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00:00 Cheers and happy Wednesday.
00:02 Welcome to another edition of Behind the Point Spread
00:04 presented by Betfords Sports.
00:05 I'm Travis Justice.
00:06 This is, as Dr. Rob Zaniska likes to say,
00:09 the best college football show you probably never heard of
00:13 on YouTube, but the more you watch it,
00:15 the more you're gonna go, you know what?
00:16 I need to tune in each and every Wednesday.
00:18 It is a live call-in show, so if you wanna participate,
00:20 all you have to do is call 402-543-5556.
00:24 That's 402-543-5556.
00:26 If you don't wanna call in,
00:28 there are other ways to interact with us.
00:30 You can use, boy, my son just cracked a beer.
00:34 (laughing)
00:35 That was really loud.
00:36 That was really loud.
00:38 You can interact with us on Facebook
00:41 and just use the comment section,
00:43 or if you're watching on YouTube,
00:44 you can also just use the comment section on YouTube.
00:48 You heard the guys laughing,
00:49 so let's go ahead and bring 'em in right now.
00:52 Scott Spreicher, who's right over to my left,
00:54 and at the bottom of the screen is your
00:58 friendly neighborhood doctor, Dr. Rob Zadar.
01:00 - That might've been me.
01:01 - That was you?
01:01 - That might've been me, sorry.
01:03 - That was weird, 'cause it sounded--
01:04 - I thought I was still on mute.
01:07 - It sounded like it was in this room.
01:10 That was bizarre.
01:11 I have really good headphones, that is what it is.
01:14 - It's either that or it's the speaker you set up
01:16 you have me on right now.
01:18 - So you're drinking a beer, I'm drinking a bourbon,
01:20 and Scott Spreicher's drinking a what?
01:23 - He's drinking a Coke Zero.
01:25 - Which might be the least healthy of the three of us.
01:28 - Yes, it is.
01:29 It not only sounded like it was in your studio there,
01:33 Travis, but I was starting to wonder if my dog
01:35 finally figured out how to pop a cold one.
01:37 That's a lot of wisdom in my home office here.
01:40 - I mean, that was like just a crisp, clean open, Rob.
01:45 I'm impressed.
01:47 - It's an Empyrean brewing, so I don't--
01:51 - What are you drinking?
01:52 Are you drinking an IPA, are you drinking a stout?
01:54 What are you drinking?
01:54 - This would be their Mind Over Mango IPA.
01:58 - Ooh, that actually sounds--
01:59 - It's a pretty good one.
02:00 - Yeah, that sounds pretty good.
02:01 - It's a pretty good one.
02:03 - That sounds pretty good.
02:04 Hey, before we get started, you see Scott Spreicher with us.
02:06 Of course, if you like what you hear from Scott Spreicher,
02:09 you wanna work with Scott Spreicher,
02:10 text the word DOCTALK to the number 29022
02:14 and get a free $60 trial of premium member picks from Scott.
02:18 Or you can visit docsports.com and sign up for the free 60
02:21 on the upper left hand of the website.
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02:27 Check out the pro football bonus,
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02:42 How about a parlay bonus for you?
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02:57 Scott, are you a parlay guy?
02:59 You big parlay guy?
03:00 - I can't remember the last time I played a parlay,
03:03 but you know, some guys like it.
03:05 You know what I say all the time?
03:06 Listen, if you're looking to do this on a professional
03:10 or semi-professional basis, you don't really play parlays,
03:13 but if you're looking to have fun,
03:14 entertainment, 20 bucks here, 10 bucks there,
03:17 fire away, man, have fun.
03:19 Make the game even more fun than it actually is.
03:21 It's already a good time.
03:22 And so I've got no problem with people
03:24 who like to do that stuff.
03:25 I'll play some teasers, six point teasers in the NFL.
03:28 Don't tease college, that's a golden no-no,
03:30 but when it comes to the NFL, I'm all over the...
03:33 By the way, I got to say something real quick here
03:35 before we move on.
03:36 I want to know who that guy is under my name
03:39 in that still photo that you showed that has brown hair.
03:42 That's pretty impressive.
03:44 - Well, if you would update your headshot from the internet,
03:48 we would be able to get a new one.
03:49 I'm just trying to make you look younger, man.
03:51 - Oh, I appreciate it.
03:52 I got to get a new picture taken maybe,
03:54 but it's better than the one they use in Phoenix.
03:56 I do a show in Phoenix on Fridays
03:58 and the guys use one from about 2006.
04:01 And I look like I'm getting ready to shoot
04:05 Zoolander part two, the Ben Stiller part.
04:07 It's like scary as it gets.
04:10 Blonde hair, looks like I was frosting and I wasn't.
04:13 Light blue shirt, had hair, the whole shebang.
04:16 6'1", 190.
04:17 Now I'm six, now I've shrunk.
04:19 I'm six foot, but I'm about 225.
04:21 (laughing)
04:23 - Hey, you said something before we get started.
04:25 I do want to bring this up.
04:26 You said doing teasers in college is a big no-no.
04:30 Explain why.
04:31 First of all, for somebody who may not know,
04:33 explain what a teaser is
04:34 and then why you don't do it in college football.
04:38 - Yeah, you could play seven point teasers,
04:39 six point teasers, some places 10 point teasers,
04:42 things like that.
04:43 And then of course the money you got to plunk down
04:45 in order to win those teasers changes
04:47 with whatever the amount of points you're using
04:49 in that teaser.
04:50 So for me, in the NFL, I probably play,
04:54 I'm gonna say one, I'd say maybe two teasers
04:57 every couple of weeks.
04:58 Six point teasers is what I do.
05:01 And I'll explain, first of all, a teaser,
05:02 like I'll take maybe a favorite,
05:04 couple of favorites that are maybe a six
05:06 or seven point favorite, tease them down to pick or one
05:10 and tie them together.
05:12 And I only play two point, two team teasers.
05:14 I don't play anything more than a two team NFL teaser.
05:17 College football, the reason you don't play teasers
05:20 is because if you go back over the last 30 plus years,
05:24 you're gonna see that the average final score
05:27 is over 12 points away from the spread on average.
05:31 And so it just makes no sense at all
05:34 to jump and play on college football
05:36 or even college basketball teasers
05:38 because just that final score on average over the long haul
05:41 over 30 years now is that far off in college football,
05:44 over 12 points.
05:45 NFL, it's about eight points over the last 30 years
05:48 away from the spread,
05:49 which makes it a little bit more reasonable to play teasers.
05:52 But I hear, I watch these shows on like network TV
05:54 and there's a certain gambling show on ESPN
05:57 and they say things like,
05:58 oh, the Niners are like 16 over so-and-so
06:03 and I'm gonna take so-and-so and tease it up to 22.
06:06 Absolutely ridiculous.
06:09 And that's a good litmus test for asking people
06:12 if they're really into betting
06:13 because if you're really into betting,
06:14 you know that in the NFL,
06:16 you tease pick up to six or six to pick
06:21 or you tease off of one point or up to maybe two points.
06:25 You don't tease up anything more than from two up to eight
06:28 or anything higher.
06:30 Like you don't tease a favorite of more than eight down
06:34 because you're talking about getting that key number of three
06:36 and things like that.
06:37 So it's kind of funny when I watch
06:39 some of these programs on TV
06:40 and everybody's into gambling now,
06:41 oh, it's a thing to do.
06:43 And then somebody will say,
06:43 I've got a two team team
06:44 and it's way out of the parameters
06:46 of what they should be betting.
06:47 And right then I'm like, okay, he's a sports anchor.
06:50 He's never been a better in his life.
06:52 - See, you should write a book where it has like,
06:55 you can be like an offensive coordinator
06:57 where they look down and say,
06:58 okay, here's my cheat sheet.
06:59 Is that if it's this,
07:01 that you'd probably make a lot of money using that.
07:03 - It's not a bad idea.
07:04 Do I have to share it now?
07:06 - No, no.
07:07 Well, you just gotta give me some royalties
07:08 since it was my idea, right?
07:10 - There you go.
07:12 - You know, each and every week
07:13 we've been doing a college football metric
07:15 and something to look at during a game
07:18 that gamblers like Scott will look at
07:21 and handicappers and stuff like that.
07:24 And there's so many different metrics out there.
07:25 And Scott, we're taking a look at a unique one tonight,
07:28 rushing rate or yards over expectancy.
07:31 - Yeah, basically, and by the way,
07:34 these are like serious metrics
07:35 that we've been talking about the last couple of weeks.
07:38 And I think next week I'm gonna come back
07:39 with something that's not only a real easy
07:41 to understand, but real easy to follow
07:44 on a week to week basis.
07:45 But for now, we're gonna keep it at a calculus level.
07:48 But rushing rate or yards over expectancy,
07:51 the metric really does indicate how many extra yards
07:54 a rusher gained or lost over or under
07:58 those he actually rushed for.
08:00 So an example would be if a player ran for 100 yards
08:03 and his rushing yards over expectancy was 90,
08:07 he outperformed that rushing yards over expectancy
08:11 by 10 yards.
08:12 And it's not just like, let's say,
08:14 a running back averages 90 yards per game rushing
08:17 and now he rushes for 100.
08:18 So he went over that expectancy rate.
08:21 It does factor that into the equation.
08:24 It also factors defensive stats against the run
08:27 into the equation before you go into the game.
08:29 And finally, the final thing is that you also factor in
08:33 when he ran for that yardage.
08:36 Was it third and 15 and he gained eight yards
08:39 with a minute to go in the game?
08:40 And his team was running out the clock
08:42 'cause they were up seven or the team had no chance
08:45 to come back and he got a handoff late in the game.
08:48 So that all goes into the mix.
08:50 Now, to take this one step further
08:52 and how you can use this is an underdog
08:55 with a high rush rate over expectancy.
08:58 A team getting points is if their percentage
09:03 goes over that rushing yards over expectancy
09:06 by a certain amount of yardage
09:09 and they're going up against a team
09:10 that's favored against them
09:12 who has below average rushing stats defensively,
09:15 then what happens is you've got an underdog
09:17 that may be able to control the tempo
09:20 quite a bit in that game.
09:21 You might have a seven point underdog
09:23 and all of a sudden you wanna jump on that team
09:25 because they fit the parameters of this metric
09:29 and they're able to keep that ball
09:30 and keep that opposing offense off the field.
09:32 And on the flip side of that,
09:34 if you got a favorite who's top 30
09:36 with a rushing rate over expectancy
09:38 against an underdog with a strong defensive rush number,
09:42 that means that that favorite
09:43 might have to change things up they do
09:45 if they're heavily dependent on the run.
09:47 They might have to change things.
09:48 They might have to throw the football more.
09:49 They might not be able to get those yardage
09:51 they normally do because the underdogs
09:53 has such strong defensive numbers.
09:55 And so you're able to look at an underdog
09:57 in that case again.
09:58 Of all the metrics we've talked about,
10:00 I probably, maybe I should look at this more,
10:02 but I probably use this the least
10:04 out of everything we've talked about thus far.
10:06 But it does, you know what it does for me?
10:08 And it doesn't create a whole lot of bets for me
10:11 as far as the underdogs are concerned.
10:12 It keeps me off of favorites
10:14 that you're paying a premium to lay.
10:16 You know, if a team should be a six point favorite
10:18 and they're laying eight and a half,
10:19 I might not play the underdog,
10:20 but it's gonna keep me off that favorite.
10:22 And it saves you from losing some money
10:24 throughout the course of the season.
10:26 - Rob, you're geeking out at this, man.
10:27 I know you are.
10:28 I know you're geeking out on this stat.
10:30 - Well, the thing is I'm looking at it.
10:32 It seems like, I don't know.
10:34 I mean, like I said, I'm not a big gambler,
10:37 but it seems like a very after the fact stat.
10:41 I mean, does that make sense when I say that?
10:43 I mean, it seems like a past performance kind of thing.
10:48 - More than any other metric we've talked about.
10:50 It definitely is.
10:51 I'll tell you, and that's why I don't use this
10:53 as much as the others.
10:55 It may, again, keep me off a favorite
10:57 that maybe shouldn't be laying as many points as they are
10:59 because they might have to adjust their offensive game plan
11:02 that they don't normally have to adjust
11:03 or the underdog might be in a situation
11:07 where they can control the temple more.
11:09 I'll give you a really good example.
11:10 And I think, Rob, this is hitting on
11:12 exactly what you're saying.
11:13 And I'm going to use baseball for an example.
11:16 The network showed a stat last week
11:18 going into the wildcard games
11:20 where if a team in a game out-homered their opponent
11:24 in that game, they were 123 and 33
11:27 since 2018 in the playoffs.
11:29 So then the question is, okay, well,
11:31 how do you predict that that's going to happen
11:34 or how do you factor that into your handicapping
11:36 for an upcoming game?
11:37 It's something that already happened.
11:38 And the best way I can say on something like that
11:41 as an example is that you look if that game,
11:44 in that game, if that team,
11:45 if one team has 240 homers on the season,
11:48 the other team has 150, okay, checkmark number one.
11:52 Now let's look at the pitchers.
11:54 If the team that hits all the homers
11:56 goes up against a pitcher with a high home run rate,
11:59 well, there's your second checkmark
12:01 and you can take a chance at playing on that team
12:04 and you usually do it very well.
12:05 But again, there's so much past info, so to speak,
12:09 that it becomes a little bit tougher to predict.
12:11 That's why I use this the least amount of all the metrics
12:14 that we've talked about thus far.
12:15 And I hope I said that clearly enough
12:17 to where people can understand who are watching this.
12:20 - It's pretty much went over my head
12:22 because I'm not a mathematician.
12:23 I'm not very smart.
12:24 Rob Smart, he understood right away.
12:27 It's kind of like a past thing.
12:29 But we were talking before we went on the air,
12:31 Tom Osborne would have loved this stat, right?
12:34 You were talking about how Tom Osborne would have loved,
12:36 not for gambling purposes,
12:37 but would have measured something like that.
12:39 - Well, I think he would have.
12:42 I mean, it's, but he had all of these breakdowns
12:45 that went into how he kind of game planned.
12:50 I mean, the whole game plan,
12:52 what plays he was gonna use was all based around
12:54 this kind of statistical analysis.
12:57 And I mean, when I look at this one,
12:58 I mean, the thing that I look at
13:00 is that it looks like the value is,
13:02 is where you've got like,
13:03 I guess I'd call it a big differential against teams.
13:07 If you've got two teams that seem like one's
13:11 by far and away the favorite,
13:13 they use this kind of stat like you said,
13:15 'cause you're looking for that value in bets.
13:18 And if you've got a team that's kind of a decided favorite,
13:21 but maybe, well,
13:23 maybe you don't wanna put money on that favorite.
13:27 I mean, what's the underdog able to do
13:29 when it comes to stopping the rush?
13:32 So it makes sense to me in that regard.
13:35 I just like at first glance, when I looked at it though,
13:37 it looks like one of these stats that it's like,
13:39 okay, this seems very past performance oriented.
13:43 And I get that, that obviously has to play into this,
13:47 but it's kind of that real time as you're watching a game.
13:52 This isn't the kind of stat that you'd be sitting there
13:56 looking at a game going, okay,
13:57 is this the kind of thing that I can evaluate in real time
14:01 if I made the right bet or not.
14:04 - Yeah, well, the one thing you could do with this,
14:05 and not that I'm saying that I do it,
14:07 but it was kind of funny as you were talking,
14:08 I was thinking about it,
14:10 is that let's say you do have an underdog
14:12 that you've projected to potentially,
14:15 if they do things the right way
14:16 that they've been doing all season,
14:18 that they can control the tempo of a game
14:20 with their running game and cover that number
14:22 because the other team's not gonna have their offense
14:24 on the field as much as that team is used to.
14:27 And then you're watching the game and you realize,
14:29 wow, those stats on that underdog, the rushing stats,
14:32 the rushing rate over expectancy
14:34 isn't quite working in this game.
14:37 You can live bet a little bit on that favorite
14:40 if things aren't going that way.
14:42 So that's kind of just something I was thinking about
14:44 as you were making your point, which was a good point.
14:46 I think you can live bet this a little bit.
14:48 - Eric writes in and says,
14:50 hey, Ed Parent Teacher Conference
14:51 has gotten me a little late to the party.
14:53 Priority's all is now let's win some money.
14:55 Man, don't go to Parent Teacher Conferences.
14:57 I never went to a Parent Teacher Conference, ever, ever.
15:01 Here's what I did with Parent Teacher Conference.
15:03 I think it's a basic one.
15:06 I went to the teachers and said,
15:07 if you have a problem, call me.
15:08 Otherwise, you don't want me to go
15:09 to Parent Teacher Conferences
15:10 because that's taken up much of your time
15:13 and it's taken up much of my time.
15:14 So you just go ahead and do whatever you need.
15:17 - Well, I stopped going years ago.
15:19 And what happened, not just because she got older,
15:21 but I think I went once or twice.
15:22 And I remember my daughter was like in the fifth grade,
15:25 which out here, I believe it's that way back there too.
15:27 Middle school starts in sixth grade out here.
15:30 Not like when I grew up, it was seven through nine.
15:32 And so I went to her fifth grade,
15:36 whatever, Parent Teacher Conference.
15:37 And I'm sitting there talking to her teacher,
15:38 which we actually became friends
15:40 with the teacher and her husband.
15:42 But she goes, what do you do for a living?
15:45 I mean, this is the first question.
15:47 Well, I go, I'm in the sports betting industry.
15:49 Why?
15:50 I saw you on TV the other night
15:51 talking about a college basketball game,
15:54 blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
15:55 And I'm thinking, oh my God, I'm telling my husband,
15:57 his kid's in my class.
15:59 So that was the last time I went.
16:02 - Well, see, now the thing that happens
16:03 at Parent Teacher Conference is,
16:05 hey, the parent goes to the teacher.
16:07 I saw you on OnlyFans the other night.
16:09 - Yeah, the parent says to the teacher, yeah, exactly.
16:13 - Sorry, Rob, sorry.
16:15 Didn't mean to go that way.
16:16 - This is the guy who does his betting
16:17 at a strip club in Iowa.
16:19 So take it for what it's worth.
16:22 - That's fair.
16:22 All right, here's tonight's games.
16:24 We're gonna take a look at four of them
16:26 on the docket for you.
16:26 Iowa State taking on Cincinnati in a Big 12 matchup.
16:30 An undefeated matchup in the Pac-12.
16:32 That's a rarity, by the way, in the Pac-12.
16:34 Doesn't happen that often.
16:36 Oregon is at Washington.
16:37 Huge game for SC and Notre Dame.
16:39 Notre Dame trying to bounce back.
16:41 Another just brutal part of that Notre Dame schedule.
16:44 And then we're gonna wrap it up
16:45 with the Iowa-Wisconsin game.
16:46 The winner of this game probably gonna be
16:48 in the driver's seat, should we say,
16:51 for the Big 10 West division.
16:53 If you have any questions for Scott Spritzer,
16:55 Dr. Rob Zadisk or even myself,
16:57 not that I have a lot to add,
16:58 402-543-5556.
17:01 Again, 402-543-5556.
17:05 Scott, our first game up, Iowa State.
17:08 Coming off a nice win against TCU.
17:10 Going to Cincinnati, an 11 o'clock game on FS1.
17:14 Cincinnati a five-point favorite.
17:16 You're over under 44 and a half.
17:18 - Yeah, you know, both teams top 50
17:20 as far as everybody's power ratings are concerned.
17:22 They're not at the top 40,
17:23 but they're in that 41 to 49 range.
17:26 The difference is that since he has improved
17:29 their power rating numbers by a couple of points
17:31 since the start of the season,
17:32 and Iowa State has dropped in the power ratings
17:34 a little bit since the start of the season,
17:36 even with last week's win against TCU
17:39 as a six and a half point dog.
17:40 And it was kind of a misleading final.
17:42 I mean, they were out gained by nearly 50 yards,
17:45 Iowa State, but they were plus four in turnovers
17:47 and one of the metrics we talked about
17:49 was the turnover situation.
17:50 But it's not just turnovers.
17:52 I mean, three of their turnovers, TCU,
17:55 came at the Iowa State four,
17:56 the Iowa State 17, and the Iowa State 22.
18:00 It's a little bit difficult to overcome
18:01 when you're getting that far down the field
18:03 and you're not punching it in
18:04 or at least kicking a field goal.
18:05 So I look at Cincy.
18:07 I like this kid, Emery Jones, for the most part.
18:08 He's not bad.
18:09 He's not doing what Desmond Ritter did
18:11 when he was in college, but you know,
18:12 a little over 62% passer.
18:15 He's got 10 touchdowns, six picks.
18:17 But this team can run,
18:18 and they bring three running backs plus Jones,
18:21 who all bring that running ability
18:23 into the mix for this team.
18:25 They all rush between 135, 405 yards so far on the season.
18:30 All four average more than five yards per pop,
18:32 two of them over five yards per carry.
18:35 Cincy's 10th in the nation,
18:37 and you guys know by now, I love two-to-one rush angles.
18:41 And Cincy's 10th in the nation
18:43 at 220 yards rushing per game.
18:45 Their defense is top 10, allowing 100 yards
18:48 rushing per game.
18:49 So we got that better than two-to-one ratio
18:51 since he's rushing a yardage gained as opposed to allowed.
18:55 They're also 11th in total yards per game.
18:58 So I think ISU is gonna have their work cut out for him here.
19:01 I mean, their offense is terrible.
19:02 They can't run.
19:03 They can't pass.
19:04 117th in total yards per game.
19:07 This line has gone from three and a half to five.
19:10 So, you know, you're not getting any great value here,
19:13 but I still think Cincy wins this by at least 10.
19:15 And I don't wanna badmouth Iowa State too much
19:18 'cause I know somebody on the show
19:19 who's now seven and O on the season
19:22 and had Iowa State last week.
19:23 So nice call.
19:24 - Yeah, I got the Iowa State flag
19:25 waving right behind me, right?
19:27 - There you go.
19:27 - Iowa and Iowa State won me money last week
19:30 and I'm seven and O on the season.
19:32 I don't bet every week.
19:33 As I've mentioned before, I look for value.
19:35 I mean, games that intrigue me.
19:37 I took Iowa in the points last week.
19:39 I took Iowa State as an underdog at home.
19:42 - Are you betting on this one?
19:45 - No, I'm probably gonna lay off this one.
19:46 I don't, it's more, I don't see the value yet for me,
19:49 you know, 'cause I don't know what Iowa State,
19:51 if I knew that Iowa State was gonna force four turnovers,
19:53 here's what I bet Iowa State last week.
19:55 It was a night game.
19:57 It was the Jack Trice celebration.
20:01 You had all the old coaches.
20:03 It was a big, big game with a lot of atmosphere.
20:06 And I just felt, Iowa State has a little,
20:08 takes that Hilton magic for the basketball court
20:11 and moves over to Jack Trice field.
20:12 I just felt like--
20:13 - It was an emotionally based--
20:16 - Yes, yes.
20:17 - Or an emotional foundation for the best.
20:20 Which actually, there's my question for Scott.
20:22 - What's that?
20:23 - How does that play into the games like that?
20:26 I mean, does that consistently work out?
20:29 Where you have that big emotional game for a school
20:32 like Iowa State had on Saturday?
20:35 - I don't think it works out enough
20:37 to base a number of plays on it.
20:39 Now, you know, you guys are close to what was going on
20:42 and Travis, obviously, close to what's going on
20:44 in Ames, Iowa.
20:45 So maybe you can get a better feel
20:47 of how much importance you should put into that.
20:49 And Travis felt like there was a good deal
20:51 of importance there.
20:52 And you see it once in a while in college.
20:53 You don't see it in the NFL,
20:54 but you see it once in a while in college football
20:57 where there's enough of that going on
20:59 to where everybody's jacked,
21:00 but the team's not too jacked up to lose, you know,
21:03 sight of what they need to do on the field.
21:05 And, you know, like I'm not a big revenge guy.
21:07 We talked about that last week,
21:09 that, you know, just take care of business
21:11 is after a few plays, the revenge motivation is over with.
21:15 I just wanted to, you know what,
21:16 something I thought about, Rob,
21:17 after we did last week's show
21:18 and I asked you that question
21:19 and you answered with what I was hoping to hear.
21:21 I thought, you know what,
21:23 maybe it doesn't matter after two or three plays
21:25 on the field, but maybe it matters during prep that week.
21:30 It's a big emotional week or a big revenge game.
21:33 Hey man, not only did they beat us last year by 21,
21:36 but they were up by, you know, 14 with 38 seconds to go.
21:39 And they did a Penn State
21:40 and they faked a knee on the last play
21:42 and they threw a touchdown pass.
21:43 I'm thinking maybe during the week,
21:45 the human nature aspect comes in
21:47 and you're so motivated that you prepare even better
21:51 than you would on a normal week.
21:52 And, you know, maybe I'm thinking too much,
21:54 but that's what I was thinking
21:55 after we did the show last week.
21:56 - It's that preparation,
21:58 that emotional input into the prep's gotta be there.
22:02 If you're only putting it into the game, it doesn't work.
22:05 But I mean, if you're emotionally vested in the prep,
22:08 then it does, then that does happen.
22:10 I guess my follow-up question
22:11 about this Iowa State team then would be,
22:14 do they have a letdown this week?
22:16 - That's a fair question.
22:18 As Scott said, they were outgained by TCU.
22:21 If it wasn't for the turnovers,
22:23 they may not have even won the game.
22:25 I don't know if I'd call it a letdown.
22:27 I was watching the CBS Sportsnet College football show
22:30 this morning about 4.30 in the morning.
22:31 I guess one of the rec new highs on those guys.
22:33 They all took Iowa State.
22:34 They were like, oh, they're big on Iowa State.
22:36 I'm like, I get it.
22:38 - For the Cincinnati game?
22:40 - Yeah, for the Cincinnati game.
22:41 And I'm like, I get it.
22:43 And Brecht had a better game last week,
22:45 but I'm still not sold on the offense, right?
22:47 It's still, you gotta put some consistent numbers together
22:50 before you become a believer.
22:51 It just can't be a one game thing.
22:53 I love Matt McCampbell as a coach.
22:55 I think he's a really good football coach.
22:56 And he's done amazing things at Iowa State.
22:59 I mean, he's won over 50% I believe of his conference games,
23:03 something no Iowa State coach I don't think has ever done
23:06 for like an eternity.
23:08 I don't even know if Earl Bruce did that
23:11 when he was at Iowa State.
23:12 So I don't know if I'd call it a letdown, Rob.
23:14 I'm just, they're just not, they're kind of like Iowa.
23:18 You know, those two teams are very similar this year.
23:20 I mean--
23:21 - But you can count on Iowa though.
23:23 - Yeah, you can count on Iowa to suck on offense.
23:25 Their defense has been somewhat suspect this year,
23:27 but gets the job done.
23:29 An interesting game that we're gonna see on Saturday
23:31 is a Pac-12 matchup, two undefeateds.
23:34 You have Oregon against Washington.
23:36 A good friend of mine, Troy Dannen,
23:37 was just named the athletic director
23:39 at Washington earlier this week.
23:42 And I mean, he left Tulane like at one day.
23:45 I've never seen that before.
23:46 He was named athletic director on like Sunday,
23:49 and he was in Seattle on Tuesday.
23:51 And he's gonna be hosting this first big game on Saturday.
23:55 This is a hell of a game.
23:56 And Scott, you've been all over Washington all year long.
23:59 - Yeah, I'm gonna say something real quick
24:01 about that Iowa State thing.
24:02 There's a guy named Jim Barnes.
24:04 He's well into his 80s.
24:05 And in fact, he lives in Iowa.
24:07 And I'm gonna reach out to him.
24:08 I haven't talked to him in 15 years.
24:10 And what he did is he had this way in college football
24:13 of taking unexpected happenings out of the game,
24:16 like, excuse me, a plus four turnover ratio for Iowa State,
24:21 and then factoring the score without the turnovers.
24:24 And I'll bet TCU wins that game by a couple of points
24:27 without those turnovers in his model.
24:29 I'll get that for next week.
24:30 It's a really cool, interesting thing that he used to do.
24:32 But as far as Oregon at Washington,
24:35 Washington lay in three, total of 67.
24:37 Yeah, I like both of these teams.
24:39 You guys know how high I am on Washington
24:41 and my futures ticket is rooting for Washington this week
24:44 with that national championship ticket in my pocket.
24:47 The Ducks have yet to face a halfway decent defense.
24:51 And Washington's defensive numbers are certainly not elite,
24:54 but they own the best defensive roster
24:56 in athletes and speed that Oregon and Bo Nix
24:59 will have faced so far this year.
25:01 I might be a bit of a contrarian here.
25:03 I'm going to talk about the total.
25:05 Oregon faced Stanford 130th against the pass,
25:07 123rd in total yards allowed.
25:10 Colorado, 130th in total yards allowed,
25:12 129th against the pass, 98th against the run.
25:16 Hawaii, horrible against the run.
25:18 Portland State doesn't even factor into this level of play.
25:22 And Texas Tech, 98th against the pass.
25:25 So that's what Bo Nix--
25:26 and he's a Dinkin' Duck passer, and that's not a shot against
25:29 him, that's just what he does.
25:30 That's what he's faced thus far.
25:32 And again, Washington is not a great defensive team,
25:35 but they're much better, much more athletic than those teams
25:38 that Nix and Oregon have faced thus far.
25:40 On the flip side, you've got Oregon,
25:42 who's fifth against the pass, sixth in total yards
25:45 allowed per game, excellent at stopping the run.
25:47 And Washington is great through the air,
25:49 not a great running team.
25:50 Michael Penix might win the Heisman, or Bo Nix could too,
25:53 but they don't run the football, does Washington.
25:56 And I think Oregon will be able to slow Washington enough
25:59 to help keep this game under 67.
26:01 And I know a lot of guys who think this number should be 71,
26:04 should be 70 and a half in that neighborhood.
26:06 I just think we're going to see two teams battle it out.
26:09 I'm not saying this is a 14 to 10 game,
26:11 but this looks like a game that could be,
26:13 let's say, 31-27 in that neighborhood.
26:17 And I think it stays under that 67.
26:19 Now, you can text me and rip me apart if the final score is
26:23 63 to 56, but I just look at what these teams have done
26:26 defensively, who they've driven all those yards against Oregon,
26:29 who they've scored against.
26:31 And I'm like, man, they haven't faced anybody yet.
26:33 So it's going to be a great game to watch.
26:35 But under 67, and I lean towards Washington.
26:38 Rob, you've played there.
26:40 I mean, that place gets loud.
26:43 It gets really-- and this might be one of the biggest games
26:45 Washington has hosted in some time.
26:48 Yeah, I mean, it's a tough place to play,
26:51 and Washington always plays really well at home.
26:53 So I don't know.
26:56 Some of these Pac-12 rivalries, I
26:59 think they're a little bit underrated.
27:01 And if you talk about an emotional aspect,
27:04 this might be, well, you got US--
27:08 when did these guys play USC, or do they both play USC
27:11 this year?
27:12 Scott, I don't know if you got the schedules by you or not.
27:14 You're usually more prepared.
27:15 Let's not say new set.
27:17 Do we have Owen researching for us?
27:19 We need Owen.
27:20 He's probably sleeping.
27:21 He's waiting for a phone call to come in, which, by the way,
27:24 you can call in at 402-543-5556.
27:27 I just-- I mean, from an emotional standpoint,
27:29 this is one of those games where I think that plays into it.
27:32 But I mean, it is always a tough place to play.
27:35 I thought we went up there--
27:37 I mean, OK, ancient history, I get it.
27:39 We went up there in '92.
27:40 You got that overhang.
27:41 It's like a hanger, right?
27:43 I mean, it's--
27:43 It is.
27:44 And I mean, I think they still do it.
27:46 I don't think they're supposed to.
27:48 They rebroadcast the crowd noise over the PA system.
27:54 It's a little bit-- it's kind of a sneaky bastard technique,
27:56 but it works.
27:57 And apparently, there's not an NCAA rule against it.
28:01 I mean, with the NCAA, music and the band
28:05 is supposed to stop, I think, when
28:07 the offense breaks the huddle.
28:10 Crowd noise.
28:11 Apparently, crowd noise.
28:12 There's free reign on it.
28:15 By the way, USC has got it the toughest
28:17 because they are at Washington-- excuse me,
28:19 they're home against Washington on November 4th.
28:21 And then they're at Oregon on November 11th.
28:25 Wow.
28:25 Tough backer for the Trojans.
28:27 Wow.
28:28 Which all of a sudden, they look--
28:30 I mean, after that Colorado game and then this past weekend,
28:34 they look kind of mildly human.
28:36 Yeah, the defense, especially.
28:38 Even Stephen Williams.
28:39 Well, we'll see what happens this weekend,
28:41 because SC goes to Notre Dame.
28:43 630 game on NBC.
28:44 Notre Dame, a 2 and 1/2 point favorite at home.
28:46 The over-under on this 60 and 1/2.
28:50 Link and Ronnie starting to take that flack that he took at Oklahoma
28:53 that he doesn't pay attention on the defensive side of the football.
28:56 We saw it in the second half against Colorado.
28:58 Listen, Caleb Williams didn't play too hot in that game against Arizona.
29:03 I mean, they were lucky to win that game by two points in overtime.
29:06 And I was disappointed in the Arizona head coach
29:08 because you've just tied the game up at the end of regulation,
29:11 or a chance to tie it up, I should say, with an extra point.
29:14 And you're taking on one of the top teams in the country.
29:19 One of them that is--
29:20 a lot of people think has a chance to win the national title
29:23 or at least reach the playoffs.
29:25 So when you pull within one in the closing seconds of the game, go for two.
29:30 Do you really think you're going to match up that well in overtime?
29:33 And the metrics say that you have a better chance of winning the game
29:37 by going for two at the end of regulation
29:39 than by trying to repeat a couple of scoring drives when it gets to overtime.
29:44 And that particular coach didn't even know
29:47 that after a certain amount of overtime periods or whatever they call it,
29:51 you have to go for two.
29:53 He found out from the referee.
29:54 It was he was sitting in his extra point unit out there.
29:57 So I thought that was a bad call.
29:58 He should have gone for two, not saying he would have won the game
30:01 and completed the two-pointer.
30:02 But the metrics say to do that.
30:04 You've got to know the metrics in this business as far as I'm concerned.
30:07 But two reasons that I played against Dame last week and played Louisville.
30:12 One, no one is going to sweep a four-week-in-a-row schedule
30:16 of Ohio State, Duke, Louisville, and USC with the two middle games
30:21 coming on the road.
30:22 That's asking a lot.
30:24 What is Michigan doing?
30:25 They're playing Iowa-Podunk State, just as George is all season long.
30:31 What are you going to pick on Iowa?
30:32 Iowa-Podunk State?
30:33 Man.
30:34 I got nothing against Iowa, but I had to throw that in there for you, man.
30:38 I got family that went to Des Moines--
30:41 what's it called?
30:42 Des Moines West or West Valley or whatever.
30:44 Or West Des Moines Valley.
30:46 Valley High, West Des Moines.
30:48 I got cousins that went there, so there you go.
30:51 My mom went.
30:53 Your mom's a Valley grad?
30:55 Well, she moved before the start of her senior year back to Burlington.
31:00 OK.
31:02 Who were the Tigers?
31:03 Yeah.
31:04 That was Valley High.
31:05 OK, that's where my cousins went.
31:06 Those Tigers.
31:07 OK.
31:08 Big rivals with Urbandale.
31:11 So anyway, you look at that four-game set, guys.
31:14 Look at that four-game set.
31:15 And who's going to beat those teams?
31:17 Ohio State, Duke, Louisville, and USC four games in a row.
31:20 I thought Notre Dame was going to be gassed.
31:22 They look gassed against the Louisville Cardinals.
31:24 I don't know that they gained that energy back.
31:26 I mean, and also something a lot of people don't talk about.
31:29 Notre Dame lost three assistant coaches from last year.
31:32 And they were three really good assistant coaches.
31:35 And we've seen this coaching unit struggle.
31:37 We've talked about it more than we probably should have,
31:40 especially what happened against Ohio State.
31:42 They're good against the pass.
31:43 They're not so good against the run.
31:45 Caleb Williams had a really bad game last week.
31:47 Still managed to get the win.
31:49 But even saying about that against Arizona,
31:51 still a 71% passer.
31:53 And how about this?
31:54 22 touchdown passes, one interception,
31:57 and 166 attempts on the season.
32:00 Marshawn Lloyd runs for more than 500 yards
32:02 so far on the season.
32:04 Almost eight yards per carry.
32:06 I mean, this guy's like Mike Rozier-like from the '80s,
32:10 I should say.
32:10 So I think USC is going to get him here.
32:12 I don't think it's going to be a blowout.
32:14 I do think they'll win by 7 to 10 points.
32:16 I think the Irish are just going to be a little bit out of gas,
32:19 especially after losing last week.
32:21 Wow.
32:22 I tell you what, Notre Dame loses at home,
32:26 Freeman's going to be under some pressure, right?
32:28 He's going to be under some pressure.
32:30 I mean, that's a hot seat.
32:32 Any coach who coaches at Notre Dame
32:33 is on the hot seat the minute they take the job.
32:38 I keep saying, looking at the school,
32:41 Deion Sanders is not that far to the west.
32:43 Bring that bundle of cash offer to him.
32:46 Wow.
32:46 Could you imagine Deion at Notre Dame?
32:48 No.
32:49 No, I can't.
32:50 No.
32:50 I would love it.
32:51 That's never going to happen.
32:53 You know that, right?
32:54 Why not?
32:55 No, it's just not.
32:57 It won't happen.
32:59 402-543-5556.
33:01 Nebraska has a bye week.
33:03 If you want to know more on Rob's thoughts on the bye,
33:06 go ahead and go to the YouTube channel.
33:08 Make sure-- you're watching on YouTube right now, I hope.
33:10 Subscribe to the channel.
33:12 But if you go down to the podcast,
33:13 Rob has a lot of good thoughts on the bye week for Nebraska.
33:17 They'll be back in action again next week.
33:20 The battle for the Big Ten West may
33:22 be taking place in Madison, Wisconsin this weekend.
33:25 It is the Iowa Hawkeyes taking on the Wisconsin Badgers.
33:29 This one blows me away.
33:30 You ready for this, folks?
33:31 Wisconsin's a 10-point favorite, and your total is 34 and 1/2.
33:37 34 and 1/2.
33:40 I'm looking at the over-under there with that total,
33:42 and I'm just like, this is the most Big Ten West over-under
33:47 ever.
33:49 Absolutely true.
33:50 I got to ask Rob a question real quick
33:53 before we jump into this, if you guys don't mind.
33:56 I remember, of course, I remember the name like Darlington
33:59 and Teneper and those guys.
34:00 Who was your coach up front on the offensive line?
34:02 Teneper and Dan Young.
34:04 That's what I thought.
34:05 And I was going to say, what would Milt Teneper or Tom
34:08 Osborne have done if you would have done a Shadur Sanders
34:10 and run over to the opposing crowd
34:11 and start flashing your watch?
34:13 And who plays with a watch on?
34:15 I'm still trying--
34:16 I don't get the watch thing.
34:18 I don't understand it.
34:19 I mean, I get the whole taunting thing.
34:23 I understand that.
34:24 I know there's specific taunts.
34:27 The watch thing I don't get.
34:28 But no, you'd be on the bench.
34:31 That's what I thought.
34:33 It's a different time.
34:33 I get it.
34:34 I'm not a Shadur Sanders hater.
34:35 I like the kid.
34:36 Hey, Dion.
34:37 I mean, I remember Dion back in that time period.
34:41 I mean, look at--
34:44 oh, there's a good comment right there.
34:47 Dion at Clemson would be pretty scary.
34:50 Well, I think that's kind of an interesting thing,
34:53 because I think sort of the concept that I've had
34:56 in my mind is that Dion makes some waves at Colorado
34:59 for a few years.
35:01 And then he's going to end up at an SEC or one of the--
35:06 I guess I call it the Southern ACC schools, and gets there.
35:11 And I think that's where he really
35:13 makes some noise, which I say ACC schools, future Big 10
35:18 and SEC schools.
35:20 It's a good point.
35:21 Here's what's going to happen.
35:22 Brian Kelly is going to be in a disaster at LSU,
35:24 and he'll take the LSU job.
35:25 How's that?
35:28 I mean, do you really think he's going to be a disaster there?
35:30 Because I don't like the guy.
35:32 I just don't like him.
35:34 I don't think he's been horrible there thus far.
35:36 No.
35:36 You've got, what, a two-year window here to look at.
35:39 I think they're underperforming this year.
35:41 They're underperforming.
35:42 They've already lost twice.
35:43 That's underperforming.
35:44 They lost at Florida State, then they got beat at Ole Miss.
35:48 That Ole Miss loss was a bad loss.
35:50 That defense is bad.
35:51 Yeah.
35:52 I mean, is LSU-- well, let me ask you this.
35:55 Is Ole Miss that bad?
35:56 I mean, they--
35:58 Defensively, they're horrible.
36:00 Offensively, they're good.
36:01 I mean, the lane train's got to go.
36:02 And what is he, 5-1, I think?
36:04 Maybe 6-1.
36:05 But LSU should have won that game.
36:06 To me, LSU's already underperforming this year.
36:08 But that's my opinion.
36:10 And I never liked him at Notre Dame.
36:12 Didn't really care for him at Cincinnati.
36:14 I don't know if anybody likes Brian Kelly.
36:18 Yeah.
36:18 It's crazy, because, man, when he was at Cincinnati,
36:21 he was like--
36:22 he was the flavor of the month, the flavor of the year,
36:24 decade, whatever you want to call it.
36:26 He's such a great D coordinator at Cincinnati.
36:29 And you know what?
36:30 But even he goes to LSU, and we see--
36:33 I see what you did there.
36:34 I saw that.
36:35 He goes, we were going to let that ride right by.
36:38 But he was-- last week, I mean, he
36:42 tells that stupid Columbia jacket joke.
36:45 I mean, it's just like, dude, just give a press conference,
36:49 get out of there.
36:50 And everybody--
36:51 His--
36:52 --look on their face, because nobody got it,
36:53 which I don't blame anybody for not getting it.
36:55 Yeah.
36:56 His persona needs to be almost kind of like the Nick Saban-esque
37:02 kind of guy.
37:02 Like, hey, I'm not going to crack jokes.
37:04 I'm not going to try and connect with you as a person.
37:08 I'm the damn coach.
37:09 I'm going to say coach-speak stuff.
37:11 I'm going to call it good.
37:13 And honestly, most people are fine with that.
37:15 Yeah.
37:16 I think the thing that probably does bug people about Brian
37:19 Kelly is the fact that that is who he is at heart.
37:23 But he tries to come off with, hey,
37:25 I'm going to try and connect with you with this--
37:29 I don't know what--
37:30 rustic Louisiana homespun--
37:33 I don't know what.
37:35 And it just doesn't fly.
37:37 Yeah, I mean, here's a guy from the Northeast.
37:39 And his first day, he goes to a basketball game at LSU
37:41 and turns on the Southern accent.
37:42 And people are like, oh, you're Hillary Clinton.
37:45 Clinton.
37:45 It just doesn't work.
37:48 Let's dive back into the game we were going to talk about.
37:51 It's the Big 10 West matchup.
37:52 Winner will be in the driver's seat for the West division.
37:55 Not that that's saying much, but it's Iowa at Wisconsin.
37:58 The Badgers a 10-point favorite, again, the over/under at 34
38:02 and 1/2.
38:03 Well, I'm going to tell you why this number--
38:05 I mean, you can find 9 and 1/2.
38:06 If you like Iowa, you take no less than 10.
38:08 There's plenty of 10s.
38:09 If you like Wisconsin, you lay 9 and 1/2,
38:11 because there's plenty of 9 and 1/2s out there.
38:14 The total, 34 and 1/2 just about everywhere.
38:16 But my power rating, I checked with another guy
38:18 who I trust more than anybody else.
38:20 I know with his power ratings earlier today,
38:23 we both make Wisconsin 8 and 1/2 points better than Iowa
38:26 on a neutral field.
38:27 So you factor in the home field advantage, and all of a sudden,
38:31 you're talking about a double-digit point spread
38:33 and potential win if the Badgers play up to their capability.
38:38 Long goes pass, he'd attack.
38:39 He came to Wisconsin, and I still think it's a great hire.
38:43 I was never that big on Mordecai when he was at SMU.
38:45 So I was like, is this really going to work?
38:47 They're changing their identity, and they've
38:49 got a quarterback who's good, but I
38:51 don't think as good as everybody hyped him up to be in Mordecai.
38:54 And we haven't seen a great deal of what
38:57 they had hoped for at all, really,
38:59 with this passing game thus far.
39:00 They need a different quarterback in there next year.
39:03 They're strong on the ground, though, man.
39:05 They can run, and they're third in rush success rate.
39:07 So they stay ahead of the chains.
39:09 We talked about that metric a week or two ago,
39:11 that they're getting those five yards on first down and so on.
39:14 The Hawkeyes defense can hang, I think, for a while.
39:16 They are legit.
39:17 There's nothing fake about this Iowa defense.
39:20 I believe they're legit, no doubt about it.
39:22 Top 10 and a lot of metrics that I use,
39:24 but that horrible Hawkeye offense.
39:28 Backup quarterback, although there's not that big of a difference
39:31 between backup and starter there, but I
39:33 think it's going to be maybe not like Penn State
39:36 in that Iowa has such few plays and has
39:38 such a short time of possession.
39:40 But I just think they just wear thin, this defense,
39:43 as the game goes on.
39:44 In theory, the books are saying with that line
39:46 and that total 24 to 10, I say if you want Wisconsin,
39:51 play the 9 and 1/2 because it's probably going to be in that 24 to 27
39:54 to 10 neighborhood.
39:56 I think they'll win by 14 to 17 points.
39:58 Wow.
39:59 Boy, all I know is this, the call-in show on the radio station
40:04 I work for is going to be busy, busy if that ends up being the case.
40:08 You got time for some questions, Scott?
40:10 Got a couple coming in the chat.
40:11 Brian says, hey, BYU is a six-point dog to TCU
40:14 who's missing their starting quarterback.
40:15 How is this possible?
40:17 Always remember that if there's a starting quarterback who's
40:20 missing, it's been baked into the number
40:22 because the books know all that already.
40:24 So the line is a little bit bigger than the power rating would actually
40:29 be at this particular site.
40:31 As far as I'm concerned, I am passing this game.
40:34 I would like to come in a little bit on TCU,
40:37 but I keep looking at that defense and how bad it is.
40:40 And then I see what they did last week, just mistakes,
40:43 and they were overvalued and overrated right
40:45 from the start this season.
40:46 So it's a good question.
40:47 But again, as always, remember when a quarterback is out
40:50 or a point guard who's strong in the NBA or college baskets is out,
40:54 it's all baked into the number before you even
40:56 get a chance to take your shot, plunking your money down on that game.
41:00 Steven asks, got a question for Scott.
41:02 Is there any statistical advantage to a certain biweek scheduling, i.e.,
41:06 week five, week eight, or week 10?
41:09 More in the NFL than anything else.
41:11 The NFL biweek certainly means a lot.
41:14 And you'll see different biweeks coming into play as far as over
41:20 the course of time, a decade.
41:21 NFL teams with maybe a biweek in week eight or earlier
41:25 has a different spread record than they do week eight or after.
41:29 For college football, it's always been odd to me to have a week nine
41:32 biweek or a week 10 biweek because you're so ingrained in your season
41:35 that, first of all, if you're bad enough to where you need a biweek
41:38 to turn things around, you're bad enough to need a biweek
41:41 to turn things around.
41:42 And if you're playing well, you just interrupted your schedule.
41:45 Maybe Michigan against Ohio State can use that extra biweek.
41:49 Same with Ohio State against Michigan, those big games
41:52 like that to help you prep.
41:53 But those conference teams late in the year
41:55 know each other so well inside and out, where those coaches have been there
41:58 for a few years, that it just bothers me when a biweek hits
42:01 that late in college football.
42:02 I don't have an exact number as to when you should have your biweek as far
42:06 as the spread is concerned.
42:07 But I'll tell you this much.
42:08 In the NFL, there are certain times where that biweek comes into play,
42:12 and it's league wide.
42:13 It's almost like human nature and goes back a decade.
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43:07 If you like what you heard from Scott Spreicher tonight--
43:09 and this is a younger looking Scott Spreicher on your screen right now.
43:13 Because I try to make him look younger.
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43:28 Guys, always a pleasure.
43:29 Appreciate the time.
43:30 And let's do it again next week.
43:33 What do you say?
43:35 Absolutely.
43:35 Go Badgers.
43:37 Now, why do you got to be like that?
43:39 Why do you have to be like that?
43:41 See, that's what he does.
43:43 He picks on me.
43:44 Scott, thanks for your time.
43:45 And we'll see you next week, buddy.
43:46 Hey, I love you, Travis.
43:47 But I got to say, go Bearcats.
43:50 Man, everybody's picking on me tonight.
43:53 Thanks for watching the Behind the Points show presented by Bet Fred Sports.
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44:04 (upbeat music)