Rebel's Edge - November 28, 2023
Jon and Pete Najarian join forces to discuss and debate their favorite topics, including the hottest stock-specific news and sports! Today: $PDD, $MU, and the NCAA Transfer Portal
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00:00 Welcome to the Rebel Edge. Pete Najarian and I are going to cover a bunch of topics for you,
00:05 including PDD, a stock that we tagged for unusual activity that then jumped or exploded $15 higher.
00:28 Episode 286, Pete. We're getting after it. We got Jared at the helm and we are ready to
00:34 rock and roll, John. Let's get after it right now. Macro minute, baby. Let's do it. Macro minute. I'm
00:39 going to say I've seen a lot of headlines lately, Pete, about November rally running on fumes.
00:45 I think they're kind of getting what we were saying about whistling past the graveyard, Pete.
00:51 That's a possibility. I'm going to tell you that Governor Waller, one of the Fed Govs,
00:55 is talking about how they are right on target and they are going right after that inflation target
01:01 of 2%. Sounds like it's pretty confident. I don't know if you want to be that confident. I think you
01:06 maybe want to back off a little bit and let's see how this actually plays out. But either way, John,
01:11 I think that is changing things a little bit and people are listening right now.
01:14 Yeah, certainly are. Let's dive into fantastic futures, Pete.
01:20 Let's do it.
01:20 Fantastic futures.
01:25 Sounds like we need to let that guy out of the box more often.
01:28 Boy, I have a hard time with this one, Pete. I mean, gold is up another 30 bucks.
01:36 I think it's $2,042 to the ounce and we've still got the OPEC Plus pushing out there,
01:48 meeting till the 30th. But now we've got the big bounce back for energy.
01:53 How about the yo-yo we're seeing in crude oil right now, John? I mean, literally,
01:57 we started the day at the very beginning of the day or last night, $75.60. We went all the way
02:02 down to $74.60, dropped a buck and then bang, $2 higher, back up to $76.40. Really interesting to
02:09 see the way crude is trading right now. I still think there might be a bounce. We've seen a little
02:14 bit more energy being bought of late. We'll see if that plays out. But certainly crude is looking
02:20 back up towards that $80 level. Maybe we get there, maybe we don't. But right now, over $76,
02:25 pretty strong. Yeah, absolutely. You know what else is strong today, Pete? PDD. PDD is a big
02:34 e-commerce platform that helps push something that those of you who are on Instagram or TikTok a lot
02:42 see all the time, Timo. This is like a retailer that makes things incredibly cheaply in China,
02:51 puts them online, and PDD is really responsible for getting it out there, Pete. And that stock
02:58 exploded to the upside today, beating revenue expectations, jumping up big. They basically
03:06 pulled in about 68 billion yuan versus 54 billion yuan was expected. And you know what? We had
03:15 unusual option activity throughout the day, and those bets have paid off. Paid off in a big way,
03:23 John. I mean, a big way. This stock absolutely flew to the upside. You talked about 15%, 18%,
03:29 whatever the number, 52-week highs for sure, pushing on that 140 level. I mean, this is a
03:34 stock absolutely ripping to the upside. And why is that? Well, when you beat on your revenues,
03:40 and you put up 9.6 billion, and you were just talking about it in the yuan, I'm going to put
03:44 it back into dollars. But up 94% year over year on revenue, that's a big number. I don't know how
03:51 often we see anything like that. You look at their sheets in terms of the balance sheets,
03:56 they are pristine. They've got money, they've got the cash, and they're killing it right now.
04:01 I would not want to be a person out there trying to short this name, that's for sure. I think this
04:06 thing's got a little bit more gas in the tank. - Yeah, and it's a frequent flyer on our unusual
04:11 activity, folks. Several times this year we've had that one. And you want to go check it out,
04:17 go to marketrebellion.com/bang, and you can check out some of the offers that we still have,
04:25 even after Cyber Monday. All right, let's talk about ARGX, Pete, because we talk all the time
04:33 about clinical stage biotechs, and how important it is to get through phase one, phase two, phase
04:39 three, and still have enough money left that you can bring the product to market. Well, these guys,
04:45 they were doing a preliminary study, and it didn't meet various endpoints. And for that reason,
04:51 it's down 9%, and it's a $400 stock. So that's a pretty big drop. - It's a big drop. It's ugly.
04:58 The stock's been as high as 550. Last I looked, John, it was closer to 450. It's got about 50
05:04 bucks it's taken off today. It's definitely getting hammered to the downside. Here's the
05:07 biggest problem I see. When you go into these trials, and you go up against the placebo,
05:13 and you can't beat the placebo, that could be a problem for sure. And that's kind of what we're
05:20 seeing here. And that's why I think this is such a dramatic move to the downside. When you look at
05:24 this company, they've got plenty of different other drugs and so forth, treatments within that
05:30 pipeline. The problem is, most of them are fairly early stage. So interesting to watch. They've got
05:36 the balance sheet to be able to hang on. But this thing's definitely getting pumped and getting hit
05:40 hard today. I wouldn't want to buy this thing right now. I think I'd be very, very patient
05:46 before I dip my toe into this water. I think that's smart. There's no need to rush into this
05:52 one. Not yet. They may have to reformulate something. They may even have to scrap it. So
05:58 be careful, folks. Let's talk about Zscaler, Pete, because in the pre-market, it was $10 lower than
06:05 where it is right now. It's $190 stock, but it was 182 this morning. Now it's trading 192.
06:13 The issue here really was that even though they raised guidance, Pete, they made a lot of
06:20 management changes. And for an immediate management change, like they did, that's not the same as
06:27 saying, well, three months from now, we're going to do this. So people got nervous.
06:31 They got nervous. They talked about the one thing also was the billings forecast wasn't quite what
06:37 they were looking for. But all the other numbers, John, pretty outstanding, actually. So I think
06:42 that's why the stock has bounced the way it was. You talked about it. It was down to 182.
06:47 It's gotten back up to 192. It's actually gone from negative and back into positive territory.
06:52 It's interesting. It's then eased back just a little bit again. But it's right near those 52-week
06:58 highs of 195. So this is a stock that I think people, you know, I think they're a little bit
07:03 confused. I think they're starting to find their way now. And I think the reality is the numbers
07:07 they put up were fantastic. Billings forecast may be a little bit soft. But you can look past that
07:12 when you look at what they did this past quarter. And this is one where I think, you know what,
07:17 I think they actually could challenge over the next couple of days, maybe a week or so,
07:21 that 52-week high level. Yeah, well, I think there's more confidence, obviously, now after
07:28 things settled down about those management changes. And that's why it's $10 higher than the lows of
07:33 the day. Let's talk about Micron. You used to be the specialist in Micron. The stock is sliding,
07:40 but it has bounced as well. It was down 5%. Now it's only down about 2.5%, Pete.
07:46 They updated Q1 sales forecasts, citing improved supply pricing, meaning I guess that they've got
07:55 some supply demand in their favor, not just oversupply, but demand has caught up to the
08:01 supply. And I think that's why we're seeing a decent bounce out of this one today, Pete.
08:06 I think that's exactly right, John. I think that's why we're bouncing. Because, you know,
08:10 the forecast was $1.14. They actually slid that down to $1. And that oftentimes does give people,
08:16 we hear people, we talk about this all the time, right? I mean, when you start to look at the
08:21 forecast, when you look at the guidance, if that's not there, that can be a problem. It was a problem
08:26 early on, but I think people are looking past that to some degree. Stock is still in negative
08:30 territory, as you said, still down about 2.5%. But basically, when you look at this company,
08:35 you look at what they were able to put up, what their numbers really look like, and you look at
08:39 what the PE levels are and everything else for this company. You know what, there's a lot of
08:44 reasons why maybe people overreacted early. And that's why I think we've cut that in half. Shoot,
08:49 we might finish the day actually closer to flat. Yeah, well, you know, for all the Microsoft longs,
08:56 let's hope so. How about the NFL? How about the firing of coaches in the NFL? And when I say
09:01 coaches, I don't mean just head coaches, John, I'm talking about coordinators across the board,
09:07 every team practically in the NFL, other than the top, the teams that are doing really well,
09:12 still very much in the hunt. They're doing fine. But there's plenty of them out there where they've
09:17 gotten rid of offensive coordinators, defensive coordinators, you've got special teams coaches
09:22 stepping in to be the head coaches in certain circumstances. I'll tell you what, the most
09:26 recent one with Frank Reich down there in Carolina, is this really his fault, John? Or is
09:32 Tepper being a little bit of a kind of a pain in the butt as far as an owner because he didn't,
09:38 Reich did not want to draft Bryce Young. And yet, Tepper said, let's go get him. We want him. He's
09:45 only 5'10". He's 185 pounds, 190, whatever he is, John. He's small, he's frail, and he's not really
09:52 NFL ready. Now, it doesn't mean he couldn't be someday. But I think in the NFL, you need some
09:58 time when you're that small and everything else and you're almost overwhelmed. Well, he's
10:03 overwhelmed. Now, Reich's not overwhelmed. He's fired. He's gone. McDaniels is gone. So I guess
10:09 the question I have for you, John, real quick would be, who do we think is next? Is it Ron Rivera?
10:15 Is it Staley out there in LA? Is it Bill Belichick? Who, if you really do look at Bill
10:21 Belichick's record, guys, and you go all the way back, because I'm old enough to do it,
10:25 go back to Cleveland, maybe go to a couple other stops, you get to New England. I wonder why he
10:31 started winning so well. I'm trying to think, is there any, well, he might've had the goat.
10:35 He might've had Tom Brady. And when he didn't have Tom Brady, he stunk. When he did have Tom Brady,
10:42 he was great. Right now, they don't have Tom Brady and they stink. Is Bill Belichick
10:49 gonna be gone, John, at the end of the year? - Well, I'll tell you one thing, Pete, that
10:54 now in the past, he'd always found the tweeners, like a linebacker that he could convert,
11:01 or something like that. But he has not had to draft the quarterback high. And this guy, Mack,
11:11 just does not look like the quarterback that's gonna lead them going forward. So they're either
11:16 gonna have to trade or draft somebody this year, because it doesn't look like they've got a leader
11:24 on offense right now. It looks like, sort of like the Jets with Zach. You gotta find somebody else.
11:30 Lastly, Pete, I'll just say quickly, I ran into Jim Cramer, your friend and mine,
11:35 outside the New York Stock Exchange yesterday. Check out the Twitter post. Maybe I'll put it
11:40 up here tomorrow. But I told him, he said, "What do you think? What do you think our chances are?"
11:45 He was yelling at me as he came down the block, Pete. "What do you think our chances are, John?
11:49 What do you think?" And I was just looking. Once he got next to me, I said, "Well, I like you guys
11:55 against the Ravens." Pete and I just got finished talking about it. Now, I still think San Francisco
12:01 is a formidable opponent there, more so than what the AFC is gonna put up against the Ravens,
12:08 quite frankly, Pete. But yeah, Jim Cramer was delighted to hear that. He was flying his eagle's
12:14 hat. Fly, eagles, fly! Gotta love Jim. Jim, you know what? Some people were very, very rude to
12:21 you and I about the picture that you two had that I put up on Twitter. And I'm sitting there going,
12:27 "You know, you can think whatever you want, but Jim's a good guy. He's a good guy, and he's always
12:32 been kind to us." So that's where I'll leave that there. But I will tell you, you're right. I think
12:38 the 49ers are definitely one of those teams that people definitely should be afraid of. Philadelphia
12:43 should be one of them. Let's not forget, last year, the Niners were going against Philadelphia.
12:47 And what happened? They lost Brock Purdy. They lost quarterbacks, right? And they had nobody left.
12:52 I mean, that's why I still think that they still need to change that rule about who you can dress.
12:58 You gotta have three quarterbacks on the roster at all times. End of story. That's the way it
13:01 should be. All right, John, next. College football. It is a great time in college football. Everybody's
13:07 fighting over this, that, and the other. We've got a lot of different championship games coming up
13:11 this weekend that'll really sort through things. Alabama, Georgia, you know, all of that. I think
13:16 it's going to be great. Washington, Oregon. How great is that game going to be? All that being
13:21 said... Oh, go ahead, John. No, no, I agree. I said, "Yeah, you're right. That's going to be a huge
13:26 game." Huge game. Big one. And very... It literally could change a lot of how things look in the order
13:33 right now. And by the way, Florida State still has to play Louisville. Anyway, all that being said,
13:37 how about this? I was taking a look at the transfer portal yesterday. One single day, 85 players
13:45 jumped into the portal in college football. I mean, I have never seen anything quite like it,
13:51 because it's quarterbacks and very big-name quarterbacks that are saying, "You know what?
13:56 I want to take a shot somewhere else. I got to get out of where I am." It's amazing to me. I don't
14:02 know what you think about it. I know what I think. I don't like it, especially when these guys are
14:06 maybe a junior or a senior, and they're just leaving because they just think that there's
14:11 somewhere else there's a greener pasture. It's just sad the way college football has turned into
14:16 the NFL. I mean, we've got NIL money. There's players out there making two, three, four million
14:21 dollars. LeBron's son is one of them making a lot of money in basketball. But what do you think,
14:26 John? Is this portal a good thing? I mean, I'll say this. If you're early in your career and you
14:32 feel like you made a mistake, that's one thing. If you're leaving because you just don't like
14:37 your coach, I don't know about that. So, you tell me, how do you feel about this whole thing with
14:43 the portal? Because it's just amazing to me, John, how many kids jumped into it. And more are
14:48 happening today. I was watching it. I was just, literally, it's like a ticker tape. It just keeps
14:52 on going. Yep. And by the way, the Buffaloes, Colorado Buffalo, did just lose their tight end,
15:00 Pete, whose son of a famous Colorado Buffalo football legend, Christian Fauria. But nonetheless,
15:09 do I like it? I'm one of those guys who really likes the players and thinks that the coaches
15:16 making 10 million bucks should just shut up. They've got to keep these players interested,
15:22 not just stack them. Like, you know, there's a couple coaches, maybe in Alabama, Pete,
15:28 that have done that for years. Just stack up the best guys they've got. And then the poor kids
15:35 don't play until they're a senior, if then. So, I'm happy that they can move around. And like I
15:41 say, the coaches are being well compensated. If they've got to be nice to a couple of the players
15:47 that are on the cusp, rather than lose them, well, I like that that puts sort of the proverbial gun
15:54 to the coach's head. Yeah, I hear you. I hear you. It's interesting. It's going to be great.
15:58 We're going to know a lot more by the end of this week, John. When we get into the weekend,
16:02 we see some of those games. And like you said, I can't wait for Washington-Oregon. It's a rematch.
16:06 It wasn't Washington. Oregon lost it. They did all those fourth and ones that they went for it.
16:11 And fourth and three, and they went for it. And they didn't make it and everything. It'll be an
16:15 interesting game. And I think that coach will do the same thing. And I'm not saying that in a bad
16:19 way. I like his aggressiveness. He said what he was going to do. He was a man of his word. It just
16:25 didn't work out. Now, they might not even need it if Bo Nix plays like he's been playing. Yeah,
16:31 well, he's still my pick, Pete. If I was picking number one right now of quarterbacks,
16:39 I would take him over Panics or Daniels. I would take him because the kid's got a gun
16:46 and he fires it quick, which is vital in pro football. You can't do a seven-step drop unless
16:54 you've just got a ton of wheels that you can bounce outside the pocket and run. And Bo Nix
16:59 gets rid of that ball quick. He makes a decision, goes with it. Real quick, John, I'll just say this
17:05 real quick. Your bears have the first pick. And right now you got Justin Fields. So it comes
17:12 becomes an interesting situation. I trade him. I trade him, Pete. I would trade him and get Bo
17:19 Nix. I'm not going to have Bo Nix back up Justin Fields. That'd be stupid. But let us know what you
17:25 think, folks. @PeteNajarian on Twitter, @JohnNajarian on Twitter and 1pm tomorrow Eastern
17:33 time. We'll be back.
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