Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Monday warned his country must reduce its reliance on the United States and would turn towards its "reliable" European allies instead on his first trip abroad. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. He says that for the first time since World War II, Canada and Europe are planning for defence "without assuming the US is at the centre of it".
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00:00This is Apropos. It's his first official foreign trip since being sworn in last Friday. Mark
00:08Carney's decision to visit Paris instead of Washington, as is usual for Canadian leaders,
00:14comes after Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with both Ottawa and Brussels and floated
00:20threats of annexing Canada. The former central banker later travelled to London to meet Canada's
00:25head of state, King Charles, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. James Vazina has more.
00:32Sworn in on Friday, Mark Carney has already crossed the Atlantic, a heavy indication of
00:37the urgency for Canada's new government to have the country's long-term allies stand alongside it.
00:44That was confirmed when he said that the alliance between Canada and France
00:47is more important than ever.
00:49With you, Mr. President, I want to ensure that France and the whole of Europe works enthusiastically
00:57with Canada, the most European of non-European countries, determined like you to maintain the
01:06most positive possible relations with the United States. Canada is a reliable, trustworthy,
01:14and strong partner of France, which shares our values and lives them through action
01:21during this age of economic and geopolitical crises.
01:27Threats that have turned to reality for Canada after Donald Trump imposed tariffs at the start
01:31of March. Aluminium and steel entering the United States are subject to a 25% tariff,
01:37and he's threatened to widen them to all Canadian products at the beginning of next month.
01:41As the rift with the United States grows,
01:43Canada and France have committed to developing a new security and intelligence partnership.
01:48Carney's government is currently reconsidering the purchase of US-made fighter jets in light
01:53of the trade war. Canada and France are powers for peace, reliable allies who will take part
01:58in this effort together. It is in this spirit that we will maintain our support for Ukraine
02:02and continue to demand clear commitments from Russia. With Donald Trump repeatedly making
02:08comments about Canada becoming the United States' 51st state, it's the country's sovereignty that's
02:14also central to many Canadians' concerns. Carney said that the comments were disrespectful
02:20and need to stop. For more, we're joined now by Scott Lucas, Professor of US and
02:28International Politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. Thanks so much for
02:34being with us this evening, Scott. So, Mark Carney's first overseas mission as it were,
02:40what exactly prompted this trip? Is it simply because of the Trump factor, as one observer put it?
02:48Well, I certainly think the Trump factor is part of this, but part of this is
02:52where Canada is vis-a-vis the United States versus Europe right now. And it is an important symbol
03:00that Mark Carney's first trip was not to Washington to see Donald Trump, but it was
03:05to see Keir Starmer in the UK and Emmanuel Macron in France. We have the immediate issue
03:11that Donald Trump does not see Canada as an ally. He sees Canada as a territory to be bullied,
03:19at the very least. And of course, if you take his statements at face value,
03:24Trump wants to take over Canada. Now, that's a great offense to Canadian nationalism. It's an
03:29offense to Canadian sovereignty, but it makes Canada rethink where its political and economic
03:34position is. And if the United States is not going to be your ally, who will be? And that's why you
03:41have this reach out to the UK, to France, and more broadly, to the European Union.
03:46And I think one thing I found striking this week is that if you ask Canadians who they favor,
03:5368% have a favorable view of the EU versus 34% of the United States. That's a stunning shift.
03:59And by the way, almost half of Canadians now actually favor joining the European Union,
04:04even though I don't think that's on the cards in the near future.
04:08Canada also, Scott, it's reviewing the purchase of American-made F-35 fighter jets in light of
04:14Trump's trade war. Carney's suggesting a little earlier that alternative aircraft could be built
04:20in Canada or perhaps in Europe. Is that likely, do you think, at this stage?
04:25Well, I think the immediate alternative for Canada is that when they considered where to
04:30buy the fighter jets, the F-35 came out first, but Sweden's Saab Gripen came out second. And
04:35that's an immediate option. They can go to the Swedes and get those jets while they consider
04:40trying to build up a domestic capability. But remember, you also have other alternatives,
04:44such as the Eurofighter. And indeed, this is not just Canada. Portugal has said,
04:50the Portuguese defense minister has said that Portugal is considering pulling out of contracts
04:55to buy the F-35, that it's looking at alternatives. There are indications that Germany may consider
05:01that as well. Again, I come back to a fundamental. For the first time in 84 years, since 1941,
05:08you have a US government which is not allied with Europe. It is not allied with Canada.
05:13And in that circumstance, Canada, Europe, and other countries look at each other and say,
05:18how do we build up these capabilities without necessarily going through Washington?
05:22Yeah, because the French president also has been ramping up efforts to persuade
05:27allies to move away from purchasing those American military hardware. But Scott,
05:32the top five firms globally, they're all American. After that, it's kind of mostly
05:36followed by Chinese firms. In and around 27 of the top 100 are based in Europe. So
05:44can these alternative suppliers, can they actually ramp up production? And how long might that take?
05:52This is a long term project. Certainly, there will be an effort to increase production capacity,
05:57but you're right, there are limits on that. But you're talking about developing the ability
06:03in the longer term to have a much greater capacity. I think what we are seeing is the
06:08potential for the greatest realignment of relationships around the world, including
06:15with the United States, since 1945. And what you're seeing, I think, is Canada, the European
06:21Union, including France and other countries, finally taking a look five, 10, 15 years down
06:27the road and saying, we have to make these plans. We cannot, as we have done in the past,
06:33make the assumption of a US led NATO, a US led transatlantic relationship. So what you're seeing
06:40is certainly not something that will fill the gap that the US has provided in security for more than
06:4580 years. But it is a start. And it's an indication that this may finally be a world, which is one in
06:52which the United States is not necessarily at the centre of where France, Canada or other countries
06:57go next. And that clearly the message that Mark Carney is trying to send. He's no stranger,
07:02of course, to London. Is it a difficult balancing act, do you believe, for the likes of France and
07:08the UK to show their solidarity with the new Canadian prime minister without, you know,
07:15irritating too much the White House? I think we're beyond balancing acts. I mean,
07:21think about Mark Carney. Not only is he prime minister of Canada, but he was governor of the
07:25Bank of England when you had the other major shock of recent years, which is the UK leaving
07:31the European Union. Now, in the aftermath of the UK leaving the European Union, EU countries have
07:37had to reconsider their relationships. And now I think you have to be at a point where your first
07:43thought is not what is Donald Trump's ego, not will Donald Trump humiliate you in public, you
07:49have to think about your national interests first. Because if you simply think of Trump first, you put
07:55yourself on the defensive. You don't plan, you react. And I think Mark Carney, Emmanuel Macron,
08:02Keir Starmer and other leaders are saying, we cannot just react now. We have to act, we have to
08:07plan. Not remember only for the sake of our countries, but remember for the sake of Ukraine,
08:12as it faces a Russian invasion, an invasion in which Donald Trump may have more sympathy with
08:17Vladimir Putin than with Ukraine's fight to survive. They have to act, they have to plan,
08:22as you say, Scott, but what do you think, in terms of concrete proposals is going to actually
08:28come out of those meetings today, firstly in Paris, and then later on in London?
08:33Well, I think you have a wider context here, first of all, which is that which came out
08:37last week, in the aftermath of the humiliation, the attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky,
08:45the Ukrainian president by the White House, Ursula von der Leyen, saying, you know,
08:51our goal as the European Union is 800,000 euros, sorry, 800 billion euros in investment in our
09:00defense industry and defense production. You have Canada, which is saying we have to ramp up
09:06with billions of Canadian dollars into our own security establishment. Now, it is not just a
09:12question of spending money on that. You also have to develop the logistics chains, you have to
09:19coordinate between various defense firms, you have to coordinate production cycles. But I think,
09:24again, I have to emphasize for the first time, really, that I can remember, you have Canadian
09:29and European countries saying, we're going to plan for this defense, without assuming that the
09:34United States is at the center of this. And this will take place, by the way, not only at terms of
09:39the national level, it will also take place within NATO as well, which means we may have a
09:43far different NATO than the one that we've been accustomed to in recent years. And these meetings,
09:48of course, happening, we've been talking about it here this evening before this scheduled call
09:53between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, really Europe being forced to take a backseat in all of
09:58this, isn't it, despite these meetings and these continual shows of solidarity between various EU
10:04leaders and now with the new Canadian Prime Minister? Well, I think it's a contest. And I
10:09think it's revealing what actually happened in the just over two weeks after that
10:14humiliation, attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky. That was on a Friday. On the Monday,
10:21the European Union, including Ursula von der Leyen's statement, was to step up and say,
10:26all right, we're not going to sit by and let this happen. First, we're going to increase
10:30defence production. Secondly, we're going to look at our own security guarantees for Ukraine,
10:36something which has been led by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer. And third, we're going to
10:40develop an alternative negotiating path to the US-Russia direct talks. Now, here we are just over
10:46two weeks later, and we have had that commitment to increase defence production. More importantly,
10:52we've had discussion of security guarantees, which are proceeding with talks on Thursday
10:57amongst military leaders. And we have had this Ukraine-US ceasefire plan, which was brokered by
11:04the Europeans. In other words, what we saw was that Europe stepping up actually put Vladimir
11:09Putin on the defensive. And the reason why he is finally granting that call to Donald Trump,
11:15something he has dangled before Trump for weeks, is so the Kremlin can try to regain the initiative
11:21by spinning Trump, by flipping him to try to undermine the ceasefire proposal.
11:26That, again, means that Europe, again, will have to respond if Trump does follow Putin's lead and
11:31reach out to those Americans within the Trump administration who still think Ukraine's security
11:37is something worth defending. Scott, as ever, thanks so much for being with us on the programme
11:41this evening. For all your analysis there, that's Scott Lucas, Professor of US
11:45and International Politics at the Clinton Institute at UCD Dublin. Well, that's it
11:51from us for now. Do stay with us. We'll be back shortly with more world news.