• last year
Transcript
00:00 Happy Thanksgiving everybody. Welcome to another edition of Behind the Points, Fred, brought to you by Betfred Sports. A full disclosure tonight
00:07 We are recording. So this is a recorded version of Behind the Points, Fred
00:12 So some of the lines that you see tonight
00:14 May have adjusted just a little bit as the week has gone along and we get closer to the games. Before we get started tonight
00:20 A quick reminder, please please please
00:22 Subscribe to our YouTube channel. It's very simple
00:25 If you're watching on YouTube right now, just reach down hit the subscribe button
00:28 You'll be ready to go. You'll get all the content that Dr. Rob and I produce on a weekly basis
00:32 That includes the podcast, that includes the docs diagnosis and this Behind the Points, Fred. You heard me mention Dr. Rob Zaniskow
00:39 We also mentioned Scott Spreitzer who joins us for Behind the Points, Fred. Happy Thanksgiving to both of you
00:44 Good to be here
00:47 You know, I asked this to Dr. Rob in the podcast, Scott, he's not a turkey guy
00:53 He's a he's going surf and turf. Okay, so he's he's either going lobster tail. He's going some crab legs
00:59 Maybe maybe some salmon. I don't know what he's doing. Are you are you a turkey guy?
01:03 I am turkey and ham and stuffing and you know
01:07 Cranberry sauce and everything else through and through but the wife isn't so we end up going
01:12 To an Italian restaurant here in Las Vegas that does both a Thanksgiving traditional dinner and you can also order any pasta you want
01:20 So she usually goes the pasta seafood route loves crab legs
01:25 She can get that kind of stuff and I can sit there and stuff my face with all the traditional Thanksgiving
01:30 Foods and I and again I can eat that like five days a week that stuff
01:34 So I'm always happy when it comes around. That sounds perfect to me
01:37 That's like utter perfection right there. Everybody gets what they want
01:41 What I hear you both saying is it's perfect because nobody has to do dishes afterwards. I mean, there's no queen
01:47 Oh, I mean, we'll have some I mean, but I mean I was gonna say
01:52 75% of what we're gonna eat is gonna be grilled
01:56 That's fair. That's fair. Yeah, I'm coming over to your house Rob for
02:01 Fired up before we get started
02:05 I'm wearing a vest. I'm hotter than hell right now. Dr. Rob's got a t-shirt on. What are you wearing?
02:11 Scott you got it. You got a jersey. I got it. I got a display. It's go rebels, baby
02:15 You and LV 9 and 2 just like you thought they'd be you guys you called it, right?
02:20 Whose number is 88? I couldn't tell you there is no 88. I don't think other roster
02:26 I didn't know if that was like a kind of like an old Cunningham number
02:31 I my daughter probably bought this for me a few years ago or something and it's just a number but
02:36 It's I mean, we're happy
02:39 We're having a blast out here and I'll be at the game against San Jose State on Saturday afternoon as they
02:43 Look to wrap up the Mountain West Conference title Wow
02:47 You know, this is a team that hasn't been bowling in 10 years Nebraska fans can kind of relate but it's a team
02:54 You know, they used to win eight nine games every year and then around, you know, 90 92 somewhere in there
03:00 they just fell on their butts and have never recovered and
03:04 So it's been lose and I had season tickets, you know for many many years
03:08 I'd be out there at the end of the year. There'd be 8,000 people of the Sam Boyd Stadium
03:12 You know cold and desert and out in the middle of nowhere and that wind is sweeping in dirt's blowing in your face and wait
03:18 What's cold
03:22 Well desert at night can be cold Rob. I like give me a number like, you know
03:28 It can the feel the real feel could be like 35 38 degrees
03:32 I'm wearing shorts at 38 degrees, right? How about you? I'm wearing shorts
03:38 That's like the Nebraska thing. It's like warmed up to 38
03:42 Exactly right got the Crocs on maybe a pair of you know, just ankle socks. It would be ready to go 38
03:51 I'm not you know, it's 38. You really need the socks. It's kind of overkill
03:55 Yeah, I'd probably go with the wool socks just to make sure I stayed somewhat warm on my feet
04:00 Well, and of course now they're playing in Allegiant Stadium where the Raiders play so comfortable 72 degrees there every Saturday damn
04:07 I didn't know they were playing there. Hey before we get started
04:09 Remember you can work with the Scotts Pricer at a weekly basis
04:13 Just text the word doc talk to the number two nine zero two two and get a free trial
04:16 $60 trial the premium ever picture of Scott or visit doc sports comm and sign up for the free 60 on the upper left hand side
04:24 the good friends at
04:27 Betfred sports have a no sweat first bet offer for you when you sign up with betfred and make your first wager of
04:33 $20 or more it will be matched with a Fred bet up to 105 dollars if your bet loses so you can't go wrong, right?
04:40 You're gonna get your money back. If you lose use the promo code rush. That's rush and keep in mind
04:45 The promo code is case sensitive and don't forget about the parlay bonus when you place nine
04:52 football parlays the 10th parlay is on Fred get rewarded with up to a
04:55 $100 Fred bet each week of the pro football season use the promo code
05:01 Parlay, so here are the four games we have for you tonight
05:04 There are some good ones coming up this weekend as we've reached the final week of the regular season of college football
05:09 We've got farmageddon down in Manhattan, Kansas as Iowa State takes on Kansas State
05:14 The what they used to call this the Civil War, but now they're all politically correct out there in Oregon
05:20 So now it's the rivalry series as Oregon State takes on Oregon then the game which is Ohio State and
05:27 Michigan and then finally it is the heroes game
05:31 Made-up trophy game between Nebraska and Iowa as the Hawks travel with a 9 and 2 record, Nebraska
05:37 Needing a win to go bowling. So I
05:39 interject here really clear
05:43 Okay, the heroes trophy thing the made-up one with Iowa and Nebraska
05:46 Yeah, like I always thought that was a little overkill as well. It's like socks with Crocs when it's 38
05:54 Well, it was it was high be that sponsored at first now. It's Pioneer seeds
05:58 It's this sponsorship crap that I get it and it's all good and I understand it's the it's the Big Ten
06:04 so they want a trophy game for everything I
06:07 Didn't realize there's a trophy for the Nebraska Wisconsin game. I I just saw that this weekend
06:14 I had no idea either I had no clue and apparently it's a thing
06:18 But it's not a thing
06:21 It's so not a thing unless it's relate
06:24 yeah, and like when it comes to unless it's somehow related to Paul Bunyan a
06:29 pig or a spittoon
06:32 It's not a thing
06:35 I'm with you and who has the old oak and bucket
06:39 The book is that who is Indiana and who Purdue that's a pretty good. Yeah. I mean Floyd's great
06:48 Yeah, Paul Bunyan's axe is great
06:52 He's great, you guys know the biggest and most expensive rivalry trophy in college football, you know, Montana, Montana State
07:00 Fremont Cannon Reno and UNLV Oh
07:03 the Fremont Cannon
07:06 It's a it's an actual cannon. Yes
07:09 Three feet tall and about eight feet long and it can work and it's been painted red for a couple of years now
07:17 By the way, they fire it
07:20 I don't know
07:22 Yeah, I don't know if they fire that one anymore
07:25 It's you know
07:26 the school paints their colors on it when they win and you know
07:29 I got to go head-to-head against my daughter who's at Reno and of course my school is UNLV
07:34 So but it's it's a huge trophy and they I heard the other day
07:38 It's the most expensive and the biggest rivalry trophy in college football as you would expect because we are the college football hotbed
07:46 Which is so here's a question for you
07:49 Did you actually go to you and LV? Yeah when I came out here
07:54 I first started enrolled in you and LV and I went to I studied check this out
07:59 I studied Japanese and I studied like broadcast journalism and guys are gonna laugh my you would trap you're the same
08:05 No, I didn't study Japanese Rob
08:08 journalism
08:11 Well, I got it I got it I got to clarify it though because my my whole goal at that point
08:17 Was I was going to go to Japan and I was going to call or do color?
08:23 For Japanese baseball for five years and then come back to the States. That was the plan now
08:27 I did not finish at you one LV. I got to clarify that too because second year into my college experience
08:33 My experience became the Palace Station sports book to read March Madness and I was like, this is it
08:40 This is what I'm supposed to do
08:42 This is why I came out here good at this and and that was it and I actually was placed in my second year of
08:48 School at a radio station sports radio station in Las Vegas
08:52 And then by the time I was 20 not even 21
08:55 I had a very first daytime sports betting talk show in Las Vegas sunrise sports
09:01 It was from 7 a.m
09:03 To 9 a.m
09:03 Pacific time and all I did was talk sports betting for two hours Monday through Friday and that was when I was like 20
09:09 So, you know, I guess like that that's gonna be like a dream job. It was like I loved it. I
09:15 You notice they didn't give Rob a scalpel or a needle at age 20 they made him wait till he's in his 30s
09:25 Okay. Well, I waited till I was in my 30s because I was still strapping on a helmet. Sure. That's true
09:32 It's to Shay my friend to Shay. Hey, let's kick things off today with Iowa State and Kansas State the Cyclones
09:39 Played tough against Texas just couldn't get the win. Kansas State had to rally to beat Kansas last week
09:45 I'm kind of surprised at this again. This is an early line
09:48 Kansas State - 10 against the Cyclones the over under 47 and a half Scott
09:54 I gotta be honest with you that that that 10 surprises the hell out of me. Yeah, it was 9 on Sunday night
09:59 So it's gone from 9 to 10 already and like you told everybody we're recording this on Monday early evening
10:05 And the numbers already dropped jumped to 10 everywhere
10:08 I still like it at 10 by the way, I like K State here therefore we talked about it last week
10:13 You know
10:13 They're 14 points away from being 11 and oh right now
10:16 And then again that you know, one of those losses was by a field goal to a pretty good, Missouri football team
10:21 Who's playing well, so that loss doesn't look too bad
10:24 Obviously at this point of the season and you can also remember last week
10:27 We said K State runs and stops the run they forgot about stopping the run and K
10:32 You was able to get up and down the field on the ground against them, which did surprise me a little bit
10:37 Here's the thing though. Iowa State doesn't run. I mean, they're 108
10:40 It's a Russian yards per game, you know what? I got nine yards on 21 carries last week against, Texas
10:46 I I you know if I always state was gonna upset somebody I think it would have been last week
10:51 I think they're in trouble this week
10:53 And you know
10:53 You see the numbers there and we talked about climbing 38 and 20 against the spread now after last week's spread loss at K State
11:00 And how about 17 and 5 against the spread as home chalk and they win those home games by 22 points per game
11:05 So I don't expect climbing to lose against the spread two weeks in a row. They had their close call last week
11:11 I just think this is at least a two touchdown win
11:13 Yeah, look at Iowa State straight up one and eight against Kansas State its last nine games in Manhattan
11:19 I had Kansas State eight and two against the spread in his last ten games against opponents in the Big 12
11:24 You know climates an interesting cat right is in
11:27 Do you think he's do you think he's a lifer at K State?
11:31 He's getting up there in age, but there's some pretty good jobs coming open. Do you think somebody goes after Chris climbing?
11:37 How old is he now? I think he's 56 57. Yes. I think he's pushing 60. So anyway, I don't know
11:44 I mean he seemed like you said he's an interesting guy and I know he had a couple of opportunities last offseason
11:49 It's all about this and how much it means to you the cabbage, you know
11:52 If he gets some big big offer, which I I don't know why he wouldn't you know by a program that I could afford him
11:58 I don't know why he wouldn't get a few big offers
12:00 But it's all about the you know
12:01 The money and how much that means to him the rest of the way because you know, let's think about it
12:06 Are you into security at this point as a college coach because if you are you stay at Manhattan?
12:10 You're likely gonna win nine games a year. You're gonna be in the top 20, you know on a perennial
12:15 Situation and or do you want to go to a place where you got to win ten games for the you know?
12:21 The the hometown fans and the and all the alums to be happy
12:24 So it just I think it depends on money and I think he's gonna get several offers
12:28 I mean again, but he's such a good fit there. Yeah
12:31 And I mean on occasion kid, I mean, it's not often but every so often case state opens up their pocketbooks and shells it out
12:39 He's been able to remember when Ron Prince went to Kansas State he separated the Snyder guys the Snyder
12:46 Fanbase and support group has I think joined Chris climbing which be able to keep that culture was very huge
12:54 100% I mean that is he's a run the ball guy. He's an old line guy that offensive line at Kansas State's outstanding. I
13:02 Mean, that's really or that's a really really good group. I
13:07 Mean across the board. I mean, I would kill to have that in Lincoln right now
13:12 Like Ron Prince, it's like you can always tell like if a guy doesn't last long at a certain school
13:17 He's kind of an up-and-comer in the coaching world
13:20 And then you don't hear about him again as a head coach
13:21 Maybe an assistant but not a head coach it kind of tells you that they missed
13:24 You know the shot on that when they missed the target
13:27 I mean, it's like Ron Prince Polini, you know Polini's nobody's run into Polini asked him to be their head coach at any
13:33 Significant program so you kind of find out either their personality is screwed up, which I've heard is Polini
13:39 I don't know that for a fact and then you know as far as Ron Prince
13:42 It's just it didn't work as a head coach and it was a pretty good coordinator before that
13:46 I mean some guys are really good coordinators and not good head coaches and
13:51 Sometimes it's the opposite. I but I and I've told this to Rob and Robin
13:55 I've talked to us about this many times some of the best interactions. I've ever had with the head coach has been Bo Polini
13:59 I mean he was yeah, he was always great to me very gracious
14:04 His sideline antics didn't always match what was off the field but sometimes
14:10 That was kind of a unique situation, I mean I'll still go back and it's
14:16 the fact that the guy
14:19 coach for
14:21 two seasons, maybe three
14:23 Knowing that as athletic director. Well, I don't know what the athletic director because it was Osborne
14:30 But knowing that knowing that the university chancellor wanted to fire bingo
14:35 Bingo, there is yeah, I mean, it's like you got a guy who's sitting there going. Okay. It's a matter of time
14:40 Yeah, I mean they literally had to replace Osborne to get rid of Polini. Yep
14:47 100% and they did that without even Tom Osborne's knowledge. We had no idea. He was getting replaced
14:53 We we could go on and on and on. Yeah, we're changing here. Anyway
14:57 Here, here's the thing. I am not surprised by the - 10 case
15:02 I'm the only one here. I'm the only one who's sitting there going man
15:06 I think Iowa State if its defense shows up like it did against Texas. They can hold them but
15:11 Was under 10 last night on Sunday night
15:14 So the only thing that I'm surprised about here is the fact that we're not taking bets
15:21 unlike how many you like
15:23 Railway cars full of bush light are gonna get hit. Well, that's true. There'll be a lot of bush light consumed in Manhattan
15:32 Yeah, but you know what?
15:33 I'm gonna have to take your guys word for it because you two are the smart ones
15:36 I I'm the dumb one on the show you two are the smart ones. I don't know
15:39 I just I just I look at - 10 case state. I'm like, yeah, that makes sense
15:43 As well as Iowa State's played this year since that Ohio loss
15:47 I'm still going with K state. All right, a lot of a running game is what bothers me Travis. It's like get it one-dimensional
15:55 Staying mean
15:57 What's that with Iowa State? You mean? Yeah, their offense is so one-dimensional and and I'm thinking climbing, you know
16:03 he obviously one of the top coaches we talk about every week and
16:07 He doesn't lose his home as a home favorite and I think you'll you know
16:11 they're gonna approach this game as we we just got to worry about them making a few passes and
16:15 Let's dare him to run a little bit because they can't
16:17 And Kansas State still with a shot at the big 12 title game that a whole big 12 thing is messed up if you look at
16:22 All the tiebreakers and stuff like that. It's trying to figure out who's gonna play
16:26 I always love it when you hop on social media and people are putting out there like yeah, here's the official tiebreakers for
16:33 It's it's messed up. Of course
16:37 Oregon is still has a chance at the college football playoff. You have the rivalry series now
16:43 They used to call this a civil war, but they got to be politically correct out there in Oregon
16:47 It's Oregon State in Oregon the Ducks at 13 and a half point favorite over under at 62
16:52 They're expecting a lot of points scored in this baby
16:55 Yeah, I live in Las Vegas where politically correct is like just the opposite of what put it politically correct is everywhere else
17:01 Especially in the Northwest. So it's still the Civil War
17:04 It's still the Red River shootout, you know between Texas and Oklahoma all this other goofy stuff
17:09 Anyway, yeah this line, you know being at 13 and a half is a little interesting this game being played on Friday
17:15 And you know, I look at Oregon and I'm like man, they run well, they run for 200 yards per contest
17:21 They only give up about 95 96 yards per game
17:23 I love those dichotomies late in the season when you got a team that's got better than a two-to-one ratio
17:28 What they rush for as to what they allow and that's the Oregon Ducks that got a little revenge
17:33 Remember last year's game they're up 34 to 17 with like 13 and a half minutes to go in the game
17:38 Oregon State scores 21 straight points goes on to win it by four
17:42 In Oregon State ran for like 270 on like 40 carries of that game. It was crazy
17:47 And you know, the Ducks just aren't allowing that so far this season
17:50 They're not giving up a lot of rushing yardage and I look at what Oregon State has done to make improvements
17:55 They went out and they got who a yoga Lele who is you know, absolutely had a rebirth
17:59 So to speak being an Oregon State rather than a Clemson. He protects the ball
18:03 Well, he's only got six picks on the year, but he's not a really accurate passer
18:08 He's still around 57% on the season the defense did that fantastic job last week on Washington, especially the second half
18:15 I took a deep breath. I I don't think I actually
18:18 Inhaled and exhaled a full breath the entire second half when that game was over
18:23 It was like I had just played in that football game for 60 minutes
18:26 But listen the secondary they've been terrific all season. Here's where I think
18:30 Oregon State can make some noise potentially
18:33 I know it sounds crazy with these two but keep this game under 62 you look at Bo Nix 35 touchdown passes only two picks
18:40 He leads the nation in completion percentage 78 yard 78 percent
18:45 Completion rate but check this out looking back at the metrics
18:49 65% of the passes Bo Nix has thrown this year has been in the air for less than 10 yards
18:55 It's all dump-offs and yak yards after catch if Oregon State has got a fantastic
19:00 Secondary can clamp down on that a bit which nobody really has thus far against the Ducks then they can keep this game close
19:06 I think because of that I think because OSU is gonna have to run the football
19:09 That it stays a little under 62
19:12 That's kind of what I'm looking at early in the week is
19:14 I'm kind of waiting to see that if that total is gonna go up a little bit more than it might come in on the
19:18 Under and I know that's dangerous ground
19:20 When you're talking about the Ducks and Beavers and you're talking about playing under 62
19:24 But boy when I look at how they move Oregon, I just think in
19:28 OSU they've got a shot to make some noise in this game if that secondary continue to play continues to play well
19:34 Wow, that would really rock the system too, right because
19:37 Oregon and Washington can't afford to lose if they want to be in the college football play
19:42 Oh, you're gonna lose by the way guys. I don't think they're gonna lose this game
19:45 I just don't know if they're gonna get that to touchdown cover
19:47 And if you look at the total has gone over in the 15 of Oregon's last 20 games against Oregon State
19:53 So you're kind of leaning towards the under on this one. Yeah, that's where I lean right now early in the week
19:57 Like I said, it's kind of dangerous ground to talk about under in the Civil War
20:01 But that's that's kind of what I'm looking at here
20:03 Just because the way teams their offenses are compared to where they were last year
20:07 Like I said, you know, Oregon State I mean they ran for 270 yards in that game last year
20:11 Nobody's rushing the football against Oregon this year
20:13 And I think OSU because of that is gonna have to do a little bit of dumping off
20:17 They will have to try to establish the run
20:19 But then when I looked at Bo Nix's numbers and I saw everything is basically think about that
20:23 Seven out of his ten passes don't travel past ten yards in the air
20:27 It's all this yak after he throws the ball and they complete it and they bust these open runs Wow
20:32 Yeah, but I mean it's with a quarterback like that in a system like that. I
20:36 Mean you can always make the argument. It's ball control. Sure. No again. I agree with you that also
20:46 Indicates that they're the under is the way to go
20:49 Cuz ball control off. Yeah. I mean it's not like they're gonna score a crap ton if they're shooting the under but
20:57 Man some of those games I look at with Oregon where I mean, I don't know if Colorado is a good example anymore, but
21:07 Yeah, I love Colorado the measuring stick. Yeah. Yeah, they're not measuring stick for anybody
21:12 What was the final score in that Oregon Washington game? I'm blanking on it. It's like so long ago
21:18 3633 Washington
21:21 Just about everybody it's a three-point line
21:24 Washington's been hanging on on the edge last couple weeks. I mean, that's interesting
21:29 That's why this last week and you got Washington Washington State which by the way just up their series through
21:34 2028 that's good to see even though they're separating out of leagues. They're gonna continue to play that that rivalry, which I like to see but
21:41 Washington's been really hovering on the edge and they're playing with fire when it comes to the college football playoff
21:46 Hey, let's go to the game, which is Ohio State at Michigan. This is so interesting
21:52 Of course
21:53 Jim Harbaugh is not going to be coaching in it if Michigan wins
21:56 It goes to the Big Ten title game to play Iowa Ohio State wins
22:00 The Buckeyes would go to the Big Ten title game to play, Iowa
22:03 Right now Michigan a three and a half point favorite the over under at forty six and a half
22:10 It's down to three in some shops
22:12 I mean this line was you know four and a half at a couple of shops on Sunday night Monday morning
22:16 Those are gone. There are some three and a half's out there, but it's almost all 80% of the books have a
22:22 three-point spread on this one and I'll start with this that you know
22:27 I make Michigan on a neutral field one and a half points better than Ohio State on a neutral field and
22:32 You probably throw a four spot at least I do for Ann Arbor
22:35 So you're talking about a raw power rating at home for Michigan of five point five points better
22:41 Than the Buckeyes, so I'm having a hard time thinking
22:44 Well, do I want to take the dog here and I don't normally take you know
22:47 A team that's two and a half points away from from my power ratings and you know
22:51 As far as the Buckeyes they get a lot of praise, but you know, they really haven't beaten anyone by margin
22:56 They got the fortunate win over Notre Dame
22:58 We'll give them credit because they did what they had to when they had to get it done
23:02 But most of us have Dame power rated about 10th same with Penn State these two teams took on Penn State
23:07 we have a power rated anywhere from 8 to 11 depending on whose power ratings you use and
23:11 Michigan steamrolled Penn State where the Buckeyes were in a 13 to 6 game, you know late in the fourth quarter
23:16 Michigan, you know
23:18 They didn't even have to throw a pass in the second half as everybody knows and they just steamrolled that team
23:23 I was a beat down the score didn't tell the whole story there
23:25 That the way they control the line of scrimmage and how physical they were
23:27 So I did think that maybe we saw weakness relatively speaking guys and in Michigan's defense last week
23:34 Maryland threw a ton of short passes
23:36 They only ran for 15 yards because they didn't seem to care about the run. They knew they weren't gonna run against, Michigan
23:42 They started throwing these little Dinkin dumps that were turned into extra yardage after a catch and Michigan looked like they had some problems with
23:48 That it's the first I don't know if you want to call it this serious
23:51 But first chink of the armor that I've seen out of Michigan this season for me
23:55 They threw the two picks the Terps which was the difference in the game and listen, you know when I looked at Ohio State
24:00 I still think their defense is slightly better than Michigan's
24:03 JJ McCarthy finally faced some adversity last week. He only went 12 for 23 with the pick
24:09 That's a little scary as you're going into your big game
24:11 They looked beatable last week for the first time this year and I'm just wondering if McCord
24:16 I think he's got the skill if they're gonna be able to run some of those dump off those
24:21 Checkdowns and that kind of stuff like Maryland did last week and if they do they can pull the upset
24:25 I my matchup say Ohio State guys my power rating say, Michigan
24:30 So is that like your head in your heart?
24:33 Hi, yeah, I'm asking. Yeah, like we're what are the metrics and the numbers that you rely upon?
24:40 Normally, what what are what's that saying here when you yeah, it's like probably 55 45 in favor of Michigan
24:46 And and that goes into how I make my power ratings and all that
24:49 So that's why I come up with this five and a half point home number
24:52 That's all power ratings using nothing but metrics taking the emotion taking what you just saw the previous week
24:58 And that's also guys by the way, why I make my numbers a full week in advance
25:02 so I made the number for this game before Michigan played Maryland and
25:05 That doesn't influence my power rating off. I'm a bookmaker behind a counter at a Las Vegas casino
25:11 I got to take all that into effect because the public is thinking what they just saw more than anything else mine is like
25:18 Compiled stats and metrics where one game cannot sway you too far away from where that should be your power ratings
25:25 And so before those games last week
25:27 I had Michigan five and a half in this game and now I've got to sit there and decide if what I saw against Maryland
25:32 Was you know a flat spot or if Maryland found a little weakness in that Michigan defense?
25:37 Okay. So here's my question
25:40 All of these games we're looking at. I mean, maybe not necessarily, Kansas State, Iowa State
25:46 But you look at Oregon Oregon State you look at
25:50 You look at Michigan, Ohio State, I mean these are big rivalry games
25:56 You can't remove emotion from that. I mean it definitely plays in and all of us I mean
26:05 This is the one time a year where you look at these specific games that all of a sudden I'm like, okay
26:12 Well, yeah, you maybe have to account for that
26:15 How much does that play in I don't play a lot of rivalry games late in the year, you know
26:20 I might play, you know SNU TCU in week three, but when we get towards the end of the season
26:25 It's like I stay away from a lot of these games. I really yeah
26:28 I mean, I'm I mean I'm talking about like the old-school, Nebraska, Oklahoma
26:31 the Miami Florida States the
26:34 You know what? I do South Carolina's. I mean are those are those games that you just look at yours?
26:40 You're saying there's too much emotion involved
26:44 The values not there from a betting standpoint. Yeah, and what and especially now, I mean if you like the Buckeyes, you know
26:50 It's down to three
26:51 You're not gonna you're not gonna bet the Buckeyes here
26:54 Even if they're gonna win outright, you're not gonna bet of it three if you're a pro better and you could have had four and a
26:58 Half that's just not gonna happen at this point. So what happens a lot?
27:01 Well, here's the kind of talking about what you were saying when it comes to these rivalry games and the traditional
27:06 Rivalry games that have been going on for years. I do more
27:10 I mean, I'll put a power rating out on the week before I'll look at it
27:12 Look how it is against the spread and then a lot of times especially if it's a couple of really good football teams
27:17 Clashing like the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. I just have to pass that game and in college football, you know
27:23 I've talked about it before that
27:25 Going back like 30 years
27:28 It's like the average margin away from the point spread is over 12 points per game
27:32 And if you look at this Buckeyes, Michigan series
27:35 You've seen a lot of double-digit games of late between these two what I like to do late in the season
27:41 Especially what I'm looking for, you know, maybe a little bit bigger play than I might normally make on a Saturday
27:47 Maybe I have one or two big plays and a bunch of one unit plays so to speak
27:50 what I'll do is I'll look for favorites that are laying more than a touchdown and
27:55 No more than 14 and the reason I kind of landed on that many many years ago
28:01 This late in the season for games is because if they're more than a touchdown favorite, you're but you basically know who should win that football game
28:08 They're not gonna always do it. You know, who's gonna win outright? Excuse me?
28:11 And if they're laying more than 14, then you're talking about a team that has to you know
28:16 They gotta have the foot on the gas pedal for most of the four quarters
28:20 So if you look at that 8 to 14 range, basically for me, I kind of got a feeling who's gonna win the game now
28:25 I just got to find reasons for them to get over that 14 and that's what I tend to do
28:29 Late in the season when I'm looking to bet on favorites, but you're right man, Ohio State, Michigan
28:34 I don't I probably I'm probably not gonna mess with that
28:36 It probably won't make my card, you know, unless I see something in the next couple of days
28:39 It's not gonna make my card, you know, dr
28:42 Rob quote you a lot on the on the podcast just about you know
28:45 If you were losing a key player and what does that do the line?
28:48 I didn't ask you this last week
28:50 But when when Michigan is doesn't have Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines
28:54 Does not having your head coach on the sideline affect the line at all for you? Yeah, it does
28:59 I mean even if he's up in the box or he's you know at his house
29:03 And he's skyping in directions and I'm kidding when I say that but the bottom line is is just not having his presence on the sideline
29:09 I think hurts Michigan no doubt about it. He's coaching them up obviously in practice, but you know and Rob's probably got a answer
29:16 I mean if you look to the sideline and Tom Osborne has been suspended
29:20 You've got great assistant coaches, but is it the same feel you know?
29:23 Is it the same confidence that you have when he's not out there? Okay, see in my mind. This is apples and oranges
29:30 Because Tom Osborne was Nebraska's
29:33 Offensive coordinator he was the quarterbacks coach. He's the head coach
29:37 You kind of let McBride run the defense
29:40 And I think Michigan's fine in that regard
29:44 Defensively, I don't know what Harbaugh does and so you know Travis brings this up
29:51 It's a great question because I'm sitting here going
29:53 Well, I mean, okay, let's take Iowa for instance I
29:58 Mean I get it the whole thing with Ference and the chess game. He plays with field position, but I mean you've got
30:05 Parker still the D coordinator at Iowa correct. Absolutely he gets a total autonomy with that okay
30:12 Let him run the defense
30:14 Special teams is gonna do their things
30:17 Does it really matter if Ference is there if Kirk is there well?
30:22 No, I mean from a moral standpoint
30:27 Yeah, yeah
30:29 Michigan's I'm sitting here going like
30:32 okay, I mean like I
30:34 Understand you've got your CEO, and he's not gonna be there
30:39 But how much is that guy actually from a I mean from a game day decision standpoint? What is he actually?
30:46 What's his role with Osborne? It was huge. He was the guy calling the plays
30:54 Yeah, I mean he was the guy with the in-game strategy so
30:59 I mean just it's a good way to answer this with Harbaugh if he was
31:03 Excluded or banned or whatever from all activities for three weeks. I
31:08 Make Ohio State the favorite in this game, but it's been 100%
31:12 I totally agree practice every single day in practice so yeah, if he can still coach if he can be there all week
31:21 Okay, you just can't be there for that three hours on the sideline. Yeah, yeah, I
31:27 Know that makes a lot of sense. I think it becomes pretty marginal I
31:32 Don't know that's just my opinion no I I can agree with that and you're right
31:38 There's a completely difference not being able to prepare your team as opposed to just not being there on Saturday
31:43 I think most of these guys nine ninety eight percent of what they're doing
31:47 happens Monday through Friday
31:50 Good point. I've seen doing nothing on the sideline
31:54 I gotta be honest for the last four or five weeks of the second half has been beyond Sanders
31:58 What's he done I mean
32:02 Yeah
32:07 Headset microphone
32:10 You mentioned the rivalry game I still say this is a rivalry game some people don't want to talk about it, but I'll say
32:19 It's the heroes game, Iowa at Nebraska
32:22 It's a 11 o'clock game on Friday Black Friday game on CBS and Nebraska a point and a half favorite right now
32:29 The this is the credit. This is the funny one
32:31 26 and a half all-time record
32:35 Man I saw 26 out there today guys, so it's even lost that half point off the 20
32:43 I was joking with that. There's a sportsbook director here in town
32:46 His name is Dwayne Calucci, and I was saying to Dwayne I texted him and I put it on Facebook about
32:51 Listen how I got an over-under for you on number of offensive touchdowns scored in this game
32:57 But if you make it two and a half, I probably got to go under you know, but I combine offensive touchdown
33:01 Situation, but you know what?
33:03 I always when I was a kid and a few times Nebraska and Iowa played I always thought of as a border war and you
33:09 Know our my friends did and that goes back to like Larry station when he was playing defense
33:13 Yeah, this you look at kind of that 80 to 82 time period. Yeah, Omaha boy
33:18 I think he went to Central and he ends up going to Iowa Larry station
33:21 So anyway, um as far as this game emics, what's that? He went for the academics Oh
33:27 Open door policy and I was said here. I'm kidding. Have you ever Larry station Trev smart dude, man
33:34 Dude, he's a smart dude. Yes smart dude. What is he doing now, by the way gosh
33:43 He's back
33:45 Yeah, he's in Omaha, yeah, but he lives a pretty private life, you know
33:51 He's on dealers and but he just kind of lives a private life and does his own little thing
33:56 He was going to the grocery store for a little bit. Yeah, what I thought he two daughters were
34:01 Outstanding high school golfers here. Yeah, I think they were and I think they went to Iowa as well
34:08 Yeah, but that was the real reason was it academics? Yeah. Okay. I thought he just liked Hayden Frye
34:14 Yeah, I mean
34:21 Rob I said 9 to 7 the final Rob went up to 24 14 on this one
34:25 I think I will wins 9 to 7 Rob was at 24 14. I'm like what crack pipe are you smoking?
34:30 What side do you lean on the lower end or the higher end of what we're talking about here that high above this the
34:38 Total that that sounds like total of the year stuff coming out of Rob there. So just to throw the
34:42 optimistic
34:44 You're optimistic. I'm optimistic
34:46 Nebraska, you know, they opened up a one and a half point dog in this game the Huskers and
34:50 They're now laying as many as two points
34:53 So and you know earlier in the week that sharp money the public doesn't get involved
34:57 They'll start get involved a little bit earlier this week because it's a Friday game
35:00 But the public doesn't get involved until the day before or the day of the game more often than not
35:05 So this is sharp money whether it wins or not coming into the Huskers
35:09 I got better things I can do with my money than to plunk down line moving amounts of money on Iowa or Nebraska
35:16 I just got to say that
35:18 Anyway, the teams are both power rated. Here's why they're looking at Nebraska some of the sharps neither one of these teams
35:24 It's kind of funny you got Iowa like what are they 20th in the AP poll or something like that?
35:28 It's 16 to the college. They're like six. Yeah, there's 16th. Yeah
35:32 I moved up to 16th this week, you know where they're power rated by everybody who has a legitimate power rating already outside the top 50
35:39 Wow, I
35:44 Do mine and others do theirs?
35:46 We actually if both Nebraska and Iowa actually had to go play teams outside of the Big Ten West
35:53 It'd be brutal
35:57 We'll take them out of Las Vegas bring them out here
35:59 I'm getting
36:01 But you know what I they're both power rated between 50th and 60th
36:08 So you're talking about pretty even football teams from the pro bettors perspective and then you got home field
36:15 Which doesn't mean you know nearly what it used to in Lincoln, but it's still worth a couple of points
36:19 Yeah, I made these teams. I mean I want one point better than Nebraska on a neutral field
36:25 Let's throw in two and a half points and you make Nebraska one and a half point favorite playing at Memorial Stadium
36:31 Which means it's basically a 50/50 toss-up game as far as from a betting perspective is concerned
36:35 But you got you know
36:36 Two of the top defenses as we all know and broken record can Nebraska sustain some drives after the first quarter
36:42 To be able to you know, put some separation between themselves and another team probably not
36:48 What a great start last week for Chaba and you know
36:51 My buddy down in Phoenix Dan Minucci who I do a show with him on Fridays
36:54 He was his quarterback whisperer, so to speak
36:58 He was in Dan Minucci's quarterback camp just as Brock pretty was and what's-his-face the kid who went to Spencer Rattler
37:05 He's one of them that was in his camp
37:07 So, you know, I'm listening to him when Chaba came out of college or out of high school
37:11 I was heavily recruited by Florida State talking about you know
37:13 This kid's got the goods if he's coached up and he wasn't coached up when he first got to Nebraska now
37:18 He probably is I don't know. Is he healthy? You know, I heard he had a little get a little banged up again
37:23 And that's no
37:25 Coach rule said today that he should be ready to go
37:27 So I listen if Nebraska wins this game the Brat and Chaba wins it for him
37:32 I I do believe that Rob and I talked about it. I still think I was gonna win
37:35 but if Nebraska doesn't turn the football over and Chaba gets better, I think
37:41 Nebraska wins Chubb Chubb wins it for him. Okay. So here's the here's how I'm looking at this
37:49 Probably Nebraska's biggest issue against Wisconsin was dealing with Mordecai and you got a guy who I
37:56 Mean he's a solid athlete. I mean, he's not Patrick Mahomes, but the guy can run a bit
38:03 Yeah, and it really really gave Nebraska fits is
38:07 Deacon gonna run on Nebraska. No Deacon had a about a 12-yard run on third down on third and 11 last week
38:15 But the dude weighs 258 pounds. He's a truck. He's not running anywhere
38:20 and I guess that's where I look at this is I mean if he's back in the pocket and
38:24 Nebraska can just kind of keep him there. I
38:28 Kind of worry about Iowa's ability to score points and like I said, I get it
38:34 They don't have to score a lot because you know, Nebraska's not gonna score
38:38 You don't need to worry about Iowa's ability to score points because they don't score points the punk team's gonna do that for them
38:45 Not the punt return the punt team
38:47 Has Iowa faced a running quarterback? I mean
38:51 The paddock kid from Illinois last week wasn't bad. He you know, he came in he did a decent job
38:57 But not really a true running quarterback like like they'll see in Purdy
39:02 I guarantee them see the quarterback like they've seen in show but and we showed it on the Doc's diagnosis earlier this week
39:07 Chubb has got he's got a step to where he can turn the Jets on like that
39:12 And we saw that the opening
39:14 Well, and the other thing is to from a throw in the ball standpoint. I
39:18 Mean desperate he had one interception
39:23 It was Nebraska's only turnover and it was basically a desperation throw last play of the game in overtime
39:29 Yeah, I mean
39:31 He took care of the ball. Well, I didn't I only saw the first half
39:35 So I got to be honest with you guys only saw the first half
39:37 I had other games that had my bedding attention
39:40 But here's the bottom line for me and we've talked about this in some games earlier this year like rematches from the year before is
39:46 The point spread that has been adjusted like crazy
39:49 Really doesn't really call for that what we're seeing out of this year's teams compared to last year
39:54 Iowa was an 11-point favorite last year now
39:57 They're getting to as many as two points, you know
40:00 And we talked about the home field advantage and Lincoln isn't what it used to be not even close
40:03 So you're talking about a 13-point line adjustment from last year's game to this year's game
40:09 Are you seeing I'm not seeing enough of an Iowa drop-off or Nebraska, you know being better. They are better
40:15 They're banged up, but they're better than last year
40:17 But 13 points worth on an adjustment because of where they're playing that doesn't that doesn't jive with me in this one
40:23 Interesting. I think last year's game was an anomaly
40:27 Yeah, cuz I would turn the ball over but I will say the turnovers
40:31 I mean that was something Iowa doesn't do that. They did last year in that one game
40:36 It's a complete anomaly, but history will tell you go back and think starting 2018. These games are close, right?
40:43 I would never ask you're gonna play close games. It's probably gonna be a field goal or a touchdown game
40:47 No more no less than that if it is
40:50 something that seriously wrong you got a special team score defensive score and maybe a lot of a lot of
40:56 Defense or turnovers for that matter, too
40:59 So yeah, I think it's gonna be a good one might be boring
41:02 But it's gonna be a good football game if you like close football games. Hey, don't forget
41:07 You got the no sweat first bet offer if you like one of the games we talked about tonight
41:10 These might be one of the games you're doing on so if you have bet Fred in your state
41:14 When you sign up with bet Fred on your Apple or Google or Google Play Store
41:18 Make your first wager of $20 or more
41:20 It will be matched with a Fred bet up to $105 if your bet loses use the promo code rush
41:27 That's the promo code rush. You make sure to use all caps you like parlays
41:32 How about the parlay bonus when you plays nine football parlays?
41:35 The tenth parlay is on Fred get rewarded with up to a $100 Fred bet each week of the pro football season use the promo code
41:43 Parlay again all caps
41:45 And if you want to work with Scott Spreicher directly text the word doc talk to the number two nine zero two two
41:50 You get a free $60 trial the premium member picks from Scott or you can visit doc sports
41:56 Dot-com sign up for the free 60 on the upper left hand of the website. All right guys
42:02 Appreciate you guys taking the time. Happy Thanksgiving to both of you and I hope you guys have a safe one
42:08 Have a great Thanksgiving
42:10 Enjoy the Italian and Scott. It's got enjoy the Rebels
42:15 Plains of football is it look at he's just loving love in life. This is Ben behind the point spread presented by
42:23 I've been Preston.
42:25 (upbeat music)