It's Bracket Time! Who do you have winning #MarchMadness ? Betting insider, Nick Kostos, joins and has you covered! #NCAATournament
Which teams should you avoid in your picks?
Which teams should you avoid in your picks?
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00:00Hello, Nicholas, what's going on guys? Great to be back on with you. Great to have you back
00:05Normally, it's football season only but I feel like you ought to be on all the time
00:09I mean, I want I want all Nick all the time
00:11Well, you uh, you have my number you can call me anytime and I'm ready to go because I was telling my wife
00:17Normally, I have to wake up and catch up on highlights and stuff from the night before I was on last night
00:21So I did the national 7 to 9 show p.m
00:24Eastern last night on the tournament right after selection Sunday show went off the air on CBS
00:28So I'm uh, I'm ready to go guys. Let's get it
00:32Strategy wise. How do you go about betting the big dance? Well, I think you know, that's a
00:39Loaded question. I I guess you know
00:41There are there are certain styles of teams that I try to avoid and we've talked about these teams over the years on you better
00:48You bet there's and I'll just give two of them here
00:50There's the team that plays really well like way over at skis in the last month of the season and then there's the team
00:58that like
00:59Absolutely falls on its face during the last month of the season and history is kind of borne out that those teams not 100% of
01:05The time but for for the most part like those teams do not have a ton of success in the NCAA tournament
01:11So I'm gonna give you a team right now and they did not win their conference tournament
01:16So it's not like a full-on like normally you'd like to see team like when it's conference tournament go into the tournament with a ton
01:21Of momentum but Michigan State for me is a team that kind of like fits
01:25Falls under this umbrella a team that was good up until like the middle of February and then played much better than that over the
01:32last month of the season
01:34BYU it's a team like that
01:35Like I bet VCU last night it opened plus three and a half that numbers two and a half now not that BYU can't win
01:41But I think BYU is definitely the type of team that I like to fade
01:44North Carolina is on this list also, by the way now that Carolina's in the tournament
01:48I think Carolina's gonna get a lot of love in their first round game coming up against San Diego State
01:53Midweek this week. I'll be on the Aztecs. I'm looking to get a plus four there
01:57So that's just one way Greg that I like to bet the tournament a lot of different strategies can be applied Nick
02:03I think I'm gonna go Duke all the way with this one, but people are worried about Cooper flag and his ankle injury
02:07They're expected for him to play full strength on Friday
02:10Is he does that injury affecting the way in which people are gonna bet?
02:14It shouldn't I don't think he should play on Friday save him for either Mississippi State or Baylor
02:21But just to be clear here, let's say Cooper flag doesn't play this weekend
02:24Uh, I I think Duke beats the 16 seed and then either Mississippi State or Baylor
02:30I don't think Duke needs Cooper flag to get to next weekend according
02:33I've been saying it since November on my show you better you bet which people can watch on Peacock now
02:37Just want to say that again. I'm 60, which is really awesome, right?
02:41Yeah, I think Duke's winning the title Duke lost a couple games early in the season where Cooper flag at the ends of games
02:50Turned the ball over. It's like oh my god. Well, everyone said Cooper flag was gonna be so great
02:54Well, it's gonna be the number one overall pick in the draft
02:56He's like a generational prospect and that happened in November
03:00And since then they we win every game basically by 25 points and people want to say
03:05Oh, well, look at the competition they play like it's not enough for people that Duke wins every game by 20 points
03:10You have to win by 50 I guess to impress people
03:12I I can't I'm not guaranteeing that they're gonna win. I love the Chiefs in the Super Bowl
03:17They got railroaded by Philadelphia that sucked, but I'll be consistent. I've loved Duke since November
03:23Duke is my pick to win the national championship. I think let's get into the juice here. Let's keep it a buck
03:28You brought up, Michigan State. They're playing one of the local teams that we have and Brian
03:32Where do I put my money when it comes to picking the upset because that's the way you're gonna really win your money
03:39Who's the sleeper team that has the best chance of upset in one of these top seats?
03:45So I'll give you I'll give you VCU VCU is the 11th seed in the East region. That's the Duke region
03:50VCU is gonna play BYU. So BYU is a kind of like an electric offensive team
03:54They beat Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament
03:579692 at the end of last week before getting stuffed into a locker by Houston like many teams do but BYU had this amazing run
04:03to the end of the regular season and
04:06And I think they're kind of gonna fall on their faces here now VCU
04:10Won the Atlantic 10 people will say all the Atlantic 10 not really that great of a conference
04:14VCU is a buzzsaw in that conference all season the betting market the initial move wiki has been towards the 11 seed VCU
04:21I agree with that. So again last night it opened. I took the points with VCU. That's now moved down to two and a half
04:27I I think VCU is gonna win the game gonna win the game outright
04:32I'll actually give you how about this one?
04:34This is not a good one because that's only plus 120 that doesn't get me nothing. Okay?
04:40Yeah, I need something that I can go in the strip club and really make it rain
04:45What kind of strip club are you going to let's let's say Magic City one everybody knows because I used to but I lived in
04:51You know, okay
04:54When I lived in South Florida, all right, everything was a lot cheaper there
04:57So you can make it rain with like no money basically. Oh, you're right. Well ko DS that in South Florida. How's that?
05:01Oh, man, I I actually got a shoulder rubs on the second floor of Tootsie's that actually happened
05:10Mrs. Costas doesn't this is this is this is free. Mrs. Costas. Okay, hit me Drake to that's a name-drive
05:17Train was Drake was not there for the record
05:22You know what there's so many jokes, how about this one let's go for 13 in the South region, Texas A&M against Yale
05:30Yale last year beat Auburn in the first rounds of the tournament and
05:34A&M is a good team. The problem with A&M is that it can't score it can go on these long scoring droughts
05:39So I'm definitely taking the points with Yale. I would not be surprised if Yale pulled the outright upset
05:44I actually I want to give you two really trendy
05:48Oh at least two five twelve matchups that I think are really interesting where I like the the favorite one the underdog in another
05:55So we go to the South region. This is the Auburn region
05:59Michigan is the five playing the 12 UC San Diego now UC San Diego is like the like the betters darling
06:05So when this matchup came up last night, everyone loves the Tritons. That's their nickname. Apparently, whatever
06:11Everyone loves UC San Diego. I'm on the other side of this here. I like Michigan a lot
06:16I think if you like Michigan
06:18you can wait and
06:19you'll be able to get a better price with Michigan if you want to bet Michigan in the first round and then if we go
06:24Down to the West region in the 512 matchup there now Memphis is going to be without one of its better players here
06:31It's point guard Colorado State is the 12 seed and Colorado State's favorite in the game
06:35So this is a 12 favorite over a 5 Colorado State about a three-point favorite in this game
06:40Colorado State closed the year with 10 straight wins in the Mountain West and won the Mountain West tournament
06:45Memphis is not great as a big favorite, but in small spread games has been nails all season
06:51I'm gonna be betting Memphis coming up later this week Memphis plus the points in the 512 matchup in the West region
06:58Wiggy's working a 32 leg parlay currently
07:07Nick when it comes to women, do you see South Carolina being able to a great start to the question?
07:15Do you think that South Carolina can repeat
07:19If I had to bet the women's tournament I would bet UConn
07:24See what the odds are here
07:25I think Paige Becker's is kind of showing herself to be the best player in the country this season
07:29I don't know juju Watkins for USC. So USC is plus 550
07:34UCLA plus 500 so UConn is plus 275 the second choice on the board
07:39And UConn has been great down the stretch of the season
07:42I would actually and I'm not trying to paint myself as a women's college basketball expert
07:47I am NOT but from the little that I do know UConn would be my choice this year
07:51They got to the final four last year
07:53We remember how that game ended right in the national semifinal
07:56against against Iowa where the referees kind of boned them at the end of the game with a
08:00Terrible call coming out of an inbound with UConn potentially winning the game. I would say that UConn Gino and Paige Becker's
08:07Get it this year UConn plus 275 would be my women's. Yeah that moving screen that one
08:13Did nothing terrible call so so Nick when you just look at the NCAA I think people try to figure out their brackets
08:22how
08:23Does it usually go to the one and two seeds that end up kind of like, you know?
08:28What they say going chalk when it comes to college basketball
08:33Especially this year. So I think you know, generally we will see the ones and twos do well
08:37But you know, it's only happened once in the history of the NCAA tournament
08:42We're all for one seats have made the final four and that was back in 2008
08:46Now wiki, I I've been saying all year that I think this is gonna be a chalky NCAA tournament
08:51So I like I I'm pretty sure
08:54I'm gonna have Auburn in the final four out of the South Auburn's the number one overall seed in the tournament
08:59It is worth noting Auburn lost three of its final four games coming into the tournament
09:04But based on just an unbelievable body of work prior to that Auburn was the number one overall seed
09:09I just I don't love most of the teams in that region besides for Auburn, Michigan State's the two
09:14I'm down on Sparty right now. So I'm gonna have Auburn. I will almost certainly have Florida
09:19Which is the one seed in the West region. I think Duke's gonna win the whole thing
09:23So I'll have Duke in the east. So I've got three ones right now. And yes, I understand that's chalky
09:27I have also been saying for months now that I think this is going to be a top-heavy NCAA tournament now the problem
09:34Comes in the Midwest region, right?
09:35Which is the Houston region Houston is the number one seed there
09:39Houston has been one of the three best teams in the country all season
09:43Houston's awesome
09:43And I think we know right because we all we watch the tournament every year the problem with Houston has been
09:49They get into the tournament every year and they have one of these games where they can't hit water if they fall out of a
09:54Boat and they lose, you know 60 to 45 it happens every year and it has people scared off of Houston
10:00The difference with Houston this year is that they're a really good three-point shooting team
10:04And I kind of felt that was gonna be what got Houston over the hump this year
10:08But kind of like the old story with Houston now, one of its best players is injured in the tournament
10:13They're big man. Juwan Roberts, which is going to create a really interesting potential second round matchup again
10:19This is the Midwest region. The 8-9 there is Gonzaga against, Georgia
10:24Gonzaga is one of the most missed seeded teams in NCAA tournament history now
10:28I'm not gonna get like real nerd analytics with people here
10:31But Ken Pomeroy is a guy that created website Ken Palm if you hear people say it
10:34It basically judges teams based on like a big statistical profile
10:38It doesn't have to be right but people swear by it
10:41Gonzaga is the ninth ranked team in Ken Palm this season now lost a bunch of games in big spots to good teams
10:46Lost twice on the regular season to st. Mary's did beat st
10:50Mary's in the West Coast Conference championship game the Zags are an eight seed so Gonzaga's way better than an eight
10:57So if we get Houston and Gonzaga in the second round
11:00Gonzaga's a six and a half point favorite against Georgia a good SEC team
11:04so the Zags are our favorites come out of that matchup Gonzaga against Houston would be an absolute banger and just
11:10To show people what I mean by that if you look at the odds to win that region
11:15Gonzaga is the third choice on the board
11:17Houston's first Tennessee the two-seeded second
11:20So if Houston is able to get past Gonzaga, which is not going to be a lock
11:24Houston's gonna be without its best big man in that game that I think we're staring down the barrel of Houston, Tennessee
11:30And the elite a but if you like Gonzaga in that game
11:33I think that that is the region the Midwest region where things could get really funky. Okay, Nick
11:38Well, according to the NCAA website, there has never been a perfect bracket. Really never Wow
11:45So that's why Warren Buffett says you'll give like a billion dollars to whoever gets a perfect bracket
11:50Never been a verifiable one. I think the farthest anybody ever got was 49
11:56consecutive games
12:00And that's why you wager it yes anything can happen well, it's you know, it looks like a top-heavy tourney this year
12:07All right, Nick. It's great to talk to you. I miss you when it's not football season
12:12So Greg you guys have you call me anytime man? I know I
12:16Don't want to push it. I mean, I know you're busy. You got shows on a television radio
12:23Courtney can use can you say that one more time? Yeah, he's a TV star. So it's factually factually correct. Yeah
12:31Streaming is the way to go to I'm damn. Damn. We can't even get on peacock
12:39I will I will not
12:41Very I'm very worried about myself
12:44Time for anybody else, please. You're honest. Thank you, Nick
12:48Yeah, wishing everybody minimal sweats when he bets the absolute very best of luck. Peace
12:52All right host of you better you bet odyssey sports betting insider Nick Kostos