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00:00Get the analysis, John Luff joins a senior research fellow at the new Eurasian Strategy
00:04Center. John, thanks for being with us. For you, any surprises in what either Lavrov or Rubio had
00:09to say? I would say absolutely no surprises. It was pretty clear that they were going to be talking
00:16today about restarting the diplomatic relationship between the US and Russia, which has obviously
00:22crashed since the start of the big war in Ukraine. They are trying to lay a path to
00:29a summit meeting between President Trump and President Putin, and they are going to see
00:34whether they can find some sort of agreement to end the war in Ukraine. I find it interesting
00:40that both sides talk about the conflict rather than the war. Now, it remains to be seen whether
00:47they can do anything short term to address some of the issues that the National Security Advisor
00:54Mike Waltz referred to, the fact that the Americans believe that concessions need to
00:59be made on both sides. I think the Russians are taking a different approach here. They believe
01:04that they can actually win this negotiation because they feel they have some very strong cards,
01:11and President Trump is really focused on just trying to demonstrate, perhaps through a ceasefire,
01:17that he has brought hostilities to an end. And it's fair to say, I think, that the Russians are
01:23being consistent in what they're saying. Lavrov's saying no NATO troops, no EU troops, no NATO
01:29membership for Ukraine. From the Americans, less so. There are inconsistencies in what's been said,
01:33and I'm thinking back to what Defence Secretary Hegseth had to say, and then what Vance had to
01:38say, and now, of course, what's been said today. Yeah, it does feel as though within the American
01:43camp, there are different positions. We've heard even President Trump saying that he could use
01:50some economic coercion to persuade the Russians at least to come to the table and negotiate in
01:56good faith. And we're seeing Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor, saying that territory has to be
02:04discussed, and the implication is that the sides will have to find a compromise. But this is a very,
02:11I think, sort of Western way of approaching a negotiation of this kind. The Russians feel,
02:17I think, they've got wind in their sails. They can see that President Trump is in a hurry.
02:22I was in Munich at the weekend, at the Munich Security Conference, and the Special Envoy for
02:28Ukraine, General Kellogg, made, I thought, a telling remark. He said that we're working on
02:33Trump time, and that means that we've got to try to resolve this very fast. Now, if you're sitting
02:41on the Russian side of the table, you would think, well, actually, that gives us some advantage here,
02:45because Trump wants to get this done quickly.
02:50Keeve's saying that basically what is happening right now is that Trump is basically wetting the
02:55appetite of Vladimir Putin. Do you see some truth in that? Well, I think you've got a feel for the
03:01Ukrainians here. The last thing that they wanted was for negotiations to begin without their
03:07participation. The Americans made it very clear that this is a US-Russian track for the moment.
03:14To what extent General Kellogg, responsible for the Ukrainian side of the negotiations, will play
03:22an important role, I think that remains to be seen. I'm rather doubtful that he is actually
03:26going to be a prominent figure. So you could perhaps see that the foundations of the deal
03:34will be established by the US and Russia without either Ukraine or the Europeans involved.
03:40It seems the Americans have this idea that there's got to be some sort of peacekeeping force,
03:45and the Europeans need to be responsible for that. There's obviously a big gap here between
03:50the Russians and the Americans on this particular point. But we are a long, long way
03:54from a peace deal. My view is that it may be possible to achieve a ceasefire, and Trump might
04:02very well sell that as an end to the war. But the ceasefire option, I think, is quite a sinister
04:07one for Ukraine, because the Russians would almost certainly use it to put pressure on
04:13Kiev to hold elections. Parliamentary and presidential elections are overdue,
04:18and they've not taken place because martial law is in place in Ukraine.
04:23And if the Americans were to say to the Ukrainians, you need to lift martial law now,
04:27hold elections, internally in Ukraine, that could create a lot of problems, both politically,
04:34one wonders whether the army would hold together, this would be a very different environment. And I
04:42suspect the Russians see an opportunity there to pursue their military goals by diplomatic means.
04:48John, many observers, you may be among them, you can tell me in your own words, obviously,
04:55may be looking at this and thinking that Vladimir Putin is actually wringing his hands,
04:59rubbing his hands together, expecting to get everything that he wants out of this.
05:03And I'm wondering what you think about the role, potentially, of Steve Whitkoff,
05:09who's obviously Trump's trusted man, I suppose is the best way to put it. Someone who Trump
05:16sees as someone in his own image who maybe can hammer out a deal in some way, shape or form.
05:20Do you think Whitkoff will be a positive influence as far as Ukraine's concerned?
05:27Well, I think that remains to be seen. We don't know very much about his view of Russia or Ukraine
05:32for that matter. My impression is that President Trump is actually indifferent to Ukraine's
05:39suffering. I'm not sure that he has much time for President Zelensky either, because Zelensky was not,
05:45as Trump saw it, very helpful when Trump was trying to find out more about Hunter Biden's
05:51activities in Ukraine.
05:52It was the first time Trump was impeached, wasn't it?
05:55The first time Trump was impeached, yeah.
05:57Yeah. And I think there might be some bad blood there. But I think Zelensky has tried to play
06:01his cards well. He's delivered his messages. He's done everything possible. But this is now
06:07over the heads of the Ukrainians. Whitkoff was obviously important in delivering that Middle
06:12Eastern deal. He's a real estate lawyer and he's got a tough reputation in that area. As far as I
06:19understand, he's known President Trump for a long time, is therefore a trusted ally. Maybe the
06:24unorthodox approach can bear fruit, but you can see what they're up against in the form of two
06:32highly experienced diplomats at the moment on the Russian side. Sergey Lavrov, the longstanding
06:37foreign minister, Yuri Ushakov, the former ambassador to Washington. Now, the negotiating
06:44teams have to be still confirmed. But I would have thought that on the Russian side, we're
06:50going to see the heavyweights involved.
06:52John Luff, senior research fellow at the New Eurasian Strategy Centre. Thank you for joining
06:56us and sharing your analysis with us of the situation. Of course, we'll watch for all
07:00developments and hopefully we'll speak again for more clarification further down the line.
07:04John Luff from the New Eurasian Strategy Centre. Thank you very much indeed, sir.