Over 1% chance asteroid may hit Earth in 2032, says space agency

The Manila Times

Over 1% chance asteroid may hit Earth in 2032, says space agency  An asteroid that has a small chance of hitting the Earth in 2032 is being closely monitored by the European Space Agency (ESA), according to its Planetary Defense Office. Called 'Asteroid 2024 YR4,' it has an almost 99 percent chance of safely passing Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, but a possible impact cannot yet be entirely ruled out. It was first recognized as threat in December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. It is now moving away from Earth but will return in 2028.  REUTERS / EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY / ESA / NASA TV  Subscribe to The Manila Times Channel - https://tmt.ph/YTSubscribe    Visit our website at https://www.manilatimes.net    Follow us:  Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebook  Instagram - https://tmt.ph/instagram  Twitter - https://tmt.ph/twitter  DailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotion    Subscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digital    Check out our Podcasts:  Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotify  Apple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcasts  Amazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusic  Deezer: https://tmt.ph/deezer  Tune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein   #TheManilaTimes #tmtnews #asteroid #earth

Transcript

00:00After Discovery, we, as we typically do, we typically start collecting more measurements,

00:23more observations.

00:25And we quickly saw that the object was, let's say, having impact chances with the Earth

00:31in December 2032.

00:44Seeing that the impact probability that we are assessing has been changing from day to

00:51day.

00:52And this is the result of this daily update with new observations that we are collecting

00:59from either from our teams or from other teams that are observing also this object.

01:06So this is what allows us to redo every day the orbit determination process and redo every

01:13day the impact monitoring process that allows us to evaluate the impact probabilities.

01:52So, the object has been estimated to be in the range between 40 and 90 meters, and we

01:59are trying to collect as many observations, not what we call astronomical observations,

02:05we call the ones that allow us to determine the position in the sky.

02:10Of course, we are doing that a lot, but we also want to collect measurements that allow

02:13us to determine the physical properties of the asteroid, which would allow us to determine

02:18better the size of the object, and we are still doing that.

02:48The impact velocity, which will be in the order of 17.3 kilometers per second at the

03:06moment of the possible impact, and the density of the object, which we don't know.

03:13So for that, we have to do some, let's say, estimates.

03:18The amount of energy that would be released, taking into account those uncertainties, would

03:26range between 5 to 50 megatons.

03:48Let me tell you, the most likely scenario is that by the time we lose sight of the object

04:16in April this year, the impact probabilities will have lowered enough not to worry about

04:22this object anymore.

04:23However, there are still some small chances that it will remain in our rich list, and

04:30when we come back, when it will come back in 2028 and we re-observe it, at that time,

04:37it will have been so much time enough for us to determine whether it will be impacting

04:44or not completely.

04:45So it will be a zero or a hundred percent.

04:47And liftoff of the Falcon 9 and DART on NASA's first planetary defense test to intentionally

04:56crash into an asteroid.

04:58Just heard the call out for spacecraft separation.

05:04You can see the video of the DART spacecraft on its way, heading on its way to the Digimo

05:11system.

05:12What a spectacular view of DART.

05:13Yep.

05:14Just floating away from the Falcon 9 second stage.

05:15And you can see the sun off to the side there as DART drifts away from the Falcon 9 second

05:16stage.

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