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00:00TANAKA KOICHIRO, PROFESSOR, KEIO UNIVERSITY
00:04TANAKA KOICHIRO, PROFESSOR, KEIO UNIVERSITY
00:08TANAKA KOICHIRO, PROFESSOR, KEIO UNIVERSITY
00:12Good morning.
00:14This is the news on December 14th.
00:17Let me introduce today's guest.
00:21This is Professor Koichiro Tanaka,
00:24a professor at Keio University specializing in medieval painting.
00:29This is Professor Taisuke Abiru,
00:32a professor at Sasakawa Peace Foundation specializing in foreign policy and security.
00:40This is Professor Tetsuo Kotani,
00:43a professor at Meikai University specializing in security in the United States.
00:49Let's take a look at today's headlines.
00:54Here they are.
00:57Today's topic is the history of the Middle East,
01:01which will change after the collapse of the Assad regime.
01:04I didn't expect the dictatorial regime to collapse so easily,
01:10but I'd like to dig deeper into what impact it will have on the Middle East,
01:15and what impact it will have on the world's power balance.
01:20What will happen next?
01:22There is a catchphrase,
01:25a laughing country and a crying country.
01:28This time, the situation in the Middle East
01:32is divided into two countries,
01:35which I'd like to sort out today.
01:39And last week,
01:41as I mentioned in the special,
01:43the South Korean situation.
01:45Last week, on this Saturday afternoon,
01:48there was a resumption of diplomatic relations,
01:50but it didn't take place.
01:52Today, however, it will be resumed.
01:54This time, it seems that more than 10 members of the House of Representatives
01:58will participate in the negotiations.
02:00This is the latest situation.
02:03It seems that the resumption of diplomatic relations will be resumed.
02:07This is what experts say.
02:10Mr. Kotani, what are you paying attention to?
02:13First of all,
02:15the resumption of diplomatic relations will be resumed
02:18if more than 8 members of the House of Representatives
02:21vote in favor of the resumption of diplomatic relations.
02:26However, even if the resumption of diplomatic relations is resumed,
02:29the judiciary will need to make a decision.
02:33We still don't know what the decision will be.
02:36Will the trial be held within 180 days?
02:39That's right.
02:41I think there is a possibility that the chaos in each country will continue.
02:46However, from the second paragraph of this bill,
02:49the paragraph that criticizes the improvement of relations with Japan
02:53and the deterioration of relations between China and North Korea
02:56was omitted.
02:59At first, it was said that it was included in the reason for the resumption of diplomatic relations.
03:03That's right.
03:05It's a bit reassuring that it was omitted.
03:08However, if the resumption of diplomatic relations is resumed
03:11and there is a change in the government,
03:14the current investment in the government will be difficult for Japan.
03:17Therefore, the situation with Japan may continue to be difficult.
03:20What does Mr. Trump think about this situation?
03:23Mr. Trump is still in the Senate,
03:26but I think that if the Korean president is a conservative president,
03:29he can do it well.
03:32However, if he becomes progressive,
03:35I think there is a possibility that he will make the situation more difficult.
03:38Yes.
03:40After the commercial break, we will have a special report.
03:43How will the Middle East change with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria?
03:50At the end of November,
03:52the opposition started a large-scale attack in Syria.
03:55In just 10 days, the capital city was occupied.
03:58On the 8th, the Assad regime collapsed.
04:01The leader of the HTS Sharm Liberation Organization, Mr. Jaurani,
04:04who became the center of the opposition,
04:07said,
04:10This is Egypt, my brothers.
04:13It is a new history for the blind nation.
04:16In just 11 days,
04:19Syria will be liberated from its north to its south
04:22and from its east to its west.
04:25The opposition, which had collapsed the Assad regime,
04:28led a tentative government on the 10th.
04:31He appointed the head of the Syrian state government,
04:34Mr. Bashir,
04:37who is in charge of Idlib,
04:40as the base of the opposition.
04:43He also held his first conference.
04:46It is a tentative government until March 1 next year.
04:53However, the opposition is not only HTS.
04:57There are multiple groups,
05:00such as Turkish and Kurdish organizations,
05:03and the focus of the future is
05:06whether HTS, which is mainly composed of Syrians,
05:09can be put together.
05:14HTS, which is also led by the opposition,
05:17is led by the international terrorist organization Al-Qaeda,
05:20and is recognized as an organization
05:23that promotes the rule of Syria.
05:32What will happen to the Middle East
05:35when Syria collapses?
05:38Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
05:41praised the collapse of the Assad regime
05:44as a historic day,
05:47but also expressed that it was necessary
05:50to prevent the collapse of the Assad regime.
05:53Israel has carried out more than 350 air strikes
05:56in Damascus and other cities,
05:59and has crossed the border with Syria
06:02and is engaged in military activities
06:05within the Syrian territory.
06:08President Erdogan of Turkey,
06:11who opposed the Assad regime
06:14and supported the opposition,
06:17has said that he will open the border
06:20for the return of about 3 million Syrian refugees.
06:27On December 12,
06:30he met with US Secretary of State Blinken
06:33and held a conference on the stabilization of Syria.
06:36How will it work in the future?
06:41On the other hand,
06:44how will Russia respond?
06:47It is said that the collapse of the regime
06:50was due to the fact that the Assad regime
06:53was not sufficiently supported
06:56by the long-term Ukrainian invasion.
06:59Russia's naval and air bases are left in Syria,
07:02and Russia is said to be in contact
07:05with the pro-Syrian regime
07:08in search of a base.
07:12Will Russia's influence remain?
07:19And how will the United States deal with it?
07:23President Biden welcomed the collapse of the Assad regime
07:26and showed support for the stabilization of the situation.
07:34President Trump said that
07:37the United States should not intervene
07:40in the situation of Syria.
07:45What will the Trump administration do?
07:52Today, we will deepen our discussion
07:55on these three themes.
07:58First, let's look at the first one,
08:01which is to rule over new Syria.
08:04Let's review the anti-Syrian movement.
08:07The movement, which is based on the HTS Charm
08:10Liberation Organization,
08:13began its advance from Idlib in northwestern Syria
08:16on the 27th of last month.
08:19It has taken over the capital Damascus
08:22on the 8th of this month.
08:25President Assad and his family
08:28emigrated to Russia on the same day.
08:31On the 9th of this month,
08:34President Assad and his family
08:37established a temporary government
08:40until the 1st of March next year.
08:43The leader of the former Syrian government,
08:46Mohammad Bashir,
08:49was appointed as the prime minister.
08:52On the 12th of this month,
08:55the temporary government was announced
08:58to suspend the constitution
09:02The temporary government was established,
09:05but I would like to discuss whether or not
09:08the government will be able to rule over Syria.
09:11Mr. Tanaka, what do you think?
09:17I think it is possible to give a certain assessment
09:20that the Syrian government
09:23has entered Damascus.
09:26On the other hand,
09:29the Syrian government
09:32is an armed group
09:35that has been fighting against Assad
09:38for a long time.
09:41I think the question is
09:44how to coordinate with other groups
09:47that have been fighting against Assad
09:50in Syria.
09:53It is a multi-ethnic country,
09:56so I think the question is
09:59whether the Syrian government
10:02will be able to take a flexible stance
10:05and maintain its unity.
10:11Let's look at the map.
10:14There are many different groups
10:17in the anti-Syrian government.
10:20As Mr. Tanaka said,
10:23the main organization
10:26is HTS.
10:29HTS is based in the northwestern part of Syria.
10:32Other than that,
10:35the blue-colored group
10:38is the Syrian Democratic Army,
10:41which is supported by Kurdish forces.
10:44The Syrian National Army,
10:47which is supported by Turkey,
10:50is also supported by Kurdish forces.
10:53Do you think the Syrian government
10:56will be able to maintain its unity?
10:59Yes.
11:02The Kurdish forces
11:05have been suppressing
11:08the northeastern part of Syria
11:11for the past 10 years.
11:14The U.S. has been supporting
11:17the Kurdish forces for a long time.
11:20The Kurdish forces
11:23are dominating the area.
11:26The central government
11:29must control the area
11:32to suppress the Kurdish forces.
11:35The Kurdish forces
11:38have been suppressing the area
11:41for a long time.
11:44From Russia's point of view,
11:47Russia has been supporting Assad
11:50for a long time.
11:53At some point,
11:56Putin decided that
11:59he couldn't support Assad anymore.
12:02He changed his mind.
12:05I think Russia played a role
12:08in persuading Assad
12:11to join the Syrian government.
12:14At the same time,
12:17Russia quickly accepted Assad
12:20as a political ally.
12:23I think Russia played a big role
12:26in the change of government.
12:29I think Russia played a big role
12:32in the change of government.
12:35I think Russia played a big role
12:38in the change of government.
12:41I think Russia played a big role
12:44in the change of government.
12:47I think Russia played a big role
12:50in the change of government.
12:53I think Russia played a big role
12:56in the change of government.
12:59I think Russia played a big role
13:02in the change of government.
13:06Mr. Kotani, what do you think?
13:09It is important to understand
13:12how these three big organizations
13:15will rule in the future.
13:18I think it is important to know
13:21whether the Kurdish system
13:24and the Turkish system will succeed.
13:27I think it is important to know
13:30whether the Kurdish system and the Turkish system
13:33will succeed.
13:36I think it is important to know
13:39whether the Kurdish system
13:42and the Turkish system
13:45will succeed.
13:48I think it is important to know
13:51whether the Kurdish system
13:54and the Turkish system
13:57will succeed.
14:00President Trump is in Syria.
14:03President Trump is in Syria.
14:06President Trump is in Syria.
14:09President Trump is in Syria.
14:12President Trump is in Syria.
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23:00U.S. President Joe Biden said,
23:03U.S. President Joe Biden said,
23:06U.S. President Joe Biden said,
23:09U.S. President Joe Biden said,
23:12U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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24:42U.S. President Joe Biden said,
24:45U.S. President Joe Biden said,
24:48Mr. Kotari.
25:18U.S. President Joe Biden said,
25:21U.S. President Joe Biden said,
25:24U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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28:00U.S. President Joe Biden said,
28:03U.S. President Joe Biden said,
28:06U.S. President Joe Biden said,
28:09U.S. President Joe Biden said,
28:12U.S. President Joe Biden said,
28:15U.S. President Joe Biden said,
28:18U.S. President Joe Biden said,
28:21U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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29:21U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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29:27U.S. President Joe Biden said,
29:30U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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29:36U.S. President Joe Biden said,
29:39U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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29:51U.S. President Joe Biden said,
29:54U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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30:00U.S. President Joe Biden said,
30:03U.S. President Joe Biden said,
30:06U.S. President Joe Biden said,
30:09U.S. President Joe Biden said,
30:12U.S. President Joe Biden said,
30:15U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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30:21U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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30:27U.S. President Joe Biden said,
30:30U.S. President Joe Biden said,
30:33U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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30:39U.S. President Joe Biden said,
30:42U.S. President Joe Biden said,
30:45U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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30:51U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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31:00U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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31:09U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:12U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:15U.S. President Joe Biden said,
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31:21U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:24U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:27U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:30U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:33U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:36U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:39U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:42U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:45U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:48U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:51U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:54U.S. President Joe Biden said,
31:57U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:00U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:03U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:06U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:09U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:12U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:15U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:18U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:21U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:24U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:27U.S. President Joe Biden said,
32:30Mr. Kotani, you're not stopping the U.S., are you?
32:33I'm not stopping the U.S.
32:36I'm focusing on Israel's self-defense rights.
32:39First of all, this is definitely against international law,
32:42but I'm not stopping it.
32:45I think that will further reduce
32:48the U.S.'s presence in this issue.
32:51I think that will further reduce
32:54the U.S.'s presence in this issue.
32:57I think that will further decrease
33:00the U.S.'s presence in this issue.
33:03I think that will further decrease
33:06the U.S.'s presence in this issue.
33:09Mr. Abel, what do you think?
33:12Well, if you look at Russia,
33:15the reason Russia dictated it's military to Syria
33:18was because it was depending on the Assad administration.
33:21was because it was depending on the Assad administration.
33:24So, in the relationship with the Assad regime,
33:27they have been using military force.
33:29However, in the south of Syria,
33:34Israel has the influence of Iran's military forces.
33:40There are various facilities there.
33:42So, they have been using air strikes.
33:45In fact, Russia has been using air strikes for a long time.
33:50In that sense, the relationship with Israel has been maintained in Syria.
33:57So, in the current situation,
33:59as long as Israel does not attack Russia's military bases,
34:05it will not move at this point.
34:10There is information that Israel is not only attacking Russia's two military bases,
34:17but also other places.
34:19So, I think that Prime Minister Netanyahu knows the relationship with Russia.
34:28On the other hand, Iran is in a very bitter situation.
34:34The Assad regime is a shield for Iran,
34:38which has been positioning Syria as the front line of the war against Israel
34:43by supplying weapons to the new Iranian forces.
34:45It was also a shield for Iran that Hezbollah and Hamas in Syria were weakened by Israel.
34:51Iran's top leader, Mr. Khamenei,
34:53said that it was obvious to everyone that the US and Israel were at war.
34:59Mr. Tanaka, as you can see from this map,
35:03Iran is trying to support Hezbollah in various ways,
35:06but the only way through is Syria.
35:09I think that alone is pretty tough.
35:12Recently, there have been a lot of air strikes between Israel and Iran.
35:18It seems that Israel is under a lot of pressure.
35:21It seems that Israel is under a lot of pressure.
35:25From Iran's point of view,
35:27Hezbollah, which was supposed to be a powerful force in the distance to protect its own territory,
35:35and Hamas,
35:37have both lost their function and have been weakened.
35:42The Syrian Assad regime, which is the root of Hezbollah,
35:47has disappeared in the distance that Hezbollah was trying to build its ability.
35:53Now, the words of the new U.S. ambassador and the actual leader,
35:58Joe Rani,
36:01say that he will not fight Israel.
36:04He says that he will not fight Israel even though he has been subjected to so much persecution by Israel.
36:10He says that the enemies he is putting on the dog market are Iran and Hezbollah.
36:15So Iran is trying to leave a certain influence in some way,
36:19just like Russia, in the new Syrian government,
36:24but it is in a pretty tough situation.
36:27Mr. Kotani, when Iran has been pushed this far,
36:31do you think they will rush to develop nuclear weapons?
36:36How do you think the Trump administration will respond to this?
36:40Looking at the current movement,
36:43I think Iran is taking a pretty defensive response,
36:48and it is also trying to improve relations with the United States.
36:53In that sense, Trump has already said that he will restore maximum pressure on Iran,
37:00and I think he is trying to create an environment where he can make a new deal with Iran.
37:08The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria,
37:12from Trump's point of view,
37:15I think it is not strange that it is connected to the pressure on Iran and the deal with Iran.
37:22After the commercial break, we will read out the thoughts of America and Russia.
37:31Let's take a closer look at how America and Russia are moving.
37:35First, Russia.
37:36President Putin has accepted the asylum of the Assad family
37:40after the collapse of the Syrian government.
37:43Russia, as the backer of the Assad regime,
37:46has been occupying two bases of the Navy and Air Force in Syria for 42 years in 2017.
37:53The Tartus Naval Base is a geological site connected to the Mediterranean,
37:58and it has been used to build the Middle East, Africa, and NATO.
38:02President Putin's goal is to expand this base.
38:06He is already starting to talk with the pro-Syrian government.
38:10The reason why Russia's power has been weakened so far is that
38:13Ukraine has been in power for nearly three years,
38:16and its weapons and firepower have been depleted,
38:18so its activities in Syria have been greatly reduced.
38:23Mr. Abirishi, what do you think about Putin's ambitions?
38:28Well, the reason why he couldn't support the Assad regime
38:32is probably not only because of Russia's weakening,
38:34but also because of Iran's weakening and Hezbollah's weakening.
38:38The Assad regime was protected by Putin, Russia's air force,
38:44Hezbollah, and Iran, and the Assad regime was protected by them.
38:51So the whole thing was weakened.
38:54That's right.
38:55If you look at it from Russia's perspective,
38:57now that the Trump administration is coming out,
39:00Ukraine will be the king of foreign security policy in the future.
39:07So, in that sense, if you look at it from Russia's perspective,
39:10it will concentrate its maximum power on Ukraine's military operations.
39:15In that sense, if you look at it directly,
39:18it's already approaching 3km from Pokrovsk in the eastern part of Ukraine.
39:25In that sense, the situation in Syria is not necessarily
39:29affecting Ukraine's military advance in Russia,
39:32which is now in a very advantageous situation.
39:37Rather, I think it's controlling the extent of its intervention in Syria
39:41in a very advantageous situation.
39:48Mr. Tanaka, what do you think?
39:52Whether it's Russia or the United States,
39:55I don't think they've always tried to have a certain influence in this region.
40:00This time, the shape of the figure, or the power figure,
40:04is going to change.
40:06There's a new void that's going to be created there.
40:09I think there's going to be a movement to demand a return on investment.
40:15Even though there are 900 people in the United States,
40:18we've been working together with Iraq,
40:21and we've been working together with the U.S. military in Iraq
40:24to protect the Kurdish forces in the northeast.
40:29I honestly don't know what the Trump administration will announce in the future.
40:33Even under the Trump administration,
40:36we were talking about leaving Iraq in 2026.
40:39Leaving Iraq meant leaving Syria, of course.
40:44This flow may be accelerated by the Trump administration.
40:48Even if it's not accelerated, it's going to be maintained.
40:51So in the end, it looks like there's a middle island
40:55where the United States and Russia don't seem to be.
40:59If you look at this map,
41:02you can see that Russia has two bases
41:05that are very important to Africa and Europe.
41:10Can you show me the other map?
41:13There are two air and naval bases.
41:17This is the top right of Mr. Tanaka.
41:20The so-called HTS, the temporary government side,
41:25I think it's a delicate issue.
41:28I think it's a delicate issue.
41:31I think it's a delicate issue.
41:34I think it's a delicate issue.
41:37I think it's a delicate issue.
41:40I think it's a delicate issue.
41:43I think it's a delicate issue.
41:46I think it's a delicate issue.
41:49I think it's a delicate issue.
41:52I think that the HTS side, which was suppressed by the Russian military
41:58in the form of Idlib, etc.
42:02in the form of Idlib, etc.
42:05I think that the HTS side, which was suppressed by the Russian military
42:10in the form of Idlib, etc.
42:13Here in the future, there may be some effect of Russia's influence.
42:18It seems to be.
42:21I think it will work.
42:23However, I don't think there is a choice to maintain it at a huge cost.
42:33That's how much you want to focus on Ukraine.
42:35Ukraine is the main issue now.
42:38So, while we are focusing on Ukraine, we will do what we can to maintain it.
42:46We will use foreign tools as much as possible.
42:50Compared to the West, Russia is more flexible in terms of foreign policy.
42:56As I said before, even if it is an Islamist government,
43:00let's take the example of the Taliban.
43:03Russia is clearly less difficult to deal with than the West
43:08when it comes to recognizing it as an independent government.
43:14Another reason is that there is still ISIS.
43:26In that sense, I think it is necessary for the Russian military base to fight ISIS.
43:38Let's go to the U.S.
43:40U.S. President Joe Biden has said that he will work with all Syrian groups to establish a new Syrian government.
43:50Trump, the next president of the United States, has said on his SNS that he will not be involved in the fight.
43:59Let's take a look at Trump's remarks to each country.
44:03Mr. Trump is in a position where he is ready to do what he has to do in response to Iran's retaliation.
44:10On the other hand, he is wary that Iran may go to war with Iran and that anything may happen.
44:17In an interview with the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine on the 12th,
44:21he said that Ukraine is making a foolish decision to attack Russia from a long distance.
44:26In addition, he said that the only way to negotiate a ceasefire is not to abandon Ukraine.
44:35It's hard to read. Mr. Kotani, where do you focus?
44:39Considering the interests of the U.S. in the Syrian issue,
44:44first of all, to eliminate Russia's military presence,
44:48to establish relations with Iran and Hezbollah and Hamas through Syria,
44:56to stabilize relations between the Turkish and Kurdish systems,
45:01and to stabilize relations between new Syria and Israel.
45:07At least after the Biden administration, we can't do all of this in 40 days.
45:12I think the Trump administration will do all of this.
45:16The President himself has said that he should not be involved.
45:20The second term of the administration is only for those who swore to be loyal to the President.
45:25How many people can make a commitment that they have to deal with this kind of problem?
45:32And I think it's hard to read whether Mr. Trump will accept it when he makes a commitment.
45:39Looking at the current situation,
45:43it seems that there are no people who should leave the U.S. military until they oppose the Trump administration.
45:49I think it's a chance for the U.S. to expand its interests in Syria,
45:56but I don't think we can deny the possibility that the U.S. will withdraw.
46:01Israel seems to be doing whatever it wants,
46:07but will it accelerate when it becomes President Trump?
46:12I don't think that's a mistake.
46:15Above all, it is a government that has already recognized the Golan Heights as Israel's territory.
46:21At least the invasion of Israel into Syria will be fully recognized.
46:29I don't think it will make it difficult for Israel to invade Syria.
46:34Mr. Tanaka, how will the Arab countries accept it?
46:39I think they are dissatisfied that international law and order are being violated in various ways.
46:46I think the Trump administration is also wary that it will promote it.
46:51On the other hand, from Mr. Trump's point of view,
46:54Israel's actions in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon have expanded the area of Israel's security insurance.
47:04If you look at it as a success, you can't stop this kind of flow.
47:10Rather, I think we're going to have to do it like that.
47:15That's all for today's special.
47:17After the commercial break, we will have market information.
47:25The guest of tomorrow's Nikkei Sunday Salon is President Tetsuo Saito of the Komei Party.
47:30I would like to hear your thoughts on the National Assembly's response and corporate group research.
47:35Please take a look.
47:36Next is the market.
47:37On the 13th, the New York Dow fell by seven figures in the New York stock market.
47:41The ending price was $86, which is 43,828.
47:46NASDAQ, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, has a wide rebound.
47:49As you can see from the ending price of the New York Foreign Exchange Exchange market,
47:53The last Nikkei average price was 39,570 yen.
47:57It's about 100 yen higher than the end of Friday's Nikkei average.
48:01I asked the market officials about their expectations for the stock price at the end of December.
48:05Mr. Kawai of the AEU Shogunate is 45,000 yen.
48:08The 19th, when the FOMC and the Japanese silver announcement overlap, is the point.
48:12I'd like to come to the last three business days after Christmas break.
48:16Mr. Hiroki of the Mannex Shogunate is 40,000 yen.
48:19With the FOMC passing, concerns about yen prices will also soften.
48:22I believe that the demand for individual investors who want to use up the framework of the new company will also support the stock market.
48:29Let's check out next week's schedule.
48:32First of all, the market will be on Thursday next week.
48:36The financial policy of Japan and the United States may change, so pay attention to that.
48:41And Mr. Abiru, on Thursday, there will be a press conference for President Putin.
48:45What is this for?
48:47This is held every year by the Presidential Office.
48:50President Putin will hold a press conference, and this will be broadcast nationwide.
48:57It's going to be a long time, isn't it?
48:59It's going to be a long time.
49:01In that sense, we should pay attention to this time.
49:04First of all, what will Ukraine do about its relationship with the United States after President Trump is elected?
49:09That's one big focus.
49:11Another thing is that President Putin hasn't said anything about Syria.
49:16I would like to pay attention to whether or not there is any comment on this.
49:22Korea is also paying attention from this afternoon.
49:24That's right.
49:25That's all for today.
49:27Thank you, everyone.