Pidato Presiden AS Donald Trump mengenai kenaikan tarif impor secara resiprokal kepada beberapa negara mitra dagangnya, memicu gejolak di pasar keuangan global. Sebagai reaksi atas sentimen ini, sejumlah indeks saham bursa-bursa utama dunia mengalami koreksi tajam, terutama di bursa-bursa negara maju seperti Amerika Serikat, Jerman, dan Jepang.
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00:00Indonesia's economy is in a critical period.
00:05Thank you for joining us on Indeks Harga Samgabungan.
00:08The stock price could be corrected in early April 2025
00:11after the long holiday of Eid al-Adha.
00:14The stock price could be down in response to US President Donald Trump's policy
00:18on import tariffs.
00:20Indeks Harga Samgabungan or EHSG
00:26was closed in the green zone in the last trading
00:28after the long holiday of Eid al-Adha 2025.
00:31According to RTI Business data,
00:33EHSG increased by 0.59%
00:35and was successfully closed at the psychological level of 6,500,
00:38precisely at the level of 6,510.62
00:41in the trading on Thursday, March 27, 2025.
00:44This position is the highest since March 14, 2025.
00:49However, year-on-year,
00:51the movement of EHSG was corrected by 8.04%.
00:56EMITEN Blue Chip is still a supporter of EMITEN Bank BUMN.
01:00Sampete Bank Rakyat Indonesia TBK or BBRI
01:03was closed by 1.25%
01:06at the level of 4,050 rupiah per share.
01:09Sampete Bank Mandiri Persero TBK or BMRI
01:12was closed by 0.97%
01:14at the level of 5,200 rupiah per share.
01:17From EMITEN Konglomerasi Sampete Pantai Indah Kapuk TBK
01:21was closed by 9.98%
01:24at the level of 10,000 rupiah per share.
01:26Sampete Astra Internasional TBK was closed by 2.50%
01:30at the level of 4,920 rupiah per share.
01:34Sampete Aman Mineral International TBK or AMMN
01:37was closed by 3.37%
01:39at the level of 5,385 rupiah per share.
01:43Apart from the positive note,
01:45in the middle of Indonesia's long holiday stock market
01:48at the time of Eid al-Adha 2025,
01:50the stock market in some countries is still moving
01:52and tends to experience pressure.
01:54Summarized from various sources,
01:56data from March 27 to April 4, 2025,
01:59the Shanghai index fell by 2.06%.
02:02While from the United States,
02:03a great pressure occurred on the Dow Jones index,
02:06down 9.42%.
02:08S&P 500 fell by 10.88%
02:11and Nasdaq Angelop 12.45%.
02:16In general, the stock market is under pressure
02:18due to the high import tariff policy
02:20of US President Donald Trump
02:22and China's response to the tariff.
02:26China's Ministry of Trade
02:28said on Friday, April 4, 2025
02:31that it will issue a 34% tariff
02:34for all American products.
02:36This statement disappointed investors
02:38who previously hoped that the two countries would vote
02:40before taking a response step.
02:42Vice President of PT Kiwum Indonesia Security,
02:44Octavianus Audi, said
02:46the market will begin to implement
02:48various impacts from a number of sentiments
02:50including the US' reciprocal tariff policy,
02:53the weakening of the exchange rate,
02:55the decrease in the price of some of Indonesia's top commodities
02:58such as coal,
02:59as well as the possibility of the expropriation of the Dovep flower tribe
03:02which is more limited than the initial projection.
03:04Market concerns also arise
03:06due to the potential delay in Indonesia's economic growth.
03:09Recently, the ASEAN figure expropriated
03:11Indonesia's GDP growth projection
03:13in 2025 to 4.7% annually,
03:16down from previously 4.9% annually
03:19as a response to the impact of the reciprocal tariff
03:22from the United States on Indonesia
03:24by 32%.
03:26Various sources, IDX channel.
03:31And we will discuss the Spotlight market
03:33for today's discussion,
03:34especially in the middle,
03:35as it strengthens to the level of 6,500
03:37in the last discussion before the holiday of Eid
03:39in 2025.
03:40And the two banks,
03:41Imbara Bank, BBRI and BMRI,
03:43as ISG supporters,
03:44increased by 1.2% and 0.9%.
03:47Indonesia was hit by the import tariff.
03:49The United States is 32% weaker
03:51to the level of 16,822.
03:54And next, we will go to the economic agenda.
03:57Among them are from the United States,
03:59there is a data on consumer credit in February.
04:01Then also from the United States,
04:03there is the Red Book Index.
04:05And the European Union, the ECB,
04:08and also from France,
04:09there is trading.
04:10From Japan, there is the issuance of a credit bank
04:12in February.
04:13And there is also a road transaction.
04:15Then from South Korea,
04:16there is a road transaction.
04:17And also from Indonesia,
04:18there is the release of inflation data.
04:22And next,
04:23we will discuss the Agenda Emiten.
04:25Among them is ROTI and also ARNA,
04:27hosting the European Union.
04:28While BVIC,
04:29the payment of the BVIC series coupons,
04:3102SBCN1 to 23 and BVIC,
04:35the payment of the BVIC series coupons,
04:38as you can see on the television screen.
04:40NISP, cash dividend,
04:42Tele Rupo Emisi Obligasi Berkelanjutan 1 Tahap 2
04:46in 2016,
04:47and Tele Menggelar Rupo Emisi Obligasi Berkelanjutan 1
04:51Tahap 3 in 2017.
04:53And Mora Payment,
04:54Ijarah Fee Series SC Mora,
04:5701BCN3 to 18.
05:01And next,
05:02we will take a look
05:03at the Asia-Middle East Stock Exchanges this morning.
05:12Yes, Mr. Birsa,
05:13we are sorry
05:14for the error in the data we have provided
05:16in the Asia-Middle East Stock Exchanges this morning.
05:21Okay.
05:22And to discuss this morning,
05:24we will discuss with Mr. Gembong Swito,
05:27the Director of Education and Investment Systemology.
05:34Good morning, Mr. Gembong.
05:36Good morning, Mr. Bikin.
05:38If you don't mind,
05:39please excuse me, Mr. Gembong.
05:41You're welcome, sir.
05:42Okay. You are in Jakarta, right?
05:44Yes, I am in Jakarta.
05:45We are waiting for the opening of the open market
05:49after the 27th holiday
05:50until the 8th of April as an opening.
05:54The atmosphere of investors' concern
05:56seems to be quite concerned, Mr. Gembong,
06:01because during the holiday yesterday,
06:03there was a surprise
06:04delivered by the President of the United States
06:06related to the 32% import tariff
06:09to Indonesia
06:10as a retaliation of the import products
06:13exported from the United States
06:16to Indonesia
06:17which has been imposed an import tariff.
06:20So this means
06:21that this is a policy of retaliation
06:23from the United States
06:24to its trading partners.
06:26What is the implication for the IHSG, Mr. Gembong?
06:29Okay, if we look at the journey in 2025,
06:33there are two events.
06:34The first event in February,
06:37Trump announced the trade war
06:39to his main trading partners,
06:41China, Mexico, and Canada.
06:44That's 10% to 25%.
06:46It has made the market drop drastically globally.
06:49And the second, the shock,
06:51was on April 2,
06:54Trump announced almost everything,
06:57almost all trading partners,
06:59were affected by the reciprocal tariff.
07:02The size is different
07:04depending on the level of the deficit.
07:08Well, Indonesia hit 34%,
07:14and that will be very significant.
07:16And the impact,
07:17from April 2 until now,
07:20on the 8th,
07:21the market is shocked,
07:23almost the majority of all exchanges,
07:26all investment instruments, commodities,
07:28will sell off, or the dominance will drop.
07:31So it's very significant.
07:32So if we draw the most
07:35close to the US market,
07:37just the index,
07:38from April 27 to April 8,
07:42it has dropped almost 9% to 12%
07:46when the index.
07:47Asia is the same, even worse.
07:49Well, Indonesia is still not affected,
07:51the effect is because of the holiday,
07:54Eid.
07:55Today it will be open,
07:56and most likely it will open,
07:58gap down,
07:59or drop.
08:00Something like that.
08:01Okay.
08:02What can be anticipated by the market,
08:05actually,
08:06related to various projections,
08:09regarding ESG trading,
08:11it must have been a long vacation yesterday,
08:12after we then got
08:14the shock from the US President,
08:16Donald Trump,
08:17about this import tariff, Mr. Gembong.
08:18The market reaction will definitely be negative.
08:21Sell-off action,
08:22aka selling,
08:23will be more dominant.
08:24That's what makes the prices,
08:25and all the stocks,
08:27especially the big banks,
08:28or blue chips,
08:30whose foreign exchange rate is quite significant,
08:32it will drop drastically.
08:335% to 10% maybe.
08:35Well,
08:36the stock market has made an anticipation
08:39and an update,
08:40that,
08:41yes,
08:42ARB,
08:43asymmetric,
08:4415%
08:45is valid for today.
08:46And the second,
08:47from the trading hub side,
08:49from ESG,
08:50from the beginning it was 5%,
08:52now it's 8%,
08:5315%,
08:54and 20%
08:55as an anticipation.
08:56Hopefully,
08:57no,
08:58almost the majority of our shareholders
09:00do not touch the ARB level.
09:02But the concern is that it will happen.
09:05Okay.
09:06Alright.
09:07If we look at the response from the government itself
09:09regarding the tariff reduction
09:11from the United States
09:13regarding imported products
09:16from Indonesia,
09:17does this actually meet the market expectations?
09:21No.
09:22Mr. Gembong,
09:23yesterday,
09:24Erlangga Hartarto
09:26said that
09:27what will be done by Indonesia
09:29is to find a way to negotiate.
09:33How do you see this?
09:35If we look at the government's speed,
09:38it should be less responsive.
09:40As an example,
09:42our neighbor,
09:44our competitor,
09:45Vietnam,
09:46they immediately responded
09:49that Vietnam is also affected
09:51at a level of 34% or more.
09:54They will immediately negotiate with Trump.
09:57Vietnam decided to reduce the tariff
10:01to a level of 5% to free.
10:05Vietnam has already done that.
10:07Our government is still
10:09only stating
10:11that it will negotiate.
10:13But what is the concrete existence?
10:15We don't know yet.
10:16That's what will be negatively responded by the market.
10:19Okay.
10:20Mr. Gembong,
10:21let's continue with the next news.
10:23Stay with us,
10:24we will be right back.
10:27We will look at the data
10:29from the movement of the ISG
10:31from the opening of C1 until now.
10:33As you can see on television,
10:35the ISG is at the level
10:386,510,620.
10:46That's the previous level.
10:48The last level,
10:49the ISG is at the level of 5,912,062.
10:54And the sectors that lead the weakness,
10:57the most significant is the technology sector
11:00which has decreased by 10.38%.
11:02The level, as you can see on the television,
11:05we pass through the data from RTI.
11:07Then, the basic industries
11:09or the basic industries
11:11also burdened the ISG
11:13in the opening of C1 today,
11:15weakened by 10.07%.
11:18Followed by the cyclic sector
11:22which weakened by 7.63%.
11:25Top gainers,
11:27there are Bali ASDM,
11:28Uang, Cyber, Kuas, and BSCM.
11:30Top losers,
11:31there are Adaro, Pegas,
11:32AMMN, INDF, and PTBF.
11:34There are Unilever, NKP, and KLBF.
11:37The overall sector in the morning
11:39weakened significantly.
11:42We will directly discuss with Mr. Gembong.
11:44Mr. Gembong.
11:46Yes, Mas Ritchie.
11:47Looking at the opening data of the market today,
11:49according to your prediction, Mr. Gembong,
11:51what can be done?
11:54I will ask Mr. Gembong again.
11:58Remember, maybe,
11:59if we look at how many sectors
12:02the stock price
12:04may enter a fairly premium price.
12:07In the middle of the weakness,
12:09can this be a momentum
12:11to enter the stock market
12:13with that premium price
12:14because the price is getting cheaper?
12:16Or do you still see the possibilities,
12:18at least what is projected
12:20in today's trade,
12:22will continue to continue the weakness?
12:25Today will definitely continue the weakness
12:27because this is a response
12:29from the global market.
12:32So what is being done
12:33is not only the domestic sector of Indonesia,
12:36but this is all imbibed.
12:40Moreover,
12:42on April 27-7, we are on vacation.
12:46Whereas at that time,
12:49the global market was down,
12:51a fairly significant correction
12:53of the impact of the tariff war on the 2nd.
12:57Dow Jones 9-12%.
13:00Our imagination,
13:01ESG has entered the trading hall this morning.
13:04The trading hall with the latest rules
13:06at 8%,
13:07now at 5.9%,
13:08which means 9%.
13:10Will this continue?
13:11This week will continue.
13:13There are still no significant signs
13:15to make a purchase.
13:18That's why our stock recommendations
13:20are all open gap down.
13:23And it turns out,
13:24directly in Samsung Blue Chip,
13:26especially the foreign domain,
13:28is an average of 14-15%.
13:31Directly ARB asymmetric.
13:33Asymmetric.
13:34So this is what causes
13:36we have to cool down first.
13:38Fundamentally,
13:39there is no problem related to Samsung.
13:41However, the sentiment factor is negative
13:43and it is all over the place.
13:45So White NC is better.
13:46So wait at level 2-3 today
13:49until the market starts to cool down again.
13:52Okay.
13:53Can you elaborate further, Mr. Gempong,
13:58for White NC,
14:00if we then specify the context
14:03to investors,
14:05medium and long term.
14:07If White NC,
14:09do they hold first?
14:10Or what?
14:12Have they started to make a gradual purchase?
14:16Because this momentum rarely happens.
14:21In 2020, COVID,
14:24when there is a trading halt,
14:27there is a panic in the market,
14:29there is a sell-off market,
14:30for those who are medium and long term,
14:33they can already buy stocks
14:36that are fundamentally good,
14:38the valuation is also very cheap,
14:41and the purchase is done gradually.
14:44Why gradually?
14:45Because the market response,
14:48this negative sentiment market,
14:50in Indonesia,
14:51it may take 2-3 days
14:53as the response.
14:54Something like that.
14:55Especially for the big bank.
14:57Okay.
14:58For the big bank itself,
15:00I want to discuss with you,
15:01before the holiday,
15:03the price is still not close to the normal price.
15:07Moreover,
15:09when we look at today's market data,
15:11it means that for stocks
15:13that have not yet reached the normal price,
15:16then there is another correction,
15:18this means that it is actually a momentum
15:21to be able to take advantage of
15:22entering a very cheap level, Mr. Gembong.
15:25Correct.
15:26So when we talk about the market condition itself,
15:30this is the effect of market panic,
15:32negative psychological sentiment,
15:34then what happens is a sell-off.
15:36For example,
15:37BCS is currently at 7,400.
15:40BRI at level 3,400
15:43is already a trading halt.
15:45BRI yesterday was closed at 4,050,
15:48the normal price of BRI is on average at 4,700
15:51to 4,800 this year.
15:54However, as soon as the market is in a sell-off position,
15:58then BRI immediately gap down,
16:00down 14.5%,
16:02aka already ARB.
16:04Well, it means,
16:06most likely it will look for
16:08the lowest points or prices again.
16:12Maybe BRI can be under 3,000.
16:14Okay.
16:15When talking at the current level.
16:20However, for those with a medium to long view,
16:23this is a very good opportunity
16:26with a steady purchase.
16:29Okay.
16:30We will also meet this morning's election candidates,
16:32from you, Mr. Gembong.
16:33You can watch it on television
16:35for this morning's election candidates.
16:36From Mr. Gembong, among them is KLBF,
16:39then there is Aster International,
16:41there is Cepin and also BMRI
16:43with support and resistance levels.
16:46For KLBF, buy at level 1,000.
16:51Then for Aster International,
16:54buy at level 4,600.
16:56Cepin, buy at level 4,200.
16:58And BMRI, buy at level 4,750.
17:01A brief analysis, Mr. Gembong,
17:04for each of the candidates
17:05before we end this morning's discussion.
17:07Okay.
17:09The four candidates,
17:11the strategy we do is open gap down.
17:14But when looking at today's market,
17:16it will definitely be picked up at the support level.
17:19For example, KLBF,
17:22buy at level 1,000.
17:24The TP is at 13,650.
17:27If fundamentally,
17:29KLBF has experienced
17:31an increase in revenue,
17:34i.e. profit,
17:35in the range of 11% to 12%.
17:38And this does not depend on the fact that
17:41the valuation is quite cheap.
17:43Because the standard of KLBF,
17:44the current price is 1,700.
17:46This is the price of 1,000.
17:47This is the first in KLBF.
17:49The second, we enter the bank sector.
17:55I took BMRI with an open gap down at 4,750.
18:004,750 because fundamentally,
18:04plus dividend.
18:06The dividend in BMRI is around 10%.
18:08That's the highest.
18:10In BMRI,
18:11with a purchasing level of 4,700 or 4,500,
18:16this is quite okay.
18:17That's the second.
18:19Cepin,
18:20it is leveled by at 4,200.
18:23And the target price is at 4,800.
18:26And finally, on the side of Astra,
18:28Astra International,
18:29yesterday at level 4,950,
18:33I waited for an open gap down.
18:36Now at 4,750.
18:39Our target in Astra is around 5,200.
18:43Everything we say is fundamentally good enough.
18:46The dividend is quite okay.
18:48Now just wait for the cooling down
18:51from the response market itself.
18:53Okay.
18:54Wait and see becomes a trading strategy today
18:57which is quite safe in your opinion,
18:58which is also recommended.
19:00In short, Mr. Gembong,
19:02the support resistance of ISG today,
19:05what level will it be?
19:07Okay.
19:08When the market panics like this,
19:10there will definitely be a trading halt.
19:12The trading halt that is recommended
19:14from the latest regulation is 8%, 15%.
19:17Now, ISG support for this year,
19:225,875 or 5,900 has been met.
19:26It means the second support is at level 5,500 this week.
19:31This week, it is likely to be picked up again.
19:34If we talk about ISG,
19:36if the resistance rises at level 6,500,
19:41it's a bit difficult to pick up again
19:44in the relatively strong negative sentiment weeks today.
19:49Okay.
19:50That ISG weakness today
19:52becomes one thing that investors can pay close attention to.
19:56There are some concerns,
19:57we then understand from the point of view of the investor.
20:00But this can also be seen as a chance
20:02or an opportunity for investors to enter stocks
20:05at a premium price before correction.
20:09After correction, it can be entered at a cheaper price.
20:12Mr. Gembong, thank you for joining us.
20:15Good luck to you, Mr. Gembong.
20:16I always see you.
20:18See you.
20:19Okay.