Perekonomian global di tahun 2025 diprediksi masih akan diliputi ketidakpastian, yang disebabkan oleh konflik geopolitik, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia, dan dampak perubahan iklim semakin memperumit keadaan.
Fluktuasi harga komoditas global terutama energi dan pangan, juga menjadi ancaman serius bagi negara yang bergantung pada impor seperti Indonesia. Di sisi lain, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara mitra dagang utama, memperburuk kondisi dengan menurunkan potensi ekspor dan investasi.
Tantangan lain yang masih membayangi situasi global adalah kondisi perekonomian global yang belum sepenuhnya pulih dari dampak pandemi COVID-19.
Berbagai dinamika situasi global ini sedikit banyak memberi dampak terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Dan oleh karena itu, diperlukan upaya kolektif dan komprehensif untuk dapat menghadapi tantangan perekonomian global tersebut supaya tetap resilien, dan tetap optimis mengalami pertumbuhan yang positif.
Fluktuasi harga komoditas global terutama energi dan pangan, juga menjadi ancaman serius bagi negara yang bergantung pada impor seperti Indonesia. Di sisi lain, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara mitra dagang utama, memperburuk kondisi dengan menurunkan potensi ekspor dan investasi.
Tantangan lain yang masih membayangi situasi global adalah kondisi perekonomian global yang belum sepenuhnya pulih dari dampak pandemi COVID-19.
Berbagai dinamika situasi global ini sedikit banyak memberi dampak terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Dan oleh karena itu, diperlukan upaya kolektif dan komprehensif untuk dapat menghadapi tantangan perekonomian global tersebut supaya tetap resilien, dan tetap optimis mengalami pertumbuhan yang positif.
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TVTranscript
00:00Rewind to the previous episode
00:20Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:22Directly from the IDX Channel Jakarta studio
00:24I, Prasetya Wibowo, am back in the Market Review program
00:28Which will tackle the issues that are the driving force of the economy in Indonesia
00:31You can watch our live stream on IDXChannel.com
00:34Without further ado, let's start the Market Review
00:47A number of challenges shape the world's economy in 2025
00:51The government continues to reflect the impact of this year's global economic factors on Indonesia
00:58Rewind to the previous episode
01:02In the midst of reducing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy on a global scale
01:06A series of new challenges shape the world's economy in 2025
01:11The risk of geopolitical impact to trade wars is predicted
01:14A number of losses will have an effect on the world's economic recovery this year
01:19Reuters report shows
01:21Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East
01:23Political problems in Germany and France
01:26As well as the future of the economy in China
01:28Also become a thing that shakes the prospects of the world economy this year
01:33In addition to the impact of climate change
01:35It is also expected to shape the global economy this year
01:40And at the moment, the policy makers and the financial market
01:42Hope all global economic leaders can overcome all these challenges
01:46And central bank governors can normalize the flower tribe
01:50However, as has been reported by the International Monetary Fund
01:54In the prospect of the latest economy
01:56Countries in the world must be prepared for uncertain times in 2025
02:03The Indonesian government continues to reflect the factors
02:05Which can affect the global economy in 2025
02:10However, the Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani said
02:11In the midst of various economic shocks that occurred over the past year
02:15The 2024 APBN was optimized as a shock absorber
02:18To protect the public
02:20As well as maintaining growth momentum
02:22And optimally supporting the development agenda
02:26And the result, the Indonesian economy continues to show
02:28Resiliency with stable economic growth
02:30Controlled inflation
02:32Trade surplus
02:34As well as the level of the flower tribe and the exchange rate
02:36Which is relatively moderate compared to other countries
02:39Various sources, IDX channel
02:51Our interesting theme this time is related to Indonesia's resilience
02:54In the midst of global economic challenges
02:56Already connected through Zoom
02:58Together with Mr. Adia Suleman
03:00He is the Chairperson of the Association of Indonesian Entrepreneurs, APINDO
03:05Hello, Mr. Adi, how are you?
03:07Good morning, Mr. Pres
03:09Yes, good morning, sir
03:10Greetings
03:11Greetings to all
03:12Okay, thank you for your time
03:14And Mr. Rian Kirianto, Senior Economist
03:17Senior and also Senior Associate Faculty of LPPI
03:21Yes, hello, how are you, Mr. Rian?
03:24Good morning, Mr. Pres
03:26Also for Mr. Adi Luqman, good morning too
03:29Good morning, Mr. Rian
03:30Okay, thank you for your time
03:32And before discussing further, Mr. Rian
03:34We will first review the global economic conditions
03:39Throughout 2024
03:41We know the dynamics are quite fluctuating, Mr. Rian
03:46Please
03:48If we look back for a moment, Mr. Pres
03:51Indeed, last 2024 can be called a global political year
04:00Because last year, there were about 70 countries
04:04That recognized the Democracy Pesta
04:07In the form of voters
04:09Both for the President, Prime Minister, and Legislative
04:13And the peak was when last November
04:16The United States managed to elect a President
04:20With the choice, one of the challengers was
04:25Donald Trump became the President of the United States
04:27For the second time, after the period of 2016-2020
04:32Now, of course, what happened last year
04:35With all the political dynamics
04:39We call it a year full of ups and downs
04:43From a geopolitical perspective
04:46This year, it still gives a kind of carryover
04:51Or a continuation of geopolitical risks in 2024
04:57Because this year, I estimate
04:59There are about 40 countries that will also elect voters
05:04One of the big countries is, I believe, Germany
05:07Then there is also Italy, I believe
05:10Even Canada, with Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister
05:15It will also color our geopolitical risks this year
05:21Indonesia, as an open country
05:26Of course, what happens in other countries
05:29It indirectly or directly will have an impact
05:33Both on the positive and negative sides
05:36At this point, the role of policymakers in the country
05:41To be able to monitor and at the same time assess
05:45What are the points of view that we can take
05:48From a positive perspective
05:50Then how do we mitigate or anticipate
05:54The potential negative impacts
05:58Especially the possibility of a kind of change in economic policy
06:04In some advanced countries, such as the United States
06:07With the victory of Donald Trump
06:10In general, last year, even though the geopolitical pressure was so great
06:15Especially because of tensions in the Middle East
06:19Then the Russian-Ukrainian war is not over yet
06:23But last year's world economic review
06:27I think it's pretty good
06:29Even though there is no official figure yet
06:32But our calculations may be 2.7% to 3.0%
06:37The world's economic growth last year
06:42And it will be capital or debt for 2025
06:47Relatively steady, between 3.0% and 3.2%
06:52Until today, the figure has not moved yet
06:54Hopefully, it will give us some kind of incentive
06:59For us to do leveraging or optimization
07:04Especially from our international trade transactions
07:08Then also from the financial path
07:10How can we increase our foreign direct investment
07:15Bigger foreign investment into the country
07:18I think that's the highlight of last year and the beginning of 2025
07:25Mr. Adi, what do you think of the current situation?
07:29With some challenges that Mr. Ariyan has mentioned
07:32From the eyes of the AAPINO business
07:34Do you see that the conditions experienced in 2024 are not much different
07:39Maybe experienced by industry players in 2025
07:44If I see, I add from Mr. Ariyan
07:48The point is geopolitics and climate change
07:53Still imagine the world
07:55If we look at geopolitics
07:57There are two very strong hubs that have a strong impact on the world
08:02In the US and Russia
08:06In trade, the US hub and the Chinese hub
08:11So this is what we should pay attention to
08:13If we look at Trump's victory this time
08:17Of course with the America First program and so on
08:21Of course this will get a strong response from China
08:27That's why Indonesia is in the middle
08:32Between the two
08:34And of course Indonesia must be smart
08:36See how we can increase cooperation
08:40Both have challenges, both have benefits
08:43And of course we have to find good opportunities
08:46If we look at America First
08:49We are very worried about trade
08:52With the GSP review and so on
08:54Which was done in 2018
08:58And fortunately we can still maintain it until now
09:01Because it was announced in 2020
09:03Indonesia is still eligible to apply for GSP
09:06But with America First, Indonesia is on the radar
09:10Because we are a trade surplus
09:12And of course this is what we have to be aware of
09:15Until our relationship with the US is better
09:20On the other hand, with China
09:22We also become a country partner for trade
09:25Which is very big
09:28Because China is the dominant country
09:31And number one or number two in Indonesia
09:34Of course we have to maintain a good relationship
09:37How can we realize this?
09:41Of course this is related to Indonesia's foreign policy
09:46Which must be continued
09:50And of course we have to find a complementary
09:54With America, we have a lot of complementaries
09:57So America needs to review
10:00If it wants to apply for GSP and so on
10:04Because there are a lot of Indonesian products
10:06That are needed by America that doesn't have
10:09On top of that, Indonesia also needs a lot of American products
10:12That we don't have
10:14Likewise, with China
10:17Of course we have to find those opportunities
10:20Mr. Adi, how about the domestic energy industry?
10:24Even though we know that our PMI manufacturer
10:26Has returned to the expansion level
10:28Can this be a strong enough foundation
10:31To face 2025?
10:33Yes, if we look at Q4
10:36Indonesia has improved in terms of trade
10:40Some sectors have increased
10:43In agriculture, food, drinks, and so on
10:47Even though the challenges in other sectors
10:49Such as textiles, garments, and footwear
10:53Are still a challenge
10:55This is also because of the impact of global trade
10:58Where China, for example
11:01I got a report
11:03That there is a huge capacity gap there
11:06So they want to find opportunities
11:08So the products can't stop in production
11:11But must be distributed
11:13Of course, Indonesia is one of the targets
11:16So I got a report
11:19That a lot of imported products
11:22Are imported to Indonesia
11:24As for food and drinks, we are still a bit lucky
11:27Because when it comes to taste
11:29When it comes to food safety
11:31And so on, we still have
11:33Also related to halal
11:35We still have experts who can limit it
11:38But for other commodities
11:40Such as shoes, footwear
11:42Garments, textiles, and so on
11:44It will be more difficult to cover it
11:46We can't prevent
11:48We can't ban
11:50Because this is WTO
11:52But we have to be smart
11:54How can we reduce
11:57Or cover it
11:59Of course, this is related to
12:01The condition of the domestic economy
12:03We really hope
12:05In the country, the government
12:07Will work with the business world
12:09To increase productivity
12:13Efficiency
12:14Reduce regulations that are very hindering
12:17So we have to reduce
12:19The very high economic costs in Indonesia
12:22Not to mention logistic costs and so on
12:24This is what we hope
12:26The government and the business world
12:28Will bring together for this
12:30That's it, we shake hands
12:32To face the year 2025
12:34How about the fundamental condition
12:36In the country itself, we will discuss
12:38In the next segment
12:39Mr. Adi, Mr. Rian, we will stop for a while
12:41Mr. Mirsa, make sure you are still with us
12:59Yes, you are still watching Market Review
13:01In the next segment, we will provide you with data
13:03Related to Indonesia's cumulative trading volume
13:06This is the period between January to November 2024
13:10You can watch the full video on your television screen
13:13How about the trading volume
13:15In January to November 2024
13:17Which is recorded at 28.86 billion US dollars
13:22Where this data dropped by about 14.1%
13:25Compared to January to November 2023
13:28Which is recorded at 33.6 billion US dollars
13:32Next, the largest trading surplus donor country
13:36For Indonesia, we see
13:38The United States is still recording
13:4015.13 billion US dollars
13:44Following India, 14.36 billion US dollars
13:47Then the Philippines, 8.2 billion US dollars
13:52This is the period between January to November 2024
13:56Next, we see the largest trading surplus donor country
14:01For Indonesia
14:03We have Brazil, Australia, and China
14:07Brazil, 344 million US dollars
14:10Australia, 321.1 million US dollars
14:14China, 283.2 million US dollars
14:19Next, we see the currency exchange rate movement
14:22Throughout January 2025
14:25Still at around 16,000 US dollars
14:29Let's continue the discussion with Mr. Arian Kirianto
14:32Economic Senior and Senior Associate Faculty
14:34Daily Institute for Banking Development Indonesia
14:36And Mr. Adies Luqman
14:38Chairperson of the Department of Trade, APINDO
14:40Mr. Arian, based on some of the data we have provided
14:45What are the steps that we need to take
14:49In terms of Indonesia's fundamental economy
14:51Is it still strong enough?
14:53Even though we know that the pressure is quite diverse
14:56The dynamics are quite strong throughout 2024
14:59But we are still able to grow by an average of 5%
15:03What do you think, sir?
15:05My review of our economy last year
15:09In 2024
15:11Maybe the growth rate forecast is around 5% to 5.03%
15:17Full year, full year
15:19But actually, if you look at the tone
15:22It leads to a weakening condition
15:25In Q1 last year, we grew by 5.11%
15:29As far as I remember, 5.11%
15:31In Q2, we grew by 5.05%
15:34Then in Q3, we grew and fell by 4.95%
15:39In Q4, our growth rate is still relatively strong
15:44Between 4.9% and 5%
15:47So in a year, we will grow by more or less 5%
15:50That is the potential or the engine of our economic growth
15:54Which is the most optimal that we can achieve
15:57With a growth rate of 5%
15:59And this happens in a period of one decade or one year
16:06But the important fact is that
16:09With a growth rate of 5% last year
16:12It turns out that we are accompanied by a very low inflation rate
16:17Since the history of Indonesian economy
16:19Last year, our inflation was 1.57%
16:23Whatever the reason, we have to say that there is indeed a weakening of the economy
16:29With a very low inflation, we can say that
16:33The level of public consumption has not risen
16:37We know that 5 months ago, we experienced a deflation or negative inflation
16:44Which clearly indicates a weakening of purchasing power
16:47In some layers of our society, especially those in the middle class
16:52Of course, this cannot continue in the year 2020
16:57Because it will carry over to this year
17:00First, Mr. Adi also pointed out that the landscape of the world economy will change
17:06With the choice of some new leaders or non-Petahana or non-incumbent
17:11For example, the President of the United States, Donald Trump
17:14Of course, it can change the constellation of the economic policy of those countries
17:19Mr. Adi was very good, he has given pressure
17:24There will almost certainly be a radical change in the policy of the United States
17:29With the tagline of the campaign, Make America Great Again, American First
17:35Then all of that is directed to protectionism
17:40The new style of Donald Trump with all his tricks
17:43Of course, this will give a kind of pressure to the US trade partners
17:50Outside Indonesia, the ones who actually enjoy surplus with the United States
17:54There are Canada, Vietnam, Mexico and also Vietnam
17:58Maybe these countries will be affected by the adjustment of their income rates to the United States
18:04Indonesia, in my opinion, we will still enjoy the GSV facilities
18:10Because even though we are surplus with the United States
18:13But if we compare it with other US trade partners
18:16We are relatively small or not dominant
18:21Then, even if there is a kind of change in policy
18:26We have to look for complementary, not substitution
18:30Substitution replaces the new market
18:33This complements the existing market with the new market
18:36Either in the Middle East or maybe in Latin America and so on
18:41That's why the data was good
18:43It turns out that our country's deficit contributor is not China, but Brazil
18:48It means that there is already a change in the orientation of our international trade policy
18:56Now, last but not least, of course, we have to observe the landscape change
19:02So that later on, we will arrange policies
19:06Both on the monetary side, on the fiscal side, on the investment side, and on the financial side
19:12It is at least pre-emptive, as well as anticipative and precise or relatively accurate
19:19If not, we will be able to, in a nutshell, we can be cheated
19:24In the sense that in designing our policy, it turns out that it is unable to respond to the change in the direction of the global economy policy
19:31That's what I mean
19:34Okay, Mr. Rian
19:35Mr. Adi, how strong is the resilience from our industry sector, especially manufacturing, in 2025
19:44With the fundamental challenges that Mr. Rian has mentioned
19:48Is this a strong enough strategy that has been prepared by industry players
19:52Even though there must be a joint effort with the government to fight together
19:57Yes, if I look at Indonesia, the product and sector variation is quite wide
20:04Not all sectors are strong, not all sectors are weak
20:08Therefore, we have to evaluate which sectors are resilient enough and which are not
20:16In my opinion, some sectors such as
20:20Maybe in Indonesia, such as mining, agriculture, food, etc. are still quite resilient
20:28But many sectors are weak
20:30Therefore, we have to evaluate which sectors need our help
20:36But the point is, I want to invite the government
20:40Not only how we think about import
20:44Okay
20:45But how we have to think like China
20:49They give extraordinary incentives to export
20:53And maybe if we remember the early 90s
20:58The government also gave an extraordinary export incentive
21:02And in the end, it can help Indonesia to increase exports and increase its deficit
21:09This is what we have to think about
21:11How policies in the country can support significant export increases
21:18We have to find points that can support it
21:22Okay
21:23Meanwhile, in Indonesia, there are a lot of non-synchronous policies
21:27For example, from the availability of raw materials
21:31Between import and local, then the DHA policy, etc.
21:38In my opinion, this weakens the spirit for export increases
21:43This is what we have to tell the government
21:48Export must be prioritized
21:52Besides, capital planting is of course very important
21:56Okay, what policies or incentives are actually wanted and more precisely targeted?
22:01Mr. Adi, we will discuss in the next segment
22:03We will be back in a moment with Mr. Ryan
22:05We will be back in a moment
22:06And our interview will soon be back after the break
22:13Indonesia's Export Incentive
22:18Indonesia's Export Incentive
22:26Thank you for joining us in Market Review
22:29Okay, let's continue
22:30Mr. Adi, if you talk about incentives, policies as desired by industry players
22:36So we can be stronger in terms of endurance, competitiveness, production
22:41As well as economic activity in general
22:44When it is contributed by the industry world
22:47Okay, because of the short time, I want to talk about the ease of business
22:53In our opinion, the ease of business still causes a high cost economy
22:58Starting from licensing OSS, SLE, PPG, etc
23:03Including UKL, UPL, etc
23:05All of these must be reviewed
23:07So that it can facilitate the business world
23:10Focus on business
23:13So that licensing is facilitated to boost our economy
23:18The second is related to industrial raw materials
23:22We have to admit that there are still a lot of industrial raw materials that must be imported
23:26We shouldn't waste time
23:29Between imports and non-imports, etc
23:31If there is no domestic availability
23:35The government should give a long-term license
23:39Between 6 to 1 year
23:41So that the business world can more widely look for alternative raw materials
23:45Which can be easier to support the increase in exports and availability in the country
23:52Then the third, as I said
23:54The incentives for export must be provided
23:57One of the things we have proposed is for example, QITE
24:00Then import to export in two stages
24:03Actually, there are a lot of companies that don't import their own raw materials
24:08But they buy from importers
24:12But these companies don't get QITE facilities
24:17Therefore, QITE in two stages needs to be revived to be discussed
24:21So that it can provide incentives for exporters to increase their efficiency
24:29And be competitive in the global market
24:32And of course, to implement the export
24:37Including government support for trade exhibitions, etc
24:43Optimize our representatives abroad to increase our exports
24:51We have to set an example for other countries that are very proactive
24:55Lately, Indonesia has been flooded with guests to increase their exports
25:00Including Indonesia
25:02Of course, we have to find a way to increase exports to the targeted countries
25:09Including emerging countries
25:11That have no impact on the global economy, etc
25:17Including the Middle East, Africa, etc
25:21Even Latin America, where our deficit is quite high
25:28Of course, we need to continue our efforts
25:31And of course, we also have to review
25:34It turns out that a lot of our FTA and CEPA
25:37Caused Indonesia to have a deficit
25:40As mentioned earlier, one of them is Australia
25:43We see that with Australia
25:45We hoped we could balance trade
25:50We have a deficit with Australia
25:53Maybe those are some of the things we have to do together
25:57Those are the various incentives that are expected
25:59In terms of efforts and government support
26:01To be able to provide support related to trade exhibitions
26:05Reduce high costs in our economy
26:08Then there is an export incentive for entrepreneurs
26:11Well, Parian, if we talk about incentives
26:14Subsidies given to the business world
26:16Then we know with the incentives that have been given
26:19There is cheap gas, in the sense of HGBT
26:22Then in the property sector, there is PPN
26:25Maybe this is also DTP, as the government is responsible
26:28And PPN-BM, the government is responsible
26:31For automotive, especially electric vehicles
26:33Which is exempted 100% throughout 2025
26:36So how about the fiscal policy that has been given
26:39The ability to support our FTA as well
26:41If there is an incentive given
26:43Will it have an impact on the country's acceptance
26:46Or will there be an expected multiplier effect?
26:51Overall, given the various incentives prepared by the government
26:58Through the fiscal path or from the central bank
27:03Through the monetary policy path
27:05And also through the policy in the financial sector
27:09Which is the domain of the financial service authority
27:12Then everything must refer to
27:15Mr. Adi has already mentioned
27:17That is how we increase the competitive advantage
27:22The term is ease of doing business
27:24We have to keep improving
27:26There are about 10 to 12 elements
27:29Within us to increase the ease of doing business
27:32So that we are able to attract foreign investment into the country
27:37And vice versa, we increase our export production
27:41Because with a good ease of doing business
27:44Of course the production costs
27:46Which is directly related to our production
27:48Becomes more efficient
27:50Then our goods will become competitive in the global market
27:55That is also relevant, Mr. Pras, Mr. Adi
27:58With our efforts to reduce our ICOR numbers
28:01This is rarely mentioned
28:03But we need to note
28:05Our incremental capital output ratio
28:08Or our ICOR is only in ASEAN
28:11As far as I know, it is the highest
28:13Our number is around 6
28:15While the average in ASEAN is 4-5%
28:18What does it mean?
28:19It means that foreign investors
28:20If they want to invest
28:22Foreign and domestic, I mean
28:23If they want to invest in Indonesia
28:25The rising costs are much more expensive
28:28Than in our neighbor country
28:30That must be noted
28:33Because no matter how much stimulus is provided
28:37By Bank Indonesia, OJK, Ministry of Finance
28:41And other ministries
28:42Including Ministry of Industry and Trade
28:45But if our ease of doing business
28:48Is still lower than our neighbor country
28:51As a result, the leverage or utilization of incentives
28:55Is not optimal
28:57Because what is much more fundamental for us to improve
29:00Is to improve our business
29:04Investments, debureaucratization, and so on
29:09That is what is realistically expected
29:12By businessmen
29:14It is reinforced by incentives
29:17Incentives are more like
29:20An additional stimulus
29:22But the most dominant stimulus
29:25Is to improve our competitiveness
29:28Through debureaucratization, deregulation
29:32Then entrepreneurship, investment, and so on
29:35So that our ICOR can go down
29:37At least we can compete with our neighbor countries
29:40Like Singapore, Thailand, or Malaysia
29:44And at least we are above Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, or Brunei Darussalam
29:49That's what I think is more fundamental
29:52That's it
29:53Some things that need to be discussed
29:54ICOR and Ease of Doing Business Indonesia
29:57That still needs to be improved in 2025
30:00Mr. Adi and Mr. Rian, thank you so much
30:02For the information, updates, and analysis
30:05Related to the global economic condition
30:07In Indonesia, and also Mr. Adi
30:10For the latest updates about the industry in Indonesia
30:13I hope it will be more advanced
30:15For the national industry sector in 2025
30:18Thank you, and good luck with your activities
30:21Mr. Adi and Mr. Rian, see you again
30:24Thank you
30:54Thank you for watching