe came to
13:10 Nebraska, then it's a different deal.
13:11 He's used to it.
13:12 But boy, I just think this is not a completely different ball of wax, but I
13:18 think there's differences enough to where he's probably thinking behind closed
13:22 doors sometimes, this isn't what it was 20 years ago or 10 years ago when he was
13:26 coaching the Temple I wasn't trying to recruit.
13:28 Yeah, but when he was at Baylor, I mean, Ruhle's trying to compete against
13:33 Oklahoma and Texas and A&M and Texas Tech.
13:37 Okie State, I mean, that's the lineup of guys he's got to recruit against.
13:41 And so it's, I mean, in terms of the quality of opponent, I'm not
13:47 sure that's changed much.
13:49 You're going to have to win.
13:52 You're going to have to have the money to do it.
13:54 Nebraska, I think is reasonably well positioned.
13:57 I would agree with that.
13:58 For a school of Nebraska size, location, and the state they're in, it's
14:05 still have a weird amount of, like a weirdly high amount of NIL dollars to
14:10 shell out.
14:11 Well, you mentioned like Baylor, he had Texas.
14:15 I mean, there are the state of Texas.
14:18 Yeah.
14:18 There are really, really good players who never get recruited as, you know, Rob
14:21 by, by Texas or A&M there's a whole lot of good players out there that can turn.
14:26 You know, a rice program into a legitimate eight and four team, a
14:31 lot of good players out there that can turn, you know, a rice program into a
14:35 legitimate eight and four team almost every year.
14:38 So I think that matters also because at Baylor, he had such, so many players
14:43 he could choose from.
14:44 I agree with that.
14:45 I guess my, you know, the, the, the corollary argument would be the fact
14:50 that I think he still has Texas.
14:52 I mean, that's one of the things that he and his staff have talked about
14:56 consistently.
14:58 Texas is that Matt rules, one of their guides, he's one of the guys that Texas
15:03 high school coaches liked, felt like they had a good relationship with, and to this
15:09 day, continue to have that.
15:11 And I think that you're, I think that still matters.
15:16 I mean, I think that's still there.
15:17 So I'm not sure.
15:18 I don't know if going from Baylor to Nebraska changes that.
15:22 I mean, you've got Carolina there, the blip in Carolina, they're in the middle.
15:27 Now, the other thing is in terms of a guy that wants to be a developmental guy and
15:32 pull these guys out of high school, it's the same dynamic.
15:36 I mean, if you're a high, if you're a four or five star high school kid versus a,
15:42 versus a big name portal kid, it's the same dynamic.
15:50 You, you're still going to have the.
15:54 I did like what he said today is that, uh, and, and there's a dynamic there, but he
15:58 also said with the NIL, he wants to take care of his current players as opposed to
16:02 somebody coming in because you don't need a divided locker room.
16:05 Money can divide locker rooms.
16:06 Yeah.
16:07 So I liked that.
16:08 He said, you want to take care of the guys that are there.
16:11 Hey, Zach, thanks for the phone call, man.
16:13 We appreciate it.
16:13 Yeah.
16:14 All right.
16:14 I appreciate the divided, the, the taking care of the, your current players.
16:20 That's probably in my opinion, a bigger deal than whether you're in support,
16:26 you're a portal guy or you're a high school recruiting and developmental guy.
16:31 The biggest change I think for a lot of these coaches is how much you've
16:37 got to re recruit your own people.
16:39 Hey, Rob, Doug, Chris wants to know if that's a Coors Light, by the way.
16:42 What was that?
16:46 There was.
16:46 I heard the crack.
16:48 I wasn't sure what it was.
16:49 Yeah.
16:50 Okay.
16:50 Good.
16:51 Dude.
16:52 Werewolves.
16:53 I'm scared of them.
16:54 Silver bullets.
16:55 Jay.
16:55 Hey, is that your, what you were going to say something by the way?
16:59 Coors Light.
17:00 That that's my, like his garage beer.
17:04 That's my light.
17:05 I can have to feel rehydrated and we're good for the night.
17:10 I do my, I do my Coors Lights.
17:12 I still do after all these years, I'm going vodka soda tonight.
17:16 So that's, that's heavy.
17:18 Yeah.
17:19 Hey, if you want to work with Scott Spritzer, text the word doc, talk to
17:23 the number two nine zero two two, and get a free $60 trial of the premium
17:26 member picks from Scott or visit doc sports.com and sign up for the free 60
17:30 on the upper left-hand side of the website.
17:32 And just because college football is coming to an end, doesn't mean you
17:35 can't continue to work with Scott.
17:36 He does NBA, NHL, you name it.
17:38 He can do it.
17:39 I he's probably even in on the, uh, on the Korean baseball league.
17:43 Aren't you?
17:44 Scott?
17:44 Uh, not, not since COVID.
17:47 I'm going to leave that alone, but, uh, I do, I do everything else.
17:50 Basically.
17:51 No, um, haven't done as much soccer since major league soccer, uh, season
17:55 ended, but we'll be back at it when the league starts up again, next April or May.
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18:28 So we are diving into the college football conference
18:31 championship games tonight.
18:32 Let's take a look at the, uh, the games we'll be, uh, previewing.
18:36 And we're going to stick with the PAC 12, the big 12, the SEC, the ACC, and the.
18:43 Big 10.
18:43 So we're going to kick things off on a Friday night.
18:46 Uh, the PAC 12 is going to be up.
18:49 This has been a resurgence year for the PAC 12, right?
18:52 I mean, the PAC 12, uh, is going away as we know it for you.
18:56 You got two of those teams, uh, Oregon and Washington.
18:59 They're gonna be part of the big 10 next year, and they are going to make, uh,
19:02 their headway in the PAC 12 championship game Friday night on ABC Oregon, which
19:07 lost to Washington earlier in the season, a nine to one lead in the game.
19:11 Earlier in the season, a nine and a half points favorite the over under on this
19:15 game, 66 Scott, you know, I was asked on a show that I did today, downtown Las Vegas
19:20 on that, on the Musburger network visa that, uh, they were asking me about this
19:24 contest and they were saying, wow, boy, nine and a half, that was a lot of points.
19:28 Some places 10, you know, before the games were played last weekend, I look at those
19:33 power ratings and then looked at it again on Sunday night after everybody's completed
19:37 their week in a football and I made it nine.
19:40 I mean, that's more of my power rating said that game should be.
19:43 So it's right where it should be.
19:44 Now, if I'm right there, it does.
19:47 My power ratings are my first step out of like seven or eight keys.
19:51 And we've talked about a bunch of them over the course of the football season.
19:54 The power rated is the first thing I look at.
19:56 It doesn't always mean that my power ratings half a point off or right on the
20:00 number, it doesn't mean I'm not going to play the game.
20:03 So, but I did, you know, want to let everybody know that the number's not
20:06 there to try to say, Hey, we're going to try to trap people into, uh, taking
20:10 Washington here and all those points behind the counter, we're going to clean
20:13 up because Oregon's going to win.
20:14 There's those trap things are goofy.
20:16 That's that doesn't really happen.
20:17 Uh, it's just where it should be power rated.
20:20 So that's where the line is.
20:21 Uh, if you go back to the regular season game, which Washington won 36 33 and they
20:25 won it late, they had to convert a fourth down to get that final touchdown.
20:29 Um, you know, if you watched it, just throwing everything out emotionally, any
20:35 bets one of us might have on Washington to win the national title, you sat there
20:39 and you go, okay, Oregon was the better team and probably should have won the
20:44 game, but they didn't.
20:45 And that's something that kind of, you know, I look back at that and I thought,
20:49 all right, Oregon to me looked like the better team in that game.
20:51 Looked like they probably would have won six out of 10 meetings if they
20:55 played 10 times against each other.
20:57 Uh, here's what's going on for me right now.
21:00 And the reason I played the under thus far, which it was 66 and a half, it's now 66.
21:05 We saw that first meeting that came within a minute or so of staying under the total
21:09 took a fourth down conversion, took that late touchdown by Washington to get over.
21:13 Uh, the total was at 62 with about 95 seconds to go.
21:17 And then they get the final touchdown.
21:18 I'm looking at Washington's offense over the last few games, especially the last
21:23 two games, 528 total yards combined in the last two games, only 5.2 yards per play.
21:30 Now they've talked about maybe Pennix was under the weather.
21:33 You might've had the flu, some bumps and bruises, but by now
21:35 everybody's got bumps and bruises.
21:37 Oregon games, their defense is getting better throughout the course of the season.
21:41 They haven't topped this particular total in the last three games.
21:45 And if you look at their defense, they held the last three opponents to 79
21:49 yards rushing on 3.6 yards per carry.
21:52 The average is 323 total yards per game on 5.3 yards per play.
21:57 That's all they've allowed in their last three games.
22:00 And I might've mentioned it on last week's show.
22:02 We saw a 31 to seven final against Oregon state.
22:05 If you look at what Nick's has done and you chart every single pass, excuse me,
22:09 that he's made throughout the course of this 2023 campaign, you'll see that over
22:14 60%, it's about 65, about 65% of his passes traveled less than 10 yards in the air.
22:20 It's all those slants, those diagram plays, get those ultra quick receivers on the run,
22:25 lead them so they don't have to wait for the football and make the catch and
22:28 get, yeah, get yards after catch.
22:30 So it's not like they're going to be throwing the ball downfield, way
22:33 downfield all game long.
22:34 And I think it's going to take some sustained drives for these two
22:37 teams to score against each other.
22:39 Now, this is one of those totals.
22:41 When I say under, I also like to say this isn't for the weak hearted.
22:45 Okay.
22:46 Because this could turn into a track beat, but I do believe enough in it that it
22:51 stays under that I made my bet on the under 66 is where it sits right now.
22:55 Yeah.
22:55 This is an interesting game because Oregon's sitting at number five,
22:58 Washington's number four.
23:00 So you would assume in the college football playoff poll that Oregon would,
23:03 would make that jump into number four.
23:05 We're going to get to the big 12 because there's a lot of stuff
23:07 happening here in moving pieces.
23:09 Uh, I was just surprised it was this big of a line, but, uh, uh, it does seem
23:15 that Washington has been living on the edge the last couple of weeks.
23:18 I mean, they, they, they've skirted by a lot of their teams they play.
23:22 Yeah.
23:24 But I mean, if you look at, if you go back and look at that, I mean, the first
23:29 Oregon Washington game, I mean, if you look at the dynamics of that entire game,
23:35 it's I go back and look at that and it's one of those like, man,
23:39 how did Oregon lose that game?
23:41 And so now it's one of those things you look at.
23:45 I thought Washington was probably playing its best football of the
23:50 season at the time they played Oregon.
23:52 And I thought Oregon, I don't want to say gave the game away, but I mean,
23:57 there were some mistakes made, they had some things that went against them in
24:01 that game that I thought cost them the game.
24:04 And I'm looking at this now just going, okay, Washington has not been playing
24:08 as well now as I thought they did earlier in the year, Oregon has continued to play
24:13 well, and I think this is, you know, Scott, you said six out of 10, and I know
24:16 you're talking gamblers numbers there in your head.
24:19 That's I mean, that that's betting math.
24:21 In my mind, this is a team where if Oregon plays Washington nine times
24:27 out of 10 or plays Washington in 10 games, they win nine times out of 10.
24:32 You know what it reminds you mentioned that Rob, where you know what it reminds
24:36 me of 1999 when Nebraska went to Texas in the regular season, Corral Buckalter
24:42 and Dan Alexander fumbled the game away essentially, and then Texas and Nebraska
24:47 met again for the big 12 championship.
24:49 And Nebraska destroyed them.
24:51 Wasn't even close.
24:52 Yeah.
24:53 So it does remind me of 1999 a little bit.
24:56 So yeah, I think it's gonna be an interesting game.
24:58 Uh, next up is a one to really keep an eye on.
25:01 It's the big 12 championship game, Saturday at 11 o'clock in the morning.
25:04 This is an on ABC, Texas, a 15 and a half point favored over Oklahoma state.
25:09 The over under at 55 Scott.
25:11 The reason I said this is interesting.
25:12 Texas has beaten Bama.
25:14 It has one loss on the year.
25:16 If it's sitting at number six in the college football playoff poll, they have
25:21 to, they got to kick the shit out of Oklahoma state or they're not going to get
25:25 in at all. Well, that's the thing there.
25:27 You know, you look at like, we'll talk about Michigan in a bit, but we'll
25:30 talk about like Oregon, Washington, Oregon doesn't need style points.
25:33 They just need to beat Washington.
25:35 Texas needs a style points against this opponent.
25:38 That's all there is to it.
25:39 By the way, real quick notes, since we're talking Texas, you were talking
25:42 Texan, Nebraska.
25:43 Uh, I did some work with John Makavic a few years ago.
25:46 And, uh, we talked about like when he went forward on fourth down and then the
25:49 one championship game and all that kind of stuff, his mind is still as sharp as
25:53 a razor. And he talks about how he and, you know, the Nebraska coaching staff
25:58 afterwards, how Osborne was like shaking his head about, you know, some of that
26:01 stuff that happened when he went forward on fourth down and how that game played
26:04 out. But I just wanted to mention that he's still around John Makavic.
26:07 Uh, last time we met, it was about a year and a half or so ago here on the strip
26:11 at dinner together.
26:12 And, uh, just listening to the way he coached that team, you're talking about a
26:17 champagne coach in a beer drinking city.
26:22 And it was just interesting to hear the differences between his personality and
26:26 the school that he was coaching, but good stuff anyway.
26:29 Yeah, they need style points in this one.
26:31 And, you know, the concern about two things, if you're looking at Oklahoma State, I'm
26:35 just kind of checking up the lines right now.
26:36 Everything is that now one, you got Alan Bowman who makes mistakes, 11 picks, only
26:41 10 touchdowns thrown this season, six interceptions he's thrown in Okie State's
26:46 last three games.
26:47 And another thing, Oklahoma State State's defense is bad.
26:50 I mean, statistically speaking against the run, against the pass, total yards allowed.
26:56 They're one of the worst in college football, and they've allowed 109 points in the
27:00 last three games combined, two of which came against BYU and Houston.
27:04 BYU's 23 points per game.
27:06 If you don't include their, if you do include what they did against Oak State,
27:09 Houston's 24 points per game.
27:11 Those two teams are scoring at will against Oklahoma State the last couple of weeks.
27:15 Then you look at Texas, 15 seconds and four points from the undefeated season, being in
27:20 the top four right now as we speak.
27:22 They had a minus three turnover ratio in that game against Oklahoma.
27:26 And as far as yours, I don't know, man, 70% passer, 17 touchdowns, five picks.
27:31 I don't think he's going to make any mistakes.
27:33 Plus he's got Brooks who can pick him up and put him down 1100 plus yards on the
27:37 season.
27:37 So balanced offense, fifth against the run, Oak State's defense could pass.
27:42 Texas could be had through the air at times.
27:44 So you've always got that chance if Texas opens up a lead for that old hated backdoor
27:49 cover, if you're playing the favorite, I worry about that.
27:52 I think Gundy will have his team prepared.
27:54 You also have to worry in a game like this is Texas going to be so hell bent on looking
27:58 pretty and looking sexy to get into that final four that they miss a couple of things
28:02 and make a couple of mistakes that they normally wouldn't.
28:04 I'm going to say Texas ends up winning this game by 17.
28:08 I have not made a bet on it.
28:09 I probably will not make a bet on this game.
28:11 The interesting part is Texas fans are pissed off because Gundy was named the big 12 coach
28:17 of the year today, and they, they look at it as a total slight for the big 12 that
28:20 Sarkeesian didn't get it.
28:21 I think that's even more motivation for Texas.
28:24 Absolutely.
28:25 Well, he's going to the sec.
28:26 Why should they vote him as the coach of the year?
28:28 Right?
28:28 True.
28:29 Wait, so this game, wait, so Gundy got big 12 coach of the year.
28:35 Yes.
28:36 I mean, that's as bad as David Braun getting the big 10 coach of the year.
28:40 Okay.
28:41 You and I discussed this.
28:43 Braun had that hands down.
28:45 Should have gotten it.
28:46 Not hands down.
28:47 Not, nevermind.
28:48 We're not going to, we are going to buy the last one.
28:50 Well, here's the thing.
28:51 Number one.
28:52 Okay.
28:53 So two things.
28:54 Number one, how did Matt Campbell not get it?
28:57 He loses like half his starters before the season starts.
29:03 And number two.
29:05 What?
29:07 I mean, they went seven and five.
29:09 With that roster?
29:14 But they still went seven and five.
29:15 So I mean, I, they weren't going to give it to anybody from Oklahoma, Texas.
29:19 Gundy got to the championship game.
29:21 Most, this is the reason I'm surprised Kirk Ferris didn't get into the big 10.
29:25 Usually if you get to a championship game, you're a coach of the year.
29:28 Right?
29:28 I mean, that's kind of like, I get it.
29:30 I'm just saying in terms of coaching jobs, I thought light pulled climate or
29:33 Campbell all did a better coaching.
29:35 But my other, I guess my question for Scott is you mentioned the four point
29:41 difference in the three point in the three turnovers in that Oklahoma, Texas game.
29:47 If Texas wins that game against Oklahoma, where are they sitting right now?
29:54 Probably in your opinion, fourth or the worst, it would be, uh, you're still
29:59 going to get Michigan, Georgia, and Oregon ahead of Texas, but Texas, a very
30:03 strong number four, if they get past Oklahoma and maybe they're undefeated
30:08 at that point, right?
30:10 Hell you can make the argument for number.
30:12 I mean, they've got more wins against top 25 teams than anybody in the top eight
30:16 right now, plus you got to win at Alabama.
30:18 That, that goes a long way.
30:20 I think that's a lot of street cred.
30:21 I I'm with Scott.
30:23 I think they'd be number three.
30:24 I think Michigan would be number two in Georgia, number one.
30:26 But I mean, they, but the weird thing is they need style points now.
30:30 They definitely need style.
30:31 I hate this as an argument.
30:33 We need a 16 team playoff.
30:35 There you go.
30:36 And I hate trying, I hate handicapping games where the team is clear cut
30:41 choice better than the other squad.
30:42 And if it was, you know, week 11 or week 10 or nine of the regular season,
30:46 you're laying the 15 points, but you got to factor all that BS into it.
30:50 Like, no, they got to go out.
30:52 They got to win, you know, 49 to 14 to impress, you know, the, the
30:56 committee and all that kind of stuff.
30:57 So it does, it adds an extra little wrench into the system when it comes
31:01 to the handicap of those games.
31:03 Uh, let's go to the SEC.
31:05 This is, uh, this is a battle we're getting used to seeing.
31:08 It's a three o'clock game on CBS.
31:10 It's Alabama and Georgia, Georgia, five and a half point favorite.
31:14 You're over under at 54 and a half Bama didn't do it.
31:16 It's itself.
31:17 Any favors last week, Scott, with that close call with, uh, with Auburn.
31:21 I thought they'd have a little bit easier time with Auburn.
31:24 And it wasn't just based on what happened the previous week when Auburn
31:27 got spanked by, uh, by New Mexico state.
31:29 Um, it was a situation even before that game where I had Alabama a little
31:34 bit bigger favorite than what they were going into the Georgia game.
31:37 And again, they did another miracle, man.
31:39 It's crazy.
31:40 Another miracle finished to get that victory.
31:42 So, you know, listen, this line, by the way, for this game has been
31:45 as low as four and as high as six.
31:47 And right now it's kind of sitting, like you said, five and a
31:50 half, couple of fives out there.
31:51 I got about 20 books on my line service on my screen.
31:54 A lot of folks were, you know, back on the bandwagon going into last
31:58 week's game when it came down to Bama.
31:59 And those same folks are jumping off the bandwagon after they almost
32:02 got beat by the Auburn Tigers.
32:04 Here's an interesting note.
32:05 SEC title games, 13, four and one to the over the last 18.
32:10 Indoors.
32:11 If a conference game is being played indoors over the last 60 conference
32:15 title games, 56% of those games that are being played indoors have gone over the
32:20 total.
32:21 So you've got a couple of things working for you there when you want to talk
32:23 about this total sitting at 54 and a half.
32:25 Interesting thing to watch.
32:27 Georgia gave up five yards per carry to Tennessee and Georgia Tech the last two
32:31 weeks and Bama has that running game now churning out six yards per pop.
32:35 So a potential, you know, relative weakness in the Georgia defense may get
32:40 exploited and keep this game closed for Alabama this week.
32:44 Bama 34 points or more in four of the last five games and the game they didn't
32:48 hit 34 was last week, but they did gain 6.63 yards per play against Auburn.
32:55 You look at Georgia, 40 points per game, the last seven games on offense.
32:59 The initial move on the total this week went down and then it started to inch
33:04 its way back up.
33:05 I like the over this one guys.
33:07 I haven't pulled a trigger on the side yet.
33:09 I have made a little bet on the over.
33:11 I might get involved in the next couple of days as I kind of like to see where
33:16 the, the number is moving.
33:18 If it's going to move at all.
33:19 I really wanted to see six and a half and I was thinking about coming back to the
33:23 underdog.
33:23 I'm not sure we're going to get there.
33:26 I'm really concerned as a potential Georgia batter again with their run
33:30 defense against Tennessee and Java tech and the way Alabama is running the
33:32 football.
33:33 I also have always squeamish when it comes to a team that everybody was jumping on
33:37 said, Oh boy, Alabama is back to be in Alabama.
33:39 And then because of one game, recent history, recent recency bias, as we like
33:44 to call it, all of a sudden, all those people have jumped ship.
33:47 Alabama is going to get trashed.
33:48 They're going to get destroyed.
33:50 So I'm kind of caught in the middle of that right now, as far as the side, I do
33:54 think the total goes over.
33:56 How, I mean, you look at that one game, you look at that Auburn game.
33:59 How much does the fact that this is, I mean, for all, for Auburn, this
34:06 is like their game every year.
34:07 When you've got a huge rivalry game as a Nebraska fan, I don't think we
34:14 understand certain rivalries nationwide.
34:18 1995, I went down to Gene Stallings is the head coach at Alabama.
34:23 I go down and watch Alabama and Southern miss at Burr at Legion field.
34:27 Um, and I'm just walking around and I I'm talking to Alabama fans.
34:33 And I, and my question was how big is the Alabama Auburn rivalry?
34:39 And he goes, sir, let me tell you something.
34:42 If Jesus Christ himself showed up at the Auburn, Alabama gang, they would tell him
34:51 to get the fuck off the field and let us finish this game before we have to do the
34:56 good, good, good heaven.
34:57 I mean, that, that was the exact word that I'm like, Oh, that's a pretty big deal.
35:02 Then it's a pretty big deal.
35:03 Surprising.
35:05 We're right on a town for asking how big of a deal it was.
35:07 Say you're an outsider without saying you're an outsider.
35:11 Ask that question.
35:12 Well, okay.
35:13 So here, but here's my question, Scott, when you've got true rivalry games like
35:19 this, and I mean, I'm looking at like, we, like I was up watching Florida, Florida
35:24 state this weekend, you look at Auburn, Alabama, I mean, what kind of, I mean,
35:31 there's a lot of Auburn, Alabama games where one team was by far and away, not
35:38 good, the other one was a fair, was very much a better team.
35:42 How much does that affect these games?
35:45 I mean, in terms of how Vegas is looking at this, the, the, the number
35:49 how much your handicappers looking at that, the, the rivalry aspect when it is
35:55 a true rivalry, yeah, this isn't a, you know, manufactured Wisconsin, Nebraska,
36:00 Iowa, Nebraska rivalry.
36:02 Exactly.
36:03 This is hate on both sides.
36:06 And I do, I do tend to look, I'll start my handicap, obviously with my power
36:09 rating, then the next thing I'll do is I'll start trying to figure out, you
36:14 know, if a team is able to bring that emotion that they have in the game that
36:18 they're going to play onto the field, if there's enough talent, one thing we know
36:21 about Auburn, I don't, you know, they lost to Jerry kill.
36:23 I mean, he's a fantastic coach.
36:24 Should've never lost like that.
36:25 Maybe you lose, but you don't lose by getting blown out on your field.
36:28 They were certainly looking ahead, but I look at the talent and I'm like, you know,
36:32 the talent's not that far off right now, this season between Bama and Auburn, and
36:36 that's not a knock against Alabama.
36:38 And, and so I start looking at that and then I look to see if I think the line's
36:41 too big.
36:42 So it does become a factor because I'm looking, if the team is halfway decent,
36:46 I'm looking first, I want to back the dog.
36:49 Now find stuff that gets me off the dog when it comes to a heated rivalry, like
36:53 the iron bowl.
36:54 I got one experience.
36:56 I, I, I wasn't a player obviously, but I got an experience in the Nebraska, Oklahoma
37:01 rivalry in the seventies, real quick story.
37:03 We like to throw these at you every once in a while.
37:04 I'm going to be that old man sipping on his, you know, homemade lemonade on his
37:09 front porch, telling stories to my grandkids one day.
37:12 And she better not have one for about another 10 years, my daughter.
37:15 But anyway, so we're driving down to Texas.
37:19 I got some family in Texas.
37:20 My dad's driving.
37:21 I'm probably, this is probably like 1977 or something like that.
37:25 I'm maybe 10 years old.
37:26 My mom and dad in the front of the car.
37:28 I'm in the back bump, big old bumper sticker across the back bumper, go big red,
37:31 Nebraska, all this kind of stuff.
37:33 Dad was a huge Husker fan.
37:34 And so we pull up to this little small town in Oklahoma, real small town.
37:40 Got to get gas.
37:41 The parking lot for the gas station is dirt.
37:44 There's no, no asphalt, nothing.
37:45 It's dirt.
37:46 A couple of big boys come walking out.
37:48 My dad goes walking in to the gas station.
37:51 I swear to God, my mom goes, and they were saying Nebraska, huh?
37:54 And they're doing all this kind of stuff, a little bit of an accent.
37:56 My mom said, when he walked in the gas station, if he's not out in five minutes,
38:01 we're out of here, we're leaving him.
38:02 So they were going back and forth about Nebraska, Oklahoma, and they had that
38:07 kind of look on their face.
38:08 Like we're making you think we're joking.
38:10 We ain't joking.
38:11 I did get to see a little bit of that.
38:13 And that still goes on of course, in Alabama with the Iron Bowl.
38:16 But yeah, getting back to your question, I want to take the dog usually if the
38:20 talent gap isn't that big.
38:22 And I didn't last week in the game.
38:24 I couldn't do it.
38:25 I couldn't pull the trigger.
38:26 And I was at the UNLV game, which I didn't see any difference between this
38:31 year's UNLV and the last 30 years in that particular game.
38:34 And I only watched about, I'm going to say the final 15 minutes of game that I
38:38 recorded Alabama and Auburn.
38:40 But again, I'm rattling on and on here.
38:42 I would look to take the dog first in a, in a true huge rivalry matchup.
38:47 As long as that dog's not a two and 10 team and Auburn certainly far
38:51 from that talent wise.
38:52 You know, probably the least sexy game this weekend is the ACC championship.
38:58 It's a, and Rob's going to be watching this cause his daughter goes to Florida
39:01 state, Rob, we got some shit on YouTube today because you weren't wearing
39:05 Nebraska gear during the podcast.
39:06 You were wearing your Florida state thing.
39:08 I still don't understand that why people think we have to wear gear.
39:11 Well, you know, I'm never going to wear gear, but they're like,
39:14 why is it Rob wearing gear?
39:15 He's wearing gear, just wearing Florida state gear.
39:18 Uh, they took it on a Louisville and I, that's how I say it right.
39:21 Louisville, uh, Florida state, a two and a half point favorite, the over
39:24 under 47 and a half Louisville got beat last week by Kentucky as well.
39:28 Listen, I mean, first of all, I was expected to see a Florida state
39:33 Jersey this week, so I was a little bit disappointed, but you pulled out the
39:36 Augustana and who can argue with that?
39:38 Um, Louisville is my favorite team this year and I'll tell you why.
39:42 I, my second biggest play I've made this entire season came before the season
39:46 began, not a game, actual game.
39:48 And that was over eight wins on Louisville.
39:50 And so we hit that a couple of weeks ago.
39:53 It was pretty easy.
39:53 Went two and one on futures.
39:55 I had Louisville over eight.
39:56 I won wake forest under six and a half, and I lost a small plan
40:00 in Wisconsin, uh, over eight and a half.
40:02 I guess I fell for the, um, the Luke fickle here.
40:06 We come, we're going to be top 10 this year, but ended up going
40:08 two and one, the biggest play was Louisville.
40:10 So I've been a very big fan of this team since before the season began.
40:13 Uh, Florida state's top four, obviously, if they've got Jordan, it's
40:17 as simple as that Jordan, uh, Travis.
40:19 And what a bummer for him not to be able to play.
40:21 I'm watching Rodemaker a little bit last week, fill it in for him and his
40:25 decision-making didn't look great.
40:27 And I don't mean that as an insult.
40:28 It just looks like an inexperienced quarterback who doesn't have
40:32 that game time under his belt.
40:34 Like let's say for instance, Travis would have to make decisions right
40:38 when they had to be made, there was like a little split second hesitation.
40:41 He goes 12 for 25 and he also got banged up.
40:44 He got hit hard in the noggin came back and played a little bit later.
40:48 We're not sure really how healthy Rodemaker is right now.
40:51 And he didn't look great when he was healthy in Florida.
40:54 Could have won that game.
40:55 Uh, boy, it's, you know, they're a well-coached team, Florida state, but
40:58 Brom equals that out the coaching situation, the talent level still
41:03 lies with Florida state, but guys, I think Louisville is going to knock
41:06 him off here and I just think it comes down to the quarterback situation.
41:08 Wow.
41:09 Out there.
41:10 I think Florida state wins by 10, 14 points.
41:13 There you go, Rob.
41:15 Yeah.
41:15 How does that make you feel?
41:16 He picked, he picked the upset.
41:17 Damn.
41:18 I mean, my emotions are still with Florida state.
41:21 I thought Rodemaker came.
41:23 It was one of those things where I thought his decision-making
41:27 late in the game improved a ton.
41:29 I mean, I thought he looked way better in the fourth quarter than
41:34 he did the third, second, first.
41:36 He's definitely not Jordan Travis.
41:40 I will say that Jordan Travis is a game changer.
41:43 And that's one of those guys that, um, if you look at him just from a
41:47 number standpoint, the fact that he, that he hasn't gotten the Heisman
41:52 recognition that I think he deserves is kind of impressive because the numbers
41:56 are there and it's paid huge dividends for Florida state over the last two years.
42:02 So I, I don't know, this is a game that scares me because I also think Louisville
42:07 sitting here, go looking at that Kentucky game going, crap, we just lost
42:11 our big rivalry game of the year.
42:13 We we've got to kind of, it's it that's like a refocus loss.
42:18 Could this, could this be a situation where it's the least sexy game, but end up
42:22 being the best game of the championship games?
42:24 Oh, I totally think it could be.
42:26 I mean, I think you've got two teams that are both capable of playing
42:30 really, really good football.
42:32 Um, I, you know, the, the Alabama Georgia one, I think that one's closer than what
42:39 people think it's going to end up being, but this is one where I think you've got
42:43 two teams that are capable of putting up points of playing some really good
42:46 football, um, and could be the most fun out of all of these games.
42:51 Bothers me a bit because, and I agree with you.
42:53 It's like, what's Ron a banker got hit in the noggin.
42:55 He actually seemed to focus better as crazy as that sounds, but the
43:00 nose only had 224 yards last week.
43:02 I had four yards per play, four yards per play, not for Gary.
43:05 That would be scaring me right now.
43:07 If I was a Florida state backer, I think Louisville again, because
43:11 they're equal as far as I have the coaching staffs rated equal in this
43:15 one, Florida state's talent up and down both sides of the line of scrimmage.
43:18 Secondary, all that is above Louisville.
43:20 So there's no doubt about that, except at quarterback.
43:23 And when I went back and I was watching bits and pieces of the game, I thought,
43:26 boy, I don't know, four yards per play.
43:28 That's it.
43:29 So maybe having that game under his belt, Ron a maker with that
43:32 offense, and they know exactly what he can do and cannot do
43:35 helps them out in this game.
43:37 But I just think, and by the way, if I was, if I'm telling people right now,
43:41 if you're saying, what should I do with this game, I have to play this game.
43:44 I would say, take Louisville on the money line, plus a buck 15.
43:47 There's better value with that than taking the two and a half points.
43:50 Yeah, you might get beat.
43:52 You might lose by one, but the value over the course of a long period of time is
43:57 better at plus a buck 15 to win than it is at taking the two and a half points
44:01 and having to lay 11 to win 10.
44:03 All right.
44:04 Where it's let wrap up our games with the big 10 championship.
44:07 Yes, we have to, uh, it's going to be on Fox, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan, a 22
44:17 point favorite, a 22 point favorite in the over under at 35, my God.
44:23 And Scott texted me today.
44:25 I think Scott just likes to rub it in every once in a while.
44:28 That's brutal math right there.
44:31 Well, no, here's, here's, here's where it's really worth.
44:33 I was point total for the first half.
44:35 Rob opened it 0.5.
44:38 Point five and then jumped to what?
44:42 Two and a half Scott.
44:43 I think it's two and a half.
44:45 So folks are thinking they're going to get a field goal.
44:47 Those first two quarters.
44:47 Um, yeah, it's a pretty crazy.
44:50 We were doing a show earlier on Wednesday and we were talking about this game and
44:55 I, I only, I only messy that Travis, when, when Iowa beats Nebraska, which is, you
45:00 know, like I said, every year now, except for last year, but I'm sitting down at
45:04 one of the casinos here, we're doing a show at one of the sports books and they
45:07 said, you know, they, we talked about the side, we talked about the total.
45:10 And I guess in theory, the books are saying with this line in total, Michigan
45:15 29, Iowa six, and I said, Iowa six against Michigan, are they playing six quarters?
45:21 I mean, it's like, sorry, Travis.
45:24 So anyway, I mean, you know, I said this on my show today and that is, listen,
45:28 the only way I will win.
45:30 I I'm a realist.
45:31 I get it right.
45:32 The only way I will wins is if that defense scores twice, three times and a
45:38 special teams play, because the offense isn't going to beat Michigan and Michigan's
45:41 going to have to turn the ball over.
45:42 That's the only way.
45:43 I know we can't win coach of the year, but I'll make an argument with Ference
45:48 because he has nothing to work with on offense.
45:51 He's got a, an offensive coordinator who's out the door, uh, who did a terrible
45:55 job while he was in Iowa city.
45:57 He doesn't have a quarterback.
45:58 I mean, a lot of the same situations in Nebraska has when it comes to offense,
46:02 yet they're so fundamentally sound when it comes to not making costly key mistakes.
46:08 And for that reason, I said, I have no problem with Ference being second or third
46:12 of the big 10 coaches when it comes to coach of the year, this team's not 10 and
46:16 two, this is a five and seven team.
46:19 He coached the crap out of this team to get them where they are.
46:21 The defensive coaches, they don't make dumb mistakes.
46:24 He's got basically a third string quarterback starting for him in Deacon
46:28 Hill, 11 for 28 last week, 94 yards.
46:31 They had 57 yards of offense.
46:33 As you guys know, in the second half against Nebraska and two first downs
46:38 found a way to win, took advantage of the other teams and mistakes.
46:41 Problem with Michigan.
46:42 They don't make mistakes under hard ball.
46:44 And boy, I just, they don't need style points.
46:46 That's the cool thing going for Iowa.
46:48 Michigan doesn't need style points, but hard balls a little
46:51 ticked off at the big 10.
46:52 This looks like a 34 to six 38 to seven type of game.
46:58 And Iowa hangs around only if Michigan makes mistakes.
47:02 They haven't made all year.
47:03 I really believe that.
47:04 You know, Rob, this could be one of those games where let's say the
47:07 under hits it under 35, let's say they won like 28, nothing or 28, three.
47:13 Right.
47:13 I, it would be one of those games where you got down.
47:16 You're like, okay, it was probably closer than you thought, but you just felt like
47:19 Michigan kicked the crap out of them.
47:21 You know what I mean?
47:21 It'd be like, yeah, we talked about the Michigan Penn state game and it was
47:27 almost like Michigan didn't scare, didn't care about scoring points.
47:31 There were more concerned about, Hey, we're just going to kind of control
47:34 the time of possession and push all around the field the whole day.
47:38 We don't even score.
47:39 If we, we don't even care if we score a touchdown, we just want
47:43 to shove you all over the place.
47:45 And I could see this being that same kind of game.
47:48 The problem is when I look at this, I mean, you look at what Penn state
47:54 did against Iowa and you look at what Michigan did against Penn state.
47:57 I mean, you've got a couple of, you've got a couple of levels of.
48:03 No, you got more than a couple of levels.
48:06 You've got like four levels.
48:07 I mean, the difference between these two teams is kind of brutal.
48:11 And also, I mean, two years ago, they played each other for the title.
48:14 I was offense was better than this year's offense.
48:16 It's 42 to three final score.
48:18 You know, I mean, Michigan's just going to have to dial it down.
48:21 I think for this to be any kind of a close game, like you said, I could see
48:25 that Travis where it's, you know, 27 to three final and the game is
48:29 not as close as the final score.
48:31 You know, they just continue to wear down Iowa's defense because the
48:35 defense gets zero help from the offense and they end up winning 27.
48:38 They're up 17, three of the half.
48:40 You know, they went 30 to six or something.
48:42 And I, and I don't see Michigan looking past Iowa because Jim Harbaugh said
48:46 a Michigan's America's team right now.
48:48 And they feel like it's, it's Michigan against the world.
48:51 I do.
48:52 I believe they feel like it's come out to Vegas.
48:54 We'll put you on the sideline with the Raiders.
48:56 We'll take you next year.
48:57 Hey, don't forget about bet.
49:00 Fred's a no sweat.
49:01 First bet offer.
49:02 When you sign up with bet, Fred, and make your first wager of $20 or more, you'll
49:04 be matched with a Fred benefit of $105.
49:07 If that bet loses, use the promo code rush.
49:09 That's R U S H all caps.
49:12 So use the promo code or rush the parlay bonus.
49:15 When you place nine football parlays, the 10th parlays on Fred get rewarded
49:18 with up to a $100 Fred bet each week of the pro football season.
49:22 Use the promo code.
49:23 Parlay.
49:24 And if you like what you heard from Scott Spicer tonight, you can work with him.
49:27 One-on-one text the word duck talk to the number two, nine zero two, two, and get a
49:32 free trial of the a $60 premium, uh, member picks from Scott, or you can visit
49:37 doc sports.com center for the three 60 on the upper left hand of the website.
49:43 Scott, we got a question earlier.
49:45 Uh, somebody called me and they were wondering about point or the point
49:48 spreads and he's like, do the books ever lose money?
49:52 I said, well, overall the books probably never lose money, but he didn't
49:56 understand that they could lose a lot on one particular game.
49:59 They can lose money on games.
50:00 Right?
50:00 Sure.
50:01 I mean, you know, every once in a while you'll see on, you know, different TV
50:05 shows, network sports shows, where they talk about Betty now, where they'll say,
50:08 you know, you know, some guy in New York had a $30 bet on a 20 team parlay and it
50:14 paid off and he turned $30 into 180,000 stuff like that.
50:18 Um, you know, there's people in Vegas that have bet seven figures on a game and,
50:22 and one in the past, but it's the books never lose overall, start to finish.
50:28 I mean, you know, if making book was legal, I tell everybody to go do it.
50:35 Because you gotta be pretty dumb to not make money as a bookmaker.
50:38 You really do.
50:39 You gotta be stupid as hell.
50:40 And so, I mean, you really do.
50:42 And, and, uh, if you're at a Mon Paw shop, which I understand it might be going on
50:47 still in Nebraska since they don't have legalized, uh, betting, if you're running
50:50 a Mon Paw shop and you're losing money, dude, get out of the business right now.
50:54 Because, and the bottom line is, is you can adjust lines.
50:57 You know what I mean?
50:58 I got a guy, friend of mine, he's an attorney in North Carolina.
51:01 I've known him for 25 years.
51:03 And he'll call me and he'll say, Hey, you know, what do you like tomorrow?
51:06 I like Oklahoma minus six.
51:08 So he comes back and he calls me and he goes, and then let's say the wind by seven.
51:12 Son of a bitch.
51:14 We, we pushed, I can't believe he gave it, but I'm like, what are you talking about?
51:17 Pushed.
51:17 I'm like, it's six.
51:19 Well, my guy down the street, you know, so I would, I would, I started telling him,
51:25 I go, here's what you do.
51:26 You never say who you want.
51:27 You say to your bookmaker, I shouldn't be saying this stuff, but I'm going to anyway.
51:31 You say to your bookmaker, what's the Alabama Auburn line.
51:35 Then he gives you the line and then you tell them who you want to bet.
51:38 You don't say, Hey, I love Alabama.
51:39 What's the line.
51:40 Cause that line's going up.
51:41 But as far as behind the counters where it's regulated, you know, all over the
51:46 legalized States now, the state of Nevada, all that kind of stuff.
51:49 They don't lose.
51:50 They never, they'll cry poor.
51:51 They love to do that crap.
51:52 I've known Jimmy Vicaro for 30 years.
51:55 And some of those guys that are out here, the different books and they'll whine
51:58 and they'll cry and they'll say, Oh, we had a bad weekend, all the, all the
52:02 teasers in the NFL paid off Monday night.
52:04 Football squares, one, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
52:07 They don't lose money.
52:08 They just love to hear themselves whine.
52:09 They win every single season.
52:11 Now you have individuals.
52:12 I've been one in the past, not so much this year in the past where we beat the
52:16 books individually, you know, and that happens.
52:18 I've had my money rejected at books after having a good run, actually had.
52:23 Um, some bets that have, they've said, no, at the sports books, we're
52:26 not going to take your action.
52:28 My people called was that Vincenti.
52:32 So he's Italian.
52:32 He says, Hey, my people call it would be who've you all to stop
52:36 discussing local shops.
52:38 Oh, I love it.
52:40 Got to be an Omaha boy.
52:41 Brings back the memories.
52:44 I tell you what, we've been doing a show for, I guess, 15 straight weeks.
52:48 Uh, Scott, I, I can't thank you enough for giving up your Wednesday
52:51 nights to spend with Rob and I.
52:53 And Rob, I can't thank you enough for giving up your Wednesday night
52:56 for spending it with Scott and me.
52:58 It's really tough talking sports and drinking beer.
53:00 I mean, I got to tell you, and we do got to thank, uh, our, our phone
53:05 screener and producer Owen justice, who, uh, he hasn't had to
53:09 take many phone calls this year.
53:10 We did have Zach earlier.
53:12 Uh, but, uh, Owen has always been there with us every week.
53:15 So we appreciate that.
53:15 Owen's got a, uh, album release show coming out on, uh, December.
53:19 It was album comes out December 8th.
53:21 The album release shows at Maloney's and council bluffs, Iowa on the 15th.
53:26 Uh, just visit Owen justice music to get your tickets right there.
53:29 So is there a story behind it?
53:31 Was it upstream?
53:32 Right.
53:32 Is that what it's called upstream?
53:33 Yeah.
53:34 Is there, is there a story behind that?
53:35 There may be, he doesn't tell me anything.
53:38 You know, I mean, he, he keeps everything guarded, very close to the chest.
53:42 He, he doesn't, and I've learned Scott.
53:44 It took me, it's taken me about three years.
53:46 Uh, I've learned not to ask questions, right?
53:49 Because I just get pushed back.
53:51 I'm sure there's something that has to do with it, but, uh, I just, I just
53:56 choose not to ask because I'll get told don't worry about it anyway.
54:00 So I just learned that.
54:01 Yeah, that's what I've done.
54:03 All right.
54:05 For Scott's Fritzer for dr.
54:07 Rob's at a scale.
54:07 I'm Travis justice.
54:08 Thank you so much for watching behind the point spread.
54:11 We might be back.
54:13 If I twist Scott's arm, maybe come back for the college football championship
54:17 game or, or maybe even the playoffs, but, uh, we'll, we'll keep you posted on that.
54:21 Uh, so we won't see you for a while.
54:23 Everybody have a great holiday season.
54:25 Merry Christmas.
54:26 And thanks for watching behind the points.
54:28 Spread presented by bed, Fred sports.
54:31 [inaudible].
54:36 (upbeat music)