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00:00A championship on the line tonight in Las Vegas. It is the
00:07second ever in second annual NBA in season competition. The
00:132024 Emirates NBA Cup tonight in Las Vegas in Sin City
00:19between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Milwaukee Bucks.
00:23The Thunder, a five-point favorite to win the cup tonight
00:27with a total of 215 and a hook. Joe, we have reached the
00:32stage. The championship of the second ever in season
00:36competition around the association. These games have
00:40been incredible. The atmospheres have felt the intensity of a
00:44playoff matchup and with a title at stake tonight in Las
00:48Vegas, what are you expecting to see? Yeah, I expect a blow
00:53out if we're being honest here. I think OKC runs them off the
00:57court here, Ben. I just, I don't see that the energy on
01:00the defensive side of the ball against Giannis is going to be
01:04over the top. I think that they are, they're going to force
01:08anybody else to try to make some shots here and quite
01:12honestly, I don't trust the Milwaukee defense to even come
01:14remotely close to slowing the Oklahoma City Thunder down
01:18offensively. I think they'll get what they want. I think
01:22Hartenstein's set to have a absolutely monster game and I
01:27think ultimately it's going to be fun to watch back and forth
01:31until Oklahoma City just wears down the Milwaukee Bucks here,
01:36who by the way, have their big three all listed as
01:40questionable 24 hours ago. We'll see if there's anything
01:45more to that, but I mean, just I want everyone to watch this
01:49tonight, Ben, and then think what would this team be like if
01:51Chet Holmgren was on the court. Yeah, just keep that in
01:55mind. They already, they already are the Western
01:57Conference favorites. They already have the second best
02:00price to win the NBA championship. We expected OKC
02:04to play in monumental games like this one entering this
02:08year. Oklahoma City has lived up to that billing. Joe,
02:13although they might not win the cup tonight, if you are
02:16correct, and as the odds makers expect with the Thunder laying
02:19five points in Las Vegas, the Bucks have used the NBA Cup to
02:24resurrect their season. They entered their first game in
02:27group action against Toronto as a two and eight basketball team
02:33in 2024-25. They have won 12 of their previous 15 to get to
02:39this stage tonight. Now, I do also want to talk about the
02:43total 215 and a hook is where the number stands right now. We
02:47have talked about the intensity, the atmospheres of
02:50these games. Every other game throughout a run to the NBA Cup
02:54has counted to your regular season record, right? We are
02:56trying to incentivize the regular season in the NBA. This
03:00game does not, but the reason I bring up the total is because
03:03that intensity has been there. We have seen great defense. Both
03:07of these teams in their semifinal Saturday showdowns
03:11in Las Vegas played well to the under. OKC limited Houston
03:17to just 96 points. How much offense do we see tonight in
03:22Sin City? I think you are going to see exactly the same thing.
03:26I mean, listen, OKC is not going to want to get into some
03:30sort of three-ball contest here with Lillard on the other side.
03:37What I do think is that whoever you think is going to lose this
03:40game, you should probably look at their team total under
03:44because I just don't see it happening. The Thunder have a
03:47million long athletic wins to defend and throw at Damian
03:53Lillard, Middleton, AJ Green, you name it. I think they are
03:57going to force probably, it is just going to be Giannis or
04:01Bust at some point in this game. I like his point prop to go
04:05over here tonight, but I just don't see it being enough
04:09because of the defensive effort by OKC. I don't think this is
04:13going to be an up-tempo game by any stretch, so I like OKC to
04:18win. I don't like Milwaukee to win this game, and I don't like
04:22their team total over. I'll look at their team total under as
04:25well. The Thunder won three teams along with the Cavs and
04:29the Celtics to get to the 20-win benchmark already this season.
04:32As I've shared, Milwaukee using the NBA Cup after a 2-8 start
04:36to now be 14-11, so they're three games above 500, but OKC
04:42has just been dynamite all year long. In fact, Joe, in terms of
04:46covering numbers, the Thunder are the second-best cover team
04:49in the NBA since the beginning of last season, a 58.6% ATS
04:54mark. The only team better, the Magic. Orlando is the only team
04:58at 60% or higher in terms of that cover percentage in the
05:03last year and a half in the NBA. The Bucs have not been an
05:07underdog frequently as they have started to play better
05:10basketball in this 15-game span that Milwaukee has won 12 times.
05:15Just twice a dog. They have covered in both, winning
05:19outright one time. OKC enters this game overall having won
05:23five consecutive, covering in all five, a favorite in all
05:28five. Now let's talk about those point props and the
05:31performers that you alluded to earlier. OKC certainly has that
05:36perimeter length to frustrate Damian Lillard, who has the
05:38second-highest prop of 22.5 for Milwaukee. Giannis, the highest
05:43for the Bucs at 30.5, but the highest number for Oklahoma
05:46City, that is Shea Gilgis Alexander at 32 and a hook. I do
05:51not remember the last time, Joe, that Shea Gilgis Alexander
05:55played in an NBA game without a point prop around 28.5 to 32
06:00and a hook. He lives in this margin because of his
06:04consistency. What do you expect out of the Thunder in terms of
06:08their offensive output tonight? Yeah, I think it's going to be
06:12led by, well, you know who, right? SGA here, 32 and a half
06:16points. It's acceptable, Ben, because I think it's going to be
06:22very difficult when he gets out in a transition for the
06:25Milwaukee Bucs, who are, by the way, the oldest team, I believe,
06:28right now outside of the Lakers in the NBA. So they are not
06:33going to want to run with Oklahoma City, who has one of
06:37the youngest rosters in there. So I think Hartenstein's going
06:40to be able to feast here tonight. And I do believe SGA
06:45is, this could be his big shining moment here to win the
06:49cup, come out and be absolutely dominant and be at the free
06:54throw line a lot. That wouldn't shock me either. As he was by
06:58the way, in the semifinal victory over the Rockets on
07:01Saturday, 15 times he made 14. He had a game high 32 points. He
07:06had 39 a week ago in the quarterfinal matchup against the
07:10Dallas Mavericks. He has had at least 26 points in every NBA
07:15Cup game, group play, quarterfinal, semifinal so far
07:19for OKC. Are you getting a discount on Jalen Williams at
07:2322 and a half? Not necessarily. He has had at least 18
07:28in the last two knockout, win or go home type games in the
07:32NBA Cup, but 20 against Houston on Saturday, 18 a week ago
07:37against the Mavericks. Did have 28 to clinch the group for OKC
07:42in group play action. Now two weeks ago against the Utah
07:46Jazz. A lot at stake tonight. It should be a very fun game.
07:50Joe, let's talk beyond the NBA Cup, right? These teams using
07:54this as a springboard. Again, the Thunder expected to be
07:58in a spot like this, but not just for an NBA Cup, but also a
08:02Western Conference crown in the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Oklahoma
08:06City second best price to win the NBA Championship behind the
08:10reigning title winners in Boston. The short favorites
08:13already to win the Western Conference title. It feels
08:16fitting Joe to see OKC with those short numbers. And it
08:21should and you know they are one of these teams that's going
08:24to be around Ben well into the next decade. However, you
08:30can't get me to discount Donchick and Kyrie and Dallas
08:35again and what they're doing. Styles make fights. OKC should
08:39be the favorite, but boy there's a lot of basketball still to be
08:43played. Plus the trade deadline is now open. Be very
08:46interesting to see who loads up to beat them. Plus 175, the
08:51number for Oklahoma City, Luka Doncic and the Mavericks as you
08:54alluded to second shortest price at plus 550 Milwaukee
08:5811 to one in the Eastern Conference, where it already
09:02feels like a tier of two between the Cavs and the Celtics.
09:05Boston already minus money at minus 110 to win the Eastern
09:09Conference title again. Joe and Harry as always your services
09:13here on a Tuesday on the early line are highly appreciated.
09:17Enjoy the rest of your day.