Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Monday warned his country must reduce its reliance on the United States and would turn towards its "reliable" European allies instead on his first trip abroad. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. He says that for the first time since WWII Canada and Europe are planning for defense 'without assuming the US is at the center of it'.
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NewsTranscript
00:00This is Apropos. It's his first official foreign trip since being sworn in last Friday. Mark
00:08Carney's decision to visit Paris instead of Washington, as is usual for Canadian leaders,
00:14comes after Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with both Ottawa and Brussels and floated
00:20threats of annexing Canada. The former central banker later travelled to London to meet Canada's
00:25head of state, King Charles, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. James Vezina has more.
00:32Sworn in on Friday, Mark Carney has already crossed the Atlantic, a heavy indication of
00:37the urgency for Canada's new government to have the country's long-term allies stand alongside it.
00:44That was confirmed when he said that the alliance between Canada and France
00:47is more important than ever. With you, Mr President, I want to ensure that France and
00:53the whole of Europe works enthusiastically with Canada, the most European of non-European countries,
01:04determined like you to maintain the most positive possible relations with the United States.
01:11Canada is a reliable, trustworthy, and strong partner of France, which shares our values
01:19and lives them through action during this age of economic and geopolitical crises.
01:27Threats that have turned to reality for Canada after Donald Trump imposed tariffs at the start
01:31of March. Aluminium and steel entering the United States are subject to a 25% tariff,
01:37and he's threatened to widen them to all Canadian products at the beginning of next month.
01:42As the rift with the United States grows, Canada and France have committed to developing a new
01:45security and intelligence partnership. Carni's government is currently reconsidering the purchase
01:51of US-made fighter jets in light of the trade war. Canada and France are powers for peace,
01:57reliable allies who will take part in this effort together. It is in this spirit that
02:01we will maintain our support for Ukraine and continue to demand clear commitments from Russia.
02:06With Donald Trump repeatedly making comments about Canada becoming the United States' 51st state,
02:12it's the country's sovereignty that's also central to many Canadians' concerns.
02:18Carni said that the comments were disrespectful and need to stop.
02:25For more, we're joined now by Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics
02:30at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. Thanks so much for being with us this
02:35evening, Scott. So, Mark Carni's first overseas mission as it were, what exactly prompted this
02:42trip? Is it simply because of the Trump factor, as one observer put it?
02:48Well, I certainly think the Trump factor is part of this, but part of this is
02:52where Canada is vis-a-vis the United States versus Europe right now. And it is an important symbol
03:00that Mark Carni's first trip was not to Washington to see Donald Trump, but it was
03:05to see Keir Starmer in the UK and Emmanuel Macron in France. We have the immediate issue
03:11that Donald Trump does not see Canada as ally. He sees Canada as a territory to be bullied,
03:20at the very least. And of course, if you take his statements at face value,
03:24Trump wants to take over Canada. Now, that's a great offense to Canadian nationalism. It's an
03:29offense to Canadian sovereignty, but it makes Canada rethink where its political and economic
03:34position is. And if the United States is not going to be your ally, who will be? And that's
03:41why you have this reach out to the UK, to France, and more broadly to the European Union.
03:46And I think one thing I found striking this week is that if you ask Canadians who they favor,
03:5368% have a favorable view of the EU versus 34% of the United States. That's a stunning shift.
03:59And by the way, almost half of Canadians now actually favor joining the European Union,
04:04even though I don't think that's on the cards in the near future.
04:08Canada also, Scott, it's reviewing the purchase of American-made F-35 fighter jets in light of
04:14Trump's trade war. Carni's suggesting a little earlier that alternative aircraft could be built
04:20in Canada or perhaps in Europe. Is that likely, do you think, at this stage?
04:25Well, I think the immediate alternative for Canada is that when they considered where to
04:30buy the fighter jets, the F-35 came out first, but Sweden's Saab Gripen came out second. And
04:35that's an immediate option. They can go to the Swedes and get those jets while they consider
04:40trying to build up a domestic capability. But remember, you also have other alternatives,
04:44such as the Eurofighter. And indeed, this is not just Canada. Portugal has said,
04:50the Portuguese defense minister has said that Portugal is considering pulling out of contracts
04:55to buy the F-35, that it's looking at alternatives. There are indications that Germany may consider
05:01that as well. Again, I come back to a fundamental. For the first time in 84 years, since 1941,
05:08you have a US government which is not allied with Europe. It is not allied with Canada.
05:12And in that circumstance, Canada, Europe, and other countries look at each other and say,
05:18how do we build up these capabilities without necessarily going through Washington?
05:22Yeah, because the French president also has been ramping up efforts to persuade
05:27allies to move away from purchasing those American military hardware. But Scott,
05:32the top five firms globally, they're all American. After that, it's kind of mostly
05:36followed by Chinese firms. In and around 27 of the top 100 are based in Europe. So
05:44can these alternative suppliers, can they actually ramp up production? And how long might that take?
05:52This is a long term project. Certainly, there will be an effort to increase production capacity,
05:57but you're right, there are limits on that. But you're talking about developing the ability
06:03in the longer term to have a much greater capacity. I think what we are seeing is the
06:08potential for the greatest realignment of relationships around the world, including
06:15with the United States, since 1945. And what you're seeing, I think, is Canada, the European
06:21Union, including France and other countries, finally taking a look five, 10, 15 years down
06:27the road and saying, we have to make these plans. We cannot, as we have done in the past,
06:33make the assumption of a US led NATO, a US led transatlantic relationship. So what you're seeing
06:40is certainly not something that will fill the gap that the US has provided in security for more than
06:4580 years. But it is a start. And it's an indication that this may finally be a world, which is one in
06:52which the United States is not necessarily at the centre of where France, Canada or other countries
06:57go next. And that clearly the message that Mark Carney is trying to send. He's no stranger,
07:02of course, to London. Is it a difficult balancing act, do you believe, for the likes of France and
07:08the UK to show their solidarity with the new Canadian prime minister without, you know,
07:15irritating too much the White House? I think we're beyond balancing acts. I mean,
07:21think about Mark Carney. Not only is he prime minister of Canada, but he was governor of the
07:25Bank of England when you had the other major shock of recent years, which is the UK leaving
07:31the European Union. Now, in the aftermath of the UK leaving the European Union, EU countries have
07:37had to reconsider their relationships. And now I think you have to be at a point where your first
07:43thought is not what is Donald Trump's ego, not will Donald Trump humiliate you in public, you
07:49have to think about your national interests first. Because if you simply think of Trump first, you put
07:55yourself on the defensive. You don't plan, you react. And I think Mark Carney, Emmanuel Macron,
08:02Keir Starmer and other leaders are saying, we cannot just react now, we have to act, we have to
08:07plan. Not remember only for the sake of our countries, but remember for the sake of Ukraine,
08:12as it faces a Russian invasion, an invasion in which Donald Trump may have more sympathy with
08:17Vladimir Putin than with Ukraine's fight to survive. They have to act, they have to plan,
08:22as you say, Scott, but what do you think, in terms of concrete proposals,
08:27is going to actually come out of those meetings today, firstly in Paris, and then later on in
08:31London? Well, I think you have a wider context here, first of all, which is that which came out
08:37last week, in the aftermath of the humiliation, the attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky,
08:45the Ukrainian president by the White House, Ursula von der Leyen, saying, you know, our goal
08:52as the European Union is 800,000 euros, sorry, 800 billion euros in investment in our defense
09:00industry and defense production. You have Canada, which is saying we have to ramp up
09:06with billions of Canadian dollars into our own security establishment. Now, it is not just a
09:12question of spending money on that. You also have to develop the logistics chains, you have
09:19to coordinate between various defense firms, you have to coordinate production cycles.
09:23But I think, again, I have to emphasize for the first time, really, that I can remember,
09:28you have Canadian and European countries saying, we're going to plan for this defense
09:33without assuming that the United States is at the center of this. And this will take place,
09:37by the way, not only at terms of the national level, it will also take place within NATO as
09:42well, which means we may have a far different NATO than the one that we've been accustomed to
09:46in recent years. And these meetings, of course, happening, we've been talking about it here this
09:51evening before this scheduled call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, really Europe being
09:56forced to take a backseat in all of this, isn't it, despite these meetings and these continual
10:01shows of solidarity between various EU leaders and now with the new Canadian prime minister?
10:08Well, I think it's a contest. And I think it's revealing what actually happened
10:12in the just over two weeks after that attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky.
10:18That was on a Friday. On the Monday, the European Union, including Ursula von der Leyen's statement,
10:24was to step up and say, all right, we're not going to sit by and let this happen.
10:29First, we're going to increase defense production. Secondly, we're going to look at our own security
10:34guarantees for Ukraine, something which has been led by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer.
10:39And third, we're going to develop an alternative negotiating path to the US-Russia direct talks.
10:45Now, here we are just over two weeks later, and we have had that commitment to increase defense
10:50production. More importantly, we've had discussion of security guarantees, which are proceeding
10:56with talks on Thursday amongst military leaders. And we have had this Ukraine-US ceasefire plan,
11:02which was brokered by the Europeans. In other words, what we saw was that Europe stepping up
11:08actually put Vladimir Putin on the defensive. And the reason why he is finally granting that
11:13call to Donald Trump, something he has dangled before Trump for weeks, is so the Kremlin can
11:19try to regain the initiative by spinning Trump, by flipping him to try to undermine the ceasefire
11:25proposal. That again means that Europe again will have to respond if Trump does follow Putin's lead
11:31and reach out to those Americans within the Trump administration
11:35who still think Ukraine's security is something worth defending.
11:39Scott, as ever, thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening. For all your
11:43analysis there, that's Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics at the Clinton
11:49Institute at UCD Dublin. Well, that's it from us for now. Just stay with us,
11:53we'll be back shortly with more world news.