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00:00JOSEPH CRAFT, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYST
00:04JOSEPH CRAFT, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYST
00:07JOSEPH CRAFT, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYST
00:11Good morning.
00:12Good morning.
00:13This is Nikkei Saturday News on January 11th.
00:16Let me introduce our guest for today.
00:20This is Joseph Craft, political and economic analyst.
00:24Thank you for joining us.
00:25Thank you for having me.
00:27This is Prof. Ichiro Korogi, a professor at Kanda Institute of Foreign Studies.
00:32Thank you for joining us.
00:33Thank you for having me.
00:35This is Mr. Hiroyuki Akita, a commentator for Japan Economic News.
00:42Thank you for joining us.
00:43Thank you for having me.
00:46This is the first program of the year.
00:49Let's take a look at the agenda.
00:54The first topic of the year is the foreign policy of Prime Minister Ishiba.
01:00Yes.
01:01I was thinking about what to do with the first program.
01:04Prime Minister Ishiba is going to visit Indonesia and Malaysia for the first time.
01:14So, today's topic is the foreign policy of Prime Minister Ishiba.
01:17He is going to build a good relationship between the U.S. and China.
01:22So, I wrote in the copy that it is a Chinese shift.
01:27It seems that he is very active in improving relations with China.
01:32I wonder if this will go well.
01:35I would like to think about where the assistance of Prime Minister Ishiba is.
01:43Let's take a look at the employment statistics of the U.S. in December, which was announced last night.
01:55The number of unemployed people in the non-agricultural sector, which shows the situation of the economy, increased by 256,000 compared to the previous month.
02:03It exceeded the expected number of 150,000 to 160,000.
02:08The unemployment rate was 4.1% and improved by 0.1 points from November.
02:13The average hourly wage rose by 3.9% compared to the previous year.
02:18As a result, New York Dow Jones fell by more than $750 at one time.
02:25The average hourly wage was $49,938, which is $696 cheaper than last year.
02:30It was the lowest since November 4 last year.
02:33It returned to the level just before the presidential election.
02:38Mr. Kraft, what do you think of the employment statistics?
02:41To be honest, it is a strong number.
02:44This year, the U.S. Department of Labor's interest rate was down by one percent.
02:56The stock price also fell.
02:58Another concern is that while the U.S. Department of Labor's interest rate is rising,
03:07Japan's interest rate is relatively low.
03:13If this continues, it may lead to an even lower interest rate in the 160s.
03:20I think this is something to be careful about.
03:22This year, the U.S. economy is at risk.
03:28The U.S. economy is at risk.
03:31What will happen to Trump?
03:33What will happen to inflation?
03:36How do you see that?
03:38Trump's policy is based on inflation.
03:43If this kind of strong data comes out before the election,
03:49there will be an increase in the risk of further inflation.
03:53I think this will have a big impact on the stock market.
04:01After the commercial break, let's look at the foreign policy of the Ishiba administration.
04:06On September 9, Prime Minister Ishiba arrived in Malaysia, the first foreign visit of the year.
04:18On the 10th, he met with Prime Minister Anwar.
04:36In gratitude and appreciation.
04:40He agreed to work closely with China to strengthen international order under the rule of law
04:46and strengthen maritime expansion in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.
04:55For our Japanese foreign ministry,
04:58strengthening the cooperation between Asia and the South China Sea is one of the top priorities.
05:10On the afternoon of the 10th, he arrived in Indonesia.
05:13Today, he held a meeting with President Prabowo
05:17to build a trustworthy relationship between the two leaders
05:21and to confirm the strengthening of cooperation in the field of security guarantees.
05:29In October last year, he held a meeting on ASEAN.
05:35In November, he attended the APEC summit.
05:39This year, he is the prime minister of Ishiba.
05:45The most noteworthy meeting was with President Trump of the United States.
05:53In December last year,
05:55Trump said in a press conference the day after he met with Prime Minister Abe's wife, Ms. Akie,
06:00that if the Japanese side wanted, they could meet before the inauguration ceremony.
06:07However, Prime Minister Ishiba said that
06:09it would be meaningful for Mr. Trump to have a proper conversation after the inauguration ceremony,
06:16so he is adjusting the meeting to be held in February.
06:22In December, he met with Mr. Trump.
06:26Prime Minister Ishiba asked him for advice.
06:30Trump's new administration is about to start.
06:34We met last month,
06:39and we talked about various topics.
06:44Prime Minister Ishiba talked about Mr. Trump in the Japanese-style Sunday Salon
06:49which was recorded on the 8th.
06:53It's like we know each other's interests.
06:56In other words, it's a win-win situation.
06:59Trump should know that he has to do that.
07:08The Japanese-US relationship is at stake.
07:11What kind of relationship will Prime Minister Ishiba build with President Trump?
07:19What will happen to the Japanese-Chinese relationship?
07:23At the Japanese-Chinese Summit in November last year,
07:26they agreed to cooperate comprehensively based on strategic mutual relations.
07:34Then, on November 22,
07:37China announced that it would resume the visa exemption for Japanese citizens from the end of November.
07:47In December, Foreign Minister Iwaya visited China
07:51and had a meeting with Prime Minister Wang Qigai.
07:57They announced that they would establish a ten-year visa for the rich,
08:02and that they would meet the demand for the Chinese visa,
08:07and that they would improve the Japanese-Chinese relationship.
08:12However, the details of the incident in September were not made public.
08:22The importation of Japanese-made products suspended due to the nuclear water issue has not been resumed.
08:31There are still a number of issues between Japan and China, such as the issue of both seas and air.
08:41What will happen to Prime Minister Ishiba's visa exemption?
08:47Today, we will discuss these three issues.
08:50First, let's take a look at the foreign policy of the Ishiba administration.
08:55Let's look at the serious risks that the international political scientist Ian Bremer is leading,
08:59and that the Eurasia Group is announcing at the beginning of the year every year.
09:04The first is the deepening of the G-Zero relationship.
09:08G-Zero is a situation in which a country that leads the international order does not exist.
09:14And the second is Trump's rule.
09:17The members of the second Trump administration, who will be born this month,
09:20are likely to be subjected to Trumpism,
09:23and the supervision of power and the rule of law may be weakened.
09:28And the third is the U.S.-China relationship.
09:30The fourth is the Trump mix.
09:32It is pointed out that the influx of tariffs and the lack of labor will increase the pressure on inflation,
09:37and will undermine the strength of the economy.
09:40And if you look at the others,
09:42Russia, Iran, and the confrontation between the United States and Mexico,
09:46which have been cornered, have been raised.
09:49It seems that there are many risks related to Trump's next president.
09:54Mr. Korogi, where do you pay attention first?
09:57Last time, I think the first place was Russia,
10:03and the second place was Xi Jinping, where power is concentrated.
10:07This time, it's Trump.
10:11The U.S.-China relationship is included,
10:14but apart from this, the impact it has on Japan is also mentioned in the report.
10:18Looking at it, Japan is sandwiched between China and the United States,
10:23and it's going to be a difficult win-win situation.
10:27The economic relationship between China and Japan is very deep,
10:32but the security guarantees are completely hostile.
10:35It's a pretty difficult situation, isn't it?
10:38The third one.
10:41Mr. Akita, what do you think?
10:43Well, if you add it all up,
10:46one thing I can say is that this year,
10:49in 1938, by the Munich Treaty,
10:52the Nazis in Germany at the time,
10:55the British and the French recognized that they would conquer Czechoslovakia.
11:01The next year, the Nazis invaded Poland,
11:04and it became World War II.
11:07I think it's become a year that is equivalent to that.
11:12Specifically, Russia invaded Ukraine under international law,
11:19and if they were to lose,
11:22the clock wouldn't have turned.
11:25But if Trump hurries to settle the war,
11:29and in fact, a favorable form of settlement is recognized by Russia,
11:33then in 1938, the Nazis in Germany
11:38recognized that they would conquer Czechoslovakia,
11:43and I'm worried that it would be equivalent to that.
11:47When I went to the international conference last year,
11:50in fact, at the unofficial venue,
11:53the teachings of 1938 were discussed in private
11:56especially among European politicians and scholars.
12:01On the other hand, when Trump talks to Putin,
12:05he has to stop the whole thing from going in the direction of Ukraine.
12:11At the time, the British Prime Minister was Chancellor Chamberlain,
12:14and when he and the Nazis in 1938
12:17made peace, they conquered Czechoslovakia.
12:21At one point, he was praised as a hero who prevented war,
12:25who prevented World War II.
12:28I think it's important for Trump to settle the war
12:33so that such a history will not remain.
12:36I think he should settle the war as soon as possible.
12:39I want him to negotiate so that it will be a favorable form of settlement for Ukraine.
12:44Mr. Kraft, what do you think?
12:46Yes, I agree with Mr. Akita.
12:49In the conjecture of the Eurasia Group,
12:52the G-Zero world is the deepest.
12:55After the collapse of the Soviet Union,
12:58the word order of the new world appeared.
13:02If you say this G-Zero again,
13:05it is the ignorance of the next generation.
13:09In other words, if there is no leader-like existence of one country,
13:13or if there is no country with the expected power,
13:17it is easy for everyone to become a power struggle.
13:20In such a situation, it is easier for wars and territorial disputes to occur.
13:28In such a situation, I personally wonder how the issue of Ukraine will affect Taiwan.
13:34This is Mr. Korogi's field of expertise,
13:37but this year I call it the year of Taiwan independence.
13:41The tension of Taiwan unification for 2027,
13:46I don't think anything concrete will happen,
13:49but I think it will be a year of increasing tension and confrontation for Taiwan unification.
13:58At the beginning of the year that may be the end of history,
14:03the first country to visit was Malaysia and Indonesia.
14:07This is the beginning of the Shiba Express.
14:09That's right.
14:10I will check the schedule of the Shiba Express since I took office in October last year.
14:15So far, I have attended the ASEAN-related summit, the APEC summit, and the G20 summit.
14:22And this is the first foreign visit to Malaysia and Indonesia without an international conference.
14:29In addition, the Japan-China-Japan exchange conference will be held for the first time in seven years.
14:34The delegation, led by the Prime Minister of the People's Republic of China,
14:37will be dispatched to Beijing, China, and will visit with a letter from Prime Minister Xi.
14:42And at the inauguration ceremony of President Trump on the 20th, Foreign Minister Iwai will attend.
14:48In February, President Trump and Japan and the U.S. will hold a summit.
14:54In addition, we are planning to invite major foreign ministers from China.
14:58We plan to hold a summit between Japan and China after spring.
15:03And let's take a look at this year's ASEAN history.
15:07On the 10th, I met with Prime Minister Anwar of Malaysia, which is this year's ASEAN member state.
15:12In order to realize the free and open Indo-Pacific, we agreed on strengthening cooperation in the safety insurance sector.
15:19In addition, we exchanged views on further cooperation in the stable supply of LNG and the depletion of carbon.
15:25And today, I am scheduled to meet with President Prabowo of Indonesia.
15:31In the coming year, Japan and Indonesia will hold a two-plus-two conference on foreign affairs and defense.
15:39In addition, we are aiming for free and open cooperation in the high-speed security system.
15:44Mr. Kurato, why did Prime Minister Ishiba choose these two countries in the first place?
15:50The relationship between Japan and ASEAN is very important.
15:56Mr. Suga, Mr. Abe, and Mr. Kishida also chose ASEAN as the first foreign minister.
16:04Another reason is that there is no time difference in terms of logic.
16:09Also, Japan is a friendly country.
16:13I think it is a wise choice as the first foreign minister.
16:19I think it is good to start from a place where there is not much risk.
16:25Mr. Akita, what do you think?
16:27If I were to take a step back, the world is surrounded by the United States, China, and other friendly countries.
16:41They are having a power struggle.
16:44In addition, Indonesia and Malaysia are the two weakest friendly countries in Asia.
16:54In other words, if these two countries go to the other side, the color of Asia will change.
17:01What I mean is that Indonesia is the largest Muslim country, and Malaysia is also a Muslim country.
17:09As a result of the war in Gaza in Israel, there is a lot of rebellion in the Muslim world.
17:17If you look at the public opinion polls in both countries, the public opinion that it is better to form an alliance with China than with the United States has resulted in a lower number of votes.
17:26In the case of Gaza in Israel, isn't there a little bit of a rebellion against the United States?
17:31Prime Minister Awad was in talks with Hamas leaders last year.
17:37Therefore, I think it was a good choice to choose two such countries and go out.
17:53Mr. Korogi, what do you think?
17:56After all, Indonesia has joined the Chinese-Russian group.
18:06Malaysia and Thailand also want to join the group.
18:09Malaysia is also an observer now.
18:12This is one reason.
18:13After all, the global south is a hot topic right now, and it's not good if you don't keep up with it.
18:21So, suddenly, there are a lot of cases in the United States and China.
18:25In the United States, there are cases of Trump and Mr. Ishiba.
18:28In China, there are a lot of cases in China.
18:31But Indonesia and Malaysia are relatively easy to work with each other.
18:36It's a good feeling for a debut.
18:39Plus, Indonesia has joined BRICS.
18:43That's what I'm worried about.
18:45This is also conscious of China and Russia.
18:49There's another one, LNG.
18:52Japan is now 9% of the LNG supply from Russia to the Sahara.
18:58It's pretty big.
19:00I don't know what's going to happen in the future.
19:03LNG supply is also necessary.
19:07Overall, energy security insurance is a good choice.
19:13That's what I feel.
19:15On the other hand, this is the way of thinking about whether to go to the United States or not.
19:20Yes, there were a lot of things.
19:22On December 15th last year, when Mr. Akie met with Trump,
19:27Mr. Trump said he would like to meet with Prime Minister Ishiba.
19:31The Trump administration said it withdrew from office in January of this year.
19:37Prime Minister Ishiba made the decision in February.
19:40The reason for this is that after the inauguration of the president,
19:44Japan should be able to think about what to do with Ukraine and North Korea.
19:52In addition, Mr. Trump also said that he should win-win with each other
19:58about Mr. Trump's foreign policy at the BS Teleton Sunday Salon tomorrow.
20:04However, Mr. Trump is meeting with foreign ministers from various countries,
20:08such as Canada, France, Italy, and Ukraine.
20:11Mr. Kraft, how do you see the result of meeting with Mr. Trump
20:17after his inauguration?
20:22I don't think it's a bad thing.
20:25What's important is not when we meet, but what we talk about.
20:30I think it would be more meaningful if we had time to prepare for that.
20:40I don't think it's a problem that we were able to postpone it.
20:45However, looking at Mr. Ishiba's various statements,
20:49I can't get the impression that he is talking about a specific plan with Trump.
20:57It's not good to wait until we know what he's thinking about Ukraine.
21:04I don't think Mr. Trump thinks that we should win-win with each other
21:11if we have a more proactive attitude to discuss what we should do.
21:17We need to decide how to get information.
21:21I don't think Japan is aiming for strategic things
21:28that Japan is not aiming for.
21:34I'm a little worried about that.
21:38You're not thinking about Japan's win?
21:40No, I'm not.
21:41I think that's a good thing.
21:42Japan should think about its own win, but I don't know if it's a good strategy.
21:46Mr. Akita, as Mr. Kraft pointed out,
21:49you said that you should meet with Mr. Trump after the U.S. has decided on Ukraine.
21:56From Mr. Akita's point of view,
21:59I'm a little disappointed that you're not thinking about how to handle the U.S. on Ukraine
22:03and what kind of opinion you're going to give to Japan.
22:11I don't think it's a good idea to meet as soon as possible, just like Mr. Kraft.
22:16However, this statement is the exact opposite.
22:19It's easier to talk after the U.S. has decided on Ukraine.
22:25Rather, it's extremely important to input before the U.S. has decided on Ukraine.
22:34It's the same with the North Korea issue.
22:36In that sense, I think it's better to make an effort to put these thoughts together
22:44as soon as possible before the U.S. has decided on Ukraine.
22:49There was one person I was concerned about in the Ishiba administration.
22:54He has been in the center of foreign security guarantees since the Abe administration.
23:06This includes negotiations with North Korea.
23:09Mr. Takeo Akiba is going to resign from the Department of State Security.
23:16Mr. Akiba will be reinstated as the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs.
23:22This is also the day when President Trump will be inaugurated.
23:26Mr. Kraft, what do you think about this?
23:28Mr. Akiba used to be a very good director.
23:33However, he has been popular for a long time,
23:36so people around him have been saying that it's time for him to resign.
23:40Mr. Akiba is also a very good secretary.
23:44I don't think his resignation will have a negative impact on the U.S.-Japan relationship.
23:51However, I personally have the impression that he is at a distance from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
23:58the Department of State Security, and the House of Representatives.
24:08For example, when I meet Mr. Son or hear his recent remarks,
24:16I have the impression that he is not good at negotiating with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the House of Representatives.
24:25After the commercial break, let's see what happens to the U.S.-Japan relationship after President Trump is inaugurated.
24:38Next, let's take a look at how to respond to Trump-style deals.
24:43Here is what President Trump will demand from Japan.
24:50It is seen that he is looking for direct investment and import of agricultural products from Japan,
24:54such as increasing the burden of defense spending.
24:57In addition, it seems that the theme of the future will be the contribution to the semiconductor industry,
25:02such as raising tariffs, importing energy such as oil and LNG, etc.
25:07Mr. Krafft, what do you think?
25:09For Japan, this is not necessarily a pinch.
25:13There are many opportunities.
25:15For example, why does Trump want to raise tariffs in the first place?
25:20The reason is that he wants direct investment in the U.S.
25:25He wants to meet the needs of the U.S.
25:28Japan has naturally invested directly in the U.S.
25:34In the past few years, Japan has been the number one in the world, right?
25:36Yes, it is the number one.
25:37Mr. Abe also appealed to Trump that Japan has invested so much in the U.S.
25:46If Japan does this well, Trump will see Japan as an effective country.
25:51And energy.
25:52This is not a wish.
25:54President Biden didn't sell LNG or shale gas, but Japan has a demand for it.
26:01I think it is very effective for Japan to appeal to Trump.
26:12Mr. Akita, what do you think?
26:14For Japan, this is not necessarily a pinch.
26:18There are many opportunities.
26:20However, what Mr. Ishiba should have said when he first met Trump was
26:28As Japan, we really want to support you to make the U.S. great again.
26:34We want you to be great in the U.S.
26:36At the same time, we want to be even greater with the U.S. as an ally.
26:40So, we will do everything we can to realize your MAGA, Make America Great Again.
26:49In this way, the expansion of U.S. energy exports and the improvement of the U.S. economy are good for Japan.
26:59However, I think it is best to approach the scenario of Japan being favored by the U.S.
27:06Rather than give and take, I think it is best to approach it with the phrase of becoming great together.
27:14I think that fits Trump's DNA the most.
27:18I wonder if Mr. Ishiba himself can do that approach.
27:22There are some uncertain elements.
27:25Yes.
27:26In December of last year, Mr. Ishiba sought advice from Prime Minister Aso, who met with Mr. Trump in April.
27:36This is published by Jiji News.
27:38According to it, Mr. Aso said that Mr. Trump should make a conclusion first.
27:43On the other hand, Mr. Ishiba said he was not good at that.
27:48In December of last year, Mr. Ishiba met with Mr. Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Florida,
27:53where he met with President Masayoshi Son of SoftBank Group,
27:58who promised to invest $1 trillion in the U.S. for four years.
28:02Foreign Minister Iwaya and Minister of Economic Affairs Mutoh also met and exchanged views.
28:07After the meeting, Mr. Son said that he wanted Mr. Ishiba to tell Mr. Trump that the relationship between Japan and the U.S. is important.
28:16Mr. Kraut, Mr. Trump is a businessman.
28:20In the business world, it is natural to make a conclusion first.
28:24But he said he was not good at that.
28:26In other words, he doesn't have a deal or a strategy against Trump.
28:33It is easy to make a conclusion if you make it in advance and meet.
28:40But if you meet without a deal, you don't know what the conclusion will be.
28:45The important thing is to show Trump what kind of deal is important to Japan.
28:52As Mr. Akita said earlier,
28:54I think the problem is that we can't show each other's plan to make each other's country profitable.
29:07Mr. Korogi, what do you think so far?
29:09Well, Mr. Ishiba is a bit of an intellectual.
29:14He published a paper called Asian version of NATO.
29:18When I read it, I thought that he wanted to create an equal environment with the U.S.
29:23But he published a paper.
29:26Then, I think he will be in trouble.
29:29Trump doesn't think so.
29:31In fact, he wants to increase the burden on Japan.
29:34Also, according to Chinese media,
29:36Mr. Ishiba is a disciple of Mr. Tanaka.
29:40So, he wants to strengthen the relationship with China.
29:44In other words, he wants to keep a distance from the U.S. in an equal relationship.
29:51China is looking forward to it.
29:55So, as I said earlier,
29:57we have to meet in person and talk.
30:02As I said earlier,
30:04I don't want to talk to him through the official website.
30:09I see.
30:10Mr. Trump doesn't like that.
30:11At least, since China is taking it that way,
30:13we have to meet as soon as possible and tell him that the U.S. is number one.
30:19As I said earlier,
30:22Mr. Son of SoftBank went to school in the U.S.
30:27I think he was in high school.
30:30What I thought was the opposite of China.
30:35Jack Ma of Alibaba was fired because he met Trump first.
30:42Oh, I see.
30:44He was fired because he met Trump first.
30:48He was fired because he was a member of a private company.
30:51Look at Japan.
30:52They don't listen to me.
30:54I see.
30:55Japan is a good country.
30:57It has a strong civil power.
30:59But, in a sense,
31:02Mr. Son should be the prime minister.
31:06When he goes out with the U.S. or China,
31:10he might be the one to go first.
31:12Mr. Kraut, you know Mr. Son very well.
31:15At first, you said you would support Jack Ma.
31:21But, later on, you found out that it wasn't true.
31:26That's right.
31:28Mr. Son is appealing to the U.S.
31:31He says he is teaching him.
31:33He says he has a strong sense of presence.
31:35In the U.S., Mr. Kraut spreads the word about Jack Ma.
31:38But, there is one thing you need to learn.
31:40For example, Japan has been investing in the U.S.
31:44since the beginning of the 20th century.
31:47Japan is contributing to Trump.
31:51SoftBank is also a Japanese company.
31:53So, we need to look at the whole picture.
31:55That's right.
31:56It's not bad for Mr. Son to collect information.
32:00But, personally,
32:01it's not the prime minister or the foreign minister
32:03who should go out.
32:05It's the foreign ministry or the prime minister's office
32:08who should gather information,
32:10absorb it,
32:11and make use of it for the strategy of the prime minister.
32:13I think that's the way it should be.
32:15That's why we need to feel the distance
32:18between the foreign ministry and the prime minister.
32:21But, Mr. Son,
32:23if it weren't for Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Iwai,
32:25you wouldn't have met.
32:26Maybe.
32:27I see.
32:28What I'm most curious about is what will happen
32:30when it comes to tariffs.
32:32That's right.
32:33During the presidential election,
32:35Mr. Trump,
32:3760% of all products in China,
32:39and 10% to 20% of products in other countries
32:41except China,
32:42were said to be tariffed.
32:44After the election,
32:45Mexico and Canada were declared
32:47to be tariffed by 25%,
32:50but not by countries around the world.
32:53However, CNN in America on the 8th
32:56said that Mr. Trump was considering
32:58tariffing on all products
33:00based on the International Emergency Economic Restriction Act.
33:06In other words,
33:07without going through the Congress,
33:09without any troublesome procedure,
33:11he is looking for a legal framework
33:13where he can freely raise tariffs
33:15under the presidency of the president.
33:17Based on that movement,
33:19Mr. Akita,
33:20it seems that he is still thinking
33:22about the one-state tariff.
33:25Well,
33:26this is a picture of the Trump administration
33:30and the exchange he was doing
33:34as a close associate of President Trump.
33:38The way he thinks changes overnight.
33:41For example,
33:42now he is buying Greenland
33:45and Panama.
33:47Perhaps,
33:48the leadership that Mr. Trump is thinking of
33:52is a wake-up call type of leadership.
33:56He says things that people don't realize,
34:00shakes things up,
34:02and he raises tariffs
34:04to lead to the best results.
34:06I think he is doing this
34:08as a form of leadership.
34:10I don't think it's a policy.
34:12So,
34:13the tariff,
34:14he says a lot of things,
34:16but in the end,
34:17I think he will decide
34:18based on various reactions.
34:20To be honest,
34:21I don't know the conclusion.
34:23It may change overnight.
34:25So,
34:26as I mentioned earlier,
34:29rather than having a close associate
34:33and negotiating after he starts,
34:37he should be the president of an owner company.
34:41This time,
34:42the Trump administration
34:44is not a Japanese-type organization
34:47like Toyota or Nissan.
34:49It's a complete owner company.
34:51And it's not a manufacturer.
34:53So,
34:54he should be the president of a real estate company.
34:58And one thing I'm curious about
35:00is the U.S. steel issue.
35:02Yes.
35:03Let's take a look at this.
35:05President Biden did not approve
35:07of the U.S. steel procurement plan
35:09against the United States.
35:11President Biden said
35:12it would put the U.S. national security insurance
35:15and supply chain at risk.
35:17On the other hand,
35:18Prime Minister Ishiba said
35:20he strongly wanted to respond
35:22to the concern of the U.S. investment.
35:24Prime Minister Ishiba said
35:26it was extremely unfortunate
35:28that the procurement was suspended
35:30due to the concern of the U.S. insurance.
35:32Prime Minister Muto said
35:34it was extremely unfortunate
35:36and difficult to understand.
35:38He said it was extremely important
35:40for companies to be able to invest
35:42with confidence in the environment.
35:44And about the procurement,
35:46President Trump said
35:49he was opposed to it.
35:51Mr. Kraft,
35:52the Japanese steel industry
35:54has come out in support
35:56of the U.S. president
35:58of the U.S.
36:00What do you think?
36:02I understand the Japanese steel industry's position,
36:05but the fundamental problem is
36:07that the international market
36:09has a political risk.
36:11And how to overcome that
36:13is one of the challenges
36:15and responsibilities of the procurement industry.
36:17The reason I'm concerned
36:19about President Trump's procurement
36:21is that in 2014,
36:23a Chinese company
36:25procured President Obama
36:27on the same issue of CFIUS.
36:29Until then,
36:31the first phase of the Obama administration
36:33was more or less in the middle.
36:35While it was gradually
36:37moving towards China,
36:39President Obama was personally
36:41procured,
36:43so it was more in the middle.
36:45It was more in the middle.
36:47It was more in the middle.
36:49It was more in the middle.
36:51It was more in the middle.
36:53So, in that sense,
36:55the Trump administration
36:57may think that
36:59they are good at
37:01procuring Biden,
37:03or that they are good
37:05at procuring the president.
37:07I think we should
37:09pay attention to this
37:11because it is an action
37:13that is not a matter of
37:15the Trump administration.
37:17It's different from the Obama administration
37:19because it is a change
37:21from the Trump administration.
37:23That's right.
37:25So, I'm not sure
37:27if it's a good thing
37:29that Trump
37:31is claiming Biden.
37:33It's possible,
37:35but unfortunately,
37:37the US procurement issue
37:39was not so much
37:41the US procurement issue
37:43but the fact that Japanese companies
37:45are procuring the US president
37:47all over the world.
37:49So, I'm not sure
37:51what's going on.
37:53So, I'm not sure
37:55what's going on.
37:57I'm not sure
37:59what's going on.
38:01I'm not sure
38:03what's going on.
38:05I'm not sure
38:07what's going on.
38:11I'm not sure
38:13what's going on.
38:41Mr. Korogi,
38:43compared to the previous administration,
38:45the Ishiba administration
38:47seems to be more active
38:49in improving relations
38:51with China.
38:53What do you think
38:55about this?
38:57Mr. Korogi,
38:59compared to the previous administration,
39:01the Ishiba administration
39:03seems to be more active
39:05in improving relations
39:07with China.
39:09What do you think about this?
39:11What do you think about this?
39:13What do you think about this?
39:15The Chinese side
39:17has been in a place of exchange
39:19since the beginning.
39:21The key word is
39:23a disciple of the Tanaka family.
39:25This word is flying around.
39:27Mr. Ishiba is a disciple of the Tanaka family,
39:29so he can return to the Japanese high school
39:31and the Japanese high school
39:33and the Japanese high school
39:35and Japanese high school
39:37and Japanese high school
39:39as soon as possible.
39:41The Foreign Minister
39:43was happy to see
39:45the Japanese high school return to China.
39:47The Japanese high school
39:49and the American high school
39:51will continue to support
39:53Japan-US alliance
39:55and strengthen the Japanese-Chinese alliance.
39:57I'm looking forward to that.
39:59But what will American people think?
40:01That's another story.
40:03I see.
40:05At first, I was expecting a lot from Mr. Kishida.
40:09I thought he was going to go for the Hato-ha.
40:11Mr. Abe was going to go for the Takaha.
40:13I thought Mr. Kishida was going to go for the Hato-ha,
40:15but that wasn't the case.
40:18He was going to go head-to-head with the U.S. and compete with China.
40:22I don't know what's going to happen in the future,
40:24but that's how I see it at the moment.
40:26Mr. Akita, as Mr. Koroi just said,
40:29how does the U.S. view this situation?
40:31Mr. Trump himself,
40:33along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio,
40:35and Secretary of State Waltz,
40:37who is in charge of national security,
40:39is in a pretty tough position.
40:42In a way, I think they have sympathy for Japan.
40:47The current Ishiba administration,
40:49I wouldn't say it's a shift,
40:51but the U.S. is probably important,
40:53but it's also very active in improving relations with China.
40:55Does the U.S. have any concerns about this?
41:00I don't think the U.S. wants Japan to go head-to-head
41:05and become tense in the Taiwan Strait.
41:07Of course, we don't want that to happen.
41:11So, the bottom line is,
41:13I think the Washingtonians understand
41:16that Japan is trying to remove various obstacles
41:19in order to build a stable relationship with China.
41:27But the problem is,
41:28if you look at it from the Chinese point of view,
41:30to put it simply,
41:32China's foreign policy is one strategy,
41:35and other measures.
41:37There is only one strategy,
41:39and that is the US-Japan strategy.
41:42How to deal with the U.S. is,
41:44to put it extremely, a big strategy.
41:47I think they see how other countries' relations
41:50can be useful for that big strategy
41:52as a cumulative function.
41:55Of course, if you look at it in more detail,
41:58they are thinking about how to change
42:00the bilateral relations with Japan.
42:02But basically, they are thinking about
42:04how to use it to capture the U.S.
42:07to reverse the situation and improve relations with Japan.
42:10For example, Australia, Europe,
42:13and even Africa.
42:16So, if you look at it from the U.S. point of view,
42:18when the Xi Jinping regime is pointing that kind of chess,
42:22I think they don't want Japan to move
42:25in a way that fits that strategy.
42:28What do you think, Mr. Kraft?
42:30This is similar to what Mr. Akita said,
42:33but I would like to add something.
42:36The U.S. Secretary of State,
42:38under the Biden administration,
42:40said in December of last year,
42:43that while the U.S. welcomes Japan-China relations
42:47to become better,
42:50in my personal opinion,
42:53the U.S. is a bit ahead of the Ishiba administration.
42:58If this is replaced by the Trump administration,
43:01looking at it from the perspective of the right-wing,
43:04Japan is a bit ahead of the U.S.
43:07when it comes to China-U.S. relations.
43:10If this is misinterpreted,
43:13it will be a complicated fracture.
43:16That's what I heard.
43:18One of the things that is being talked about
43:21is the exchange of visas.
43:24This is a measure taken by the Chinese side
43:27to restore the short-term stay visa for Japanese tourists
43:31to its original state before the pandemic.
43:35The Japanese side has made a number of exchanges
43:38for visas for Chinese tourists.
43:41For example,
43:43establishing a 10-year multi-visa period,
43:47extending the stay period for tourist visas
43:50from the 15th to the 30th,
43:52and so on.
43:55Mr. Korogi, recently,
43:58there has been a lot of criticism
44:01from conservative members of the People's Party
44:04that there was no pre-emptive measure.
44:07What do you think about this?
44:12I've been watching this for a long time.
44:15It took a long time for Japan
44:18to get back to its original state.
44:22It's true that in Europe
44:24and other major Asian countries,
44:26it was done much earlier.
44:28That's right.
44:29Countries that had bad relations with China
44:31were left behind.
44:32I thought they were doing it.
44:34I thought they were doing it.
44:36It's the same with the issue of short-term stay.
44:38So, they were doing it as a card.
44:40As a Japanese scientist,
44:42it's troublesome to go to China for business.
44:45So, I think it's welcome to have a long-term stay.
44:47Also, as a response from the Japanese side,
44:50the Chinese side said that
44:52they wanted to have a long-term stay.
44:54They wanted to have a more intense conversation.
44:56They wanted to be equal.
44:58That's impossible.
45:00So, the Japanese side
45:02put a price on it.
45:04Also, the 10-year extension
45:07is for the rich.
45:09So, it's for the rich.
45:11Yes, it's for the rich.
45:13In that sense,
45:15the fact that they want the rich to invest more and more in Japan
45:17is actually happening.
45:19Whether it's real estate or not.
45:21So, what China wanted the most
45:23was the mutual exemption.
45:25If they did that,
45:27Hong Kong would be on the brake
45:29to come in from China.
45:31It would be a big deal.
45:33That's what China wanted.
45:35It was an unreasonable demand.
45:37So, the Chinese side
45:39didn't give up.
45:41They said,
45:43yes, it's a valid relationship.
45:45Let's make it valid from now on.
45:47It was like a gift.
45:49But, on the other hand,
45:51I don't think it was a great service to Japan.
45:53I think it was too late.
45:55I think it was too late.
45:57I think it was too late.
45:59I think it was too late.
46:01I think it was too late.
46:03I think it was too late.
46:05I think it was too late.
46:07I think it was too late.
46:09I think it was too late.
46:11I think it was too late.
46:13I think it was too late.
46:15I think it was too late.
46:17I think it was too late.
46:19I think it was too late.
46:21I think it was too late.
46:23I think it was too late.
46:25I think it was too late.
46:27I think it was too late.
46:29I think it was too late.
46:31I think it was too late.
46:33Is the current Ishiba government
46:35properly conveying what it should say to China?
46:37Is it conveyed here?
46:39The mistake in the announcement was a problem.
46:41When the Foreign Minister Iwaya
46:43made the announcement in China,
46:45he apologized.
46:47He apologized.
46:49He expressed his deep regret
46:51and apology from his heart
46:53in the Murayama Dialogue.
46:55But Japan didn't say that.
46:57I saw both announcements.
46:59It's completely different.
47:01Is that so?
47:03It's not like that.
47:05But if it was written as if
47:07they didn't say anything,
47:09it would be a problem,
47:11so Japan protested.
47:13But what I was most concerned about
47:15was that another V was found
47:17at the timing of the announcement.
47:19When Mr. Nikai went there,
47:21there was no Ryokushinpan.
47:23That's why they don't usually
47:25do this kind of thing.
47:27I was a little underestimated.
47:29But if you look at it in order,
47:31Japan is ahead of China.
47:33Last year,
47:35Foreign Minister Hayashi
47:37went to Japan.
47:39Japan is ahead of China.
47:41So what China is reporting
47:43is that
47:45they are putting a lot of emphasis
47:47on China.
47:49So we have to be patient.
47:51Also,
47:53it's a matter of processing water.
47:55Processing water is still
47:57processing water.
47:59It's processing water.
48:01They say they will reopen
48:03the fisheries,
48:05but they call it the same way.
48:07They don't say processing water
48:09even if they avoid it.
48:11But processing water is the cause
48:13of the propaganda.
48:15For example,
48:17a stone was thrown
48:19into a Japanese school.
48:21They say,
48:23stop saying processing water.
48:25I see.
48:27If we don't cut those cards,
48:29it will be very easy for Japan.
48:31We're running out of time,
48:33so here's a commercial.
48:35This is the Konato Market.
48:41Our guest for tomorrow's
48:43Nikkei Sunday Salon is
48:45Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
48:47We will ask him questions
48:49about the relationship
48:51between the United States
48:53and Japan.
48:55Here's the market.