On Friday, the second phase of the dynamic five-state assembly elections is underway, featuring Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In Madhya Pradesh, all 230 seats are undergoing polls, while Chhattisgarh is witnessing its second phase for the remaining 70 out of 90 constituencies. The electoral narrative is primarily shaped by the BJP and Congress in both states, setting the stage for a titanic clash on November 17 as the two parties fiercely compete for power. Political Strategist Amitabh Tiwari weighs in. WATCH.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Do you believe that the BJP would be able to keep him and his flock happy in these elections?
00:07 Do you see some changes?
00:08 Do you see, if I am not jumping the gun here, Jyotindra Nitish Sindhiya returning to the
00:14 state, returning to Madhya Pradesh?
00:17 No, see what happened is that last time in Gwalior, Chambal, the BJP suffered a rout.
00:25 And most of the MLAs which came with Sindhiya did win the elections, 19 out of 29 sort of.
00:30 However, this time as per surveys, if you see the surveys across surveys, the BJP is
00:35 still particularly not doing well in the Gwalior, Chambal region as per CM Sir.
00:40 They are bastion.
00:41 They are bastion.
00:42 Yeah, so it means that the, or rather it puts the effectiveness of the Sindhiya camp into
00:48 question and that will be analysed post the results because Congress has made it a Sindhiya
00:56 versus the real Congress issue in Gwalior, Chambal.
00:59 So if the Congress is able to still hold on to Gwalior, Chambal, then the efficacy of
01:04 Sindhiya will be questioned in the BJP and that would lead to either better benefits
01:14 or an improvement in status for Sindhiya or a decline in status for Sindhiya depending
01:19 upon how the state goes because Sindhiya did not contest.
01:23 It was rumoured to contest.
01:24 Yes, yes.
01:25 But even from a traditional seat of Shivpuri, he has not contested because the local candidate
01:31 there is fairly strong and Sindhiya has lost a Lok Sabha election.
01:34 He might not have wanted to risk a loss in a Vidhan Sabha election.
01:38 Yes.
01:39 That would have significantly affected.
01:40 Loss of face.
01:41 Correct.
01:42 Absolutely.
01:43 So we will have to see how the results pan out.
01:44 It is too early.
01:45 December 3rd is still far away.
01:46 We are just one and a half hours into the voting.
01:47 But what does it look like?
01:48 Any writing on the wall situation from your perspective?
01:49 See, it is actually, if you ask me any other state, I would say, but this state is actually
01:50 a kaate ki takkar state.
01:51 Kaate ki takkar.
01:52 Bilkul sahi keh rahe hain.
01:53 On all the 230 seats, it is a seat by seat contest.
01:56 36 rebels of BJP, 39 rebels of Congress, and the majority of the seats are for the BJP.
02:07 So, it is a seat by seat contest.
02:14 The BSP and the SP are also flexing their muscles in the Gwalior, Chambal, Bundelkhand
02:20 and the Vindh region.
02:21 I have never seen Akhilesh Yadav having so many rallies in a state other than UP.
02:28 But conceptually, the viewers have to understand that if a contest becomes a seat by seat
02:34 contest, then it is very difficult for a ruling party.
02:39 A ruling party always desires to have a statewide, nationwide, face contest, not a local seat
02:47 by seat contest, because then it is very difficult to control the narrative.
02:51 So, seat by seat is difficult for the incumbent always.
02:55 However, there are strengths and weaknesses in both.
02:57 Shivraj is the strength as well as weakness.
03:00 Him.
03:01 Exactly.
03:02 And similarly, Kamal Nath is the strength because he has the resources and the organizational
03:06 capability.
03:07 But he has the weakness because he is not a mass leader.
03:09 He is not young.
03:10 And he hasn't been in power for too long in the past.
03:13 He has been out of the state.
03:14 Chindwara has not developed a model, but that model has to be replicated elsewhere.
03:21 And so, it's a lot about the local candidates holding sway in their particular regions.
03:27 And the BJP realized this very early and has opted for a seat by seat contest.