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00:00A ceasefire is agreed in the Black Sea and on attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
00:05Moscow has confirmed the news.
00:07This is the major development to come from the talks in Saudi Arabia.
00:10Those talks involve Russian and American representatives who met in Riyadh.
00:15Ukraine wasn't present, but President Volodymyr Zelensky says
00:18that the U.S. deal with Russia represents the right steps.
00:21He says he will ask Donald Trump for weapons and new sanctions on Russia
00:25if Moscow breaks the ceasefire.
00:28On the ground in Ukraine this Tuesday, Russian missile strikes on the Kherson region.
00:32Zelensky added he hopes the U.S. will realize at the end of the day
00:36Russian narratives about Ukraine are false.
00:39The statements made by Trump's chief envoy Steve Whitkoff
00:42are all in line, he says, with Kremlin claims.
00:46An issue that disappointed Ukraine's president,
00:48Zelensky is critical of the U.S. decision to restore Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports.
00:55Volodymyr Zelensky spoke a little earlier.
00:59We believe that this is a weakening of the position and a weakening of the sanctions.
01:04We do not yet know the details, and we were not present at the meeting,
01:07so I can't say anything, but this was not on our agenda.
01:11The American side raised it, Umarov contacted me,
01:15and I said that this is not a discussion about an unconditional ceasefire,
01:18or even a partial ceasefire in the sky and at sea.
01:22So, a deal announced, but there are many other issues to resolve.
01:27Let's get some analysis.
01:28Bringing Peter Zalmayev from the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.
01:31Peter joins us live from Kyiv.
01:33Peter, a very good evening to you.
01:35It's always a pleasure to have you on France 24.
01:37Do you think we are on the brink of what you've been waiting for, peace in Ukraine?
01:45I'd like to think along those lines, but I share the skepticism of our president.
01:51We are seeing clear tactics of the Kremlin to drag out the time,
01:56to pretend to go along with Donald Trump's wishes,
02:01and to continue bombarding and pulverizing Ukrainian cities,
02:06and dragging out the time in order to blame Ukraine for the violations,
02:11or whatever ceasefire is reached, etc.
02:14Vladimir Putin does not feel like this would be a good time to stop the war.
02:20I mean, he is on a slow, but still on the offensive.
02:26They're grabbing more and more Ukrainian territory.
02:29They were able to dislodge the Ukrainian troops in the Russian area of Kursk,
02:36depriving Ukraine of that bargaining chip, etc.
02:40So, I think Vladimir Putin is feeling very confident he can continue playing Donald Trump for a fool,
02:46buttering up his ego by presenting portraits of Donald Trump to his envoy,
02:54and telling him that he prayed for Donald Trump's survival after the assassination attempt, etc.
03:01So, he's feeling pretty confident he can continue to run circles around the American president.
03:06So, the big question is when and whether Donald Trump's patience with that will run out,
03:12or if we're talking about some kind of an agreement,
03:15a secret kind of protocol between the Russian and the American side
03:20to essentially offer Ukraine a ceasefire or a deal that would be tantamount to capitulation.
03:29Russia, so far, is getting everything it wants,
03:33and nothing really that would be too hurtful to it, as far as concessions go.
03:38I can understand and I can hear your scepticism about what's been decided, Peter,
03:43and we're still waiting for more details to emerge, of course,
03:46but Vladimir Zelensky immediately saying that if Russia doesn't respect this,
03:50he will seek from Trump weapons and more sanctions on Russia.
03:55It's one thing asking for that, I suppose the big question would be, would Trump do it?
03:59Well, Donald Trump has sent us decidedly, if you will, mixed messages.
04:07If you remember during the election campaign, he said that he would put two sides together,
04:13and if, let's say, Russia refused to go along,
04:17he would give Ukraine as much or as many weapons, if not more, than Biden ever did.
04:22And now he's saying that the only way to stop the war is to stop arming Ukraine.
04:29If he withdraws military assistance to Ukraine after that meeting with Zelensky in the Oval Office,
04:35then he restores it.
04:36So this really is impossible to really predict what Donald Trump is going to say or to do next.
04:42But his envoy's recent interview to Tucker Carlson, I'm talking about Mr. Witkoff,
04:49was very disconcerting to me because Mr. Witkoff essentially repeated word for word Russia's propaganda
04:57about the legitimacy of these so-called referenda in the four regions,
05:01which were roundly condemned as illegitimate, as unfair and untransparent, obviously.
05:06He repeated the Kremlin's lies about many things.
05:10At one point, I was wondering whether he was the envoy of Trump or the envoy of Vladimir Putin.
05:17And he's a confidant of Donald Trump for many years, we understand.
05:21So if that is anything to go by, then it just shows you where Donald Trump, where his sympathies lie.
05:28And unfortunately, they don't seem to lie with Ukraine.
05:32One wonders what the possible negotiation tactic might be coming from Trump's side of these things.
05:38There's been talk about the nuclear power plant.
05:40Zaporizhia remains under Russian occupation, as you and I are speaking now.
05:46Clearly, Vladimir Zelensky is saying that none of that is on the table for negotiation.
05:50It should come back to Ukraine.
05:51However, Russia doesn't want to give up that Zaporizhia power plant.
05:56Again, another issue and no sign on the horizon of an answer, of a solution to that.
06:03Well, that particular issue tells me that there's a lot of improvisation on the American side,
06:09a lot of things that are half-baked, that are being proposed.
06:13And if Donald Trump were a bit more careful, if his acolytes did a little bit of homework,
06:19they would know that according to the Russian constitution,
06:22these areas that have been captured and more up to the administrative borders of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk,
06:28they are already part of Russia according to the constitution.
06:31So, I just can't see how Putin would ad hoc or in any other format relinquish that strategic object,
06:40that strategic power plant and that strategic land that belongs to Russia according to their own constitution.
06:48So, Donald Trump is setting himself a sort of trap by kind of making a big announcement about this
06:54and without really putting some thought into what it would entail.
06:57Like you said in your question, I just can't see any motivation Vladimir Putin would have to give up that piece of infrastructure.
07:10How would he explain it to his generals?
07:12I mean, whether he bothers explaining anything to his population, that's another question.
07:16But there are still people around him in his immediate circle and those worker respondents,
07:21folks that are constantly writing and commenting on telegram channels,
07:25who are very or would be extremely unhappy about that sort of deal.
07:30And the fact that the US, Trump, is going to help reopen Russian agriculture, farming exports, farming produce, fertilizer, that sort of thing.
07:42Zelensky is not happy about that. I take it you agree with Zelensky.
07:46This is a sign that America is giving more to Russia than it would to Ukraine.
07:50Precisely. And Russia is already getting some sanctions lifted, at least there's talk of that.
07:55And these limited ceasefires, first we were talking about the ceasefire that would put an end for 30 days on strikes on civilian infrastructure.
08:05Well, that does not prevent Putin from bombarding and pulverizing our towns and cities every day, just like you mentioned.
08:12Kherson, two days ago it was Kiev, a few days before it was Odessa.
08:17All of a sudden no one is talking about it in the Trump administration, as if that is okay.
08:22And then if you're talking about a ceasefire on any sort of warfare in the Black Sea, well, that also works in Russia's favor,
08:29because in this asymmetrical warfare that we have seen over the last three years in the Black Sea,
08:34it's Ukraine that's been on the up, it's Ukraine that's been able to dislodge and neutralize and destroy Russian frigates and Russian warships, etc.
08:42So once again, we're seeing another sort of feather in Putin's cap when we're talking about these negotiations.
08:50So, so far, the tally is decidedly, unfortunately, in Russia's favor.
08:56Peter Zalmayev, thank you for joining us. Please stay safe, sir.
08:59Peter Zalmayev from the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, joining us from Kiev.
09:03Always a pleasure, sir.
09:04Do look after yourself and your family. We will have more, of course, as it develops.
09:08Thank you to Peter Zalmayev from the Eurasia Democracy Initiative for giving us that analysis of the situation.
09:14We, of course, will have more.