Political science professor Dominic O’Sullivan predicts the likely dates for the 2025 federal election.
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00:00We're looking most realistically at either March or May.
00:09It has to be held by the 17th of May.
00:13The term of the Parliament is prescribed, and while the House of Representatives term
00:19could technically go a little longer, the half-Senate election has to be held and the
00:24votes counted in time for new Senators to be sworn in by the 1st of July when the term
00:32takes effect.
00:33So that effectively creates a deadline.
00:40There's an election in March in Western Australia, and given the importance of Western Australia
00:46to the Government's majority, it holds a couple of seats there that it didn't expect to win
00:52at the last election, and that's what got it over the line to be able to form a majority
00:59Government.
01:00So clashing with the Western Australian campaign would be a political risk for the Federal
01:08Government, and there'd have to be compelling reasons, I think, for it to want to take that
01:15risk.
01:16So most of March is also ruled out.