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00:00Live right here on this Thursday morning on the early line on sports grid
00:04We round out our opening hour with a focus here in the month of March on
00:08College basketball DRS final few games for every team at the high major
00:14Level around d1 college hoops in this regular season before we get to the conference tournament week in full
00:21Next week and of course the NCAA tournament on the horizon
00:25We are just 10 days away from selection Sunday where the NCAA tournament field of 68 will be
00:33Unveiled so now we look at those national championship prices
00:37Auburn had a small edge on Duke the last few weeks a couple of cents 20 30 cents here and there now DRS
00:45co-favorites to win that national championship at plus
00:493
00:5040 but Florida proving its might each and every night plus
00:54750 now in front of Houston the Cougs had that third-best number earlier this week at plus
01:00850 and then you get a little bit of a drop-off
01:03Nearly doubling the price of the Cougs to get the Tennessee and Alabama both at a 15 to 1 number
01:11But the story remains the same for the six best prices hail from the same league. That is the SEC
01:17And they should that's the way it's supposed to be because if you do look at the two best teams just based on dominance this
01:22Season Auburn plays in a much harder competition conference than the ACC, but you can't fault Duke doesn't win every game by two points
01:29They win every game by 22 points or more at that point. That's why the respect is there both lineups. Absolutely fantastic
01:34We do have to give credit to the SEC
01:36Florida you saw go on the road with a big win against Alabama
01:39But you can't really knock Alabama because why they got beat by Florida who's a really good basketball program in itself the outliers
01:45If you will write
01:46Houston and st. John's that you see popping up here
01:49How much respect do we give it to Michigan State out of the Big Ten who is a real quality program?
01:53But you know what?
01:53I do like I've already identified the two teams that I think I'm probably betting and I don't usually bet them until after the conference
02:00Tournaments because as we know it's hey, what's your schedule? Well, we don't know it. Oh, I like that team
02:05You see the schedule like they didn't do him any favors
02:07so when they see the bracket come out you are gonna get like in soccer the group of death like
02:12The Duke wind up in this we have to beat three top ten teams just before they even get to the final four
02:17I still like Texas Tech who by the way
02:1916 of 33 from three-point range last night. It's one of the teams to keep an eye on but also look at Iowa State
02:24I told you that a couple days before they took that bit. I can't say a bad loss to BYU
02:28But it's a loss to a quality opponent. They probably shouldn't have had they were 20 to 1 now look 25 to 1
02:34So for me, hey, Texas Tech and Iowa State you want to bow out quickly in the conference tournament?
02:38Go ahead and do it because that'll mean I'll probably get an even better price on top of it
02:42But I'm having fun looking at all these teams and it's saying all right, Auburn and Duke number one and number two
02:46But legitimate threats after that no doubt about it
02:49So DRS I crunched the numbers earlier maybe about a month ago month and a half ago
02:54Whatever it was and laid down a bunch of wagers
02:56I've had some bets on various college basketball teams dating back to early November when the season started but for teams
03:03I absolutely bet on based on these historic trends from Ken Palm in the week 6
03:09AP top 25 in the last 20 years all
03:1320 national championship winners of the NCAA men's tournament have been ranked in the top 12 of the week 6 AP poll
03:2219 of 20 have ranked in the top 25 of the adjusted offensive efficiency metric on Ken Palm
03:2916 of 20 have ranked in the top 25 of adjusted defensive efficiency
03:34Four teams fit that criteria as of right now
03:39That would be the favorites in Auburn and Duke and then Florida in Iowa State
03:45Iowa State's number improving over the last week despite the home double OT lost to BYU. We're talking you're right
03:52They're not supposed to lose at home though inside Hilton Coliseum as a nine and a half point favorite
03:57But the Cougars are streaking right now. They've won seven straight. They have covered in seven straight
04:03But Iowa State's number getting better despite that loss. It should show you what you need
04:08so now is the time to start getting those wagers in or
04:12You wait until selection Sunday and you see how the bracket lays out because every coach in college basketball
04:19We'll tell you seed line is great. If we're two, that's great. If we're three, that's great
04:24If we're a four seed, that's great
04:26What matters most to us is our matchups throughout the madness because that can dictate your success
04:32Exactly and that's the battle here. That's reason is why you want to be the top overall seed theoretically, right?
04:37It's supposed to give you the easiest path
04:39but every single year when we take a look at March madness and we get selection Sunday and yet like that sort of like
04:45Five to ten hours breathe it. It's okay
04:47Let me get that second look at the bracket like how the heck did Florida end up in the same spots is like Alabama's like
04:54That shouldn't happen. They miss seed all the time. And that's why the arguments are fantastic. Once you see him play out in real time
05:01Interesting move yesterday, by the way, Jay Lucas top Duke assistant going to become the next head coach of Miami
05:08That was largely speculated
05:10But he is going to leave the Blue Devils at the end of the regular season to get an early start in Coral Gables
05:17Interesting develop live right here on this Thursday on the early line marks
05:21You know becomes the mouth in the South because we start with SEC
05:25Basketball in the final week at the high major level in men's college hoops during conference tournament week
05:31Fully picking up on this Thursday as well
05:35So now let's look back on a Wednesday night huge top 10 till in T town in Tuscaloosa
05:40Between seventh ranked Alabama and number five, Florida and as the Gators have proven time and again this year
05:47There'll be a slight underdog on the road and win outright high scoring a game high scoring game in Coleman
05:55Coliseum
05:569994 the victory for you F outright as a three and a half point underdog
06:02What did the performance last night marks, you know with all of the stakes to potential teams out of the SEC?
06:09Hunting down a one seed in the NCAA tournament show you about both programs here in the month of March
06:15Well, Florida's a final 14. They're a national championship contender at this point. They are so good on both ends of the floor
06:22They have the shooting in the defense to be able to do this thing. I don't even know that the draw necessarily matters
06:28I mean
06:28there's an argument to say you can match up Florida against anybody in the country and
06:32And they are going to be more than competitive and be able to win the game and have a chance to win the game late
06:36So that's a team right now that should scare the ever-living
06:40You know wanted of everybody because that's how competent and good they are on both ends for Alabama
06:46Look, we know what they are and we know what they're not
06:49And a lot of it is game script and if you look at the flow of what happened last night
06:54That was a game of back-and-forth runs
06:56I mean if you go, you know, Florida led 15-8 then Alabama was up 1915 then Florida was up 27 23
07:02You know we get past halftime
07:04We have we have Alabama of 52 47 and then all of a sudden Florida took a lead and never looked back
07:11When it was all said and done, so that's the way Alabama plays. That's just the kind of style of game
07:16They're gonna get into and they're gonna do everything they can to outscore you at the end of it and outlast you and out shoot
07:21You as long as Florida, I'm sorry rather as long as Alabama continues to make threes at a rate
07:26That is unsustainable for most teams to keep up. They're gonna be at a good situation
07:30But when they play a legitimate defense, they're gonna have some problems here and for an Alabama playing catch-up is not a good script
07:38Alabama has to get themselves out in front and force you to chase them
07:41That's when they're most effective not when they're trying to play catch-up against a better defense
07:46Those two teams last night certainly gonna be in March Madness
07:49But before we get to March Madness, we get to Arch Madness, which gets underway the Missouri Valley Conference the WCC
07:56Any looks from Arch Madness, which gets underway at 1 o'clock Eastern this afternoon today Drake plus 115 price Bradley plus 330
08:05How about the little conferences show some respect to your mark who you got? I
08:09Mean, I would I would go Bradley. Yeah, I think they're one of the more complete teams
08:13Within the Missouri Valley, you know
08:16I just kind of I look at them at both ends of the floor and I feel like that's a team that has the shooting
08:21Necessary to win the tournament and that's really what it boils down to for me
08:25You talk about Bradley's three-point shooting second best in the conference
08:28that's always really what's kind of gonna highlight my
08:30Sort of angle when I look at this thing and their top four in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency in the conference
08:37What was the other conference we were talking about? I'm sorry
08:44I
08:45mean WCC the guy I
08:48Want to I I really really want to take San Francisco
08:53The problem is that they're gonna have to play Gonzaga
08:55It can't be Gonzaga like I would give San Francisco a better chance to beat st
09:00Mary's then I would Gonzaga but the way the bracket sets up with Gonzaga being the two and San Fran being the three
09:06They're gonna have to see each other and for whatever. Have you seen the numbers?
09:10Gonzaga is
09:1252 and 4 against San Francisco all-time
09:1652 and 4 like
09:19That's beyond one-sided at this point. So I would love to be able to take San Francisco
09:24But this is not the same Gonzaga team. I don't feel like this is the same Gonzaga team. We've seen from years ago
09:30They wouldn't get my money. It would be st. Mary's I
09:33Would bet on st
09:35Mary's as well both DRS and I said that as we look at the prices plus
09:39150 for a Zags team not the one seed, but the minus money favorite they do play, San Francisco
09:45Santa Clara is the four seed a potential bid stealer out there to take on st
09:51Mary's and the gales in the WCC
09:55Tournament when you look at Bradley best three-point shooting team in the country nearly
09:5941 percent forty point nine from three in highly effective are the Braves
10:0557.2 percent sixth most effective field goal percentage around
10:10College basketball that will get interesting if Drake does not win arch madness are the Bulldogs from an at-large perspective
10:18Deserving of a nod I would say so unless the committee
10:22Continuously wants to show that mid-major teams just can't snuff it against the high major, which I disagree with
10:29wholeheartedly because Drake the only team in the country
10:34undefeated in quad one and quad two games sure only five
10:38But they are perfect at five and oh, you know, we're bouncing all around here in this segment
10:43So let's talk national championship odds and before we talk about teams to highlight. I want your thought process
10:50We're here early in March. We're about to be at the end of the regular season of the high major level conference tournaments next week
10:56Is this your time to put in a wager or have we waited too long that the value is no longer there?
11:02And thus you want to see how the actual bracket lays out in just about 10 days on selection Sunday
11:09No, I don't think it's too late again. If you're holding a Duke ticket anything three to one or better
11:13I don't think you're in a bad shape at all
11:14I mean, I want that ticket in my hand at this point in time now again
11:18I've said repeatedly we don't know what Duke is against other competition because of the ACC's had a down year
11:23But I'm not upset at that ticket certainly not upset about a Florida ticket, you know
11:26I look at a team again
11:28I've talked about my concerns about st. John the Michigan State the other bet that I really like that's not national championship
11:34I like Maryland to make the final four. I think Merrill when you get
11:38Out the draw because the draw to win the whole thing matters, but to get to the final four
11:44I don't see Maryland losing prior to
11:47The sweet 16 and I think that they are going to be in an elite eight game right there
11:51And that's really when it matters when I talk about Maryland a team to win the whole thing
11:55It's the elite eight matchup the first final four game and the national championship where it's three
12:00Elite teams in a row that would give me pause for a team like Maryland
12:04But for them to win four games to get to a final four
12:06I think is a high probability number and given that they're not even 20 to 1 to win the title
12:10You're gonna get a juicy number on them getting to the final four themselves
12:14Yes, you certainly are the Terps have some great metrics
12:17They look the part of a team that can make a deep run in the big dance
12:20Do they have the coaching advantages necessary led by Kevin Willard to do just that a little bit more around college
12:28Basketball with Mark Zinno to end out this second hour up next live right here on the early line on sports
12:35Live right here on the early line on sports grid rounding out our second hour with the one the only the non jacket-wearing
12:43Mark Zinno
12:46Thursday as we get everybody ready
12:48In the conference tournament week. You are certainly that my friend
12:52We've got seven weekdays that remain on the men's side in conference tournament weeks
12:58If you will in college hoops as we've alluded to starting today in Arch Madness MVC
13:04Tournament, we've got afternoon basketball in six of the seven games starting at latest 1 p.m
13:11Eastern Time and often 11 a.m. 11 30 a.m. Noon Eastern Time over these next six days
13:19Let's go back to the national championship prices
13:22So, you know you talked about a couple of value spots that you like and of course the metrics necessary
13:27To make a deep run in the madness. That is March
13:31How do you look at the favorites at the top Auburn and Duke co-favorites now at a plus?
13:363
13:3740 price
13:39They know if I were to give you a final four bet on either the Tigers or the Blue Devils
13:44Making the final four one of those two teams taking one of the four spots in San Antonio
13:50Would you think that the yes was juiced? Would you bet on either?
13:56Auburn and or Duke get into the final four
14:00Yes, I would take the yes, I mean look you got the two best players in the country and
14:05In broom and flag for Auburn and Duke respectively
14:09On the floor and those the guys are really that are gonna have to
14:12Kind of be those critical guys to get them through some tough spots going forward
14:16But again, you know
14:17I think when you look at it those two teams
14:19Are on a collision course to meet each other at some point in time in the final four or in the national championship game
14:27You talk about the metrics, right?
14:29I mean both of them that you're talking about teams that are
14:31Duke is top five in both offensive and defensive rating Auburn's the number one offense in the country and
14:36Defensive rating is 14th and Ken Palm so they fit those metrics of being top 20 offensive top 20 defense
14:43top 20 defensively when it comes to the metrics, but
14:46Again, if you're gonna give me Duke and Auburn versus the field to win the national title in that case
14:52I'd take the field just to get to the final four, you know, obviously both of these teams
14:56I think are very capable of doing it
14:59If we do look at those graphics there and say the national champions look a lot of people are deserving to be up there price points
15:06Appropriate we'll get to that in a moment, but contender pretender for this one team for me for you
15:10St. John's you see them at 25 to 1 listed there nice story coming out of the Big East first time in a long time
15:16They won the regular season crown in the Big East. Are they a contender for you mark or a pretender?
15:21I mean
15:22did you do this to break my heart because I'm a Johnny's fan and I grew up in the Ron our test days in the
15:26Boo-harvey days and
15:28Jackson days a mother named basketball. I was a little bit young for the Mullen days
15:32So there's a little bit was more Mark Jackson that Mullen didn't play together play with more Jackson
15:38I think so, but that's the one I remember. I don't remember Mullen. I remember Mark Jackson popular in New York
15:42Why do you remember Mullen?
15:46Was a short guy I like point guards I didn't relate to big people
15:50Anyway, so here's the thing about st. John's and I said this repeatedly. I
15:55Think they're pretenders because what's gonna happen here with st
15:58John's is eventually some but they're going to meet somebody here in the in the second round with a sweet 16
16:04That's gonna come out of the gate and they're just gonna be flat-out making shots, right? Like that happens from time
16:10It doesn't matter how good a defense you play shots just fall and st. John's is gonna find himself
16:15They're gonna look up at the scoreboard by the 12-minute timeout
16:17It's gonna be a 21 to 7 game and they're gonna be like, oh my god
16:20How are we down 14 points so quick?
16:22The only way to erase that lead is one of two ways you have to play enough lockdown
16:27defense over the course of the next whatever minutes are left and hold that team from not from
16:31Scoring again for them to get back in it or you got to be able to make threes and that's something st
16:36John's can't do period and like that's a problem when you're a bad three-point shooting team
16:41It's the same problem for Michigan State if you get them out of their game script and you get them away from being able
16:46Dictate the tempo and pacing the game defensively
16:50Then they have a will have a problem playing catch-up unless their defense becomes locked down and does the work
16:56They don't have an offense. That's good enough to play catch-up because they can't shoot threes
17:00the only thing that then you could argue right is that very few teams have been able to get Michigan State and st
17:06John's out or games so far this year
17:10But that will be key right the matchups that will dictate your path
17:14Through the tournament your run through the bracket maybe as
17:17Important if not more important than how good of a basketball team you are because it is still a tournament
17:24It is a one-game scenario
17:26Well, you have to be at your best for 40 minutes to make sure that you can contend for a final four spot in a national
17:33Championship marks, you know always a good time my friend here on the early line with you on the show
17:38We thank you very much as always. I thought the sweater looked great for what it's worth
17:44Management, thanks
17:47Listen I'm here are not so great things our number three our third and final that's up next on the early for college basketball
17:55It is the month of March even in the final week of the regular season at the high
18:00Major level and there's a calendar in East Lansing that often reads
18:05January
18:07February is oh and then
18:09April Donnie and outright Big Ten title on the line tonight in Iowa City for those
18:16Spartans Michigan State seven and a half point road favorite in Iowa
18:21Against the Hawkeyes inside Carver Hawkeye that total on the rise ever so slightly
18:27152 and a half MSU just needs a win
18:31Outright to claim the outright Big Ten regular season crown. Will they do just that and by how many points?
18:39Yeah, it's pretty good matchup here in this night for Michigan State with a lot on the line
18:42But if I'm being focused on one side of this game, it's Michigan State's defense
18:46Which is the best in Big Ten play number one overall in efficiency and also effective field goal percentage
18:51The one thing Michigan State doesn't do well is turn you over and the one thing Iowa does really well in offense
18:56Don't turn the basketball over but that's where everything else stops. It's hard to score in Michigan State
19:00Why because if you're Iowa and you don't rebound the basketball well in offense going up against a Michigan State defense that rebounds it the best
19:07In-conference play not a lot of second-chance points
19:09You're also not going to steal those second-chance points because typically a team like Michigan State 12 out of 18 will foul because they're aggressive
19:15But if you're not looking for those, let's get to the rim fouls
19:19Lasting conference plays Iowa getting to the free-throw line. Now, let's size it up from three-point range
19:23We know Iowa State went to launch from three-point range and they're good at doing it
19:26Just so happens Michigan is the best team in conference play at defending the three-point line
19:30So not a lot of plays at the free-throw line
19:33Not a lot of second-chance opportunities and I'm gonna get defended at the three-point line
19:37It sounds like Michigan State wins and the team total which I believe to move this morning was 72 and a half for Iowa
19:41Stays under that total and that's really the case for the Hawks, right?
19:45Can they score can they outpace that Michigan State defense that very few have been able to figure out this year in
19:52The Big Ten Michigan State under in 13 of 18 Big Ten games
19:57We'll talk about the history on the line tonight for Tom Izzo and company
20:03Live right here on this Thursday on the early line on sports grid
20:07It is the final week of the regular season at the high major level and really in the midweek portion of our slates a lot
20:14Of focus tonight in high major men's college basketball in one spot
20:18That is Iowa City as Michigan State the eighth ranked team in the country heads to take on the Hawkeyes with a win
20:26Michigan State claims the outright Big Ten title
20:29That would be Big Ten title number 11 for Tom Izzo already is number 11 as the Spartans
20:35Courtesy of a Maryland win in a Michigan loss last night
20:38Claimed at least a share of turn of conference title number 11
20:44But that is what is at stake tonight seven and a half point spread for a Michigan State team
20:49That has been covering in a large way in Big Ten play
20:52They are now 13 and 5 against the spread 13 of those 18 games
20:58Under for the league's best defense as well. They will let you shoot the three
21:04Although they defend it. Well, can I was shooters like Josh Dix Peyton Sanford can they get hot tonight from deep?
21:11We shall see but let's dive even deeper DRS more conference tournaments beginning on this Thursday
21:18Even some afternoon basketball courtesy of arts madness. That would be the Missouri Valley Conference
21:23Tournament starting at 1 p.m
21:26Eastern other notable Thursday games
21:28We are now into a Sun
21:31semifinal territory for teams still in the a Sun conference tournament looking for two spots in
21:38conference tournament championship game
21:40Of course looking for that automatic bid to the biggest of all dances the top team in the tournament
21:46Lipscomb double-digit favorite against Queens now just a five and a half point spread for Donnie's
21:53Jacksonville side as they take on North, Alabama the two seed in the tournament
21:58That is you and a DRS any a Sun looks for you on this Thursday
22:04Yeah, lips can probably the better team than Queens as you would expect here and also still keep in mind
22:08You see the at signs in conference play. These are not played just yet here at any let's just say, you know neutral site location
22:15So you have home court advantage, you know, we were looking at the Jacksonville Dolphins heading in
22:19They got one of their better players back in Stephon Payne a true rim protector
22:22Which should help them by the way Jacksonville's defense been number one overall in conference play and defense as we like to say does travel
22:28If there is a downfall there's they get a lot of their offense by playing pressure defense
22:32And if you're looking at North, Alabama, they're the best in conference play not turning the basketball over
22:37So that should hurt them a little bit
22:38But the reason why typically you lined up Jacksonville for me at that four to one price is number one getting back a key player
22:43Which they did get they shoot the three-point shot better than anybody in conference play
22:47But UNA's defense is very good at defending the three-point line
22:50Let's just see if they can get past this game and say, you know, what extra help from Stephon Payne
22:55We're gonna play this defense here
22:57And if they cover that's a little bit of a solace
22:59But we need them to win at least one more game and really start to turn that ticket into some money
23:03That's the game. I'm paying attention to because I like the Dolphins. Let's see what the Dolphins can do today
23:08And DRS elsewhere at the mid-major level some of the heavy hitters some of the top seeds in conference tournaments
23:13And through the fold today like in the Summit League the regular season outright champs
23:18the one seed with the Summit League coach of the year and Chris Crutchfield and
23:22With as well the Summit League player of the year and Markel Sutton still Omaha getting disrespected
23:29They're only a two and a half point favorite for their summer league quarterfinal opener against UMKC
23:35Now that number three and a half also st
23:40Thomas the two seed does play today against Denver eight and a half point spread in favor of
23:45St. Thomas Bucknell is the number one seed in the Patriot League
23:49They're in action today that line now seven and a half and if you still want to lay the seven and a half with the
23:54Bison it's minus 120 to do so Bucknell seemingly an overwhelming favorite against Loyola
24:01Yes, they are and by the way Bucknell obviously, you know, maybe the best team in conference play
24:05But also you're playing your home games. They're all throughout that's gonna be a big difference here efficiency
24:09Number one effective field because the percentage number one and the thing I always like get to the free-throw line
24:14These you could steal extra points
24:15They're also best in conference play and then just keep going down the list number one in conference play and making the three-point shot number
24:21Two and percentage inside the arc. Good luck with that. Loyola defense today Bucknell should be starting something in Lewisburg. That's positive today
24:29Inside Soyka Pavilion, that's where they play their home games. Robert Moore is the number one team. What?
24:36The a rod gonna be there sinking a half-court shots again
24:41When you're a top team in the Patriot League, you get a lot of love whatever you want, by the way
24:45Yeah
24:45Sure, who has won the last four Patriot League tournaments representing the Patriot League in the NCAA tournament Matt Lang will and company
24:53Seven and a half point favorite against army today in the three six matchup out in a Patriot League Robert Morris
24:59Top seed in the Horizon League tournament six and a half point favorite against Wright State. How about Youngstown State Purdue Fort Wayne?
25:06Basically, I'm gonna come as we enter the quarterfinals in Horizon League action
25:11Yeah, so our amused defense here. That's what we want to focus on. Also, Moontown should always get a kick out
25:16Do you remember a couple years ago?
25:17Was it the NIT where Kentucky went in to take on Robert Morris and Kentucky got beaten?
25:21Calipari was so happy because you wanted to kick every single player off the team and tell them they can't come back even if they
25:26Wanted to so Robert Morris always has a special part for me here and that defense is gonna bring it today
25:31I like this man. You're gonna be able to watch again starting at 1 p.m
25:34This afternoon a little arch band this and go all the way through you might look at the card again and say like man
25:39Where's all the high-level teams? Trust me. This is a good day of basketball if you get inside it
25:43Southern, Illinois, Indiana State in that opener in the MVC tournament known fondly as Arch Madness
25:50Arch Madness 1 p.m. Eastern Time and it's a basic pick'em between Southern, Illinois and Indiana State the Saluki's and
25:59The sycamores. Yeah, if I am not mistaken, Illinois State DRS
26:04Fifth seed in the MVC tournament a really slow in the Redbirds. What are they Redbirds?
26:10Yeah, there you got Illinois State take it on, Missouri State
26:13I believe the Bears as we learn all of our nicknames here and our
26:18Our team names, Missouri State bottom team only two wins
26:22Just two and 18 in MVC play throughout the regular season and as we have shared just a five point
26:29Five and a half point spread is it because Missouri State can shoot the three in Illinois State will allow it
26:34Maybe I'll go to the over one thirty two and a half in that matchup highest over team in MVC action
26:41That is the Redbirds of Illinois State 14 of 20 league games this year to the over
26:47Yeah, and always the tough part about that too is if you are a three-point shooting team and that's what we rely on they go
26:51Down there's nothing the other team can do but understand this when you're playing in a new environment that you're not used to here in
26:56a bigger arena
26:58Sometimes it's a little bit tougher to get started here live by the three die by the three
27:01We'll see if it plays out in that game that way
27:04Drs. I hope you have a wonderful time on the money line. It'll be great
27:07Sure, you will be breaking down college basketball games as well. See you tomorrow on a Friday my friend. Can't wait
27:14No big basketball Friday tomorrow get the people fired up. Yes, sir
27:19Hopefully no technical difficulties on T
27:22EL