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00:00Army, a conference champ for the first time in more than 130 years of football in West Point. Navy has eight wins. It enters look in a play spoiler to what would be a historic season for the cadets. This matchup of Army and Navy as good as you will ever find. I actually mean that and we'll have the historic trends to back it up. But Lee
00:29guy played today in Landover, Maryland, just outside the nation's capital. It's the 125th all time Army Navy game where the Black Knights are a six and a half point favorite against the midshipmen a total as high as we have seen since 2019 at 39 and a half. Where do you begin your breakdown for Army and Navy? Well, Navy does lead the all time series 6255 to one straight up but Army has won six of the last eight including the last two.
00:59One last year been 17 to 11. They dominated for much of the game, gave up a garbage touchdown in terms of the second half. But you're talking about two offenses that are averaging 32 points per game. Army averaging 314 on the ground. We know about the dominance of Bryson Daly is averaging well over five yards per carry. 29 rushing touchdowns tied with Ashton Gente as one of the tops in the nation. They love to run it and then obviously work off of play action.
01:26They're only averaging 83 rushing yards per game on the flip side. Blake Horvath in that team, they run it as well to 40 but they have an average 128 passing yards per game. They have thrown for more passing yards this year since the highest total since 2016. So they get after it. They have to 200 yard games on the docket. I think they'll challenge Army in this matchup. Army does have the much better defense statistically given up 13 points per game, but it's a rivalry game.
01:55We saw six and a half pop up earlier in the week. Now, Kev, five and a half and six is across the board. I like Blake Horvath and Navy, even though Army dominated Tulane last week in the AAC championship. Give me the midshipmen potentially in the upset.
02:10You do mention the number has been changing overnight. We saw five and a half all of a sudden as the money certainly started to come in on Navy. I think this was a number that was bet up through the week starting around maybe four and a half here. It's one of those spots to me where if you're going to bet Army playing this number, you have to think that they're significantly better because it's not even just a cliche of rivalry, throw the records out the books.
02:34It's still the nature of this game where possessions are limited. It is more difficult to win by margin. Well, I do think Army is significantly better than Navy. I think they are double digit points better actually than Navy this season.
02:50And we talk spread math here. It depends what you want to do. You want to compare their Notre Dame games head to head. Okay, that would say that they're about even, but a part of that issue is Notre Dame's number kept kind of going up throughout the year and that was the first time Navy had a step up spot.
03:07Yeah, there's some, they didn't play a lot of teams in similar spots. So like Navy would play a team like 10 destroy them. And by the time they got to Army Army like 25, it's like, I don't know, it's Army 20, you know, 15 points better. I believe that they are 10 plus points better. So for me, I would then want to get this under a touchdown because I wouldn't want to like 10 here with Army in this type of, you know, rival not just again, not just rivalry style of football game under a touchdown though.
03:36I'm backing one of the best players in all the college football this season. We just talked Heisman Army has someone I believe in Bryson Daly, who would have been very deserving to actually go to New York, quite frankly, doesn't make the cut. But I just think Army Army is a college football playoff level team. In my opinion, Navy is not that and Bryson Daly did finish sixth in terms of those top 10 vote getters in the Heisman trophy. We'll talk more about the props in just a matter of moments.
04:05But I do want to go back to the team comparisons because this is a historic edition of Army and Navy 11 wins for Army that ties the most ever in a single season for the Black Knights eight wins for Navy the most since 2019 19 combined wins between the two teams. It is the most we have ever seen between the two schools entering an Army Navy game.
04:30It is the first time since 2017 that both clubs have accepted a bowl bid know where they are going for ball season. It is the first time since 2017. A lot of pride is at stake as well. The commander in chiefs trophy is on the line. That is the battle between our three service academies, both Army and Navy handling a downed Air Force team.
04:54This season, there is so much that goes into this game, the history, the tradition, the pageantry, and a rivalry on the field and teammates off it for years to come. I do want to talk that total because you talk pure Americana for Army and Navy 17 of the last 18 years, the Army Navy game have trended toward the under the last time we saw 40 points, which would be over this total the highest again, the over under has been since 2019 was back in 2019.
05:25And that was just 41. In fact, the last time this game was ever played in Landover, Maryland, at the home of the commanders was the last time we got into the upper 40s. That was back in 2011.
05:38At least you got both of these teams averaging more than 32 points per game, both still running on 75% of their plays or more still both top 10 rushing offenses. How electric does the offense need to be today, though, in a matchup where the style will be a huge dictator for how this game plays out to see us get over that total.
05:58Well, I think you're going to need chunk plays. And that's the one area I'm a little concerned in terms of a rivalry game, because even though the stats say then trend to the over 39 and a half, I think both teams take this as a playoff game. They hate each other. It's a pure rivalry. And we know that they want to run the football first and foremost, as long as there's no penalties, that doesn't mean that means that the clock will be running.
06:22And most likely it's time of possession type of drives. And it would be one thing, Ben, if we're talking low, right, 31, 32, where you have the ability to just get through that number one or two plays. Now you need chunk plays on almost every quarter of turnovers to sustain that. That doesn't mean it can't happen. It's just that now pre-kick that we see the 39 and a half's play out.
06:49I mean, that's a very tough number to get through when we know that both teams want to run the football. Now, Army is one of the best turnover margins in all of college football as well, plus 14 in turnover margin. They win the turnover battle today. Most likely they'll cover and get through this 39 and a half. But I don't see it, Kev.
07:05I think this total, like I said, with the number, right, where, again, I would say if things weren't, if this wasn't this game, Army should be like 11, right? All right. But you got to get six and a half. If it wasn't these teams, this total, you look at their profiles, it's closer to 50. Both of these teams have been able to score this year. Getting Horvath back is huge, of course, for Navy, but it's this game.
07:29So when it's halftime and the score is 7-0, you go, ah, of course. But I think it's interesting because Navy this year hung 34 on Air Force and Army, oh, only 20, no Bryson Daly. So I don't know, that translates to like 40 points then without the kids. So I would not be surprised if this game was, relatively speaking, a bit of a shootout.