Modelling shows Labor ahead in 10 seats where it was behind six weeks ago, putting it in a stronger position to form government. The research also found Labor at 50.2 per cent of the vote in national two-party preferred terms, with the Coalition on 49.8 per cent. Polling will likely continue to be tight ahead of election day on May 3.
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TVTranscript
00:00You've got to get a new poll.
00:04Today's MRP model from YouGov tells us, consistent with other opinion polling, that Labor has
00:09improved its position in the last month or so.
00:12It even raises the possibility that Anthony Albanese could govern in majority after the
00:17election.
00:18At this stage, that's still unlikely.
00:22YouGov reckons the probability of a Labor majority if an election were held today is
00:27about 38%.
00:29Given what we know about the strengths and limitations of MRP models, my gut feeling
00:35is that the chances are a bit lower than that.
00:39The route for Labor to keep its majority is narrow.
00:42They'd need to limit their seat losses and probably pick up some seats.
00:46This model suggests their best chances of pick-ups are in Brisbane, in seats currently
00:51held by the Greens.
00:53But the fact that we're even talking about it as a possibility shows how significant
00:58Labor's improvement in polling has been.
01:01So what's happened to see this kind of a shift?
01:04YouGov suggests it's being driven by the opposition, kicking some own goals with some of their
01:09policy ideas.
01:10Dutton needed to win working class votes in outer suburban Sydney and Melbourne, but his
01:15Trump-style policies of ending work from home and cutting 40,000 public servants have seen
01:21his support dramatically impacted.
01:23Overall, this model and other opinion polls are still painting a picture of a very competitive
01:28election, where things can change quickly.
01:32I won't be making any bold predictions about who'll be Prime Minister on May 4th, and I
01:37suggest you do the same.