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NewsTranscript
00:00Let's update on the new big-time oil price hike. We will talk to DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau Director-Attorney Rino Abad.
00:07Good morning and welcome to Balitang Hali.
00:10Good afternoon sir Rafi, to your program and to our countrymen.
00:16What is the reason for the upcoming oil price hike?
00:20Sir Rafi, this is an immediate onset effect.
00:24When the new US sanctions against Russia were just released,
00:32I estimate that 180 shadow tankers were released.
00:39These tankers were the ones who were sanctioned and were not able to deliver.
00:46The estimated affected supply delivered by these tankers would be around 1.6 million barrels of oil per day.
00:57Their destination is usually China and India.
01:02There are products affected, meaning refined products, around 180,000 to 200,000 barrels per day.
01:12This 1.6 million barrels of oil is around 1.6 to 2 percent of the global supply.
01:20This is an immediate impact.
01:23China has also issued a confirmation in its reports,
01:29advising all refinery ports in China not to accept tankers included in the list of US sanctions.
01:43In other words, this has a heavy effect.
01:48In other words, even China, most likely India will follow suit because China has already followed suit.
01:54It seems that these tankers will not be able to deliver,
01:59affecting immediately the supply of this estimated 1.6 million barrels of oil.
02:05In short, sir Rafi, the markets will be able to adjust.
02:11There will be a replacement, like OPEC Plus, which has a delay.
02:17The target is April 2025 to return 2.2 million barrels.
02:22But that is still speculative.
02:25We don't know if it will be returned earlier or even in April.
02:31Because 2.2 million barrels can offset the estimated affected supply.
02:40That is the situation.
02:41That is why on the onset, this is what happened to us.
02:44The price went up.
02:47Effectively, the 1.6 million barrels were not on the market.
02:50That is the immediate effect.
02:51Is that what you are saying?
02:52That is what will happen in the coming days if the tankers will not be able to distribute.
02:58Effectively, reflecting the non-exemption of Russian oil to the global market,
03:07definitely there will be a supply tension, a shortfall in the supply.
03:15In fact, in our first quarter last year,
03:19the projection is that there will be an oversupply of around 800,000 to 1 million barrels.
03:25But because of this sanction, the effect of oversupply would have been eliminated.
03:31It is said that the price would have been good.
03:32But because of this sanction, the outlook for the price would have been good.
03:41What is your projection until when?
03:42Is it possible that the price of oil will increase?
03:46Will it increase in the coming weeks and months?
03:49That is the tendency until, as I said, the replacement volume will come out,
03:58the 2.2 million barrels of OPEC Plus.
04:00Recently, President Trump announced, along with their sanction,
04:08that the U.S. will boost its supply.
04:12If you look at it, they stopped Russia, but they are making up for it by issuing additional supply.
04:25It is like a replacement.
04:27OPEC Plus plus what the U.S. is saying is a replacement.
04:32Effectively, they are eliminating Russian oil.
04:37But the U.S. will supply a larger volume and hoping that OPEC Plus can also supply.
04:46But these are speculative at this point in time.
04:48It looks like there will be speculation until there is a replacement supply.
04:55That's what he's saying.
04:56Drill, drill, drill.
04:57But how fast will this happen when they have already boosted and stopped their drilling operation?
05:04OPEC Plus is fast.
05:07Anytime, they can decide hurriedly.
05:09Their meeting is on Monday.
05:11Instead of April, they can do it earlier.
05:13But again, we cannot say that to Rafi.
05:18The U.S. would definitely take time.
05:21It's not that fast.
05:22Because OPEC has a ready supply.
05:25They just stopped it.
05:26Meaning, they just had a production cut.
05:29But the U.S., they have to come up with an additional supply.
05:34It's not available.
05:36It needs to be issued.
05:39If they can issue it, beyond what they are producing today.
05:44That's our situation.
05:47I expect that the price of gasoline will be volatile in the coming months.
05:52Thank you very much, DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau Director, Atty. Rino Abad.
05:59Good morning to all.
06:00Good morning.