MEDI1TV Afrique : Les prévisions de la Banque mondiale sur la croissance au Maroc avec Ali Ghanbouri - 21/01/2025
Catégorie
🗞
NewsTranscription
00:00Hello ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Mediain TV.
00:133.9% growth in 2025.
00:16This is what the latest projections of the World Bank predict for Morocco.
00:21This is better than the world average in an international context marked by inflation and interest rates falling.
00:28Still, according to the projections of the World Bank, the world economy should grow by only 2.7% in 2025 and 2026.
00:37And we are going to decrypt these figures in this Focus Eco with Ali Ranbouri.
00:42You are an economist, president of the Center for Economic and Social Prospection.
00:47It is a pleasure to have you with us today.
00:50Approximately 4% growth in 2025.
00:53This is what the World Bank predicts for Morocco.
00:58This is better than the world average in an international context marked by inflation and interest rates falling.
01:06What do you think of this figure?
01:08I think it is a positive figure compared to last year in terms of growth.
01:14Since we recorded 3% growth last year, this year there are positive forecasts,
01:23not only through the World Bank, but also through the Moroccan public institutions,
01:31whether it is the Finance Law, the HCP, or the Central Bank.
01:38The Finance Law predicts 4.6%.
01:42Today, the HCP predicts 3.9% growth.
01:51But all these forecasts are linked to the realization of two essential things.
01:58First, we must have a positive agricultural context,
02:06because last year we recorded a negative growth of less than 5%.
02:13During this year, we plan to record 4.1% agricultural growth
02:26and we must also be very vigilant about what is happening internationally,
02:34especially since we have an international economic instability
02:38in view of the geopolitical context, in view of the wars, in view of many things,
02:43which will certainly impact several value chains,
02:49especially in terms of oil products and food products.
02:55We have a ceasefire that has been announced in Palestine.
02:58This is good news.
02:59This is good news.
03:00Donald Trump's investment should give a new dynamic to this global economy
03:05and boost the American economy.
03:09But before talking about macroeconomics, we will stay on these figures.
03:14Which economic sectors will attract the Moroccan economy
03:19to reach these projections, which revolve around 4%, positive projections,
03:26but which are not optimistic in the sense that it is several institutions
03:31that give this figure, so very realistic, isn't it?
03:34First, it should be mentioned that the Moroccan economy,
03:38if it is going to record these figures, it is thanks to the internal demand.
03:43Why internal demand?
03:46Because we anticipate that there will be an increase of 3.2%
03:54in terms of internal demand.
03:56This is explained by three essential things.
04:00First, it is the increase in wages.
04:05There will certainly be an impact in terms of consumption.
04:11Secondly, we have been able to control the rate of inflation,
04:17which will also impact consumption.
04:20And we have also recorded, whether at the international level
04:25or at the national level, a stability in prices.
04:29We can even say that there was a sustained stability in prices,
04:39which will certainly impact consumption.
04:43So, increase in consumption, stability in prices, you said it,
04:47and then we talked about inflation, which is also stable.
04:50Yes, stable inflation, but there is also another point,
04:53which is the external demand, the external demand of Morocco.
04:58However, phosphate products will also see a significant increase.
05:05First, it is the secondary sector, i.e. the industry,
05:11which will record an increase of more than 5%,
05:16especially in the sectors where there is export,
05:20the automotive sector, the chemical sector, the chemical industry,
05:26and also everything related to the tertiary sector,
05:30because we have recorded a significant evolution.
05:34First, at the level of tourism, and secondly, at the level of logistics.
05:41So, I think that these elements will draw on everything
05:46that has to do with growth and everything that has to do
05:49with the economic yield we generate.
05:52We will talk point by point.
05:53We will stay on this increase in wages, you said it,
05:55this inflation and stabilization of inflation and prices,
05:59but a purchasing power that is still not sufficient.
06:03So, how do you really expect this consumption to be boosted
06:08at the level of households, despite the value of the money
06:12which remains lower at the level of tourism?
06:14Internal consumption can be measured by two things.
06:18First, everything that has to do with the indicators
06:23that push the consumption of individuals or households,
06:27i.e. we cannot deny that an increase in wages
06:31will not impact consumption.
06:34Of course.
06:35That's for sure.
06:36But when prices maintain an increase…
06:38Yes, we are now talking about growth compared to last year.
06:42That's right, yes.
06:43So, today, there is an improvement in terms of consumption indicators.
06:52So, we have an increase in wages.
06:54Of course, there will be a positive impact on consumption.
07:01Also, there is stability in terms of inflation.
07:05We cannot deny that in 2023, the inflation rate was 6.1%.
07:12In 2022, it was 6.6%.
07:15Today, the inflation rate is less than 1%.
07:18So, there will be an improvement in terms of consumption.
07:22Secondly, the second point is everything that has to do with public investment.
07:29Public investment, which is now breaking records.
07:32Today, we have 340 billion dirhams in terms of the budget
07:41linked to investment here in Morocco.
07:43So, we will have a significant impact on everything
07:47that has to do with internal demand.
07:51And a new dynamic, which should be triggered in 2025.
07:55Yes.
07:56And which is expected.
07:57Yes, of course.
07:58So, you also mentioned external demand.
08:01Morocco is in a very good position this year.
08:04There are good figures that we will consolidate.
08:07Several sectors are drawing on this external economy.
08:09You mentioned cars, aeronautics.
08:12The chemical sector is also third.
08:14In terms of tourist arrivals, indeed,
08:17there is a record of 17.4 million.
08:21Exactly.
08:22So, to dethrone Egypt, at least in terms of arrivals.
08:24But we have to work more on recipes.
08:27Yes, that's for sure.
08:29Try to increase tourist recipes.
08:33Tourist recipes are by no means compatible with the flow in terms of tourists.
08:40We have 17.4 million tourists.
08:45And on the other hand, we do not exceed 120 billion dirhams.
08:52Which is a good figure, but we can do much better.
08:55A good figure, yes.
08:57But it has nothing to do with the compatibility with the number of tourists.
09:03So, I think we still have problems in terms of tourism.
09:09As far as the financial performance of tourism is concerned.
09:13So, we have to work on diversifying the tourist circuit.
09:18We also have to diversify our tourist offer.
09:22We must not limit ourselves to hotels and restaurants.
09:27We have to go beyond this logic.
09:29This is the heart of what has been addressed in the tourist roadmap.
09:37So, we have to make this change to improve performance.
09:40Because whether we want it or not, we opt for tourism.
09:46It is for financial performance.
09:48It is to generate resources.
09:50So, the objective is clear.
09:54We must work on improving the performance of the tourist sector.
10:00Since we are today at record figures in terms of tourist flow.
10:06So, we can also succeed in this challenge of the financial performance of tourism.
10:12A good dynamic that is triggered.
10:14Still a lot of work to do to consolidate these figures.
10:19And further support economic growth at the national level.
10:23To conclude, what would be the challenges for the national economy?
10:28Or the challenges, as you said earlier,
10:30certainly linked to global economic uncertainty.
10:34With this investment by Donald Trump,
10:37what could be the global economic challenges?
10:42The economic challenges for Morocco are two major strategic challenges.
10:49First, we have this issue related to energy.
10:53Today, we have a commercial deficit of 29.5 billion dollars.
10:59This is a deficit at the level of the commercial balance.
11:02More than 60% of this deficit is due to energy products.
11:07Our energy bill in 2022 reached 16 billion dollars.
11:1316 billion dollars is the budget that Morocco, Portugal and Spain will organize worldwide.
11:21Today, we cannot continue in this direction.
11:24Today, we have a development logic.
11:26We want to become an emerging country on the horizon of 2035.
11:33So, the first issue for the national economy is energy.
11:40We must make the energy transition.
11:42We must succeed in the large projects launched at the energy level.
11:47The second challenge for the Moroccan economy is water.
11:52We have a problem.
11:54Today, we are located in an area where there are climate changes
12:00that will certainly impact everything related to water here in Morocco.
12:05So, we must succeed in our strategic plan for water,
12:09desalination, water treatment, water highways.
12:16So, we must succeed.
12:17For me, I think these are the two major challenges for the Moroccan economy.
12:21If we manage to succeed in these two challenges,
12:25I think we will have good economic returns
12:31and we will have results that will be very far from these results.
12:36Because in order to achieve this goal of becoming an emerging country
12:42on the horizon of 2035,
12:45we must achieve a growth rate that cannot be less than 6%.
12:52In any case, you said it, all the construction sites,
12:56the large structuring construction sites have been launched
12:58to achieve these two challenges, which are energy and water.
13:03Thank you, Mr. Ali Renboulé.
13:05I remind you that you are President of the Center for Economic and Social Prospection.
13:09You are also an economist.
13:10It was a pleasure to have you with us.
13:12Thank you for all these presentations.
13:14This is the end of Focus Eco for today.
13:16We will meet again tomorrow with a new guest and a new topic.
13:19Have a good day.
13:20Thank you for your loyalty.