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00:00 Happy Thursday and welcome to a different edition of Behind the Points
00:04 Spread presented by Bedford Sports. I'm Travis Justice. I know we're normally on
00:08 on Wednesday night. We had to make some adjustments because let's be honest
00:11 we're all kind of busy. You know sometimes our schedules are a little bit
00:15 flexible so we've switched to tonight at 830. We'll go back to a regular time
00:19 next week on Wednesday at 8 o'clock but thanks for finding us on a Thursday
00:24 night. We like to call this maybe the best college football show you're just
00:28 starting to hear about on the internet and it is Behind the Points Spread. Over
00:31 the next half hour, 45 minutes, maybe an hour, who knows how long we go. We'll be
00:36 covering four games, giving you a new little metrics to look at in in college
00:40 football and take a deep dive into the points spreads in the and the over-unders
00:46 for some games that we selected. If you haven't done so already I encourage you
00:50 to do this. We recorded a podcast earlier the week with former Coastal Carolina
00:55 head coach Joe Moglia. He's also the former chairman and CEO of TD Ameritrade
01:00 which is now Charles Schwab as they made a merger. There's a lot of good
01:04 information on there. I know a lot of people don't think it's football related.
01:07 It's very football centric and Joe is he's a guy that has a grind should we
01:14 say or an axe to against the NCAA. He has some really really good information
01:20 there and comes up with what he believes would solve revenue sharing amongst the
01:25 Power 5 teams, the NIL problem, and of course the transfer portal problem. That
01:31 is on the DocTalk YouTube page or you can also find it on Dr. Rob's Twitter
01:37 page now xpage at DocTalkSports. Dr. Rob is unable to join us so far. He's got
01:43 some Wi-Fi issues going on at the house but Scott Spreitzer is lined up ready to
01:48 go. Scott I know you've had a long day and I appreciate you finding time a
01:53 day later to join us again tonight. No man thanks for making the accommodations
01:57 here. I had to change our schedule a little bit due to a meeting on Wednesday
02:01 so I appreciate you guys changing things. Hopefully we'll hear from from Dr. Rob. I
02:05 watched the interview with Moglia. I watched most of it. I'm gonna finish it
02:09 later tonight but I probably saw about 80% of it and that deal that he had
02:15 where he was talking back and forth a little bit about Chip Kelly of the UCLA
02:19 Bruins and the idea that Chip has and Joe's on board too about you know how to
02:24 straighten things out, how to get this transfer portal taken care of and the NIL
02:28 and all that goes with it. Boy I just thought that was a brilliant idea on a
02:33 pretty screwed up and foobar situation that the NC2A has thrown upon us
02:41 when it comes to the college football world. So it's worth a listen. I mean if
02:45 people haven't heard it yet, I'm gonna probably go back and listen to it one
02:48 more time because I want to hear a detail a little bit more about what he
02:51 and Kelly talked about. Well I'll tell you what we don't have the video but I do
02:54 have the audio. Here's Joe Moglia on the DocTalk podcast talking about what he
02:58 would do to solve the revenue sharing, the NIL and the transfer portal in just
03:04 one big swooping move. You take the 65 schools you got everybody's 100 million
03:08 dollars. Now 100 times 65 that's six and a half billion. I just talked about
03:12 Netflix by themselves in one quarter generate over a billion in revenues.
03:16 Alright now the school keeps 75 million. The other 25 million ones are
03:22 going to the student-athletes. You pay the student at the end of the
03:26 year, not in the beginning of the year and if he transfers you don't get the
03:29 money. Every freshman gets a hundred grand. Every
03:33 sophomore gets 200 grand. Every junior gets 300 grand. Every senior gets 400
03:37 grand. Just for football though? Just for football. Okay. Well by the way I
03:41 begin with you got to break away from the NCAA. You totally break away. Power
03:45 Five doesn't need the NCAA. Power Five should be able to do what they think
03:49 they want to do that's in the best interest of Power Five football and they
03:55 got it. That's a must. That's got to happen. So you're only doing it for Power
03:59 Five football. So now if I'm going to transfer to somebody else well I'm not
04:03 getting my money and the other school you don't pay a guy that transfers in.
04:07 You pay him the next year at the end of the year. So you've just eliminated for
04:12 the most part NIL. You've eliminated all the crap going on with the transfer rule
04:16 in the portal. By the way once you take Power Five and you move it over here
04:19 you don't have a Title IX problem anymore. Interesting concept Scott and
04:25 what that started with is getting rid of the conferences and to say 65 he used 65
04:30 schools collectively with the power bargaining with the media companies to
04:35 say hey this is what we're worth. Is it perfect? No but it's a starting point
04:39 where you can really negotiate off that. Yeah I think so. I mean it's you've
04:44 definitely got to do something to change things as it is. You know what on top of
04:47 everything that we haven't really talked about when it comes to all this there's
04:50 gonna be like 80 or 90 thousand new IRS agents pretty soon apparently and they're
04:55 gonna need things to do and I really hope these student athletes who've
05:00 received big bucks are keeping records and paying their taxes because and I
05:05 hope you know some of these athletic departments of these Power Five schools
05:08 are helping out with this and steering these kids right because that's coming
05:12 down the pike if they haven't and that's a concern that's a worry and but what
05:17 they said about straightening things out he and Chip Kelly I think is a fantastic
05:21 move in the right direction and you got to get rid of the NC2A it's got to be
05:24 just done and over with. They screwed this up so badly by not paying anything
05:28 to kids for so many years not letting them work a certain amount of hours to
05:32 earn money you know it's crazy I remember you know being here at UNLV in
05:36 Las Vegas and you know hearing about guys you know fake orders for pizza 30
05:40 years ago. You know when the Domino's or Pizza Hut or whoever has to throw
05:47 away pizzas to get their food so it was like crazy to one side of things and
05:52 then it became a huge overreaction and we're gonna pay all this money to
05:56 student-athletes. My biggest question is is do you divide that evenly? Does the
06:00 second string right tackle get as much as the first string running back or
06:05 quarterback and that's got to be another thing that's worked out because you know
06:08 as we know right now that's not the case they're not breaking these things up
06:11 evenly but you're gonna have to do that if you're gonna start saying a hundred
06:14 thousand for freshman year, two hundred thousand for sophomore and so on. And I
06:18 think the better way to do it is say here's a hundred thousand here's a
06:21 hundred million dollars right the revenue share is even school you do
06:25 whatever you want with that money if you need to if you need to fund your other
06:28 sports do that if you want to distribute that money to student-athletes you do
06:32 that how you see fit here's your hundred million which you're gonna get from the
06:35 Big Ten or the SEC anyway and then you distribute that money which because
06:39 you're gonna have to keep your athletic department afloat too but again that's
06:42 just a snippet of the podcast you can find it on our YouTube channel and I
06:46 recommend it to listen it's a really really good listen from Joe Moglia. If
06:50 you want to work with Scott Spritzer we encourage you to do so because Scott's
06:53 one of the smartest guys we know. All you have to do is text the word "DocTalk"
06:57 to the number 29022 and get a free $60 trial of premium member
07:02 picks from Scott or visit DocSports.com and sign up for the free 60 on the
07:08 upper left side of the website. You know we have been over the last several weeks
07:13 taking a metric to start with in college football and tonight's gonna be no
07:18 different and this is where Scott kind of breaks down certain things he looks
07:21 at when he starts betting games and looks at how good teams are in
07:27 certain areas and Scott you have an intriguing one tonight. Yeah we're
07:31 coming up with good stuff I think every week that a lot of people haven't
07:34 really paid attention to if they're casual sports bettors and this stuff can
07:38 just make you a better sports better. It certainly enhances I think the watch
07:41 even if folks aren't betting on games it really does. So the one that I'm gonna
07:45 talk about tonight is based off of the net points per
07:50 drive metric which falls under the points per, boy if I could speak,
07:55 points per possession metric. The points per possession accounts for points earned
08:00 on a drive with the expected number of points based on the starting field
08:05 position. We've talked about starting field position before so a good example
08:10 by the person who wrote this up another better that I know who wrote this up he
08:14 talks about the fact that if an offense gets a first down let's say they get a
08:18 turnover at the other team's one yard line so it's first and goal at the one
08:22 when that offense takes over they don't get full credit if they score a
08:26 touchdown because they started at the one yard line they had to go one yard
08:30 and when we break this down in a mathematical sense the expected points
08:35 from an offense from the one yard line is 6.4 points so what you do to get the
08:42 expected points from a team that starts a drive again an extreme example but at
08:46 the opponent's one yard line you take seven which is the touchdown of the
08:50 extra point you subtract the expected points from the one yard line which is
08:54 6.4 and you get 0.6 points for that particular possession by that offense
09:01 and net points per drive deals with the difference between points scored per
09:07 drive and points allowed per opponent offensive drives and I thought I would
09:11 throw in the mix the teams that are at that are the best and then I threw in
09:15 Iowa State of Nebraska too so guess who's there you go right in front of you
09:18 there look at your man I'm telling you Owen but anyway you got that's me that
09:23 that's me he's not even here tonight that's me pulling that stuff no I don't
09:26 believe you anyway hey by the way look who showed up yeah I like it
09:34 Oregon number two guess who those Washington Huskies number three look
09:38 who's number four oh by the way look where Iowa State and our beloved
09:42 Cornhuskers sit in this particular net points per drive metric 82nd in the
09:48 country for the Cornhuskers Wow kind of said that we've got less than
09:53 Iowa I would agree with Rob right there it surprised me that I was at 50th is
10:02 that is that because they have a couple pick sixes is that because they have a
10:05 couple punt returns for touchdowns what is that how does that factor in yeah
10:10 remember half of this is the the different again it's the difference
10:14 between per drive and the amounts allowed for opponent offensive drives so
10:19 Iowa's obviously very defensive influenced when it comes to that
10:23 statistic where you know Nebraska as good as their defense was before the
10:29 drubbing by Michigan the defense was playing great football for the most part
10:33 but the offense was so bad that it was counteracting it but you know I didn't
10:37 go back to look to see where Nebraska was last week before Michigan but I
10:40 would bet they dropped a good 10 to 15 spots based off of what they did against
10:45 the Wolverines I think most people would be kind of surprised that Alabama is
10:49 outside the top 20 you know George is outside the top 10 and Oklahoma's number
10:53 four so in layman's terms what does this mean for the casual or retail better I'm
11:00 not taking Nebraska plus points over Michigan but but the bottom line is is
11:06 that yeah you're looking at teams that could do it on both sides of the line of
11:09 scrimmage and even a team like Iowa who a lot of deep metrics and we can talk
11:12 about some of their defensive deep metrics next week there are some deep
11:16 metrics where Iowa's in the top three and even number one so even though
11:20 they've got this fantastic this great outstanding defense their offense is so
11:25 bad that it draws them all the way down to number 50 in this metric so what it
11:29 does for me is like let's say if I found a team all of a sudden that I hadn't
11:33 been betting on I handicapped their game but maybe they've kind of flown under
11:35 the radar to me and I'm just gonna throw Coastal Carolina out there for an
11:38 example because you had Mowgli on last night yeah but let's say that it's a
11:42 team that's kind of flying under the radar and you look at this metric and
11:45 you say wow Coastal's like 38th let me see what they're doing well then you go
11:49 in and you find out okay they're dominating on offense they're not so hot
11:53 on defense well you look at who they're playing that week and if the you know
11:57 metrics way out to give an advantage to one side or the other that's where you
12:00 can kind of jump in and use these metrics but as you see there man that
12:04 these top 15 top 20 teams are all excellent football teams and many of
12:09 them still have a shot for a playoff position come the end of the year
12:12 Rob we lost your camera you still there oh hold it hold on I got to put you back
12:18 in there you're back there we go I'm trying to total technical difficulties
12:24 at the Zaniska house well you know that that's what happened you live in the
12:27 slums man you're not you're not gonna get good internet all right
12:30 Scott what I thought Scott was the guy out there in Henderson or whatever what
12:35 part of Vegas don't jinx me man I've had a three or four shows in a row now
12:41 without problems oh man let's dive into tonight's games we're gonna take a look
12:46 at four games tonight three big ten games of course then we have the Red
12:50 River shootout I know I'm supposed to call it the Red River rivalry but I'm an
12:53 old-school guy I'm still gonna call it the shootout I'm not gonna be politically
12:56 correct we are gonna dive into the Maryland Ohio State game the Oklahoma
13:01 Texas game the Purdue Iowa game in the Illinois Nebraska game which is going to
13:07 be a Friday night game if you would like to call and ask a question we do take
13:11 phone calls at four zero two five four three triple five six that's four zero
13:16 two five four three triple five six or if you're on Facebook or if you are also
13:21 on YouTube you can use the the the comment section to leave comments as
13:28 well so before we even dive into those we've got a couple comments and Eric
13:33 says Colorado minus ford and Arizona State real quickly your thoughts on the
13:39 Colorado who made a nice comeback against USC last week by the way yeah I
13:42 mean we talked about USC having problems in space on defense and we saw after
13:46 they built that big lead that Colorado was able to continue to strike with some
13:50 good skill position players and close that gap to 48 41 I like Colorado this
13:56 week lay of the points there was the one caveat was that you know they played
13:59 like for whatever it is intense games in a row starting with the win over TCU you
14:05 know even the Nebraska game that was an intense game going in because they were
14:08 new to winning and then you got Oregon then you got USC all of a sudden it's
14:12 like the magnifying glass is off a Colorado game and off of Dion so I was a
14:18 little bit concerned is you know are the players gonna be focused like they
14:22 should be for Arizona State and because it's Dion I think they will be and I did
14:26 make a little wager on Colorado minus the four Arizona State's on another
14:30 quarterback they're having problems on offense I don't pay attention to what
14:34 they did and a big game was a last week or a couple weeks ago in a big game in
14:38 the Pac-12 where they actually played halfway decent teams a mess right now
14:41 absolute mess that I think Colorado can go in there and get the win by about 10
14:45 points okay I need you to talk me off a ledger because I think Vegas has screwed
14:48 this thing up Maryland at Ohio State you got two unbeaten teams Maryland is a 20
14:56 point underdog tell me why Maryland is a 20-point underdog to the Ohio State
15:03 University and the money or the over under at 57 on this I mean it was 18 you
15:08 know what a couple of days ago so if they made this any lower they would have
15:11 gotten just one-sided money and hit hard at the books by the Sharps my power
15:16 rating say that Ohio State on a neutral field is 16 and a half points better
15:20 than the Maryland Terrapins remember Ohio State and some legit power ratings
15:24 are still second ranked I have them third but they're still second ranked by
15:28 a lot of guys just behind Georgia but when I look at Maryland I they're 5 and
15:32 0 they've won for me already this season I went up against Michigan State with
15:35 Maryland but you could say they haven't played anybody they caught Michigan
15:39 State at the beginning of the scandal they're so so on the ground their
15:43 defense you would think would be would have better numbers based on who they
15:47 played thus far they put a very easy schedule yet their numbers are nothing
15:51 special on defense Ohio State had last week off I think it was as important to
15:55 Ryan Day as it was to his players you know when you beat a team like Notre Dame
15:59 in the last second the first thing you can think of is I got a scream and yell
16:02 at a 90 year old man named Lou Holtz you need a week off and so I think that
16:06 helps Kyle McCord wasn't great against the Irish but he did what he had to in
16:10 crunch time and so I give him props for that so again you know power ratings by
16:16 betters including myself have Ohio State 16 and a half to 18 points better than
16:20 Maryland on a neutral field so the books have to make that adjustment and it did
16:24 go up a couple of points to 20 I like it there I mean if it was 21 and a half I'd
16:29 back off and pass I like Ohio State even at 20 so you're saying Maryland's a
16:33 pretender at this point sort of I mean you know they're good they could pull an
16:37 upset here and there against you know some of the better teams they play
16:40 they've got enough talent they've got decent coaching I just don't like their
16:44 defensive metrics when I look at who they played and they piled up kind of
16:47 mediocre metrics against a very soft slate and Michigan State is at the
16:51 Michigan State we thought they were gonna be before the season because of
16:54 what happened with Tucker so yeah I mean it's it's where it should be it should
16:58 be at least 2021 yeah you know the interesting part in Robin Scott is you
17:03 got two lawsuits again Mel Tucker came back and said he's got a letter he's got
17:07 more evidence and then you have Pat Fitzgerald who is now suing for what a
17:11 hundred and thirty million dollars against Northwestern I mean this is a
17:14 crazy year where coaches are fighting back and they're saying they want their
17:19 money that they think they're owed to him it these these two cases are gonna be
17:22 they're completely different but it's gonna be interesting to follow those two
17:26 so I just like the fact that Scott told you to get back up on that ledge I know
17:33 I know the seed that's why he does what he does and I'm a really poor better
17:39 okay although I was I was right with you on this when I'm looking at Maryland and
17:43 I mean it's I mean you look at how much more pair it parody there is in college
17:49 football right now and you take into account that yeah there are five and oh
17:52 you can say they haven't played a very good schedule but I think the week
17:56 schedules of today are better than the week schedules of 5 10 15 years ago and
18:01 so I think that's kind of why Travis both you and I looked at this one and we
18:05 thought okay that's a hell of a spread for this game um is there still a tag of
18:11 I low a playing quarterback from Maryland is he still the QB there yeah
18:15 that's the frightening part is he's gonna keep throwing no matter what the
18:18 score is yeah I mean the kids are good yeah see he's gonna keep that has a bad
18:24 beat written all over doesn't it and he's one of those games you get a bad
18:27 beat on yeah it is because he got you know and to his little brother who's you
18:32 know again he's a very good passer he's always gonna be throwing that football
18:36 no matter what the score is and you know because they can't run anyway I got to
18:41 be perfectly candid before I jumped into the games I would I always go through
18:45 games on Sundays before the lines even come out I make my first initial run
18:49 through it takes me maybe 20 minutes and you know the information is all stored
18:53 in your head from doing this so you kind of know what teams have done the last
18:56 couple of games and I checkmarked Maryland and then and then I saw the
19:01 line and it was 18 and at that point seems a little bit steep then I jump into
19:05 my updated power ratings and I'm like what he's where I make it 21 is where I
19:09 make it right in that neighborhood so am I gonna be shocked if Maryland covers
19:12 this spread no I'm not in you know as part of my premium package as I call it
19:17 for clients Ohio State's not but that's where I lean in this game as long as it
19:21 stays below 21 you know what I just heard there Rob he has discipline we
19:26 don't have discipline he's disciplined we're not I know but we're not putting
19:34 the amounts of money on games that Scott is that's that's very true up next on
19:38 the dockets the Red River shootout the Texas State Fair going on this is always
19:42 a fun one to watch at the Cotton Bowl it's an 11 o'clock game on ABC Oklahoma
19:46 and Texas right now Texas in this this lines fluctuated I think a little bit
19:50 today because I just updated again Texas minus five and the Bedford sports app
19:54 over under at sixty point five right a lot of people think Texas is is one of
20:00 those teams to beat Scott and I was actually surprised Oklahoma was was this
20:06 close but again your power ratings probably say different I've got about
20:10 20 books by the way on my screen right now I can like probably post up to about
20:13 30 but I take about the 20 that I like the most from all over the country in
20:17 Central America and it's crazy because usually you'd see okay maybe it's five
20:22 five and a half it's five and about half the books I would say well not half I'd
20:27 say it's probably split up about 40% of the books have five right now about 35%
20:32 of the books have six and then the rest have five and a half but to have a full
20:35 point difference on a short number not an 18 19 23 point favorite is a little
20:40 bit odd for a game like this so there's been some mixed betting going on around
20:44 the around the globe as far as the game is concerned and maybe one of you guys
20:48 can talk me off a ledge I think Oklahoma's got a chance I really do and
20:53 I was just talking last week about my feelings on Texas and they're strong you
20:58 know Texas is the real deal I'm not as crazy about their secondary as I am
21:02 about their front seven but again you know you look at that that metric that
21:07 we just talked about Oklahoma's fourth in the country in that metric and you
21:10 can say well they haven't played great opponents yet you're right they haven't
21:13 Texas is a huge step up but I think it oh you's gonna be able to sling the
21:18 football around enough in this one to keep this close maybe pull that outright
21:21 upset is this a big play for me no small play but it's still a play I like
21:25 Oklahoma to get the win is Brent vettables I mean this is a big game for
21:29 Brent vettables you get both these teams heading the SEC I just think he's going
21:35 to feel pressure sooner rather than later from the Oklahoma faithful oh yeah
21:40 49 nothing last year he better feel some pressure you know they lost that game by
21:44 seven touchdowns and this could be a boat race man if Oklahoma starts out
21:49 slowly this could get ugly I just think that the line when it was six you know
21:53 there were a couple of six and a half's out there it was worth grabbing those
21:56 points with oh you and I tell people you know it sounds crazy because you go back
22:01 35 years and you're gonna see the average victory margin away from the
22:04 point spread in college football is about twelve point eight points per game
22:08 it's a whole lot of games yet at the same time there are key numbers and at
22:12 six or higher Oklahoma at under six I think it's you know not quite a pass but
22:17 you got to drop your bet down a little bit and protect your bankroll but yeah I
22:21 mean I think the centers have a real good shot I think vettables has to feel
22:24 the pressure they're unbeaten they put an easy schedule but they can get the
22:28 job done here I think through the year yeah they I was state scored some points
22:31 early last week against the Sooners but then in the second half they they really
22:35 shut down my was stayed and ran away with that one and Cole likes to point
22:41 out they've got a kick schedule the rest of the way so you know he's taking a
22:46 look at Oklahoma that way by the way Eric comes back and says I just love
22:50 hearing Scott's mind at work the Maryland breakdown made a ton of sense
22:54 to him see you're connecting with the viewers Scott you you're reaching out to
22:59 them just as long as they don't come back if I lose and start throwing stuff
23:02 at me you know go troll all troll on Twitter and again if you do go all troll
23:06 make it funny make it something I you know don't tell me I suck I mean
23:10 everybody does that I want to see some humor I want to see some intelligence
23:13 with some of these insults you know crazy sports betting is I just got to
23:17 bring this up we obviously didn't plan on this right above you know my screen
23:22 here I've got I've got the Liberty game on and I didn't get involved in the
23:26 Liberty game at all today but that spread was 21 they at the end of the
23:30 third quarter they're up by five they're having no problem driving it's just a
23:33 five-point game 21 16 this is the rough part of being a better and I know a lot
23:37 of guys who lay the points tonight so they get down to about the 15 yard line
23:41 maybe the 10 yard line they attempt a field goal to go up 24 16 which means
23:46 two more touchdowns they cover the 21 field goal kicker comes in and hooks it
23:51 so badly I think it went out of the stadium on the left side of the stadium
23:55 it was so bad it's a it's a little dink and dunk field goal and I'm sitting
23:59 there and I know some people are on it who I root for when they're not against
24:02 me and obviously I'm not in this game and I'm thinking you know now they still
24:05 got to get two touchdowns in a field goal and they got a fourth quarter to do
24:08 it those are the frustrating they're moving up and down the field they just
24:12 can't score those are the frustrating parts about it about sports betting
24:15 tonight we have the like commanders and the Bears stayed away from the game
24:19 except for a prop I did DJ more over 50 and a half yards minus a buck 15 90
24:25 seconds into the game he catches a 58 yarder from fields game over I'm done
24:29 there's that part of you when you're sitting there going I know my clients
24:33 right now are going I got nothing to do for the rest for the next 59 minutes and
24:37 30 seconds he had a hundred and thirty seven yards receiving one minute into
24:43 the second quarter crazy stuff oh man 40254 three triple five six if you would
24:50 like to have a conversation and ask Scott Spritzer dr. Rob's Anuska a
24:54 question the next game our third game of the night another big ten contest it's
24:59 Purdue at Iowa Hawkeyes back home Cade McNamara officially out for the rest of
25:04 the season for Iowa quarterback this means Deacon Hill comes in it's a 230
25:10 game on Peacock I tell what Iowa fans are pissed off because they don't even
25:13 know what Peacock is it's a it's a streaming app people are upset that they
25:18 you know because for years you've been able to find it in the Big Ten Network
25:21 or one of the ESPN's or one of the Fox's now they're like what do you mean I got
25:25 a I got to pay for another service just to get to a game or to watch a game and
25:29 trust me all college football fans this is coming to you you're gonna have to
25:34 have like 20 streaming services to watch your football game but I would two and
25:39 a half point favorite again this over-under Scott crack me up it was like
25:43 41 earlier in the week it's dropped down to 38 and a half is that because of the
25:47 quarterback situation mostly in fact the side it was five and it's down to two
25:53 and a half it was a high of five and you know listen this isn't a bust on
25:56 McNamara but I'm not so sure that McNamara being out now Deacon Hill
26:00 coming in is worth two and a half points you know all of a sudden on a week
26:04 Purdue team by the way I hate the streaming services I mean if I'm
26:08 involved in a game like if I was involved in the Bears and the commanders
26:12 tonight after that receiving prop if I had a side or total and I'm involved with
26:15 one of these college football games that's on you know whatever it is CBS
26:18 Sports Network or Fox or whatever there's nothing worse I've got I've got
26:22 three laptops and a desktop and I've got to have all my laptops and desktop I want
26:27 to be on my couch not in my office watching games and you got the streaming
26:31 service you got to get out if you want to watch another game you got to go back
26:33 in so you know it's a pain in the butt they got to figure out a better way to
26:37 do this but as far as this game I think the numbers move too much based on
26:42 McNamara being out he wasn't having a good year and so you got Deacon Hill
26:45 coming into this one I know we threw some incompletions when he came in
26:49 against Miss State but you know there were some drop passes in those chunk of
26:52 incompletions also I just think Iowa wins again with defense I mean there's
26:56 some deep metrics again we can bring up next week I didn't bring him up for this
27:00 week that shows you just how strong this Hawkeye defense is for those who are
27:05 maybe casual fans and don't really follow the Iowa Hawkeyes or the Big Ten
27:09 that closely I mean there's some you know metrics again where they're number
27:13 one to number three in the nation so I do believe they're gonna be too tough for
27:16 the Purdue offense and I don't mind you know when a starting quarterback is out
27:21 and it's expected to be a low scoring game and it's a close spread to pick him
27:25 because everybody else kind of at least for one game picks up the slack for that
27:29 injured player and maybe there's a little bit more focus we see that a lot
27:32 in basketball you know you get like a guy like you know Michael Jordan who
27:37 might be out but all of a sudden the Bulls go from a an eight-point favorite
27:41 to a one-point favorite and they win by 20 that first game where a new guy
27:44 starts in a key position seems like everybody else on a halfway decent team
27:48 just picks up the slack. 402, 543, 555, 6. I see you again your
27:56 metrics say more because I you know I watch that team every single week and
27:59 it's a good Iowa defense it's not as good as it has been so I and you know
28:06 Purdue put up what 44 last week and for some reason this is a weird game Purdue
28:11 always seems to have Iowa's numbers so I it's one of those I'm just gonna I'm
28:14 just gonna stay away from stay away from the interesting on this one is
28:18 Nebraska's in action tomorrow we got a Friday game for the Huskers they're
28:22 gonna be at Illinois and it's good they can play the game at Memorial Stadium in
28:27 Champaign-Urbana because it caught on fire earlier this week if you guys heard
28:30 that thing it caught on fire fire I guess there was like a pickup truck with
28:36 a lawnmower in the back end and it burst into flames I mean that stadiums a dump
28:42 anyway but the Illini gonna be a three and a half point favorite which I was
28:47 shocked at I'm interested to see how Scott explains this one with a 43 over
28:52 under first I gotta ask you guys and you can if you if you know this and I'm
28:57 sure you know you probably do whether it's true or not but of course all the
29:00 reports for us I mean out of that area or out of Lincoln was that Matt rule had
29:04 the guys back on the field on Sunday going through like so I am told that is
29:09 true I'm sorry say that again I am told that is true I mean there are several
29:13 players interviewed who talked about it so it's I think that's pretty true I
29:17 think that's a good deal Rob I mean don't you with the way they played
29:21 against I mean Michigan's great they might win the national title yeah I mean
29:25 it's art yeah I mean there's a little bit of the wake-up call aspect to it the
29:30 other thing is you're playing on a Friday it allows you to kind of reset
29:34 that week that weekly clock like hey we're gonna start it we're gonna start
29:38 everything on Sunday get the ball rolling a little bit I think the big
29:42 difference was is normally you do a light practice the day after a game he
29:46 did he did a heavy one it's sort of a send the signal but I think he kind of
29:51 likes players to get out there and do something the day after games I think
29:55 that's the NFL model where the day after a game you'd always come in do some kind
30:01 of workout or like practice that's what we did when I played anything physically
30:07 it makes a lot of sense I think he just took it kind of maybe another additional
30:13 step where he made it sort of a harder practice but it gets him going and
30:17 allows them to sort of reset that game week clock for the Friday game by having
30:23 that practice on Sunday as well too so there's a little bit of message being
30:27 sent there's a little bit of hey I just got a functionally reset the clock for
30:32 this week for the fact that it's a Friday game you had to admire Harbaugh
30:36 the game plan right from the start it was like great you guys are averaging
30:40 1.8 yards allowed per rush okay great we're gonna go at you anyway and I mean
30:44 it was like opening drive I'm going oh my gosh this is gonna be ugly because
30:48 for once we're gonna see Nebraska for once this season I should say we're
30:52 gonna see Nebraska not be the more physical team they're gonna get their
30:56 butts kicked start to finish in the trenches and it's exactly what happened
31:00 and you know the tip pass to an interception and next thing you know
31:02 it's really ugly having said all of that guys I jumped in on the Huskers for the
31:07 first time this season I took the three and a half here with Nebraska I'm not
31:11 gonna be shocked if they went outright in this game obviously it's kind of a
31:15 low spread but I'm I'm into these rushing dog angles when we get to
31:20 conference play which usually means October which is now Nebraska still out
31:25 rushes their opponents 209 to 87 and I love going on underdogs in conference
31:32 games when they have a better than two to one rush angle in that they out gain
31:36 what they allow by more than a two to one ratio and that's Nebraska again 209
31:41 to 87 obviously they were doing much better against the run before taking on
31:45 Michigan holding teams to under two yards per carry and then you got
31:49 Illinois who's just the opposite they can't run they're 84th they can't stop
31:53 the run they're a hundred and tenth and I don't know if it's too soon to call it
31:57 an era with Bielema like the Bielema error era but he's
32:03 correct it's funny you bring this up because Rob and I were talking about it
32:07 on the podcast and that is is I mean Brett Bielema's team seems to be
32:13 regressing not progressing in his third year guys there were seven and one
32:17 straight up to start last year and they were six and two against the spread and
32:21 if you throw out the anomaly since then which was a big win over Northwestern
32:24 they're three and seven straight up the last ten they're averaging just over
32:28 seventeen points per game and they don't have a defense like I was had to make up
32:33 for bad offense so they're averaging 3.6 yards per carry passing game nine
32:38 touchdowns eight picks again a hundred and tenth against the run bad against
32:43 the pass I think Nebraska goes in there and if they got their heads screwed on
32:46 straight they win this football game outright so this is one of those games
32:50 where I'm like yeah I like him you know majority of my bets plus the points but
32:53 I also sprinkled a little bit on the money line because I think they can win
32:56 this game out right if they got their heads screwed on straight I think you
33:00 just made every Nebraska fan happy I really do the Huskers still have to make
33:05 it happen is this a case with Bielema where it's he was playing with lovey
33:10 Smith recruits and those guys all graduated and he just hasn't refilled
33:15 the cupboard they know how to play defense don't they under lovey no matter
33:19 where lovey goes and so you had his recruits who knew a thing or two about a
33:23 thing or two about stopping opposing offenses and as you mentioned they're
33:27 pretty much gone now or they are gone and so all of a sudden Bielema's got new
33:32 blood in there they weren't tutored under lovey Smith staff and I think it's
33:37 just a different animal now with the Illini so man I just you know I'd love
33:40 to see Nebraska go back into playing a physical style of football this week
33:44 they're never gonna beat Michigan with this group of players it's just not
33:48 gonna happen that's a blowout waiting to happen Michigan's just too good but
33:52 Illinois they can take and again I love the rush angle not only Nebraska's but
33:56 how bad Illinois is on both sides of the line of scrimmage when it comes to the
33:59 ground game so what I hear you saying though is if Nebraska loses I think we
34:04 all three would probably be an agreement on this it this would be a bad loss
34:07 wouldn't it if Nebraska were to lose to Illinois that'd be a bad loss even
34:12 though they're the underdog I think we all agree that you get beat by Illinois
34:15 that's just that's not good and they're only an underdog because they're on the
34:19 road you know so they it would be you go into the what they got a bye week next
34:24 week what do you go in there two and three if you lose this game and you've
34:26 lost two games Minnesota potentially Illinois that you should have won so
34:31 you're two and three when you could have been four and one and I think that
34:34 matters quite a bit go ahead of this bye week I mean it's gonna be really tough
34:38 for this team to make a bowl game if they lose this contest and again this is
34:42 a game they got to win if you're gonna make those leaps and bounds and you know
34:45 we'll call them baby steps along the way first year under the new head coach you
34:49 got to win games that you can win this is one of those games if you want to if
34:53 you like what you hear from Scott Spreitzer you can do this text the word
34:58 doc talk to the number two nine zero two two and get a free that's right free
35:02 $60 trial of premium member picks from Scott or visit Doc sports comm and sign
35:08 up for the free 60 on the upper left hand of the website you know we're
35:14 actually running a show on time today can you believe that we're running a
35:16 show on time it's because Rob was late and he didn't talk her ear off no Rob I
35:22 did it we played a clip from Joe Mowgli and I told everybody at the beginning of
35:27 the show if you haven't watched the Mowgli a podcast yet do so if for some
35:31 reason that's got less views and listens in our previous podcast and maybe it's
35:36 because it's not game related specifically related to Nebraska but
35:40 there's some good good stuff on that podcast it he's always such a good
35:45 listen it's like Scott Spreitzer you're always gonna get good info like I mean I
35:49 still am shocked that we don't get more people following or more views on this
35:56 one which I mean we get some very good viewership but I'm still convinced this
36:01 is the best show in college football well this one absolutely it is we know I
36:05 said tonight it's the it's the best show people are now just starting to hear of
36:10 right a couple weeks ago it was like nobody's heard of the show now it's the
36:13 best show people are starting to hear about so and by the way I Rob I was
36:17 telling Travis before before we went on air that I watched about 80% of that
36:21 Mowgli a video last night late last night I'm gonna watch the rest tonight
36:25 I'm blown away man I I'm into poker I love listening to talk about hold'em I
36:30 love getting Travis all nervous with a $500 cash buy-in you know that was the
36:37 funny thing about Joe I'm watching him go well Travis it's okay it's a $500
36:41 cash buy-in which means you can pay another $500 if you lose the first
36:44 nickel Travis is like this ain't helping me man way way way too rich for my blood
36:52 but guys as always a fun show we appreciate it spread the word we'll be
36:57 back next Wednesday even with Nebraska not playing next week we're still gonna
37:01 do a behind-the-points spread we'll pick a different game and talk some college
37:06 football and Scott always comes with a nice little metric to break it down and
37:09 gives us some more insight and to his his brain which is a mathematical genius
37:14 as we like to say for Rob's aniska for Scott Spreitzer enjoy the rest of the
37:21 evening and thanks for watching behind the point spread presented by betfred
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