Capital outflow tekan IHSG lebih dari 2%, menyentuh level terendah 8 bulan. Apa langkah antisipasinya?"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Jumat (07/02/2025) dengan Tema IHSG Anjlok Lebih dari 2%, Perbankan Big Caps Berguguran. Apa Antisipasinya?".
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00:00Thank you for joining us. In the next episode, we will take a look at the Spotlight market.
00:10Among them is the ISG, which is one of the lowest levels in 8 months.
00:13It is dominated by a large number of banks.
00:15And other information in the Spotlight market is among them about the gold price,
00:19which broke a new record in the U.S. dollar exchange rate.
00:23The British pound is 7 trillion rupiah in 2024, which jumped 23%.
00:30Next, we will talk about the economic agenda.
00:33From the U.S., we have data on unemployment rate.
00:35From Canada, we have unemployment rate.
00:38From the U.K., we have data on B.O.E. Governor, Bailey.
00:42From Germany, we have data on trade balance.
00:45From France, we have trade balance data.
00:48From Japan, we have data on deficit saving.
00:51From China, we have data on deficit saving.
00:55From Indonesia, we have data on deficit saving.
01:04Next, we will talk about the M10 Agenda.
01:07Among them is AMOR, KUM DEVIDEN TUNAI INTERIM.
01:10Next, we will take a look at the opening of the ASEAN main exchanges this morning.
01:16The ASEAN main exchanges this morning were opened mixed with Nikkei,
01:21which fell 0.34% to level 38,933.
01:25Singapore's SII strengthened 0.24% to level 3,839.
01:29KOSPI Korea fell 0.29% to level 2,529.
01:33Hong Kong's Hang Seng opened 0.16% to level 20,858.
01:46To discuss this morning, we are already in contact with Mr. Owen Hendrayana,
01:51Vice President of Infovesta. Good morning, Mr. Owen.
01:54Good morning.
01:55Thank you for joining us on Market Plus this time.
01:57Mr. Owen, if we look at the closing of IHSG trading on Thursday,
02:03which fell above 2%,
02:05will this then become a level that needs to be monitored, Mr. Owen?
02:08Yes, of course, with the development of macroeconomics,
02:13as well as from an external perspective,
02:16the selling pressure on IHSG is quite high,
02:19and it passed support at 7,000.
02:22So it's only natural that IHSG will still have a potential to be corrected,
02:27especially today,
02:29the possibility of some major conglomerates
02:32experiencing significant correction.
02:35It means that this has become a deep weakness
02:38for the last eight months,
02:40and this also needs to be anticipated.
02:43Moreover, if we look at the conglomerates,
02:45it may also be part of your monitoring radar,
02:48and maybe there is one of the conglomerates that is also recommended
02:51because the price has been discounted a lot.
02:54Okay, talking about the pattern,
02:55does this mean that it can become a pattern that is in force in today's trade, Mr. Owen?
03:00Yes, if we talk about the pattern,
03:02then historically,
03:04every time IHSG touched the all-time high,
03:07it can be followed by a correction of up to 20%,
03:11this is historically,
03:12with various reasons, of course.
03:14So if we hit the all-time high yesterday at 7,900,
03:18then actually, historically, it's not strange
03:20if IHSG is even corrected to 6,500 or even below that.
03:24But of course, this requires a strong negative catalyst,
03:28so there will be a correction.
03:29For now, there is a negative catalyst,
03:32but I don't see it very strong,
03:34so we can reach the level below 6,700 or 6,600.
03:40But in the short term,
03:42investors still have to be vigilant
03:44because there is a gap in the economy,
03:48especially outside,
03:49related to President Trump's policy,
03:51it is still full of uncertainty,
03:52so many investors wait and see,
03:54and some decide to leave the stock market first
03:59and enter the instrument that is considered safer.
04:02Okay, if we look at this just for benchmarks,
04:05what is the normal level of IHSG?
04:09Yes, if the target for this year itself is actually normal
04:13if we can go back to 7,500 or 7,600 at the end of the year.
04:18This reflects our growth,
04:20maybe 6% to 8% this year.
04:24But with the correction,
04:27technically, the next support is at 6,700.
04:31We do not hope that it can be reached again.
04:34Okay, good.
04:35Talking about what happened in the trade yesterday,
04:39this is an implication of various policies
04:43implemented by the US President Donald Trump
04:47and gives implications for the global economic boom.
04:51Related to the uncertainty of the global economy
04:53caused by Donald Trump's policy,
04:55what should be the attitude of the stock market players?
05:00Yes, we can look at the first government of President Trump.
05:05Usually, at the beginning of his government,
05:09he made a lot of conflicts
05:11with his style that tends to make a ruckus at first
05:18to the countries that were invited to negotiate.
05:23Of course, this will create a lot of volatility
05:28because his policies can only be viewed negatively
05:33for the market, especially the emerging market
05:36and one of them is Indonesia.
05:38Because one of President Trump's goals
05:40is to negotiate with China.
05:44And Indonesia's biggest export is to China.
05:48So if China is experiencing economic slowdowns,
05:50we will definitely be affected too.
05:52So for the beginning,
05:54I suggest wet-and-see.
05:57If you are interested,
05:59because some stocks are clearly cheap right now,
06:03but to be able to enter the market,
06:05I suggest more diversification or averaging.
06:09Okay, averaging, diversification,
06:11or maybe just buy and sell.
06:13And also wet-and-see,
06:14maybe this can be one thing that is quite safe
06:17to apply in today's investment or trade strategy.
06:21Okay, talking about B-Caps,
06:23actually a lot of foreign currencies
06:25also burdened the IHSG yesterday,
06:27so it was closed above 2%.
06:29Other reasons, is it because it's already leveled overboard,
06:33already above the normal price,
06:36or is it just because of capital outflows,
06:39Mr. Wandan?
06:41Coincidentally, the financial sector is the target.
06:44Yes, if the financial sector itself,
06:47this is indeed the largest sector in terms of market cap in Indonesia.
06:51And if we talk about foreign currencies,
06:53the biggest one is definitely finance.
06:55If we talk about finance, of course,
06:57it's closely related to the macroeconomy in Indonesia.
06:59And the data released by the IHSG yesterday,
07:03for example, related to economic growth in 2024,
07:06turns out this is a decline.
07:08Our growth is only 5.03,
07:11below the previous year, which was 5.05.
07:14This is also, if we look at January,
07:18it experienced a deflation of 0.76%,
07:20and this shows that
07:23the purchasing power of the community is indeed declining.
07:26Community spending may also be limited,
07:29and the government itself, we also see,
07:32is issuing policies to save money.
07:35So, these factors make
07:39the potential growth of banks,
07:42maybe in this year's Q1, it's more limited.
07:45This is what makes foreigners
07:47who are also pushed by uncertainty from the outside,
07:50choose to exit first.
07:53Because if we calculate from their purchase price,
07:56actually, even if they exit at the current price,
07:59they are still profiting.
08:01So, if we say, did Samsung Bank
08:04ever overbought? I don't think so.
08:06Okay. What's interesting is,
08:08and this also gets attention from the market players,
08:10attention from the independent banks,
08:138% or so.
08:15What do you think about this?
08:17Is this actually a reflection of the market players' disappointment
08:20related to the independent bank's financial report,
08:22or what is it like, Mr. Wawan?
08:24That's right. So, if we talk about year-on-year,
08:27actually, the independent bank's growth is very good.
08:30But the high growth,
08:32the driver is in Q1 to Q3 last year.
08:36In Q4, the report showed
08:39there was a delay.
08:41So, what investors are worried about is
08:44the high growth is not sustained.
08:46Meaning, last year, it was a good year,
08:49but this year, they are worried there will be a decline.
08:52I think, fundamentally,
08:54the independent bank is still one of the best banks in Indonesia.
08:57And the growth potential is still there.
09:00So, it's actually an opportunity,
09:03if the investor is long-term,
09:04this is an opportunity when the independent bank is being sold
09:07by a foreign investor.
09:08But in the short term,
09:10the volatility will still be high,
09:12until the next financial report from the independent bank
09:15can show there is still growth
09:18from the credit side, especially.
09:19How long can this be used
09:21to enter the independent bank with a discounted price?
09:24I see almost all banks are discounted.
09:28So, if we talk about last week,
09:31the most discounted is the independent bank.
09:33But I still recommend WNNC,
09:35because when foreigners are selling big,
09:40they don't look at the fundamentals,
09:42until the selling target is achieved.
09:45So, there is no need to rush for investors,
09:49because even if there is a 1-2% rebound,
09:53it can be seen,
09:54there is a return trend,
09:56at the level of 5,000,
10:00the independent bank is still cheap.
10:01Okay.
10:02I see WNNC as a stock
10:04that you recommend this morning.
10:06What is the complete analysis like?
10:07We will continue the discussion in the next episode, Mr. Owen.
10:09Stay with us, we will be back soon.