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00:00 Welcome to the Carriker Chronicles, the people of show where we're checking the pulse of
00:10 Husker Nation.
00:11 Nicely done.
00:12 Thank you.
00:13 I'm Adam Carriker.
00:14 That's my beautiful daughter Addison Carriker, who is 12.
00:20 That means you've been coming because you started coming on this show when you were
00:23 4.
00:24 So how long you been coming on this show?
00:25 8 years.
00:26 I'm raising a math major ladies and gentlemen.
00:29 She practiced that so much before the show, the intro.
00:33 She's done it for years, although it has varied and changed just a little bit, but you did
00:37 a phenomenal job.
00:38 I'm very, very proud of you.
00:41 Now real quick, what sports are you playing now?
00:44 Volleyball, basketball, and track.
00:46 And what was it like?
00:47 Because I know volleyball is a big deal to you.
00:51 You've gotten to meet John Cook multiple times.
00:53 I don't know if I always remember to tell you, but anytime I chat with him he goes,
00:56 "Make sure you tell your girls I said hello," because he's very melancholy like that.
01:00 So he says hello for all the times I've forgotten to tell you.
01:03 So what was it like watching 92,003 people watch Nebraska volleyball last week?
01:10 It was really cool.
01:11 There were so many people in the stands.
01:14 They were so full.
01:15 It was a legit sea of red, right?
01:17 Yeah.
01:18 Pretty awesome.
01:19 Is it alright with you if we talk just a smidgen of Husker football?
01:23 If we have to.
01:25 Well, that is kind of the whole gist of the show.
01:29 Nebraska versus Colorado.
01:30 Is that alright with you?
01:31 Sure.
01:32 Alright, ladies and gentlemen, do me a real quick favor.
01:34 Because you've got to remember, nobody thought Colorado was going to do what they did down
01:40 in Fort Worth, Texas to TCU.
01:41 Wow, is it Ryan?
01:42 I'm like a freestyle rapper just a smidgen.
01:45 Here's what I'm getting at.
01:47 If Nebraska can pull off this upset, because not a lot of people are thinking we're going
01:51 to pull off the upset.
01:52 If Nebraska can pull off the upset, the Huskers can beat Colorado, like this video, that will
01:58 immediately change your outlook for the rest of the Husker football season.
02:02 Now, here's the deal.
02:03 There's two different styles of football, and frankly, two different styles of building
02:07 a program that are being implemented here.
02:09 From Matt Rule, Deion, Nebraska, Colorado.
02:12 Alright, now, Matt Rule, he's more of a process-oriented guy.
02:16 He's more of a day-by-day kind of guy.
02:18 As he tries to build his Husker football program back up.
02:23 Okay, get 1% better every day, that's one of his mantras.
02:26 Whereas Coach Prime, Colorado, they're almost looking to do things overnight.
02:30 And they're looking to make gigantic waves in the first season.
02:33 And they're off to a good start so far.
02:35 Who knows how good TCU is this year.
02:37 Okay, they lost a lot off their team last year.
02:39 But Nebraska also wants to be methodical.
02:41 They want to ground and pound.
02:43 They want to control the clock and wear you out.
02:46 A run-the-ball-first mentality.
02:48 Whereas Colorado, up-tempo, fast-paced, throw the ball deep, throw the ball all over the yard.
02:53 They're probably going to throw the ball deep 10, if not 10+ times on Saturday versus the Huskers.
02:59 Now, Nebraska, I'm not entirely sure we understand the concept of a successful forward pass just yet.
03:07 You know what a forward pass is, right?
03:09 Can you give me an example?
03:11 That's what I'm talking about, I'm raising them right here in the Carriker House.
03:15 Colorado, they rushed the ball for an abysmal 1.6 yards per carry.
03:20 It's almost like they don't even care.
03:22 Alright, now, Nebraska, here's some interesting stats.
03:26 And I'm going to go through some of these quickly because I've already shared them several times this week.
03:29 Go back and check out the previous Carriker Chronicles if you missed them.
03:31 But there's a couple of interesting stats when it pertains to Colorado and Nebraska that I've not shared yet.
03:36 Time of possession, the last three quarters, Nebraska had the ball more than 7 minutes more.
03:41 In three quarters than Minnesota did.
03:43 Minnesota had the ball for 11 minutes, Nebraska had it for 4 in the first quarter.
03:48 We also outrushed and out-gained the Gophers as well.
03:52 Now, Colorado, this is the team that throws, right?
03:54 They throw the ball.
03:55 Those teams never win the time of possession, right?
03:57 They had the ball more than 9 minutes more than TCU did.
04:00 How does that happen with a passing team?
04:02 Here's how, third down conversions.
04:03 They converted 60% of their third down attempts.
04:07 Now, if they do that for an entire season, which would be a heck of a pace, compared to the 2021 top teams who converted third downs last year,
04:14 that would put Colorado #1 in the nation if they continue to do that.
04:18 They just kept extending drives.
04:20 And you probably heard these stats, but I'm going to share them with you again.
04:22 They had 565 total yards of offense, score record 510 pass yards, and they had 4 receivers with over 100 yards of receiving.
04:30 Now, real quick, I want to give a shout-out to our sponsor.
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05:19 Now, we've got three keys.
05:21 Three keys to the game and a Husker victory.
05:24 I don't know why I said it like that.
05:25 Number one, turnovers.
05:26 Do you believe in giving the ball to the other team?
05:28 No.
05:29 Oh, you're doing great.
05:30 All right, I'm going to be honest with you.
05:31 Nothing else matters.
05:32 If we turn the ball over like we did in Minnesota.
05:34 If we can win the turnover battle.
05:36 Okay, keep in mind, we were minus three in the turnover department, okay, at Minnesota,
05:42 and we lost on a last second fill goal, being minus three in the turnover department.
05:47 Now, Colorado, they were fortunate enough to win the turnover battle.
05:50 And they had a great win, but they won last second by three points.
05:55 It was that close.
05:57 Now, here's the deal.
05:58 If we can win the turnover battle, I really like our chances of winning this football game.
06:04 Number two, third down conversions.
06:06 Now, if your offense stays on the field, is it much easier to score?
06:11 Yeah.
06:12 If the opponent's offense is not on the field, is it harder for them to score?
06:16 Yeah.
06:17 Yeah, you're--oh, man, she's going to be a college football analyst.
06:19 You're doing great.
06:20 Bam!
06:21 All right, now, here's the deal.
06:22 I talked about Colorado's third down conversion rate, their success rate, earlier in the show.
06:26 Even Matt Rule said Nebraska's got to get better on third downs.
06:30 Okay, if we keep our offense on the field, it's a fairly simple concept to understand,
06:34 and we control the clock, and we keep their offense off the field, we can wear them out,
06:39 and they can't score, and we can start to wear them down, like we're starting to do.
06:44 We can wear them down like we were starting to do versus Minnesota, okay, in that fourth quarter.
06:49 And then finding a way to win.
06:51 All right, Addison, what is the ultimate goal?
06:54 You want to have fun.
06:55 But in sports, in a game, versus your opponent, what's the ultimate thing you want to do?
06:59 Beat them by at least one point.
07:01 Yeah, to score one more point than your opponent.
07:03 My dad, David Carriger, Muiyentelehente, he goes, "Adam, I was a kid about your age."
07:08 He goes, "Adam, it's not that hard.
07:09 All you have to do is score one more point than your opponent."
07:11 Does that not seem simple?
07:13 It's very simple.
07:14 Yeah, it seems very simple.
07:15 I'm with you on that.
07:16 All right, now, finding a way to win.
07:17 Now, here's the deal.
07:18 Credit to Colorado, okay, because they converted a key fourth down on offense late in the game
07:23 to score their go-ahead touchdown.
07:25 Okay, and then they needed a defensive stop on fourth down, and they stopped TCU on fourth down.
07:30 They had two key fourth down plays late in the fourth quarter, one to go ahead and one to seal the victory
07:36 on offense and defense, and they found a way to be successful on both.
07:39 They found a way to win.
07:41 Okay, Nebraska, on the other hand, all it takes is one.
07:47 All right, all it takes.
07:48 You get that first big, close game victory, and the next one will come much easier.
07:53 Now, before last Saturday, all right, before any college football games were played,
07:57 Nebraska was a seven-point favorite to beat Colorado.
08:01 Now that there's been some college football games played, things have shifted a little bit.
08:04 Now, Colorado opened as a one-and-a-half-point favorite over Nebraska.
08:08 It's gradually grown to three-and-a-half points at the moment they're recording this video.
08:12 Who knows how much it will change going forward.
08:14 The over-under is 58-and-a-half points.
08:16 I found this interesting, though.
08:18 According to James Parker, Fan Nation, there's a fancy computer index model, okay,
08:23 that simulates a game 20,000 times in order to figure out who's going to win the game.
08:29 All right, and that complex model, computer model simulation, gives Nebraska a 59% chance to win this game.
08:37 Now, next up is our predictions, all right.
08:40 Colorado, the way they look anyways, might have a top-ten offense in the entire country.
08:46 They may not even have a top-50 defense in the entire country, though,
08:51 because Colorado allowed nearly 550 total yards of offense to TCU.
08:57 On contrast, Nebraska's defense only gave up three points to Minnesota until the last five minutes of the game,
09:04 and then Nebraska's defense was dealt two short fields, and we know how that went.
09:08 I don't know exactly how the Blackshirts will do, okay, this Saturday,
09:12 but their 3-3-5 defense is a good type of defense to potentially match up well with Colorado's style of offense.
09:19 I know, TCU runs a 3-3-5 defense, Adam, I'm aware of that.
09:23 Now, here's the deal, and I know that TCU, their last four opponents dating back to last year,
09:28 have been high-quality opponents.
09:30 That being said, TCU was much better last year, and even when you take that into consideration,
09:35 they've given up nearly 50 points a game over their last four games.
09:39 Exactly 47 points per game.
09:42 In fairness to the Horned Frogs, okay, I think that's what they do,
09:46 TCU really had no idea what to expect from Colorado.
09:49 They really had no idea.
09:50 I mean, you can turn on Jackson State if you want the film, they probably did, I'm sure they did,
09:54 but you have no idea what to expect in their defense from Colorado.
09:58 Now Nebraska does.
09:59 They've got tape, okay, and they've got tape when it matters with the game on the line,
10:03 and they've got an extra couple of days to study that tape and prepare for Colorado.
10:08 I am a little bit concerned about our lack of ability to pressure Shadur Sanders without blitzing,
10:13 with just three- and four-man lines, okay, but at the same time,
10:17 Colorado walked out of last week in Fort Worth, Texas, with zero sacks from their defense.
10:24 Real quick, I do feel like our special teams are solid, whereas Colorado missed a field goal.
10:28 They only averaged 10 yards per return when you average their punt-kick returns together,
10:32 and Nebraska averaged more than double that on their returns.
10:36 One final quick thing before we get to our prediction.
10:38 Back to that computer fancy index model, which I did find interesting, obviously.
10:44 Nebraska predictions.
10:45 The index rakes the Cornhuskers as the number 51 team in the nation, out of 133,
10:50 and projected to be 3.3 points better than an average opponent,
10:54 and estimated to win 5.6 games this season,
10:58 whereas Colorado, the FPI jumped the Buffaloes up 31 spots this week on that same poll,
11:05 coming in at number 71 overall now at this point in time,
11:08 estimated to win 4.7 games this season, and be 2 points worse than an average team on a neutral field.
11:15 Alright, it's prediction time, Addison.
11:17 What is your prediction?
11:19 I think Colorado will have 42 points, and Nebraska will score 35.
11:25 What?!
11:27 I have failed as a father.
11:29 Why? Why did you pick that?
11:31 Because, okay, so my defense, Jacob picked this out, not me!
11:36 Jacob, your sister's driving the bus right over you, man.
11:40 Alright, so why did Jacob pick this?
11:42 He said, because, like you said before, Colorado is more offense than defense,
11:48 but Nebraska is more defense than offense,
11:51 and he said because they kind of bounce out, he thinks it's going to be more of a higher scoring game.
11:57 Alright, alright, alright.
11:59 My prediction, with a molly whopping 51% confidence here,
12:04 Colorado 27, Nebraska, pause for effect.
12:08 I don't know.
12:10 28. Now here's why. Here's why, because I literally was a coin flip.
12:14 Here's why. Colorado was doubted all offseason.
12:16 They came into Fort Worth 10th, and they were like,
12:19 they came into Fort Worth, Texas with not one chips, not two chips, but a whole forest on their shoulder.
12:24 Okay, can they get up like that two weeks in a row?
12:27 Nebraska's going to be motivated. Nebraska's got extra days to get ready.
12:31 All week long, Colorado's just going to hear about how good they are, how awesome they are, how bad Nebraska is.
12:36 By the way, Nebraska's hearing the same freaking thing.
12:39 I wonder if Colorado can do it two weeks in a row,
12:42 hearing nothing but positive things,
12:45 and Nebraska being doubted isn't a little extra motivated.
12:48 All right, now, got questions for you fine folks at home.
12:51 Hit me up in the comments below.
12:53 Addison, what's that first question?
12:55 How big is this game to you?
12:57 How much does this game matter to you, the fan at home?
13:00 How big is this game to you?
13:01 What's your score prediction?
13:02 Let me know in the comments below.
13:04 Do you wish we played teams like Colorado and Oklahoma more often?
13:08 I know I do. I miss those rivalries.
13:10 And I know college football will never be the same whether you like it, whether you don't,
13:13 but I wish we could play them, and we did play them more often.
13:16 In case you missed it, I did an entire Coach Prime vs. Matt Rule video.
13:21 A lot of research, a lot of recon, a lot of fun went into that video.
13:25 Go check it out at CarrikerChronicles.com if you missed it.
13:28 And as always, following each and every Nebraska football game will be my gut reaction.
13:33 Also, at CarrikerChronicles.com.
13:35 Thank you for joining me.
13:36 Thank you for having me.
13:37 You did awesome.
13:38 You're like a professional college football analyst now.
13:41 Definitely.
13:42 I'm going to start taking notes from you. Is that cool?
13:44 I definitely don't rely on Jacob or anything.
13:46 All right. Until next time, Husker Nation, go Big Red and always remember to throw the bones.
13:51 - Bones.