How Can Syria Rebuild and Revitalize Its Devastated Economy?
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00:00Well, Dr. Shamil Azmeh is Senior Lecturer in International Development at the University of Manchester.
00:06Dr. Azmeh, welcome to the program.
00:08Will you give us your snapshot, if you would, of Syria's economy and where it is right now?
00:16Yeah, thanks, Jamie.
00:18I think similar to what you mentioned at the beginning is this huge decline in GDP.
00:24The estimates vary, but overall we have a complete collapse, if you want,
00:28of productive capabilities in the country in terms of agriculture, manufacturing services, etc.,
00:35but also in infrastructure, in regulatory frameworks and environment,
00:39and also the external linkages of the economy, so things like trade, etc.
00:44I think what's important to note is that this big decline in GDP is not only a short-term shock to the economy,
00:52it's a longer-term process of destruction which would require a lot of effort to try and rebuild and to promote growth again.
01:00And I think, in a way, you could think about the pre-revolution economy, if you want, in 2011,
01:06and what elements of that still could be pathways for the future and what would be new elements of that.
01:13So, for instance, the industrial sector, which was important in some light industries,
01:19so areas like textile or food processing or the agricultural sector, a lot of factories moved to Egypt,
01:25they moved to Jordan or closed down completely.
01:28A lot of agricultural areas, most people have been displaced completely from those areas,
01:33so production and agriculture declined massively in those areas.
01:37Similarly, areas like electricity, energy, basic infrastructure is all in a very, very dire situation.
01:46So it's a very challenging situation on the economic front, I would say.
01:51Well, here's something else that's challenging.
01:53It's these sanctions. I mean, they've been imposed on Syria for years.
01:59How likely is it that they will be lifted and lifted fast?
02:04Yeah, I mean, that's an important question.
02:07I'm afraid it's not very clear yet what would happen in that because this is also a political question a bit.
02:14So the issue would be as Syria moves hopefully into a more inclusive political transition process,
02:21there will be efforts by the countries that impose the sanctions to lift those sanctions.
02:27Some sanctions are more maybe important than others.
02:30So U.S. sanctions, for instance, are quite significant because they have a big impact on financial transactions and other areas.
02:38But, I mean, that's an issue which would have to be worked out in terms of a lot of it is not only the administration,
02:43but it's also U.S. Congress, for instance.
02:46So I think this would have to go hand in hand, which is a Syrian transition through a more inclusive political process,
02:54going hand in hand with the removal of sanctions, which would be key for economic reconstruction and rebuilding.
03:00Well, let's talk about holding Syria's hand through the coming months and the coming years.
03:04What about the role of global institutions supporting Syria through this transition?
03:13Yeah, I mean, so Syria is in a situation that needs a lot of huge international support.
03:19We could think about different types of support.
03:21So there is a need for kind of short-term aid, which would help in areas around food, health, et cetera, et cetera.
03:28But then we also need in terms of services like electricity, energy, and those key services.
03:34But there is a broader need for building political economic institutions, and that's important to have support in undergoing those tasks,
03:44but also to maintain that those processes have to be Syrian-led.
03:48So there needs to be a discussion around what kind of economy, what kind of economic institutions we would have,
03:54what kind of constitutional processes, et cetera, et cetera.
03:57And understandably, the economic debate has not received as much attention so far because there has been more urgent issues to deal with.
04:06But going forward, that is increasingly an important issue, which is rebuilding economic institutions.
04:12And I think international support in that arena, but again, while maintaining a space for a Syrian-led process and discussion, is very important.
04:21Sharmel, much more to talk about in the coming months and years, and I'm sure we'll talk again.
04:24Thank you for that. Sharmel Azmir, Dr. Sharmel Azmir, Senior Lecturer in International Development at the University of Manchester.