IHSG -2,20% ke 6.724,42 di sesi I Jumat (7/2). Sektor energi -5,34%, Sektor barang baku -3,51%. Sektor infrastruktur -2,63%. Sementara sektor teknologi +0,37%. Dari sisi saham, emiten Group Prajogo Pangestu ARB, BREN -19,94% ARB, CUAN -19,96%, dan PTRO -21,47% usai gagal masuk indeks MSCI. Pelemahan IHSG terbatas ditopang saham perbankan besar BBCA +2,23% dan BBRI +1,01%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment, we will review the trading path today.
00:11Late weekend, it seems the news is not good.
00:14Back again from Indek Harga, a joint stock.
00:16And we will not come back, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 8788 3723
00:23as shown on your television screen later.
00:26And right now, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Hadrian Menartaslim,
00:30Head of Equity, Capital Security.
00:34We will go straight to you, Mr. Hadrian. Good evening. How are you, Mr. Hadrian?
00:39Good evening. Good evening, Mr. David.
00:41Thank you for spending your time on IDA channel.
00:44Late weekend, it seems the weakness of Indek Harga continues.
00:50Today's intraday was up to 6,600.
00:52However, the weakness seems to be broken and today's position is back to 6,700.
00:58Technically, how do you see the internal weakness that continues throughout today's trade?
01:05Yes, technically, the potential is not good.
01:09It looks like it's going to support.
01:11Even there is a rebound in the intraday, but it is not able to pass the level of support that was passed earlier.
01:17Therefore, from now on, the support becomes resistant.
01:19Therefore, this is a chance for it to go down further and open up more widely.
01:24The near support is at 6,640 for ISK.
01:28And the current resistance is at 6,800.
01:31Okay, weekly and year-to-date, the weakness is already above 5%, Mr. Hadrian.
01:37With the internal pressure that has occurred.
01:40There is a change in the pattern, not from Indek Harga and Kebungan.
01:43In the short term, this has started to show an uptrend.
01:47In the medium term, is there a downtrend for Indek Harga and Kebungan?
01:52Yes, if we look at it this way, it has broken the trend and most likely a downtrend.
01:57And this is actually like a flower that happened in 2018 and 2019.
02:02At that time, Donald Trump was just in office and there was a volatility in the market.
02:07This time, the flower is quite similar.
02:09And it looks like it will rebound in Q2 and Q3.
02:13So I think investors just need to be aware of the areas of support.
02:17And according to each trading pair.
02:20Overall, Mr. Hadrian, apart from the technical side,
02:24what is the main reason that Indek Harga and Kebungan still continue to weaken today's trade?
02:32Yes, in my opinion, the increase in ISG by 5% weekly is due to many factors.
02:37The first factor is economic slowdown.
02:40Our GDP data yesterday was 5.02%.
02:44Whereas the forecast was 5.2%.
02:46So this is below expectations, below the forecast.
02:48So this is one of them.
02:50Banking liquidity is tight.
02:51Because from America itself, the Fed looks like this.
02:55Donald Trump's tariff policy is to boost trade.
02:58So the economic uncertainty increases.
03:00China is down.
03:02Mexico and Canada are on a 30-day pause.
03:05This is a global uncertainty.
03:07The relationship between the Fed and the office.
03:09So there are many factors.
03:11Banking will definitely hit.
03:12The relationship may not go down.
03:14So maybe it will stay.
03:16And this will affect the economy.
03:18So many investors are attracted to gold.
03:20That's why gold prices tend to increase.
03:22Although the tariff has fallen today.
03:24But for the time being, gold prices have risen to 2,850.
03:28This means that if gold prices continue to rise,
03:30people will start to avoid risky instruments.
03:33That is the stock market.
03:34This is a cycle of the market.
03:36So we just have to wait for the cycle to rise again
03:39after the economy becomes stable again.
03:43Okay, Mr. Hadrian.
03:44Outside of the fundamental sentiment that you mentioned,
03:47the attention of market players today
03:49is also directed to the stocks of the Rayogo group.
03:53Mr. Ngeistu.
03:54And all of them seem to be experiencing weaknesses.
03:57Which is not in line with expectations.
04:00Previously, it was said that it would be included in the NCI index.
04:03It turns out that the assessment this time failed again.
04:06And the response from investors,
04:08some of the stocks, Brand, Cuan, and PTRO,
04:11which failed to enter,
04:13experienced a downturn,
04:14and also experienced quite a deep correction.
04:16How big do you see the potential of this effect
04:19on the continuation of the weakness of the YSG
04:21throughout today's trade?
04:23Yes, it's very significant.
04:25It's very impactful.
04:26Especially Brand, Cuan, and PTRO,
04:29are among the top 10, top 15 market caps.
04:33So, especially Brand,
04:35which is now number two,
04:36usually number one again.
04:37So, its expansion to A and B,
04:39the top 20,
04:40is very, very heavyweight for the YSG.
04:43MSCI has a few rebalancing days.
04:47The big ones are usually in May and November.
04:52Those are usually the big ones.
04:53So, I think MSCI is also a statement.
04:56It is not likely in the future
04:58to consider going back in.
05:00So, I think this is just a panic-sharing trend.
05:03I think Brand will reach the support level
05:05at 5.625, 5.675.
05:07We'll see tomorrow.
05:09I think there will still be resistance.
05:11As a company,
05:12this is actually still fundamental.
05:14However, this panic-sharing issue
05:16may be used by some people
05:18to take a profit first.
05:21All right. Today, Brand's weakness is quite deep, Pak,
05:23at 19.94% in 2025.
05:26But before we go on to the technical side,
05:28how important is it,
05:31how gangster is it,
05:32if a share or emittance
05:34enters the MSCI index, Pak?
05:36Yes.
05:37In my opinion, it is very important.
05:39First, MSCI will have capital inflow.
05:42So, as a foreign investor
05:44who will enter there,
05:45the emittance will benefit.
05:48Not foreign.
05:49Because of capital inflow,
05:50the price can go down,
05:51it will go up,
05:52it will be more prestigious,
05:53it will be more open for its money, right?
05:55Yes.
05:56So, it will help foreign investors.
05:57So, it's very significant, Pak.
05:58So, if it's not MSCI,
06:00maybe there is a feeling
06:01that the goal has been achieved.
06:03Okay.
06:04Maybe the expectation is too high, isn't it, Pak?
06:06That's right.
06:07The expectation is too high.
06:09That's why I think this is just a cycle.
06:11Yes, and the price has also risen,
06:13it has price-in before, it seems.
06:15Let's go straight to Brand.
06:17Mr. Hadrian, today Autoreject Bawah,
06:19do you see the projection
06:21or analysis and recommendations
06:23for next week, Pak?
06:25Wow, it's a bit heavy next week.
06:27But if we look at it,
06:28tomorrow Autoreject Bawah,
06:30to level 5.625, 5.675,
06:33I think there is already resistance.
06:36I think the support is at 5.625 to 5.675.
06:39So, I think the brand will consolidate next week.
06:42Maybe in the area of 5.675 to 6,000 first.
06:45Before it can come back and strengthen further.
06:48Has it been buy-on support or not, Pak?
06:50Or more like WNC first
06:51with potential weaknesses that are still open,
06:53as you said earlier?
06:55Yes, I am WNC at 5.625 to 5.675.
06:59If it rises, tomorrow there will be buy-on support.
07:01Okay.
07:04Okay, let's move on to Cuan, Pak.
07:06Today, Autoreject Bawah, 11,325.
07:09Hmm.
07:12Support at MA50 at 10,700.
07:15But if we look at Autoreject Bawah again,
07:18the next support is at MA200
07:20at around 8,600 to 8,700.
07:23So, as an investor, I will look for the best price
07:26at 8,600 to 8,700
07:288,600 to 8,700 to buy-on support.
07:32Okay.
07:33Next, for Petro Sia, Pak.
07:36Today, it's actually a deep correction,
07:38but Autoreject Bawah didn't experience it.
07:40Sanda's analysis.
07:412,880 closures,
07:43weakening at 24.61%.
07:46Yes.
07:47Petro is a bit special compared to the previous three.
07:49Because there was a resistance in Intraday.
07:52Now, Petro, if we look at it,
07:54it's also a gap down.
07:55The ball at MA50,
07:57maybe it will wait for support in the area of 2,600,
08:00as close as possible.
08:01But if Autoreject Bawah happens again tomorrow,
08:03the potential can reach the level of 2,000 to 2,200 again.
08:06So, we'll see the synchronization later.
08:08As long as it's still A and B,
08:09don't grab the knife and fall.
08:11But when there is resistance,
08:13the closures have strengthened,
08:15it's money for investors to start getting a discount.
08:18Okay.
08:19For price recovery later,
08:21will Petro be faster from a technical point of view
08:24considering that Petro didn't experience Autoreject Bawah?
08:27And you said there was resistance in Intraday.
08:30Yes.
08:31As we can see from the strength of Petro,
08:34Petro is more profitable.
08:35Okay.
08:36Technically, it's more profitable.
08:38It's faster.
08:39Analysis from Samsam Grup Rakyat Gopeng Estu
08:42which today has become a burden for Indekargas Samkabungan
08:44and hopefully can be a reference for you.
08:47Mr. Hadrian, next we move to the financial sector, sir.
08:51Where earlier Indekargas Samkabungan
08:53had weakened to 6,600 intraday.
08:57Indekargas Samkabungan tried to reduce or cut the weakness to 6,700 intraday.
09:02It turns out there are some big cap banks
09:04that are turning to strengthen today.
09:06Including BBCA,
09:07which you said earlier was about to take over the capitalization
09:11in the Indonesian stock exchange with Brent.
09:13How do you see the strengthening that happened for BBCA today?
09:17It's quite significant, 4.47%.
09:20Well, BBCA is trading well.
09:23Trading well because our stock is also
09:26because there is support at 8,775.
09:30Actually, in the May-June area,
09:32in the previous year, there was a support area.
09:34BBCA is a bit low there and rebound.
09:37So it turns out it's true.
09:39Yesterday it was held, today it broke through the MA10 again at 9,300,
09:43closing at 9,350.
09:45So this is a good trading for BBCA.
09:47The support can use 8,775.
09:49The target is at 9,500 first in the short term.
09:53Do you see the investors buy-on support for BBCA?
09:57It was also pushed to 8,825 earlier.
10:00Yes, I think BCA is a buy-on support investor
10:05because of the solid fundamentals.
10:08And MSCI is also 29% itself.
10:11So this is still very sexy.
10:14If it is corrected, it will be very popular.
10:18Okay, analysis for BBCA,
10:20which today is the largest support in the region of Kastemkabungan,
10:23so that it is able to break through the internal support
10:25that occurred throughout today's trading.
10:27Let's move to BBRI, sir.
10:29It was pushed to 3,940 earlier,
10:32then back to the green zone,
10:35then stagnant,
10:36then at the last minute of the second closing period,
10:39same as BBCA,
10:41the strength is more significant at 1.51%
10:44and has returned to the level of 4,030
10:47Coincidentally, 4,030 is the highest intraday today.
10:50Yes, so the return is quite good.
10:53Actually, in terms of net foreign buy,
10:56in terms of foreign info,
10:58BBN has also started to enter.
11:01I think this is also a buy-on investor,
11:04but more speculative
11:05because the rebound is not as significant as BBCA.
11:08The closest target is at 4,170,
11:11the support is at 3,800 for BBN.
11:14How do you expect Kinerja to be released?
11:17BBRI seems to be the only one that will be released again, sir.
11:22Yes, I haven't updated the release date yet.
11:25It's February 5th,
11:26but I think there's a change in the schedule.
11:29Well, I haven't got the latest schedule yet.
11:32But in terms of profit, there are already shares,
11:35still around 50 trillion per year,
11:38the minimum net,
11:39like Mandiri 55T or BSR 54T,
11:41this is 50 trillion.
11:43Indeed, the constant investor, I think,
11:45is the dividend payout ratio.
11:47Yes.
11:48Is it too big?
11:49So like HMSP or Unilever,
11:51it means there is no expansion or no support.
11:54Well, this will be constant.
11:55Maybe that's all to consider.
11:57Yes, a review of some of the shares
11:59that have become the mainstay
12:00and also become supporters of the Samgabungan family
12:02in the weekend holidays
12:03and hopefully it can be one of your references.
12:06Mr. Adrian, we will not go further,
12:07later we will just look at the shares,
12:08choose whatever you recommend
12:10and also the trade closure update
12:12in the second session today.
12:13And we will be right back in a moment.