• last year
Transcript
00:00 Welcome to the best college football show on the Internet.
00:02 I'm Travis Justice.
00:03 This is behind the point spread.
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00:18 Just a quick programming note tonight.
00:20 No phone calls tonight.
00:21 That's right.
00:21 We're not going to take any phone calls tonight.
00:23 So just sit back, enjoy the show because we have lots to cover.
00:27 Bringing in two of the smartest guys that I know, Dr.
00:30 Rob Zanuska and Scott Spreitzer.
00:32 Rob, before we even get to you, I got to ask Scott this.
00:34 Scott, was it a fair catch call or not a fair catch call?
00:39 And was that a bad beat?
00:41 I didn't see it live, but I saw it after you texted me and said,
00:44 Hey, did you see that call the Iowa game?
00:46 So then I went back and I was watching it.
00:48 I was watching it on YouTube.
00:49 I didn't need to call New York or wherever they call and review it.
00:53 That looked to me.
00:54 I mean, if you're hands down by your waist,
00:57 I don't know how you can call that a fair catch.
00:59 And was there a flag thrown on the play in the first?
01:02 No, no, there was there wasn't.
01:04 Yeah, and I thought maybe they found one by now.
01:06 But, you know, but I guess they didn't.
01:08 But anyway, yeah, I mean, I'm waiting for this up here.
01:11 I'm looking for it.
01:12 He's just kind of directing traffic, it looked like to me.
01:14 So I thought that was pretty hokey.
01:16 That was pretty bad.
01:17 That crew, to me, shouldn't work another game this season.
01:20 I'm all about accountability.
01:21 See, Rob, he's on my side.
01:23 He's on my side.
01:25 Well, I never said it wasn't.
01:28 I guess here's my problem is that by the letter of the law.
01:32 That's true. I'll give you.
01:33 It was the it was the correct call.
01:35 Now, here's the thing.
01:38 It happened multiple times in that game where he's moving his hands
01:41 and nobody ever says anything.
01:42 Now, he never actually fielded it on those.
01:45 But I think I mean, I see a lot of games
01:50 where you see a guy doing any kind of hand motion.
01:53 And I see the rest is blowing it dead when the guy does catch it.
01:57 What now would I look at that and say, is that a fair catch call?
02:01 No, he's directing traffic.
02:03 And what's getting what's getting lost in the whole thing
02:06 where I've come around and I've actually said I lost.
02:08 Well, I am.
02:10 Is Iowa lost? Yes, they did.
02:12 But where I've come around is there is a difference between
02:15 an invalid fair catch signal and an invalid signal.
02:19 And I've learned that is that as soon as he pointed at the ball,
02:22 technically, you're not supposed to have any hand motion that signals,
02:26 hey, like, stop.
02:27 So there's there's so many different rules that I've learned in the last week.
02:30 I've come around.
02:31 I've it's just one of those things where it just the timing of it was
02:35 was unbelievable that I think a lot of a lot of people were upset.
02:39 And I do agree.
02:40 I think there's a lot of those hand motion with the punt return
02:44 punt returners.
02:46 There's a lot of those hand motion calls that never that never get enforced.
02:51 Yeah, I learned something new because I didn't know that if you point
02:55 to the ball, it's like, that's it.
02:56 It's, you know, considered a play over or whatever.
02:59 But I do know the one football player
03:01 who won a national title and played a few seasons in the NFL.
03:04 If he thinks it was the right call, then then I got to go with that.
03:07 I mean, but again, the thing that bothered me the most about that call
03:12 above anything else was that there was no flag thrown on the play,
03:16 you know, and if you throw a flag and then you got to review it,
03:19 you know, they say, OK, well, he called a fair catch.
03:21 And then Iowa calls for the review.
03:23 You know, whatever.
03:23 It doesn't get overturned, you know, at that point or does.
03:26 Then I can handle that.
03:28 But to have no flag thrown and then you go look at it,
03:31 I guess, is what bothered me the most.
03:33 And maybe that bothers me too much, but it did.
03:36 Would that be considered a bad beat?
03:37 Because what I was like, like a three point favorite or something like that.
03:40 And then the touchdown nullified.
03:42 That's a bad beat with a minute and a half to go, isn't it?
03:44 I would say that's a bad beat.
03:46 And because, you know, you're celebrating that you just won the game.
03:50 It's like you got beat twice because you were already kind of gave up.
03:54 And then you have that happen and you're like, oh, my gosh, you know, lucky win.
03:57 Pull that one out of my head.
03:58 Oh, wait, I lost.
04:00 You know, it's like I'm with a bunch of guys last Thursday night.
04:03 We're watching the Saints game and most people had there had the Saints.
04:07 The Saints were out of it.
04:09 They're not really going to cover the spread.
04:11 And then they make this big comeback.
04:12 And next thing you know, hey, they're right back in it.
04:14 They're going to cover this thing.
04:15 They might win outright.
04:16 And then they find a way to lose anyway.
04:17 And that's that goes on so much.
04:20 That is the hardest thing to take because you do.
04:22 It's like you got you got beat twice in the same game.
04:24 No hope to hope to no hope.
04:26 Boom, you're done.
04:27 And and so, you know, fortunately, I did not have that game.
04:31 And I was happy about that because I would have been on the Iowa Hawkeyes last week.
04:35 Well, I tell you what, if you want to see Dr.
04:37 Rob's diagnosis of that play, just go to our YouTube channel.
04:39 Check out the docs diagnosis presented by Central Federal Credit Union.
04:42 And he does a whole diagram of it.
04:45 And we spent about I think like 10 minutes talking about that play specifically.
04:49 Hey, if you want to work with Scott Spreitzer directly, here's what you can do
04:52 because over the next half hour or so, you can learn how smart of a guy that Scott
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05:42 Now, Scott, I'm going to be honest.
05:43 I finally lost.
05:46 I was heading into last week.
05:48 I went two and one, as you pointed out, as we were texting
05:51 during the college football Saturday.
05:53 It's still a winning week, but I was trying to keep my unbeaten streak alive.
05:56 Well, two and one every week is going to make you a good deal of money
05:59 by the end of the season.
06:01 And you had a better.
06:01 I wish I was two and one last week in college football.
06:04 I go three and four with all plays last week, and it started out really well.
06:08 I was started out to win.
06:09 Oh, and I also started out with Wake Forest as my first game.
06:13 And Wake Forest won with like a second to go, you know, miracle win.
06:17 And I'm like, oh, that's going to be a big day, baby.
06:20 I got luck on my side.
06:21 Then we go to two and oh, with all sports overall.
06:24 The next thing you know, I'm two and one, two and two, two and three.
06:26 And there it went.
06:28 But it happens.
06:29 You know, it's funny because I can always tell real betters
06:33 from the fakes who just like to rip you online or on social media
06:38 like you guys get when you, you know, wear a certain school shirt or whatever.
06:41 They don't like Rob's analysis.
06:43 You know, the guys I have.
06:44 Go ahead, Travis.
06:45 Rob gets ripped for wearing a Florida State hoodie.
06:47 I get ripped for just being me.
06:49 Let's just put it that way.
06:51 I get ripped for being me.
06:52 Rob never gets ripped for his football knowledge.
06:54 It's just if he wears his Florida State hoodie,
06:57 because that's where his daughter goes to school.
06:59 Well, and of course, with me, I couldn't pick my nose, according to the I mean,
07:02 I've been reading some of these and I'm so bad, you know, I'm terrible.
07:07 I've lost like every year since I started this, you know.
07:09 So how does a guy last 30 years?
07:11 You know, he can't pick his nose.
07:13 But what I what I do like is I can always tell the people who are real betters
07:16 because they'll say, man, tough game or whatever.
07:19 Tough day, tough game.
07:20 We'll bounce back tomorrow.
07:21 You know, hey, I want a couple of guys, you know, because I go on there
07:25 and I'll say if I lost, I'm not a believer in hiding your losses.
07:28 That's chicken shit for one thing, among other stuff that's even worse than that.
07:32 But I will say I lost like I did.
07:34 And, you know, one guy's like, hey, man, we you know, we got a tough loss,
07:38 tough day or whatever.
07:39 And I'm like, yeah, sorry about that.
07:40 And they'll say, man, you've made me so much money over the last decade.
07:43 Don't worry about it.
07:44 You know, and you get some of those and you can tell the real betters
07:47 because they'll say, hey, you can't win them all.
07:49 Then you got the trolls with the fake names, you know, jibber jabber from wherever,
07:53 you know, and they'll have like two followers and they just rip the crap out of you.
07:56 It's it's it's funny because it used to it did used to bother me
08:00 when Twitter first came around.
08:02 And then I'm like, oh, my gosh, you just want to be me.
08:05 That's all it is.
08:06 They do. They want to live the Vegas lifestyle.
08:09 And before we dive into this week's games, let's take a look at the futures
08:12 because we had a little change at the top.
08:14 This these are the odds to win the college football playoff.
08:17 And for the longest time, Florida or not Florida, rather, Georgia
08:22 was the odds on favorite to win the college football playoff.
08:25 That has changed as Michigan has now jumped to the top of the list at plus 240.
08:31 Georgia Falls did plus 260.
08:33 Rob, look at their Florida state still in the hunt,
08:36 according to Betfred at plus 700, tied with with Ohio State.
08:40 When you look at these, Scott,
08:42 how do they line up with your power rankings?
08:44 And is this the kind of way you see it right now?
08:48 Yeah, I've got Michigan second week in a row now just ahead of Georgia.
08:52 And then I've got Ohio State, Oregon in the top five,
08:56 Alabama just outside the top five.
08:59 I've got Florida State, by the way, Rob, I've got them seventh.
09:02 And that group basically outside of Michigan, Georgia and Ohio State,
09:07 the next group is three points below Ohio State.
09:11 So there's like the group at the top, Michigan, Georgia and the Buckeyes.
09:14 And then there's like a next level.
09:16 The one team that I'm looking at these odds and I'm looking at,
09:20 like, you know, Texas 18 to one, Bama 15 to one.
09:23 I'm a little surprised that Oregon wasn't listed.
09:26 I've got Oregon in my in my top eight.
09:29 And in fact, if you go back to where I made Oregon before the season,
09:33 as to where they are now, you're talking almost a five percent.
09:36 I'm excuse me, a five point jump from where they began
09:40 before the season started with my power ratings.
09:42 And that's the thing, like with a lot of pro bettors and including myself,
09:46 you know, Oregon doesn't lose much from that loss to Washington.
09:50 That game could have easily gone either way.
09:52 So where the books might have to make changes for the public,
09:56 the public thinks, Oregon, OK, well, we forgot about them.
09:58 They lost the game.
09:59 Now they might drop like a tenth of a point on my power ratings
10:02 in a game like that or a loss like that.
10:04 You know, if those teams played ten times, probably be split down the middle.
10:07 Fifty fifty.
10:08 So I think I've got Oregon up above where a lot of people
10:11 and their perception have the Oregon Ducks, and that's why you don't see them
10:14 on that list.
10:15 Interesting part about Michigan and Rob, you and I talked a little bit about it
10:19 on the podcast is, you know, under a lot of scrutiny right now.
10:23 I think it's Michigan against the world.
10:24 Jim Harbaugh is saying it's Michigan against the world
10:26 because of the sign stealing thing.
10:27 Rob, did you hear Matt Rule today?
10:29 He or yesterday, rather, he talked about
10:31 so he was asked about sign stealing.
10:34 He said, listen, you can solve this.
10:36 Just put a microphone or a speaker in the helmet and it's solved.
10:40 He goes, it's interesting that high school and pro gets it right.
10:43 College gets it wrong.
10:45 And that's why probably more scoring is up.
10:47 And he wouldn't specifically go after Jim Harbaugh.
10:49 He goes, I'm not going to go after a guy when he's hurting
10:51 and going through some bad stuff.
10:52 I just thought that was pretty classy on rules part on the ways he talked about.
10:56 When you were in college, Rob, did you guys try to steal signs or was it
11:00 was it a was there a philosophy?
11:03 If we did, nobody ever really talked about it.
11:05 I'm sure somebody was looking over.
11:07 I there was way more of the old school running the play.
11:13 Yeah, I mean, and that's how we did it.
11:15 So Osborne would literally you were switching players out
11:19 literally every single play.
11:23 So, I mean, you'd switch out a wide receiver, you'd switch out
11:26 a running back, somebody would come in with that play.
11:29 If Osborne didn't want the play called on the field, occasionally he'd give
11:34 the quarterbacks a little bit of leeway.
11:36 Hey, if you see this on second down, go ahead and call the bootleg and.
11:39 Would just do it, but it was usually the play always came in
11:44 from the sideline with personnel.
11:46 So there was, there was no signal.
11:49 Yeah.
11:49 You know, Matt rule even said, Hey, we try to steal signs on, on Saturday.
11:54 I, and you and I talked about it, Rob and Scott, I don't know how you feel about it.
11:57 I've only I'm under the impression that you're trying to steal signs all the time.
12:02 It's just, it's part of doing business.
12:03 I'm not saying it's the right thing to do.
12:05 It's just what gets done, right?
12:07 Yeah.
12:07 Just not a well-liked guy, right?
12:09 I mean, Harbaugh, he's not a well-liked guy.
12:11 I happen to admire his coaching because he's been great at every level, you know,
12:15 relatively speaking to wherever he's been going back to, you know, coaching college
12:20 football at a lower level, let's say in San Diego.
12:23 Uh, but I think it's a witch hunt guys.
12:25 And I don't know why I just think it's a witch hunt.
12:27 It reminds me.
12:28 I'm not the first one to say this.
12:29 There was, I forget which host was talking about this on radio or TV the other day
12:33 when they said it reminded them of Pete Carroll.
12:34 And I was like, ding, ding, ding, ding.
12:36 It reminds me of Pete Carroll at USC.
12:38 They're going to chase another great coach out of the college
12:42 ranks and up to the NFL.
12:43 For some reason, I can't answer.
12:46 I just, you know, I'm a Jim Harbaugh fan.
12:47 I think he's incredible.
12:49 He's been there for several years.
12:50 He's built the program.
12:51 He didn't try to do it too fast.
12:53 He did it his way and they're dominating, you know, the
12:55 Buckeyes can't beat them lately.
12:56 So it's a situation where I do.
12:58 I think it's a witch.
12:59 I'm just like they do with me.
13:00 And I really like Harbaugh too.
13:02 I mean, it, it almost pains me to say that because I mean, for several years, I
13:07 talked about how much the guy bugged the hell out of me.
13:10 And now it's one of these things I like watching because his style of football,
13:14 the offensive line play, all of it's pretty amazing.
13:17 Um, but yeah, it's the whole signal thing.
13:22 I mean, it kind of came into vogue with the whole no huddle spread stuff where
13:28 you just flash the signs up on the sideline, but it's, I don't know.
13:32 It's, it seems stupid to me because again, yeah.
13:34 Within an individual game, teams are trying to do it.
13:39 Yeah.
13:40 Michigan obviously took it to the next level.
13:42 I just, I look at it in the sense of, does it matter?
13:45 No, everybody's doing it.
13:47 To some degree.
13:48 I don't know if everybody's sending dudes to other games to do it.
13:53 That's true.
13:54 And I think therein lies the big difference, but I think the team has the
14:00 resources, they would do it if it wasn't legal and they probably, a lot of teams
14:05 probably are doing it, even though it is, is illegal to do under NCAA rules.
14:10 There's somebody scouting in a stadium of 70,000 people.
14:13 I have always assumed about somebody's here.
14:14 I mean, how would you, how would you even know?
14:16 It is an interesting story and it's not over for sure as more keeps
14:21 coming out almost on a daily basis.
14:22 All right, here are the games we're going to be taking a look at tonight.
14:24 We've got some good ones.
14:25 Georgia at Florida, Ohio state, Wisconsin is an interesting matchup,
14:29 though I think the West has proven how bad of a division is and can't
14:34 compete with the East in the big 10.
14:36 Oregon's going to be at Utah and of course, Purdue and Nebraska.
14:41 Let's start with the first game tonight.
14:43 It's Georgia at Florida.
14:45 This is a rivalry.
14:46 We're going between the hedges is a, it's a two 30 game and CBS, Georgia,
14:50 14 and a half point favorite over the Gators you're over under at 47.
14:54 You know, you always have to decide.
14:57 And we talked about this last week, by the way, in the Ohio state Penn
15:01 state game, but you've always got to decide if a big line adjustment
15:04 from one season to the next is an over adjustment or the right adjustment.
15:08 And remember last year, you know, the Florida Gators were a, excuse me,
15:12 the Georgia Bulldogs were a huge, huge favorite over the Florida Gators
15:16 and like 23 and a half, and now they're 14 and a half.
15:20 So the first thing I do when I see a line like this on a game involving,
15:23 I don't know if they're, you know, I guess you could say two blue bloods.
15:27 I want to be able to go in and I want to be able to see if I think there's
15:30 that big of adjustment necessary.
15:32 And we talked about Ohio state Penn state last week, you know, last season,
15:36 the Buckeyes were 15 and a half and happy Valley then last week, they're
15:40 four and a half at home against Penn state and thought that was too much
15:43 of an adjustment for the reasons we mentioned, but you know, so should
15:47 an elite level, a still elite level, Georgia Bulldog team, that's maybe
15:52 a little bit less sexy than last year's Georgia Bulldog team lose eight
15:55 points in the same side, a neutral site in Jacksonville from where they were
15:59 last year, and I can't say that I can't, I can't find enough reasons.
16:03 I know Florida is better.
16:04 I've actually got Florida just inside my top 30 in power ratings.
16:08 Uh, Georgia, if they played last year's Georgia team, this year's
16:12 Bulldogs versus last year's this year's Bulldogs would be about a seven
16:15 and a half point underdog as far as I'm concerned in my power ratings are
16:18 concerned, uh, but you know, they cover spreads in this situation, nine to one.
16:23 The last three years when favored by 10 and a half to 21 points, they win
16:27 those games by 31 points per game.
16:29 They're not normally close.
16:30 What I've done so far this week, guys, I played the over, which at the time
16:34 was 45 and open 44 and a half.
16:36 Now it's up to 47.
16:37 So kind of buyer beware, caveat emptor or whatever, if you want to jump on that over.
16:41 But that's what I've done thus far.
16:42 I played the over, I lean towards Georgia.
16:45 I might jump in with the Bulldogs later this week.
16:47 Yeah, I do have a question because you don't bet the overs that often, right?
16:50 You're not a point total guy that often is the best time to bet the point total
16:55 earlier in the week or later in the week, or it doesn't really matter.
16:58 It's usually earlier in the week because the public's not big on, uh, on
17:03 totals on college football totals.
17:05 Uh, they love to play the marquee matchups and play the over every
17:07 time when it's a night game, a Monday night football game, a
17:10 Sunday night football game.
17:11 So in that scenario, if you want to play the over, it's kind of funny
17:16 because those big marquee matchups, night games, standalone games.
17:19 If you want to play the over, you better do it early in the week because
17:21 the public's going to drive it up.
17:23 If you want to play the under you wait till an hour before kickoff
17:26 and you play the under, but in this particular game, it's, it's
17:29 climbed two and a half points.
17:30 I made it 48 and I don't differentiate from the books that much.
17:35 Normally when it comes to a total, it was 44 and a half at one point.
17:38 Uh, so I jumped on it.
17:39 Small play.
17:40 Uh, I'll tell you what the people think about it real quickly, though.
17:42 I've got a friend of mine.
17:44 He 98% of his plays in college football are totals and he does
17:48 a really good job with totals.
17:49 So last football season, he's probably hitting about 63% midway through the
17:53 season, which is excellent for those people who don't know a professional
17:57 better hopes to hit 55 to 56% through the course of a season, so he's like
18:01 63% midway through the season.
18:04 And a client of his, his site calls up and says, can you switch
18:09 me to another cap or I hate totals.
18:11 63% winners and he doesn't want to bet totals.
18:15 So that'll show you the, uh, the, uh, how, how unpopular college football
18:19 totals are for the general public.
18:21 I mean, that's like handing you a lottery ticket.
18:23 That's a guaranteed winner.
18:24 You know, I don't want it.
18:25 It's got too many zeros in it.
18:27 Wow.
18:30 Hey, let's go to the big 10 for our second game.
18:32 It's the East West matchup.
18:34 Uh, in many years, this would be a classic one.
18:36 Uh, but we saw Wisconsin lose at home to Iowa a couple of weeks ago.
18:40 Ohio state visits Madison, Ohio state of 14 and a half point favored the
18:44 point total on this at 43 and a half.
18:47 Yeah, we'll start with my power readings.
18:49 I make Ohio state 18 and a half points better than Wisconsin on a neutral field.
18:52 So normally I give a Madison a little bit bigger home field
18:56 advantage number to the point spread.
18:58 Not so much this year.
18:59 We talked about them last week about the, the change in their look.
19:02 Their identity is just not working.
19:04 Now they got the fortunate win last week against Illinois, but
19:07 you know, you don't have Mordecai.
19:09 I never thought he was a good fit and what they're trying to do at this level.
19:12 Then he gets hurt.
19:12 He's been out for a couple of the games now, and this kid
19:15 Brayden Locke takes over.
19:16 And I'm looking at his numbers right now.
19:17 His two starts 36 for 71, just over five yards per pass.
19:22 Obviously bad.
19:23 The good news.
19:23 He's only thrown one pick in 71 attempts.
19:26 And then I looked at Illinois.
19:27 They ran like crazy against Wisconsin.
19:29 They ran for five yards per pop, 223 rushing yards of that game.
19:33 Ohio state, this might be the game where they finally get that ground game really
19:36 going because it hasn't been great all season, it's been around a hundred,
19:39 hundred and first in the country.
19:41 And then the folks can look at their screen right there and see the
19:44 advantage as far as the angle, the point spread situations are
19:48 concerned involving these two teams.
19:50 I mean, you know, the, these are the, the one that's saying about
19:53 the college football world team.
19:54 If I'm going to look at these kinds of angles and not so much into
19:57 metrics, I like those the most.
19:59 Cause you see what it says there, college football road teams.
20:03 It doesn't say Ohio state.
20:04 It doesn't say Wisconsin or whatever.
20:06 So what it's saying is, is that it encompasses all of college football.
20:11 You know, it's almost like a human nature angle, so to speak, rather,
20:14 you know, because with college football so often, then the reason I don't
20:18 look use trends or angles that much in college football is because you've got
20:21 coaching changes throughout the years.
20:23 You've got obviously players changing every couple of years.
20:26 So to say even Wisconsin, oh, and six against the spread of the last three
20:29 seasons, averaging less than 17 points per game in the scenario they're in this
20:33 week, you know, how much can you trust that?
20:35 Uh, because again, you're talking about a different coach, a different system,
20:40 a different style of play for the most part, but those college football general
20:44 angles are the ones I like the most.
20:46 And you can see what those teams do when they're pretty good defense,
20:49 especially a good scoring defense.
20:51 And that's the Buckeyes.
20:52 They're as good as it gets on the defensive side of the football.
20:54 So, uh, a lean towards the Buckeyes here.
20:56 I would play the Buckeyes or nothing in this game is how I do this one.
20:59 Robbie, you and I talk about it on a regular basis, just
21:02 how bad the West division is.
21:04 And I'm going to go back to Iowa real quick, because I actually think that
21:07 Gary Bart has set the bar too high.
21:09 For Brian Ferentz at 25 points per game.
21:12 And people are probably going, what are you ready for this?
21:15 Only six teams in total games in the big 10 are averaging 25 points a game.
21:21 And when you break it down to big 10 games, only, only four teams in the big
21:26 10 are averaging 25 points per game.
21:27 I mean, and I don't think, Oh, Iowa in, in big 10 games is I think like 17
21:36 points per game and overall it's like 19 and a half, but Wisconsin's even
21:41 below that 25 point in big 10 games.
21:43 I mean, the West is just so bad.
21:47 I can't trust any of those teams in the West.
21:49 Yeah.
21:50 The 25 point thing.
21:51 Yeah.
21:51 I mean, in hindsight, I mean, talk about a pipe dream.
21:55 Exactly.
21:57 The bar was set way too high.
21:58 And it was the wrong metrics.
22:00 I think you should measure guys on, you know, total point in total yards per game.
22:04 Rushing yards.
22:06 Do you make progress when it comes to national rankings as far as, as total
22:11 offense and stuff like that?
22:12 But Scott, I mean, I don't know how much big 10 West football you watch, but I
22:16 mean, you brought up the Wisconsin, Illinois game last week, Wisconsin
22:19 had to rally to beat Illinois.
22:20 Yeah.
22:21 They're down 14, right?
22:22 Go to the fourth quarter.
22:23 Yeah.
22:23 Um, as far as, you know what I would have done if I'm Kirk Ferentz and I'm
22:27 trying to get my kid to, you know, have to show something, I like what you
22:31 said about the yards per game.
22:32 What we talked about last week, net points per drive.
22:35 I want to see us in the top 40 in that points per drive.
22:38 I want to see improvements on offense and defense.
22:40 He could have set a number.
22:41 This is why coaches sometimes ought to look at some of the deep metrics, you
22:45 know, because you can really tell a lot about a team and it might be a team
22:48 that scores only 20 points per game.
22:50 But then you go in and you look and you say, you know, we average 4.5 yards per
22:53 carry.
22:54 We average 6.8 yards per pass.
22:56 You know, that's a half a yard better than it was last year.
22:58 Uh, the record wasn't much better.
23:00 We only scored 20 points per game, but you can see improvements being made.
23:04 I gauge that much more than points per game.
23:06 And how phony is some of that when you talk about, you know, a defense that
23:10 scores, you know, 1.8 points per game on average, you got to factor that into it.
23:14 You know, it's like, so again, I think if that was basically 90% of what brings
23:21 Brian Ferretz back or not, I think they, they gave them an kind of an unfair
23:25 number.
23:25 You gotta, you gotta look at what they're doing on the ground per play and through
23:28 the year per pass before you can make those decisions as far as I'm concerned.
23:32 Yeah.
23:32 It was, by the way, for Iowa, it's crappy.
23:34 But as a matter of fact, for most big 10 West teams, it's all crappy.
23:38 I want them to sweep their bowl games, by the way.
23:40 Yeah, exactly.
23:42 I know.
23:42 Uh, let's go out to the, uh, the pack 12.
23:45 This is an interesting matchup.
23:46 Oregon's going to be on the road, taking on Utah, two 30 game on Fox.
23:50 The ducks is six and a half point favorite.
23:52 Uh, the point total on this at 48.
23:54 Yeah, this one's been as high as seven.
23:56 I'm kind of looking at my opening numbers here.
23:58 It's been as low as five and a half right now.
24:00 Uh, basically six and a half in most books, couple of the sevens out there.
24:03 I got about 25 books on my screen in front of me here.
24:06 And it looks like three have seven of the rest have six
24:10 and a half for the most part.
24:11 Um, listen, I like landing, you know, when this guy's laying points, uh, he just
24:16 covers and they don't just cover, they beat these teams rather handily.
24:21 You know, he's 13 and four is a favorite and he wins those games by more than
24:25 three touchdowns a game, 24 per contest.
24:27 I didn't like the way Oregon got torched.
24:30 That scares me a little bit guys through the year, the last two games.
24:33 But the good news for the ducks is that the youths can't really rely on their
24:36 aerial game finally, by the way.
24:38 And it's, it's unfortunate for him, but hopefully we'll see him next season.
24:42 But finally they've ruled Kim rising out for the year.
24:44 He's been listed as questionable every single game, but now
24:47 he's ruled out for the season.
24:49 So, you know, I, I don't like the fact that gave up a bunch of yardage.
24:52 Utah doesn't have the consistent aerial game.
24:55 Yeah, they torched USC, but we've talked about USC and their defensive
24:59 issues in space over the course of the season, they've been burned
25:02 a couple of games now.
25:03 So I think if he can get six, which I do believe, again, I'm
25:07 looking, there's a couple out there.
25:08 Oregon at six or less is the play on this game at Utah is so tough, man.
25:13 That coaching staff has done such a fantastic job at turning
25:17 that stadium into a fortress.
25:19 I never feel good laying points against Utah, but that's the way I would have
25:22 to go here if I can get six or less.
25:24 Rob, I learned something from Scott today because he sent the, he sent the graphics
25:28 over and I said, what's chalk mean?
25:31 Did you see that he's 13 and four against the spread is chalk.
25:34 I left it in there because I knew I was going to ask.
25:40 So Scott, when somebody hears, you know, cause I hear chalk, I hear rock chalk,
25:44 Jayhawk, right?
25:45 I mean but chalk is just another word for.
25:48 It's just another word for the favorite.
25:51 You know, you'll hear some people will say, you know, oh, you're
25:55 nothing but a chalk eater.
25:56 That's a pro better probably talk, you know, just kind of give it his buddy.
25:59 Who's another pro better the business by saying you're a chalk eater that
26:02 all you do is play favorites, you know, that's all you do, you're a front runner.
26:06 And so, yeah, chalk just means favorite.
26:08 I have no idea how rock chalk Jayhawk came about other than the fact it rhymes a lot.
26:12 So that's about it.
26:14 That's about it.
26:15 I think that's about it.
26:16 You know, and with Kansas for a couple of years and I still don't know how
26:19 rock chalk Jayhawk, uh, uh, came up.
26:21 I, and if I'm not mistaken, I think the, the chalk might have to do a little with
26:25 the, I'm making this up, uh, with the limestone that they, they, they have
26:30 quarries down there and it was kind of my assumption, I guess.
26:33 I don't know if that's true or not either.
26:35 Um, our final game, uh, has Nebraska back at home.
26:39 Uh, they're taking on Purdue.
26:41 This is another, this is a big 10 West matchup, right?
26:45 This is, this is going to be, it has the potential to be ugly.
26:49 Uh, it's a two 30 game on FS one, Nebraska, two and a half point favored
26:54 and a low point total right now, according to bet Fred at 40.
26:57 It's kind of funny because I was watching, uh, one of the former Oscar
27:02 defenders, uh, character, Adam Carriker, who I'm sure you guys probably know.
27:05 Oh yeah.
27:06 We, we talked to Adam a lot.
27:07 So I was watching a video of his after the Nebraska game the other night,
27:10 kicking back and just getting his thoughts.
27:12 And he basically not paraphrasing, but he's basically, yeah, the game stunk,
27:17 but we won, you were four and three for the first time through seven games in
27:22 seven years or whatever it's been.
27:24 So, you know, I think the game against Illinois and the game against Purdue,
27:28 excuse me, the game against Northwestern and the game against Illinois, I think
27:31 is basically what we're going to be watching Nebraska every game for the rest
27:35 of this season.
27:36 It's just, it's ugly.
27:37 It's hard to watch.
27:39 You know, I I'm sitting there last week and I've got really nothing
27:43 major going until Saturday night.
27:44 So I'm watching the Nebraska game and I'm like, I can't watch this.
27:47 You know, you get frustrated, you turn it off, you fumble inside the, the, the
27:51 red zone, you fumble at your own 10, you throw a pick on the first play.
27:54 And it's just like, I can't even watch it.
27:56 I'll tune it back in later.
27:57 If they're, you know, within a couple of points of Northwestern, they go on to win.
28:00 What I like, what Matt Rule's doing is this team believes it can win now.
28:04 Ugly games.
28:05 The defense is fantastic.
28:06 So I'm looking at Purdue.
28:08 The interesting thing is I made the number three and a half, which is where it was
28:12 not that long ago, a couple of days ago.
28:14 It's down to two and a half.
28:16 The public is betting Nebraska.
28:18 The respected money, so to speak, has been betting on Purdue plus the points.
28:22 I really didn't think respected money would get that involved in this game to
28:26 move this game in either direction on Nebraska or Purdue, but listen, I'm
28:30 looking at Purdue, they're not good on either side of the line of scrimmage.
28:33 I mean, at least Nebraska has got defense, but we talked about net points
28:37 per drive last week, so I looked that up for this week's matchup.
28:40 Nebraska was like 71st.
28:41 They're now up to 65th.
28:42 Thank you, defense.
28:44 And Purdue's 97th.
28:47 Here's the thing, they're eight points better in power ratings than
28:50 Northwestern, Purdue is, and that's baked into that number.
28:53 Nebraska was 10 and a half, 11 last week.
28:55 Now they're two and a half for the most part, some threes still out there.
28:58 I have Nebraska, a one point favorite on a neutral field.
29:01 I give them two and a half points for Memorial Stadium.
29:03 Nowhere near what it was when Dr.
29:06 Rob was playing for the Huskers, the home field advantage.
29:09 So I make them three and a half and at two and a half, you know, less than three,
29:13 I would recommend a play on Nebraska.
29:15 But man, it's like so hard to watch this football team.
29:19 And there's a lot of teams, as you mentioned, in the Big Ten West.
29:21 You watch Iowa Purdue?
29:23 Well, there's your crystal ball for Nebraska Purdue.
29:25 You know, it's just going to be another ugly, sloppy game.
29:28 Those stats everybody can see about Matt Rule gives some hope also because
29:32 and those are all his college numbers.
29:34 You can see what he's done, you know, in situations that he's in.
29:37 His teams get better as the season progresses.
29:39 You can see by that bottom stat.
29:41 And also his teams have done well against weak opposition.
29:45 Teams playing 250 to 400 football.
29:47 So, you know, there's hope.
29:48 I think they can win this game by a field goal.
29:50 Rob, I want to bring you into this conversation
29:53 because we recorded the podcast on Sunday.
29:56 We found out on Monday that Turner Corcoran out for the season,
29:59 Ethan Piper out for the season.
30:01 Newelly, he's going to miss the Purdue game.
30:03 How detrimental, if at all, is that to this Nebraska offense that struggles anyway?
30:08 I mean, at least a little bit.
30:10 I know a lot of people are.
30:12 I'm kind of hearing two things.
30:13 Part of people are like, "Oh my God, how are we losing these guys?
30:17 And how are they going to overcome it?"
30:20 Yeah, the depth is thin there.
30:21 And you haven't seen a lot of other guys play.
30:24 So it'll be interesting to see because you're putting
30:30 Teddy Prohaska back out there.
30:32 I'm going to screw.
30:35 Is it Evan Jenkins?
30:36 Is one of the other offensive guards that's going out there.
30:40 Ben Scott's banged up a little bit.
30:43 I mean, they've got, I think Henry Lutovsky's probably going to be
30:49 the other starting guard, I think they said.
30:51 So you've got guys who've played.
30:53 Is it me?
30:56 It's not much after that.
30:57 You can't afford many more injuries.
30:58 No, you really can't.
31:00 And I mean, and that's the thing where Nebraska's at right now
31:02 is that the depth is really thin.
31:04 Now in terms of, it's not like you had a bunch of, like really, really,
31:13 it's not like Will Shields got hurt and now you're replacing him with
31:18 Henry Lutovsky or Zach Wiegert.
31:21 Zach Wiesniska got hurt.
31:21 Yeah.
31:22 Or Zach Wiegert got hurt.
31:24 Or, I mean, even like, I mean, it's not like a Cam Juergens.
31:29 I mean, the kids, I mean, well, he did get hurt, I guess for Philly.
31:33 But I mean, you've got a guy who's now an NFL starter in his second year.
31:39 It's not like Cam Juergens got hurt and you're putting Lord
31:44 knows who in, in his place.
31:45 It's, it's, you had some very okay starting offensive linemen who are
31:52 getting replaced by guys who probably aren't that far behind them in terms
31:58 of overall talent and capability.
32:00 I don't think it makes a major difference.
32:03 And frankly, some of these guys, I kind of would maybe like to see more out
32:07 there and just see, Hey, put some of these guys in a full game
32:10 and let's see what they can do.
32:11 So I think it, I thought, I thought Rob made a great point because like when I
32:16 look at, you know, I don't look at any one individual on the offensive line
32:19 outside of maybe a very good center who might be banged up, maybe a left tackle.
32:23 Uh, but for me, that's more of the pros than in college, but I
32:26 do look for cluster injuries.
32:28 You know, got an offensive line that's missing three people.
32:30 However, if you're talking about Nebraska's offense or the Iowa
32:33 Hawkeye offense, you're averaging 16, 17 points or whatever in conference play.
32:38 It's not going to be that big of a difference.
32:40 And that's basically what Rob was saying.
32:42 It's not like I've got, you know, three, uh, Michigan Wolverine
32:46 offensive linemen, you know, two tackles in the center who are out.
32:49 Oh my gosh.
32:50 You know, these guys are all Americans playing on Sundays next year.
32:52 Now I got to replace them with a sophomore, some underclassmen
32:56 who's hardly ever played.
32:57 That's such a big difference or a really good, smooth offense.
32:59 That's averaging 30, 35 points per game.
33:02 When those guys miss games, that, that alerts me more to maybe I should
33:06 stay away from this team than a team that's already struggling off on offense.
33:10 You can only go so far down and they're already pretty far down, you know, net
33:13 points per drive on offense, Nebraska is really bad and so it's like,
33:16 you can't get a whole lot worse.
33:18 Yeah.
33:18 And the, and the really good, I mean, I didn't want to phrase it that way, Scott,
33:22 but that's kind of what I was trying to say.
33:24 But the, you, there is a dynamic there where if you're a really, really bad
33:29 team and you lose several key starters, I shouldn't even say that
33:35 you lose several starters.
33:36 I don't know if it makes that big a difference.
33:39 Conversely, if you're, if Michigan or Georgia loses, has a cluster of injuries
33:45 like this, they can reload with a couple of other well-developed, I'm not talking
33:50 about the four-star guys that transfer to Nebraska, I'm talking about the
33:54 four-star guys that stay at Georgia, that stay at Michigan, those guys that
33:59 are stepping in as replacements.
34:01 It yeah, you just, you don't see that big of a drop-off.
34:05 I mean, I kind of liken it to Travis.
34:08 I think we talked on the podcast about Nebraska 94.
34:11 You lose Mike Minter at, uh, did we talk about this in the podcast?
34:17 We brought Minter up.
34:18 He, we lost him at the, you lost him at free safety, right?
34:20 Yeah.
34:21 So Minter gets hurt, he's arguably the best defensive player on the team in 1994.
34:26 He's gone second, second game of the season.
34:28 He's ACL injuring is out.
34:30 Well, they replaced him with Tony Veland, who goes on to become an NFL guy.
34:34 So it's, yeah, it's how do you, I mean, there's, there's a, probably
34:40 maybe a tiny drop off there, but it's not a big one.
34:43 It's just like Rob, this is what my thoughts are.
34:47 Like you're averaging, let's say they were averaging 28 points per game and
34:50 they're nowhere close to that, but let's say they're averaging 28 points
34:52 per game and they don't have depth.
34:54 Let's say it's the same group of guys that are playing now.
34:57 All of a sudden you lose a couple of the guys up front.
34:59 That means a lot to me.
35:01 Yeah, it does.
35:02 Literally, you know, less, you know, they're not averaging a lot of points.
35:05 They're not moving the ball anyway.
35:06 So it's still going to be on the defense.
35:09 It's going to be on Harvard throwing no picks or no more than one.
35:13 And it can't be a pick six.
35:14 You know, it's going to be turnovers on offense, limiting those and the
35:18 defense playing as well as it normally has this year, that's what it'll come down to.
35:23 Again, I really believe that now Travis said it, they don't have
35:26 any more room for injuries.
35:27 That part's true.
35:28 You know, no doubt about it.
35:29 They have no more room for injuries.
35:30 Yeah.
35:30 The thing that'll be interesting in this one is that there are some freshmen on
35:35 that offensive line that I think could be very good players, I think are
35:39 going to be very good players.
35:40 Um, I I'm kind of surprised we didn't see their names get brought up by
35:46 the coaching staff in this.
35:48 And I think the reason is, is because I think they want a red shirt.
35:51 I'm I think they want to get to the point where, okay, there's only four
35:55 games left, including maybe a possible bowl game.
35:58 Now we're going to start playing those guys a lot more.
36:02 And I think that's where you'll see those guys kind of starting to show up.
36:05 And that's where I like that.
36:06 One more point.
36:07 I'm sorry.
36:07 One more point.
36:08 The sports books.
36:10 Like I said, when I made this number, I made Nebraska three and a half just a
36:13 few days ago, that's where the number was.
36:15 So there might be sharp money coming in on Purdue for some of the reasons we're
36:20 talking about with the injuries, but the books didn't make a change because
36:24 Nebraska has off its line injuries.
36:25 They would have been three and a half when it opened, but if they had all
36:29 those starters, even if they're recognizing it doesn't matter either.
36:32 I mean, now again, they might lose this game and maybe that's going to be one
36:37 of the main causes that they can't move the ball at all against Purdue.
36:40 And in that case, the sharp betters jump in and they say, okay, cluster
36:43 injuries, we're jumping on this number.
36:45 But the books have said it's three and a half, whether they're
36:47 their starters or not.
36:48 And how about it?
36:49 It's Bill Murray.
36:49 It just doesn't matter.
36:51 It just doesn't matter.
36:54 Well, look at the, well, I guess my, my question, and at some point, some of
36:58 these injuries do start stacking up.
37:01 I mean, you lose a couple running backs early in the year.
37:04 Then you lose Marcus Washington, a wide receiver.
37:07 Now you've lost three offensive linemen at some point, it does become a little
37:13 bit of a numbers game here and you do start to see a trend downward.
37:18 I just, I'm not sure it's going to, if we see a doubt, if we see anything
37:23 moving down, it's going to be a trend.
37:25 You're not going to see the sharp drop off.
37:27 And I'm not rolling my eyes at what you guys are saying.
37:30 I just keep glancing up at the baseball game.
37:32 So I just want to let you know that.
37:33 Hey, real quickly.
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38:01 season, use the promo code parlay.
38:04 And if you like what you've heard from Scott tonight, and hopefully you
38:06 have, because he's, he's really good at what he does and we like to
38:10 talk to him each and every week.
38:11 Uh, text the word doc talk to the number two nine zero two two and get a free
38:15 $60 trial, the premium member picks from Scott or visit doc sports.com and sign
38:21 up for the free 60 on the upper left hand, uh, side of the website, gentlemen.
38:26 It's always a pleasure to talk football with you.
38:28 And it's always a pleasure to talk behind the points.
38:30 Fred, uh, hope you enjoyed the show tonight.
38:32 You guys have fun.
38:32 Absolutely.
38:33 Always.
38:34 I get to talk to Scott.
38:36 Yeah, I get bummed when I have to watch your videos on.
38:39 I get, I don't get to be there.
38:40 You know, I, I watched those throughout the week and usually it's like,
38:43 oh, you guys are great.
38:45 You know what I'm sitting there, man.
38:46 I got to get me some good beverages.
38:47 I'm writing down.
38:48 I wrote that.
38:49 What was the purple Hayes one the other day?
38:51 I forget the job.
38:52 I beat a, I typed in a beat as I'm watching your show and I'm like, oh,
38:57 purple Hayes and it's in places in Vegas.
38:59 I got to check it out.
39:00 I got a shipment in my, again, I've said, I've said this on the podcast, but my,
39:05 my place of employment is, is like, are we like a distributor now?
39:09 I got a shipment from Idaho the other day.
39:12 So I got a shipment of Idaho beer coming in.
39:14 So that's what Rob and I are going to be drinking this weekend.
39:16 Uh, and it looks really good.
39:18 I haven't even sampled yet.
39:19 Rob, I got to sit in the fridge.
39:20 It's going to be a beat up by the way.
39:22 Should I try it?
39:23 Yeah.
39:24 Well, they've got purple Hayes, but they also have a blueberry.
39:27 That's really good.
39:28 It's made in new Orleans and you mean the strawberry, the
39:32 purple Hayes is the blueberry.
39:33 No, no, no.
39:34 It's not.
39:34 It's a different one.
39:35 Rob purple.
39:37 He's in the blueberry.
39:37 Different.
39:38 Yes.
39:39 Oh, I'll mix them up.
39:41 I'll get those.
39:42 And I had those like combined in my head that that was, they're different beers.
39:47 Cause I know I've had them both.
39:48 I just, yeah.
39:50 Yeah.
39:51 All right.
39:51 For dr.
39:52 Rob Zaduski, I'm Travis justice.
39:53 Thanks for watching behind the points.
39:55 Brett presented by bet bread sports.
39:58 Yeah.
39:58 (eerie music)
40:01 (whooshing)