China Now 16-09: Huawei’s latest launch and China’s technological reach
The China Now special program informs about this country's news, culture and technological advances. In this episode, we take a closer look at the Huawei’s latest launch, China’s technological reach, new scientific development to replicate the sun’s core as an energy source and the new geopolitical landscape. teleSUR
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello, The Lizard English presents a new episode of China Now, a Web-media production that
00:13 showcases the cultured technology abilities of the ancient giant.
00:17 The first segment, China Currents, goes over Huawei's latest launch, showing China's technological
00:23 reach and how it comes to play facing U.S. economic hostilities and also addresses China's
00:30 economic strategies, specifically in the real estate sectors as well as COVID prevention
00:36 strategies, given the resurgence of the pandemic.
00:40 Let's see.
00:43 China Currents is a weekly news talk show from China to the world.
00:47 We cover viral news about China every week and also give you the newest updates on China's
00:52 cutting edge technologies.
00:54 Let's get started.
00:59 Hi, welcome to China Currents.
01:06 I'm Chris.
01:07 Last week, the top trending news on Chinese social media was undoubtedly Huawei's new
01:12 cell phone, Mate 60 Pro.
01:15 As we reported earlier, Huawei released the phone on August 29th, the day which U.S. Secretary
01:20 of Commerce Gina Raimondo was about to wrap up her four-day visit to China.
01:24 Huawei's new 5G release was thus seen as a symbolic victory for Huawei in defying D.C.
01:31 sanctions, demonstrating China's ability to make technological breakthroughs despite the
01:35 challenges it faces.
01:37 The Mate 60 Pro smartphone has ignited curiosity among tech enthusiasts and industry observers,
01:43 particularly regarding the origin of the chips used in the device.
01:48 Due to its sudden release and the following sold out, many did not have the chance to
01:51 obtain the cell phone.
01:53 But by last week, experts have finally received their phones that shed light on the somehow
01:57 mysterious cell phone.
02:00 While Huawei has remained tight-lipped about the specifics of chip technology used in the
02:04 Mate 60 Pro, a tear-down analysis conducted by TechInsight, a Canadian semiconductor intelligence
02:10 firm, suggests that the chip in question is the Kirin 9000s, manufactured by China's leading
02:16 foundry, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., SMIC.
02:21 The Mate 60 Pro's launch has led to an outpouring of national pride, with Chinese netizens hailing
02:27 the device as a testament to China's ability to make significant technological strides
02:32 in the face of stringent U.S. sanctions.
02:35 In the past week, consumers flocked to Huawei stores to buy the new model, priced at 6,999
02:41 yuan, that's 958 U.S. dollars, leading to a surge in stock prices of companies related
02:47 to the sector, including a 5% increase for SMIC.
02:52 Following Huawei's breakthrough in the U.S. sanctions, the White House was forced to change
02:56 its tactics.
02:57 On September 3rd, Gina Raimondo, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, who got ambushed by
03:02 Huawei during her visit to China, made a statement about U.S. policy regarding Chinese chips.
03:09 Unlike previous statements in which stressed both chips at military and civilian level,
03:14 Raimondo merely addressed that the U.S. will not sell the most sophisticated chips to the
03:18 Chinese military.
03:19 She did not deny the possibility of selling chips to China in the future as well.
03:25 After Huawei's Mate 60 Pro smartphone surprised the market, China's chip breakthrough on the
03:29 civilian level had been proved, leaving the military-level chips the last resort for the
03:34 U.S. to contain China technically.
03:37 Many Chinese see the U.S. ambiguity as an attempt to compromise.
03:41 However, Chinese netizens believe that the White House would not go quietly.
03:46 The public is concerned that a compromise can merely be a tactic to erode the Chinese
03:51 self-developed chip industry, luring it to be dependent on the U.S. once again.
03:56 Some must consider the U.S. as taking the last chance to gain profit from the chip trades
04:01 before China research more of its own.
04:03 But either way, Raimondo's tough statements on military chip restrictions did not trigger
04:08 much reaction.
04:09 It's just never a secret.
04:11 The high-tech sector is now the only place in which the U.S. loses its grip.
04:15 On September 6, the U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai announced the extension of tariff
04:21 exclusions on 352 Chinese imports and 77 COVID-19-related categories until December 31, including face
04:29 masks, examination gloves, and hand sanitizing wipes.
04:34 The exemptions were previously set to expire on September 30.
04:38 Under the Trump administration, tariffs were imposed on Chinese imports in the name of
04:42 "national security" using Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act.
04:48 Over 2,200 Chinese imports were granted exemptions during this time, including 549 that received
04:54 a one-year extension.
04:56 However, all exemptions expired at the end of 2020.
05:00 In October 2021, the USTR proposed reinstating the 549 expired exemptions and opened a period
05:07 of public comment.
05:08 Nearly half a year later, the USTR confirmed 352 of these exemptions in a March 2022 statement.
05:16 The exemptions have since been repeatedly extended, now through the end of this year,
05:20 and critics argue that tariffs have increased costs for American businesses and consumers
05:25 without achieving stated policy goals.
05:27 The renewal of 77 COVID-19-related medical products is likely related to the resurgence
05:32 of the pandemic in the United States.
05:35 According to the CDC, the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients has been in a steady increase
05:41 since late June, with over 17,400 cases reported on August 26.
05:47 Many individuals who have received double vaccination booster, for instance, First Lady
05:52 Joe Biden, have been found positive for COVID-19 for the second time.
05:56 With China's removal of COVID-19 testing requirement for foreign travelers on August
06:01 30, this announcement will undoubtedly provide significant market opportunities for Chinese
06:06 medical equipment manufacturers to find sales outlets.
06:10 Next up, another piece about international trade.
06:13 On September 4, Japan submitted a complaint to the World Trade Organization regarding
06:18 China's ban on Japanese seafood, stating the action is "totally unacceptable" and
06:24 that it strongly urges China to immediately repeal its measures.
06:29 The complaint has been faced with strong criticism in China, calling it "ridiculous" and "unjustified."
06:35 Chinese netizens condemned Japan for its attempt to shift blame onto China despite its own
06:40 action of disposing nuclear-contaminated water into the Pacific Ocean.
06:45 Beijing maintains that its ban on Japanese seafood is a necessary measure to ensure the
06:50 safety of Chinese consumers and have acted in accordance with WTO regulations by implementing
06:56 emergency measures to protect consumers from potential harm.
07:00 As the trade dispute between China and Japan escalates, both countries are cautious against
07:05 straining the origins of fragile relations.
07:08 Looking ahead, Japan is seeking talks with China to resolve the trade dispute, with top
07:12 officials of both countries set to cross paths at the ASEAN summit.
07:17 Next up, let's turn to Chinese economy.
07:19 Starting last week, major Chinese cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen
07:24 began to stimulate the housing market by widening the definition of first-time homebuyers to
07:30 give more people access to preferential mortgages.
07:33 Under the new policy, when a household applies for a loan to purchase residential property
07:39 and none of its members own a home in the local area, regardless of whether they have
07:43 previously used loans to buy property, financial institutions will consider it as the first
07:49 home purchase and apply corresponding housing credit policies.
07:53 As the policy takes effect, first-time homebuyers and those seeking to upgrade their housing
07:58 have quickly made decisions, resulting in a noticeable impact.
08:02 According to some real estate sales personnel in Beijing and Shanghai, after policy was
08:06 implemented, the daily sales volume of new housing projects almost exceeded that of the
08:11 previous month.
08:13 Experts believe that this policy will stimulate market demand, substantially reduce the cost
08:17 of home buying, and provide a positive direction for the market, contributing to the stable
08:22 and healthy development of the real estate sector in China.
08:25 It is expected that more cities will introduce similar policies in the near future, further
08:31 enhancing the vitality of the real estate market.
08:34 Real estate is not the only sector that the Chinese government cares about.
08:38 On September 4th, China's National Development and Reform Commission established a new institution
08:44 called Bureau for Private Economy Development.
08:47 The new bureau is responsible for enhancing communication between private enterprises
08:52 and the government.
08:53 It is also in charge of coordinating the preferential policies toward the private sector.
08:59 Unlike other government institutions in China, based on the latest information, the new bureau
09:04 does not have supervision responsibilities over the enterprises.
09:08 The bureau was set up amid China's economic recovery from COVID.
09:12 With the youth unemployment rate hitting record high, China is finding this way to create
09:17 more jobs in the private sector.
09:20 Previously in July, Chinese State Council issued a 31-point guideline on boosting private
09:25 economy calling to improve the business environment.
09:29 Opinions on Chinese internet are sharply divided.
09:32 Despite the promise from the government, many believe that the state is deepening its intervention
09:37 in private enterprises.
09:38 "We don't need the officials to tell us what to do," netizens wrote on social media.
09:43 The others are convinced that the bureau will help to turn the guidelines into policies
09:47 preferential to the enterprises.
09:50 With the bureau's existence, business will be less disrupted by arbitrary bureaucracy.
09:56 Next up, a recent survey report released by Mycos Institute revealed that the employment
10:01 focus of Chinese college graduates have further shifted to prefecture-level cities and below.
10:08 The education sector is the main absorber of graduates in these regions.
10:13 According to the income data from the survey, the monthly income of college graduates who
10:17 started teaching in prefecture-level cities and below in the 2022 cohort was 4,468 yuan.
10:23 This is an increase of 378 yuan compared to the 2018 cohort.
10:30 It is lower than that of the national average for undergraduates in 2022.
10:34 However, the job satisfaction of these groups not only exceeds the national average level,
10:39 but is also significantly increased.
10:42 The data shows that the job satisfaction of college graduates teaching in prefecture-level
10:47 cities and below in the 2022 cohort is 84%, a substantial increase of 9 percentage points
10:53 compared to the 2018 cohort.
10:56 The shift in employment focus and the corresponding satisfaction level indicates that more graduates
11:01 are finding rewarding work in the smaller cities and in the education sector.
11:05 While their income may be slightly lower than the national average, the job satisfaction
11:10 level suggests that the value factors beyond monetary compensation.
11:16 Next up, let's turn to Chinese technology.
11:18 On September 7, the China-Indonesia Joint High-Speed Railway connecting Jakarta and
11:23 Bandung officially opened.
11:25 Increasing travel time between the two cities from 3.5 hours to just 40 minutes.
11:31 The 142 km long Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway is Indonesia and Southeast Asia's
11:37 first high-speed rail system, fully adopting Chinese technology and standards.
11:42 With a maximum operating speed of 350 km per hour, the new railway is a cooperation project
11:48 between China and Indonesia under Indonesia's Global Maritime Fulcrum and China's Belt
11:54 and Road Initiative.
11:55 It will begin commercial operations in early October.
11:59 Next up, on September 4, NIO co-founder Qin Lihong revealed that the electric vehicle
12:04 maker plans to launch its first smartphone product, the NIO Phone, on September 21.
12:11 The NIO Phone is already in production and the company plans to release an entirely new
12:15 model annually, similar to Apple.
12:18 According to reports, the NIO Phone has received network access licensing from the Ministry
12:23 of Industry and Information Technology and will support UWB, Ultra Wideband Technology.
12:30 This suggests that the NIO Phone may serve as a digital car key for NIO vehicles and
12:35 help build a portfolio of terminal devices centered around the car.
12:39 At the same time that EV makers like NIO are crossing over to the smartphone industry,
12:44 major smartphone brands also making a reverse move into automotives.
12:48 It was revealed that Xiaomi's automotive program is currently in trial production, beginning
12:53 just one month ago.
12:55 Xiaomi is currently producing around 50 test vehicles per week.
12:59 Sources say Xiaomi received approval from the MIIT within the last two months and could
13:04 receive full approval by the end of this year.
13:07 Once approved, Xiaomi will be able to immediately ramp up the mass production of Xiaomi-branded
13:12 cars.
13:13 Lastly, let's take a look at the Chinese cinema.
13:16 According to data from Maoyan, Christopher Nolan's new film Oppenheimer has made 258
13:22 million yuan in China after eight days, surpassing the recent popular Hollywood blockbuster Barbie.
13:29 From September 1st to 6th, Oppenheimer was the top-grossing film in China each day.
13:35 As biopic about J. Robert Oppenheimer, the legendary American physicist known as the
13:39 father of the atomic bomb, the film has also sparked passion among Chinese audiences in
13:43 revisiting its period of World War II history and nuclear warfare.
13:47 That's all for today.
13:49 Thank you for watching this episode of China Currents.
13:51 If you have any thoughts and comments about our show, please reach us at the email address
13:55 below.
13:56 I'm Chris, looking forward to hearing from you and see you next time.
13:59 We'll go for a short break now, but we'll be right back.
14:09 Stay with us.
14:10 Welcome back to China Now.
14:23 In a second moment, the segment Currents abounds on Huawei's 5G new Mate 60 Pro cell phones
14:30 as well as new scientific developments to replicate the sun's core as an energy source.
14:37 The new segment, Things Forward, explores the new political landscape and the demise
14:43 of the dollar as a weaponized currency.
14:45 Enjoy.
14:46 Hi, I'm Lisa and this is Threshold in China.
14:54 Today we are going to share some exciting tech innovations and announcements that happened
14:58 in China recently.
15:01 Huawei recently released a new smartphone and people are curious about the source of
15:10 the chip.
15:11 While Huawei did not specify the chip technology used in the phone, Tech Insight, a Canadian
15:16 semiconductor firm, took the phone apart and suggested that the chip is in fact the Ti
15:22 Lin 9000s.
15:24 It is manufactured using advanced 7nm process technology.
15:29 This new domestically made chip is hailed as a victory by Chinese as it defies US sanctions.
15:36 Up until now, the best chip manufacturers in China had only publicly reported the mass
15:41 production of 28nm chips.
15:44 So how did Huawei suddenly jump to 7nm?
15:48 In 2022, Tech Insight also disassembled a crypto mining ASIC from MyLover, a fabulous
15:55 crypto mining semiconductor company.
15:58 They found that the MyLover Bitcoin miner system on chip was manufactured by SMIC and
16:05 the parameter is very close to TSMC and Samsung's first generation 7nm process.
16:12 This suggests three things.
16:14 First, Chinese chip enterprises have acquired 7nm production capabilities.
16:19 Second, if it's being used in mining machines, it means these chips have industrial patch
16:25 delivery capabilities and not just a few experimental products from a laboratory.
16:31 And third, the manufacturing time of these chips can be traced back to July 2021, indicating
16:37 that the breakthrough to 7nm in China happened as early as 2021.
16:44 But from a global perspective, the 7nm technology still lags behind the cutting edge process
16:50 currently used for smartphone chips.
16:52 For example, the iPhone 15 uses 3nm process.
16:57 According to Professor Li Tingjie, the gap is 2 to 2.5 nodes, which means that Huawei's
17:03 5G chips are 3 to 5 years behind the forefront.
17:07 However, given the rapid progress of China's semiconductor industry, the gap could be closed
17:12 sooner.
17:14 More importantly, reports suggest MIX60 Pro cells have exceeded 800,000 units, with supply
17:20 chain orders reaching 15 to 17 million.
17:24 This high volume speaks to a stable supply of the 5G chips.
17:28 For these production numbers to be achieved, Huawei and other manufacturers throughout
17:33 its supply chain must have achieved major improvement in the advanced process and effectively
17:39 managing the yield rates of chip wafers.
17:42 Or else the cost of making a smartphone would be too high.
17:45 Another interesting feature of the MIX60 Pro is that it realizes direct satellite calls.
17:51 By connecting to China's high-orbit Tiantong-1 communication satellite, the phone unlocks
17:56 satellite calling beyond just sending short messages, something that was previously only
18:01 possible with large antennas and high transmission power.
18:05 Huawei making a comeback has definitely raised questions on the effectiveness of sanctions,
18:11 and experts suggest that the US may impose even greater restrictions than would exist
18:15 today to further curtail China's access to critical manufacturing technologies.
18:21 Recently, US Commerce Secretary Raimondo announced the US will not be selling advanced chips
18:27 to China with an intent to restrict the development of China's AI sector and limit end-to-end
18:33 companies like Huawei from controlling communication endpoints.
18:38 But for now, it seems that US chipmakers were right when they warned that extensive sanctions
18:43 would not stop China, but in fact motivated to redouble its effort to build alternatives
18:49 to US technologies, a phenomenon that is also happening in other sectors as the tech war
18:55 intensifies.
18:56 China and the United States have both announced major breakthroughs in stimulating nuclear
19:06 fusion reactions of the sun.
19:09 Recently, China's new generation artificial sun, Huanliu-3, achieved a high confinement
19:14 mode operation with a plasma current of a staggering 1 million amperes, the highest
19:20 current ever for nuclear fusion.
19:23 The Huanliu-3 devised a tokamak using magnetic field to trap and squeeze a plasma of fusion
19:29 fuel, creating temperatures about 7 times hotter than the core of the sun.
19:34 And these scorching temperatures, the repulsive force between nuclei, are overcome, leading
19:40 to nuclear fusion.
19:42 This breakthrough makes the entire system more controllable and cost-effective, thus
19:47 promoting the commercialization of nuclear fusion.
19:50 In late 2022, the United States National Ignition Facility, NIF, renowned for its massive laser
19:58 system, also accomplished the groundbreaking first ever ignition in history.
20:03 This achievement signified the fusion reactions becoming a self-sustained engine, producing
20:10 enough energy to maintain themselves and compensate for any energy loss, comparable to harness
20:16 a star's energy.
20:18 NIF used high-intensity lasers to superheat and squeeze a tiny fusion fuel "pillet",
20:24 inducing a short-lived but powerful burst of fusion reactions.
20:29 Although using dramatically different approaches, most of these breakthroughs bring us closer
20:33 to a future of unlimited energy possibilities.
20:37 The two main techniques to achieve this are magnetic confinement and inertial confinement.
20:43 Both methods use hydrogen isotope as fuel.
20:47 When these isotopes fuse together, they form helium, and release a tremendous amount of
20:51 energy in the form of heat and neutrons.
20:55 Magnetic confinement aims for a steady-state fusion reaction, which means using strong
21:00 magnetic field to contain hot plasma so the fusion reaction can occur continuously, providing
21:05 a stable and consistent power output.
21:08 This allows steady power production as a conventional power plant.
21:12 However, the complexity and large scale of the device required to maintain the plasma
21:18 present cost and operational challenges.
21:21 Issues such as plasma instabilities, turbulence, and heat losses become more pronounced as
21:27 the current increases, approaching the threshold of ignition.
21:31 What is significant with Huanliu-3 is that it allows plasma current of 1 milliampere
21:36 while maintaining stability.
21:39 This high current brings scientists closer to achieve ignition and produce a net output
21:44 of energy.
21:45 Projects like Huanliu-3, as well as the International ITER project in France, in which China also
21:51 participates, are making substantial progress in the field, aiming to make fusion a large
21:56 scale energy source.
21:59 Inertial confinement on the other hand aims for a pulse fusion reaction.
22:03 It rapidly compresses a small pellet of fusion fuel using focused laser beam or particle
22:09 beams.
22:10 This causes a burst of fusion reaction like a tiny explosion for a very brief moment.
22:16 This produces fusion in short pulses, offering flexibility in power generation and not in
22:22 continuous power.
22:23 However, it requires precision and synchronized laser pulses to compress the fuel pellet.
22:29 When it comes to nuclear fusion power generation, it often seems like we are always 50 years
22:35 away.
22:36 However, recent research suggests that we probably don't have to wait that long.
22:40 Developing a fusion reactor with clean, abundant energy, with minimal environmental impact,
22:45 and no long-term radioactive waste is within our reach.
22:50 Scientists anticipate that commercialization of nuclear fusion could be achieved by the
22:54 mid 21st century, around 2050.
22:57 Today, there are over 8 billion people on the planet.
23:07 Our irresponsible actions caused the extinction of many animals.
23:11 But did you know that we were once on the brink of extinction?
23:15 And it is no less dramatic than the Cretaceous extinction event.
23:19 In a study published in late August, Chinese scientists have shed light on the darkest
23:23 chapter of human ancestral history.
23:26 Utilizing a newly developed genomic model, they have revealed that during a prolonged
23:31 period spanning over 100,000 years, the number of fertile individuals on Earth fell to a
23:38 mere 1,280, bringing our ancestors dangerously close to extinction.
23:45 Our understanding of population history has been constrained to the most recent 300,000
23:50 to 100,000 years due to the constraints of ancient DNA sequence technology and the Earth's
23:56 climate, which hinders DNA preservation in fossils older than 300,000 years.
24:02 To overcome that, scientists have applied innovative population genetic theories to
24:07 decode the historical imprints left by our ancestors in our genomes.
24:12 The co-ancestry race, a measure of genetic relatedness or shared ancestry between individuals
24:18 or populations in each generation, is influenced by the effective population size of prehistorical
24:25 times.
24:26 By examining these genetic imprints, researchers can infer the population size of our ancestors.
24:32 But the signal preserved in our genome becomes weaker the further back in time they go.
24:37 To combat this, researchers from the Shanghai Institute of Nutrition and Health have premiered
24:42 a new theoretical approach, FITCOL.
24:46 It gave us a new way to estimate the likelihood of observing a specific pattern of gene mutations
24:52 in a group of individuals, which tells us about their shared history.
24:57 So essentially, FITCOL can take a census of ancient human population.
25:02 The study involves the analysis of genomic sequence from 3,154 modern individuals.
25:09 It reveals a long and brutal bottleneck period spanning from 930,000 to 813,000 years ago.
25:18 During this time, 98.7% of human ancestors vanished, leaving an average adult population
25:25 size of around 1,280 for the subsequent 117,000 years.
25:32 Human beings were on the verge of extinction, and the real situation may have included some
25:37 natural fluctuations, making the risk of ancestral human extinctions even higher than the literal
25:44 interpretation suggests.
25:46 As a consequence of this small population, human genetic diversity has decreased by 65.85%.
25:54 So what exactly happened?
25:56 It is highly likely that they faced ice ages and severe droughts, the violent climate change
26:02 of the early-middle-Pleistocene transition.
26:06 Among all of these, our ancestors preserved, and according to the sequence results of African
26:11 populations, after the bottleneck period, the ancient human population rapidly rebounded,
26:18 increasing 20-fold.
26:20 This could be attributed to both improved climate and learning how to make fires.
26:25 The implications of this study go far beyond the realm of science and reach into the history
26:30 of our common humanity.
26:32 And that is all for today's Threshold.
26:34 As always, please let us know if you like this new section on science and technology
26:38 in China, and we will do more in the future.
26:41 So I want to, by way of an introduction, impress upon you how the United States is facing mounting
26:51 problems both at home and abroad.
26:55 And these are instructable problems.
26:56 They are not problems that the United States seems to be easily able to solve.
26:57 They seem to be dumbing, they seem to be very difficult to solve.
26:58 They seem to be sending the United States in a spiral of decline, of economic chaos,
27:05 social division, political loss, etc.
27:08 And this is going to, I think, worsen very radically in the coming year, given the U.S.
27:18 elections that are coming up, before there is any hope of it getting better.
27:24 And I want to say a couple of things about how I see the new Cold War, de-dolarization,
27:31 and the question of global governance being lived.
27:34 And the phenomena that so many of us are now calling de-dolarization.
27:41 In talking about de-dolarization, I have argued in my work that you have to understand de-dolarization
27:48 as resting on two pillars.
27:51 One of those pillars is the rise of external challenges, the increasing centrality of China
27:58 as a source of world finance, the ability of countries to start trading in foreign currencies,
28:04 currency swaps, alternatives to SWIFT, BLABLA, and so on.
28:08 These are the most talked about.
28:10 So the second pillar, in addition to the external challenges, the second pillar on which de-dolarization
28:16 rests are the internal contradictions of the dollar system.
28:20 And they are very fundamental.
28:22 In fact, we cannot understand de-dolarization without understanding these internal contradictions
28:28 because otherwise you will understand why people may prefer other alternatives, but
28:34 you will not understand the collapse of the dollar system when it comes.
28:38 And that is not that long in the future.
28:41 And this is rarely mentioned, it is rarely understood.
28:44 Indeed, we have an entire industry, an academic industry of people, largely based in the United States,
28:51 whose sole purpose is to deny the internal contradictions of the dollar system and make
28:58 it look as though it is the most natural thing in the world for the dollar to dominate the
29:03 world economy and how this dominance is going to continue forever and ever.
29:07 So, obviously, I think most of us are aware that things are not going well for the U.S.
29:13 both internationally and domestically, but it is useful to just enumerate what are some
29:18 of the main issues.
29:19 So obviously, the U.S.'s economic weight in the world economy is declining.
29:24 As a consequence, of course, it is waging a new Cold War.
29:28 It is essentially engaging in fairly comprehensive and hybrid aggression on many fronts, of which
29:36 of course China and lately Russia have been particular targets.
29:41 Nevertheless, and partly because of this, these sanctions, because of this declining
29:46 economic weight, sanctions are boomeranging.
29:50 It is losing many allies and even those who are left face a complex conundrum because
29:57 what the United States must demand from these remaining allies, which is a level of, a master
30:04 piece of it, an ability to accept punishment, basically ensure that this scenario is not
30:11 going to be sustained.
30:12 How long can you keep your allies if you are imposing such costs on your allies?
30:18 So, the surface appearance of unity and allegiance is superficial and there are deep cracks that
30:25 are already existing in these alliances.
30:28 And finally, things are so bad for the United States that it is actually destroying the
30:33 very system of open world governance.
30:37 That is to say, a world governance based on the principle of free market, free trade,
30:41 whose principle purpose is to open up subordinated economies so that they may serve the interests
30:49 of US corporations and so on.
30:52 So, this very system of world governance, which has been trying to create and maintain
30:58 since the end of the Second World War, it is now forced to attack the principles of
31:04 this very system.
31:06 This is what is happening internationally.
31:08 Domestically, its economy is very productive, in line.
31:12 Inequality in the United States is reaching unprecedented levels and the cause of both
31:18 of these is the heightened level of financialization that the US has engaged in since the 1970s
31:27 and which is the accompaniment of the dollar's world loan.
31:32 Today, the dollar's world loan would not exist were it not for this casino-like and
31:39 loan-shop, like predatory lending, speculative activity, etc.
31:46 That occurs today in the US financial system.
31:50 Thirdly, the US policies are creating social conflict and indeed this social conflict is
31:58 sometimes so bad that over the last couple of years, I'm sure many of you know, there
32:03 have been books and articles written on the possibility of a civil war in the United States.
32:09 This is not light thinking.
32:11 I think this is very real.
32:14 It is necessary for the United States today to fight against inflation and the return
32:19 of inflation is actually one of the principal symptoms of the US's imperial decline.
32:26 The return of inflation safely happened in the 1970s when the imperial system was popular
32:33 and it's happening again today.
32:35 The United States must necessarily fight against inflation but in doing so, it will endanger
32:44 the very financial system that it has created but essentially, the US Federal Reserve is
32:49 caught between a rock and a hard place.
32:51 If it doesn't attack inflation, the dollar will be undermined because it is losing its
32:55 value.
32:56 If it attacks inflation, it is going to undermine the financial system which is also necessary
33:00 to retain the dollar's world loan.
33:02 So, it is damned if it does and it's damned if it doesn't.
33:05 So, this is the situation.
33:07 Further, the US military record is one of pragmat and defeat after defeat.
33:13 So, all around, I would say the contradictions are mounting.
33:17 Now, what is causing all this?
33:19 To put this in perspective, let's look at the end of the Cold War.
33:23 At the end of the Cold War, everybody thought that now the world would be united, peacefully
33:28 united under the unipolar leadership or hegemony of the United States.
33:34 The United States would enjoy unbridled power if it was a lonely relationship with power
33:39 of the right.
33:41 What has happened is that instead of unipolarity, we have multipolarity.
33:46 And multipolarity has occurred because of the decline of the United States and the rise
33:52 of the rest, both of which are in turn the result of the adoption of neoliberalism by
33:57 the United States and the rejection of neoliberalism in whole or in part, pre-eminently by China
34:04 and to a lesser extent by some other countries.
34:07 So, US is declining, the rest are rising, the United States is reacting, so no unipolarity,
34:13 multipolarity instead, and the United States is reacting to this reality with unrestrained
34:19 aggression, military and hybrid.
34:22 So, you see that there is no peace in the world either.
34:26 But we could also look further back into history to put this in perspective.
34:30 What we see is that first of all, is the US failure to successfully emulate UK style dominance
34:38 over the world system.
34:40 US saw the UK weakening in the early 20th century and the serving system weakening,
34:45 so it thought that it could easily step into the shoes of the United States, which is why
34:49 you have all these theories of hegemony.
34:51 They come, the US did not succeed in achieving this desire.
34:56 In part, this was because the US had the misfortune of taking up the leadership of the capitalist
35:01 world and the imperialist world when the decline of imperialism had already set in.
35:07 I consider, I think for obvious reasons, probably you guys do as well, 1914 to have been the
35:14 peak of imperialism and of the imperial system.
35:17 And the long-term decline of the imperial system since 1914 has been occurring thanks
35:23 to advancing multicollarity.
35:26 So then how do we see the linkages between the New Cold War with globalization and world
35:31 governance?
35:32 I think it should be clear by now that the US is staging the New Cold War to stem this
35:39 imperial decline with the only means it has left and that is coercive power.
35:45 The United States has become economically so weak, it has run out of carrots with which
35:52 to run the world economy.
35:54 Now it only has sticks.
35:56 And so it is going to win these sticks, but they are not going to have a lot of effect.
36:02 They are not going to have a lot of effect.
36:04 Secondly, the very big line of the US is ensuring that it cannot win the New Cold War, but will
36:09 only suffer perverse consequences, such as putting the system of world governance it
36:14 has sought to construct over the past century in danger.
36:18 And de-dollarization is the chief aspect of it.
36:22 Obviously, boomeranging of sanctions is another part of it.
36:25 And let me just say also to anticipate one of my conclusions, the demise of this system
36:32 of world governance is not something we should shed many tears over.
36:36 It was an imperial system of governance and we now have the opportunity to try to create
36:41 a truly post-imperial system of world governance.
36:44 China will, of course, do a very good job of it.
36:47 And thirdly, of course, the crisis of imperial world governance gives the world, the world
36:53 majority, this is a term I learned on a recent trip to Russia, where the Russian policymaker
37:00 Vlasov said, "Okay, what are we doing?
37:02 Are we joining the third world?
37:04 What grouping are we joining?"
37:06 So they've come up with this idea of the world majority, which is actually not a bad one.
37:10 Anyway, so the crisis of imperial governance gives the world, gives the world majority
37:15 an opportunity to rebuild world governance, including the world monetary and financial
37:21 system on radically different post-imperialist principles.
37:25 And so obviously we know that there are rising alternatives.
37:28 What we are witnessing more and more is the emergence of alternative institutions, which
37:34 can, many of which will probably survive into a new post-imperial governance system.
37:39 So they will probably be the building blocks, or at least the early versions of the new
37:44 post-imperial governance system.
37:45 So we have new multilateral institutions, the new development bank, contingency reserve
37:51 agreement, and so on.
37:53 These are the most important, I think, because of the centrality of China, the new China-centered
37:58 financial and development institutions, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the
38:03 Venture Global Initiative, and more broadly, the many-sided lending activities of China's
38:09 banks, which are not necessarily covered under any of these rubrics.
38:14 There are, of course, increasing number of bilateral agreements that introduce non-Western
38:19 currencies.
38:20 More and more countries are trying to also stabilize their agreements to use each other's
38:27 currencies.
38:28 The currency swaps that stabilize the value of, mutual value of the currencies and so on.
38:33 So there are swap agreements.
38:34 There are alternatives to a Western-dominated payment system, SWIFT.
38:39 There is increasing exploration of the potential of digital currencies, central bank digital
38:44 currencies, to aid in the process, to facilitate trade between countries without the use, resorting
38:51 to the use of the dollar.
38:52 And of course, last but not least, the weaponization of the dollar system by the United States,
39:00 most recently seen in the sequestering of Russian reserves, but it also has many precursors
39:07 that were the seizure of Afghan reserves, the seizure of Venezuelan reserves.
39:11 So all of these are instances of the way in which the United States, despite all the rhetoric
39:18 about how it provides the dollar to the world as a public good, that its financial system
39:23 is a public good.
39:24 In fact, the financial system has always been a public good in the case of the United States
39:28 corporations and entities.
39:30 So the weaponization of the dollar system as it has increased has made more and more
39:35 countries aware of using the US dollar and of the US dollar system.
39:39 And this was another episode of China Now.
39:44 I showed how it opens a window to the present and the future of the Aikchangyayan.
39:48 Hope you enjoyed it.
39:49 See you next time.
39:50 [MUSIC]