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00:00The best game on this board is going to come a little bit later today between Minnesota
00:09and Green Bay.
00:11And let me just tell you this, if by some chance you out there still think the NFL fixed
00:16his games, bet Minnesota and go to sleep.
00:20Because boy do they hope the Vikings win this game.
00:22So they get their Sunday nighter, week 18, winners the one seed in Minnesota, Detroit,
00:28loser goes to the five.
00:30Because otherwise, week 18 is going to look a little rough in terms of clenching scenarios
00:36here.
00:37But for the Minnesota Vikings, they are a favorite, not by a lot.
00:43Lane just one, one and a half in some spots.
00:46You though Donnie, believe we will get the week 18 drama.
00:50You like the Vikings in this game.
00:51I do, and I don't understand to be honest why the line is this low.
00:54Now granted, algorithms go into it, they're not just making lines up, they're there for
00:58a reason I have to say.
00:59But it seems like all season long, it's like, well, we'll just wait on Minnesota, maybe
01:03they can get hot at this point.
01:04Like, they're one of the best teams in football and not priced accordingly in this game.
01:08And if you are looking at the Green Bay Packers, yes, they're a good team.
01:11But heading into the season, Green Bay felt like, Joe, it was going to be that darling
01:15team that everybody loves to bet and everybody's like, just wait until Green Bay gets to the
01:19playoffs.
01:20And all the while in this division, all the way through, it's always been Detroit on the
01:23top of the staff here.
01:24And then you talked about Green Bay.
01:26Nobody was talking about Minnesota.
01:27No, I say nobody.
01:28Of course, people were bringing them up, but not on the stage that those two teams are.
01:32And I see that line today, opened up at one and a half, still sits at one and a half.
01:35And I have to say, what am I missing here?
01:37Well, I just think it's perception, number one.
01:40The first time they played, it was a two point game, 31 to 29.
01:43That was the first time that Jordan Love did get hurt.
01:45He came back.
01:47He was a little rusty.
01:48Sam Donald in that offense built 28-0 first half lead.
01:52That was the game Jordan Love in the fourth quarter comes back.
01:55He throws for 389 in the fourth quarter.
01:57Almost pulls it out.
01:58They lose by two points, right?
02:00And I just think that his injuries played into why we're not looking or why Green Bay
02:06was maybe pushed to the side.
02:09And you look at Minnesota and you look at Detroit, respectively.
02:13Minnesota's done it.
02:14They just win.
02:15They've won eight straight games, Donny, by 8.6 points per game.
02:18They're a 7-1 home football team.
02:20Only six true home games.
02:22One win came against the New York Jets.
02:25Obviously in Europe, but they've won those six games in terms of Minneapolis by an average
02:29margin of victory of 13.5 points per game.
02:32They are a dominant home team.
02:34So when you see the one and a half number, you do scratch a little bit.
02:37But it is a divisional opponent.
02:39Green Bay's healthy.
02:40You have the emergence of Josh Jacobs.
02:42He only had 53 rushing yards in terms of the first matchup.
02:46And you have an elite plate caller in terms of Matt LeFleur and Jordan Love.
02:50If we put the two quarterbacks head-to-head and we say Darnold and Jordan Love, as great
02:55as Sam Darnold's playing, you could say Jordan Love could go toe-to-toe with him at any given
02:59time.
03:00So I think that's what you're seeing in terms of the one and a half point number.
03:03I do feel Minnesota tries to take away Josh Jacobs today.
03:08And that's where I do feel Jordan Love exposes them over the top.
03:11I think it's an over.
03:12But I know Kev likes Green Bay.
03:14I like Green Bay as well.
03:16So yeah, for me, I think the side is actually really tricky.
03:18I like a prop on the Green Bay side.
03:20We'll get to that in a second.
03:21But I think what it does really boil down to is they believe the Packers are better
03:26and home field advantage is worth less than it used to be.
03:29Right?
03:30And that's kind of just the simplest way to put it.
03:32Within the last two weeks, both of these teams went to Seattle to play a game.
03:36Green Bay won 30-13.
03:39Minnesota won 27-24.
03:41Again, wins are wins.
03:44But if we do this with Kansas City, I think we could certainly do it with Minnesota.
03:49You mentioned in the eight-game win streak, they got red hot by playing close games against
03:52the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans.
03:56Those were on the road, right?
03:57They were three.
03:58I'm just saying.
03:59The Colts game was at home.
04:00Then Jags, Titans were on the road.
04:02Then they went to Chicago.
04:03Right?
04:04And that was a three-point game.
04:06Then they beat Arizona by one.
04:08Then they smashed Atlanta, rolled the Bears lifeless, and then the three-point game against
04:13Seattle.
04:14The reality is an eight-game win streak against a lot of lifeless football teams, some close
04:22victories as well, and I don't think the books are overly swayed.
04:27Where I think the Green Bay Packers have started to shift the perception back to where it was
04:31at the beginning of the season, that this team is as good as any in the entire National
04:35Football League.
04:36And I think that is, again, continuing to bubble.
04:39For me, I am keyed in on Jordan Love's passing yards at 250-plus.
04:44That's my favorite wager on the board.
04:46The Minnesota secondary is opportunistic, but it is a little bit vulnerable.
04:50They're allowing, in the last six games, 291.5 yards per game, with five of the six opposing
04:58quarterbacks going for 250-plus.
05:01And I just listed out the teams they played.
05:03It wasn't a run of Burrow, Allen, and Lamar going up against this Minnesota secondary.
05:10In that six-game window, on average, quarterbacks are throwing the football 39.3 times per game.
05:17We don't see Jordan Love throw the football 36, 37, 38 times, typically.
05:23But on this season, when Love is throwing it at least 30 times, in four of five, he's
05:28thrown for 250-plus.
05:29If he throws the ball 35-plus times within the last two years, he's thrown for 250-plus
05:35in eight out of 10.
05:36To me, Donnie, I think I get volume with one of the best quarterbacks in football in Jordan Love.
05:41I think he soars through 250-plus.
05:42No, and he's going to have to, because I think they're going to be losing in the second half,
05:46which means you're going to get extra passes down the stretch.
05:48And also, you're taking a look at Christian Watson, unlikely to play today, doing the
05:50multiple outlets.
05:51That is your deep shot.
05:52So now you're taking a look at more sustaining of drives, which means more short passes,
05:57more completion percentage chances here.
05:59And also, if Jacobs can explode in this game, Joe, we always know this, the play-action
06:03pass really opens up, and you can get real creative with Matt LaFleur.
06:06But I just like the way this defense has played for the entirety of the season with
06:09Brian Flores.
06:10I just think that home field advantage is just a little bit too much.
06:12And yes, if there is a conspiracy theory, they would love to see Minnesota win.
06:16But again, Green Bay is a good team.
06:17That's why it's minus one and a half.
06:19I'm just giving the slight edge at home today to Minnesota, the way they play Justin Jefferson.
06:23I think he steps up in a big moment.
06:24Yeah, it's a great look.
06:25I am curious to see how Minnesota does approach it from an offensive perspective, because
06:30I do expect Aaron Jones to really try and take the game over.
06:34Last time they played, it was 92 yards.
06:36A lot of that was in the second half after they built the first-half lead.
06:39I think they look to run the football first, work off a play-action for Sam Darnold.
06:44I think it's the opposite approach for Jordan Love.
06:46And the reason why I say that is, you know, you look at the middle part of the year, Minnesota
06:51had the second-ranked rush defense in the NFL.
06:53They were giving up 75 rushing yards per game.
06:56They stuffed the box.
06:57They forced teams to beat them over the top.
06:59Then what happened was they played more explosive offenses.
07:02They started utilizing a lot of blitz packages.
07:05They did it against Caleb.
07:06They did it against Joe Flacco and some of those teams, and teams started to run on them.
07:10Now is a big game.
07:11I think they get back to basics.
07:13I think they stack the box, force the game out to Jordan Love, and we'll see how this
07:17game plays out.
07:18Early on, I think it's going to be a great game.
07:19It wouldn't shock me if it goes either way.
07:21I do lean to Green Bay, but I like the overcap.
07:2448 and a half, I think, is light.
07:26I think Jordan Love does have success over the top.
07:29We'll see if it's Reid, Wicks, or maybe even Tucker Craft in terms of the passing game
07:32tonight.