IHSG -0,65% ke 6.592,664 sesi I Senin (10/3). IDX Sektor Perindustrian anjlok 2,29%, ASII -2,03%. IDX Sektor Barang Baku -2,29%, IDX Sektor Kesehatan -1,74%, KLBF -6,03%. IDX Sektor Keuangan -1,49%, BMRI -3,31% jadi laggard utama IHSG dengan kontribusi pelemahan 14,3 indeks poin. Dikutip Bloomberg, Investor asing melepas saham BMRI Rp4,33 T di Februari 2024, penjualan terbesar sejak 2020. Dari sisi saham, BREN -3,47% bebani IHSG di 8,67 indeks poin, BBRI -1,31% bebani IHSG 7,68 indeks poin.
Dari global, Wall Street mencoba bertahan dengan ditutup semringah di perdagangan akhir pekan lalu, meskipun terdapat kekhawatiran mengenai perlambatan ekonomi yang disebabkan dari perang tarif dagang.
Dari global, Wall Street mencoba bertahan dengan ditutup semringah di perdagangan akhir pekan lalu, meskipun terdapat kekhawatiran mengenai perlambatan ekonomi yang disebabkan dari perang tarif dagang.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment, we will be reviewing the trading path in the beginning of this week,
00:12while the Samkabungan family is again experiencing a fairly deep weakness.
00:15And we will remind you again that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive on 08.12.8788.723
00:23as shown on the television screen and later.
00:26And today, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. T. Herditya Wijaksana,
00:31who is the Head of Retail Reserve, MNC.
00:34Our security will be with him.
00:36Good evening, Mr. Didit. How are you, sir?
00:38Hello, good evening, Mr. David. How are you?
00:40Thank you, Mr. Didit, for taking the time for IDX Channel.
00:43How are you? Welcome back from the Samkabungan family, Mr. Didit.
00:47Today, the correction is quite deep and has been traded again at the level of 6,500.
00:54How is your analysis, especially from a technical point of view,
00:58of the pressure that has occurred throughout today's trading?
01:01Okay, thank you. If we look at it technically,
01:04in the short term, the movement of ISK is still in the trend phase.
01:09But if we look at it historically, in the medium term,
01:12we can see that the movement of ISK is still in a downtrend.
01:16And it seems quite natural for there to be a correction from ISK at the moment,
01:20where there is indeed a slight gap that has been closed by the movement of ISK itself,
01:26which is in the range of 6,570-6,573.
01:30And we estimate that the correction of ISK itself at the moment
01:33is still a fairly normal pullback,
01:36because it has been going down for three consecutive days,
01:39this has been quite strong.
01:41And we see the basic scenario
01:44where the correction of ISK seems to be tested in the range of 6,484 to 6,550.
01:54However, we still have a worse case scenario
01:57where if ISK is not able to break from the axis area at 6,698,
02:03then ISK is still likely to be corrected,
02:06at least to test in the area of 6,361-6,246 as the nearest support area.
02:12That's it, Mr. David.
02:13Okay, you said earlier that there will be an opportunity to test the support at 6,361.
02:18If I'm not mistaken, that was the lowest level last week, Mr. Didit.
02:24That's right, that level is the lowest level
02:27and at the same time as the nearest support area from the movement of ISK
02:31if ISK is not able to break from 6,698.
02:34However, that is still our worst case scenario.
02:37Okay, from the sentiment side, what do you think, Mr. Didit?
02:41The negative sentiment is still coming from the movement of ISK.
02:46Especially from the external, the trade war tariff seems to be getting hotter and wider.
02:51China is doing 100% for Canada.
02:55Then on the other side, from the domestic side,
02:57Goldman Sachs, after a few years ago,
03:00a few listed companies broke away from the Indonesian listed companies,
03:04Goldman Sachs also did the same thing.
03:09How do you see the resilience of the community
03:14in the middle of the negative sentiment that is developing, Mr. Didit?
03:17Okay, if we look at it, the movement of ISK is still often imagined
03:24with the negative sentiment from the external or from the domestic itself.
03:30And if we look at it externally,
03:32with the trade tariff or import tariff
03:35that was implemented by the US President Donald Trump yesterday
03:39to Canada, Mexico, and China,
03:43this creates a concern from the investors themselves
03:47or even globally
03:49because if there is an increase in the import tariff itself,
03:52it will increase the inflation
03:56both from the three countries
03:58or from the global inflation later.
04:01And if we worry about the increase in the price of goods and services,
04:05then the inflation will also increase the concern
04:09about the global economic delay in the future.
04:13Then if we look at it from Indonesia itself,
04:17there are several listed companies
04:19such as Morgan Stanley yesterday
04:21which is decreasing from the MSCI Indonesia side for its ranking.
04:26Then the latest is from Goldman Sachs
04:29which is decreasing from the level of goods and services in Indonesia.
04:32This also raises concerns from the investors themselves
04:36that there is still an outflow from the movement of ISK.
04:40And we hope to remember that last week,
04:42even though ISK was also noted to be strong,
04:45but the outflow is still rising from the movement of ISK itself.
04:49Where we see that the outflow is still quite large,
04:52as much as 450 billion from ISK like that.
04:56Okay, if we talk about foreign net sales,
04:59the outflow from domestic stock markets,
05:01pick-up bank, seems to still be the target until now.
05:05Intraday, during today's trading,
05:08BMRI is the main driver, sir.
05:10The latest data in the last week,
05:12BMRI is among the highest foreign net sales.
05:16Analysis and recommendations for BMRI, Mr. Didip?
05:20Okay, technically, we see that BMRI's movement
05:25is still quite heavy.
05:26For this movement, it is in the middle range.
05:29This is still below the trend and still below the MA20.
05:33And if we look at this morning's trading,
05:35this also caused a gap down,
05:37which is between 4.810 to 4.760.
05:41We are worried that in the future,
05:43the BMRI movement will still be dominated by the rise in sales pressure
05:47and will pass through the nearest support area
05:50which is at level 4,600.
05:54If there is a break from that area,
05:55then we expect the worst-case scenario,
05:58BMRI will test at 4.370 to 4.550.
06:02Because until now,
06:03both from the MSCD indicator
06:05or from the stochastic,
06:07there are no signs of a reverse trend from BMRI itself.
06:12What are the recommendations, sir,
06:13with the technical analysis for BMRI?
06:17Okay, for the recommendations,
06:18this is still related to the weighting first from BMRI.
06:23Because later it can be a buy-on weakness for BMRI itself
06:25if there is a break in the area of 4.550.
06:28So from that, it can be calculated first
06:31until a break from 4.550.
06:34Okay, in addition to BMRI,
06:35BMRI is also a correction today, sir,
06:37above 1%,
06:39has returned to the level of 3,700.
06:43Okay, for BMRI itself, it's actually quite the same.
06:46If from the EMIT and EMIT,
06:47this is still in the downtrend phase itself.
06:50And for the movement of BMRI,
06:51it is already at the beginning,
06:53sorry, below the MA20
06:56and is still dominated by the appearance of sales pressure
06:58from BMRI itself.
07:00We recommend for BMRI itself,
07:02this can later be used as a buy-on weakness first
07:06from 3,490 to 3,680
07:11by reflecting the stop-loss area or support
07:13is at 3,360.
07:17As long as it is still able to be above 3,360,
07:21then there is a possibility that BMRI itself
07:24has a chance to strengthen again,
07:26testing about 4,000 to 4,100, like that.
07:30Okay, analysis and recommendations
07:32from several BKB banking stocks
07:34which today are the main burden
07:36for the SAMKabungan family.
07:38From the financial sector,
07:40we try to shift to energy, sir,
07:42especially for these mining stocks,
07:44not just the energy sector and also the steel.
07:46From the update until now,
07:49the closing,
07:50these are coal stocks,
07:52then steel stocks,
07:54metal and raw minerals
07:57today are under quite a lot of pressure.
07:59How do you see the position of these stocks?
08:03Is this also affected, sir,
08:04from some growing sentiments,
08:07especially for the Royalty Tariff Scheme?
08:10Okay, if we look at it,
08:11indeed from the price movement,
08:14this is a movement from the price of minerals,
08:18from coal, energy, minerals like that,
08:22this is also still tending to downtrend.
08:24And we estimate that this is still affected,
08:26first from the price movement of the community,
08:30where if we know,
08:31the price movement of the coal community
08:33has weakened,
08:34more or less below level 105, like that,
08:37and this seems to have a negative effect
08:40on the movement of the stock price,
08:42then also from the price of other metal minerals,
08:46and on the other hand,
08:47in addition to the price of the world community,
08:50we estimate that this weakness also stems
08:53from the increase in royalties,
08:55both from the Royalty of coal
08:57or other mineral deposits.
08:58We estimate that with the Royalty,
09:02the increase in the Royalty tariff will reduce
09:04from the profit and margin ratio itself,
09:11where indeed with the increase in the Royalty,
09:14it will certainly reduce from both sides,
09:17and so this will also affect
09:19from the price of the emittance itself.
09:22However, we see in the future,
09:24it seems that with the low demand
09:29from the movement of coal
09:30or other metal minerals,
09:32this is quite normal for the weakening
09:35of the emittance of energy
09:36or other metal minerals, like that.
09:39Okay, a review of some emittance of minerals,
09:43metals and coal today experienced
09:45quite a deep correlation
09:46and also became a burden
09:47outside of Samsung's development of BKEP.
09:49From the fundamental side,
09:50it was said earlier that the factor
09:52that caused it and again,
09:54the decision to invest
09:55is still in the hands of the investors
09:56of AIDA Channel.
09:57Mr. Aditya, we will stop for a while,
09:59later we will see the Samsung choices
10:00that you recommend
10:01and at the same time,
10:02the closing update of the trading session
10:03in the second session today.
10:04And investors, we will be back in a moment.