Survei Konsumen Bank Indonesia pada November 2024 menyebutkan, keyakinan konsumen terhadap kondisi ekonomi meningkat dibandingkan bulan Oktober 2024// hal ini tecermin dari indeks keyakinan konsumen atau i-k-k november 2024 yang tercatat sebesar 125 koma 9/ lebih tinggi dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya sebesar 121,1.
Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bulan November kembali mencetak tren kenaikan, setelah dalam 3 bulan terakhir yaitu Agustus, September dan Oktober mengalami tren turun. IKK Bulan November juga mengalami peningkatan, dibandingkan bulan November tahun 2023 yang berada di level 123,6.
Kenaikan Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bulan November didukung oleh Indeks Kondisi Ekonomi Saat Ini (IKE) sebesar 113,5 dan Indeks Ekspektasi Konsumen (IEK) sebesar 138,3 lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya. Adapun IKE dan IEK tercatat mengalami peningkatan pada seluruh komponen pembentuknya.
Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bulan November kembali mencetak tren kenaikan, setelah dalam 3 bulan terakhir yaitu Agustus, September dan Oktober mengalami tren turun. IKK Bulan November juga mengalami peningkatan, dibandingkan bulan November tahun 2023 yang berada di level 123,6.
Kenaikan Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bulan November didukung oleh Indeks Kondisi Ekonomi Saat Ini (IKE) sebesar 113,5 dan Indeks Ekspektasi Konsumen (IEK) sebesar 138,3 lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya. Adapun IKE dan IEK tercatat mengalami peningkatan pada seluruh komponen pembentuknya.
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TVTranscript
00:00Game Plus Arcade, available only on NCTA Plus Super App.
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00:20Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:22Live from my IDX channel studio in Jakarta,
00:25I, Prasetyo Wibowo, am back in Market Review,
00:28which will address the issues that are the driving force of Indonesia's economy.
00:31You can watch our live streaming at IDXchannel.com
00:35and let's start the complete market review.
00:47The consumer confidence index in November
00:49experienced an increase compared to the previous month
00:52and the same month in 2023.
00:55The data is also a sign of strengthening
00:57consumer confidence in the condition of the national economy.
01:05The Bank of Indonesia Consumer Survey in November 2024 states
01:09that consumer confidence in the economic condition
01:12increased compared to the month of October 2024.
01:16This is evidenced by the Consumer Confidence Index or IKK in November 2024
01:22which is recorded as high as 125.9
01:24higher than the previous month,
01:26as high as 121.1.
01:35The Consumer Confidence Index in November
01:37again recorded an increase
01:39after in the last three months,
01:40namely August, September and October, there was a decline.
01:43Each was as high as 124.4,
01:46123.5 and 121.1.
01:51The IKK in November also experienced an increase
01:54compared to November 2023
01:56which is at level 123.6.
02:01The increase in consumer confidence index in November
02:03is supported by the current economic condition index or IKE
02:06as high as 113.5
02:08and the consumer expectation index or IEK
02:11as high as 138.3
02:14higher than the previous month.
02:17There are also IKE and IEK
02:19recorded with an increase in all components of their formation.
02:22From Jakarta, Tim Liputan, AIT Action News.
02:30Yes, Mr. Mir, we will discuss our topic this time,
02:32the retail industry.
02:33In the middle of an increase in consumer confidence index,
02:35we have been connected through Zoom
02:37together with Mr. Alfonso Suwijaya,
02:38Chairman of the Association of Indonesian Shopping Managers
02:41or APPBI.
02:43Yes, hello, Mr. Alfonso, how are you?
02:45Yes, Mr. Pras, how are you?
02:47How are you, Mr. Pras?
02:48How are you? Thank you for taking the time
02:50and we are also joined by Professor Telisa Aulia Valianti,
02:53a professor at the Faculty of Economics and Business
02:55at the University of Indonesia.
02:57Hello, Prof, how are you?
02:59Yes, I'm fine, thank you.
03:01Thank you for taking the time
03:03and we will review first, Prof,
03:05how is your view
03:07related to the current economic condition
03:09and then the retail sector in Indonesia
03:11at the end of 2024, Prof?
03:14Yes, so it's like a season,
03:17there are seasons,
03:18so if we look at the end of the year,
03:20this is starting to increase consumer optimism again.
03:22If we look at what was said earlier,
03:24the IKK, which was three months in a row,
03:26then there was an increase.
03:27So yes, after it dries, there is rain,
03:29after the rain, there is dryness.
03:30So if I look at it,
03:31this is a seasonal phenomenon
03:33that usually happens at the end of the year.
03:34So maybe the pessimism that appeared earlier,
03:37then it's been three months,
03:39there is also a time for recovery.
03:41So if I look at it,
03:42there is a recovery from consumer optimism.
03:44That's what I can read,
03:45so that retail sales will also improve.
03:48Indeed, the seasonal pattern,
03:49in early December,
03:50retail sales usually experienced an increase.
03:52In the following three months,
03:54our retail sales index
03:55also fell along with the IKK.
03:57It is predicted that in the future,
03:59there will be an increase
04:00in accordance with the season.
04:01And we just had a momentum,
04:05then later the IKK,
04:07maybe that's what implies
04:09why consumer optimism is starting to recover.
04:13Mr. Alphonso, in real terms,
04:14what is the condition of our retail sector
04:16in recent years?
04:17As mentioned earlier,
04:19after three months of decline,
04:21then in November,
04:22there is a new optimism.
04:25Yes, I think this is one thing that is normal.
04:29I agree with Mrs. Thelisa.
04:32So I think New Year's Eve
04:36is also the second peak season.
04:38After Ramadhan and Eid al-Fitr.
04:40If we talk about the trend of retail sales in Indonesia.
04:46As we know,
04:47the condition of the middle class
04:50has been felt.
04:52It has been decreasing since the beginning of 2024.
04:57Only in the first semester of 2024,
05:01it was helped by quite important moments,
05:04such as the New Year,
05:07then Eid al-Fitr,
05:09Ramadhan, and Eid al-Fitr.
05:11So, after Eid al-Fitr,
05:15Indonesia always enters the low season.
05:18Only this year's low season,
05:20the low season is very deep.
05:22As a result, the purchasing power of the middle class
05:25is under pressure.
05:28Then, like the general trend,
05:31before New Year's Eve,
05:34it will rise again.
05:35This is happening now.
05:37So, I think this is something reasonable.
05:39Especially in November,
05:41as Mrs. Thelisa said,
05:44there was a general election yesterday.
05:47Although the condition of the general election
05:51in retail sales is not as high
05:53as during the press election.
05:55But I think the general election yesterday
05:57was quite helpful in November.
06:00So, I think this will continue to happen.
06:04All indicators will continue to rise
06:06until the end of the year.
06:08I even think this will continue
06:10until Q1 2025.
06:13Why?
06:14Because Q1 2025 will be a new year.
06:18Then, it will continue with Eid al-Fitr.
06:21Then, it will continue with Ramadhan.
06:23Because Ramadhan is a forward trend.
06:25It will continue with Eid al-Fitr.
06:29What needs to be taken into account is
06:31after Eid al-Fitr,
06:33because the trend in Indonesia is always
06:35after Eid al-Fitr,
06:37there will be a low season.
06:39If this year, the low season is deep,
06:41next year, the low season will be long.
06:44Because Ramadhan will be earlier.
06:49So, the low season will be longer.
06:51After Eid al-Fitr,
06:53until Nataru,
06:55next year will be very long.
06:57So, I interpret it as
06:59if this year, the low season is deep,
07:01next year, the low season will be long.
07:03So, I think that's what needs to be anticipated.
07:06If we go back to this year,
07:09I think this is something that is expected
07:12by the retail industry players in Indonesia,
07:15for Christmas and New Year.
07:17But, I think,
07:19to close the year 2024,
07:24I think it's not enough
07:26in this December,
07:29with the increase in December and November.
07:31So, I think overall,
07:33the total growth will not be significant.
07:40Because it's hard for us to catch up
07:44from Eid al-Fitr,
07:46after Eid al-Fitr,
07:47until November.
07:49Until December.
07:51So, I think it will be very difficult
07:54to catch up.
07:56But, I think this increase
07:58is something that is normal
08:00in the retail industry in Indonesia.
08:02That's it.
08:04Prof. Telisa,
08:05how about the Bank Indonesia
08:07that has released the consumer confidence index data
08:09that has been delivered until November?
08:11125.9% increase compared to October.
08:14Then, it also increased
08:16compared to the same period in 2023.
08:19Is the real condition on the ground
08:21because of cyclical momentum
08:23or is there a improvement
08:24from our fundamental economic perspective?
08:26If I look at the low base effect,
08:29because we have fallen,
08:31usually it's a low base effect.
08:33So, because it was dry,
08:35then the impact of low inflation.
08:38So, we know that our inflation is low.
08:40Maybe it also supports the purchasing power of the community.
08:42There is already a improvement
08:44in the purchasing power of the community
08:45because the price is low,
08:46so it becomes more affordable
08:47and the community has been fasting for a long time.
08:49So, they don't shop anymore,
08:51hold on, and so on.
08:52Maybe at the end of the year,
08:55because funds have started to flow,
08:57for example, in corporations,
08:58if we look at the bonus funds,
09:00at the beginning of December,
09:02it has started to flow.
09:03Well, that may encourage
09:06the purchasing power of the community.
09:08So, besides those moments,
09:10it is also a process
09:13of response to the improvement
09:16from the perspective of the community
09:18and because there is liquidity.
09:20Indeed, not yet THR,
09:22maybe not yet liquid for Nataru,
09:24but some corporation bonuses
09:26have started to flow like that.
09:28Well, that may also encourage
09:30the consumption activity of the community
09:32and the impact of low inflation.
09:34And the third, many also evaluate
09:36maybe there is optimism from the new government,
09:39where the new government
09:41wants to push the economy higher
09:43with an 8% growth rate
09:45and maybe it creates
09:47new hopes in the community
09:49that the government will have programs
09:51to push and stimulate.
09:53Well, that may also cause
09:55an increase in positive sentiment
09:57for consumption,
09:58which is reflected in the consumer confidence index.
10:00Well, if we look at the previous seasonal patterns,
10:02November is usually a bit down.
10:04Okay.
10:05We are different this year.
10:07So, if I look at the 2022-2023 data,
10:10it's down.
10:11But, especially in 2024,
10:13there was a turning point there.
10:15Because before that,
10:16it was always low.
10:18Well, there may be a rebound like that.
10:20Well, is this increase also correlated
10:23with the improvement of the community's purchasing power?
10:26But, hold on,
10:27we will discuss the answer later in the next segment.
10:29We will take a break for a while.
10:30And, viewers, make sure you are still with us.
10:51Thank you for still joining us
10:53in Market Review.
10:55In the next segment,
10:56we will present data related to activities
10:58or energy from the IKK.
11:00In November 2024,
11:02the complete data can be seen on your television screen.
11:05Here it is.
11:06The consumer confidence index in November
11:08is 125.9.
11:10If we compare it to November 2023,
11:13it is also higher.
11:14Then, compared to October before,
11:16121.1 is also higher.
11:19And, we know that the consumer confidence index
11:21is supported by the current economic conditions index.
11:24We will see the next graph.
11:25In November, it is recorded at 113.5 points.
11:29Then, we compare it to October 2024,
11:32109.9.
11:34Then, November 2023, at 113.
11:37So, it is still higher.
11:39Then, the next is the consumer expectation index.
11:42In November, it is recorded at 138.3.
11:46A survey from Bank Indonesia
11:48compared to October 2024,
11:50132.4.
11:52Then, November 2023,
11:54134.2.
11:56So, the average is higher.
11:59We will continue the discussion with
12:01Professor Telisa Aulia Valianti,
12:03who is a master of economics and business
12:05at the University of Indonesia.
12:07Then, Mr. Alfonso Suwijaya,
12:08the Chairperson of the Association for the Management of the Indonesian Shopping Center.
12:12Professor Telisa,
12:13we were interrupted earlier.
12:14If we talk about the improvement
12:16or the improvement of the IKK in November,
12:19is there a correlation
12:21with the improvement of the purchasing power in the society or not?
12:26Yes.
12:27So, if we look at the savings data,
12:29in certain groups, it is still growing.
12:31So, in the middle and upper groups,
12:33the savings are still quite growing.
12:34Because if we look at the IKK,
12:35the increase is above 5 million.
12:37The income is above 5 million,
12:39where they also tend to have savings.
12:42If I see that maybe at the end of the year,
12:44and then the PPN issue can be influential.
12:47So, maybe they will do,
12:50like me,
12:51I mean, do the anticipation,
12:53rather than next year,
12:55for certain goods,
12:56we just buy it now,
12:57plus a lot of promo-discounts.
12:59If we talk about Alfonso,
13:00he will definitely understand that
13:02at the end of the year,
13:03there are already a lot of promo-discounts,
13:05plus next year there will be an expectation of an increase.
13:07Because if we compare it with data,
13:09I want to compare it with the retail sales index data.
13:12I just got the numbers.
13:13So, the retail sales index data,
13:15which is the most growing,
13:17is the sales of fuel, motor vehicles,
13:20spare parts and accessories,
13:21as well as sandals.
13:23So, clothes, fashion,
13:25there are also a lot of them.
13:26Well, I'm worried that later it will be affected by the PPN BM,
13:29or the PPN that experienced an increase.
13:30Maybe the community wants to make a purchase right now.
13:33Well, maybe that's also what increased,
13:35why it jumped,
13:36after it was a bit down.
13:38Then, as mentioned earlier,
13:40a lot of companies have started to liquidate bonus funds
13:44at the end of the year.
13:45Kinerja bonus, like that.
13:47Well, that's probably what affects the purchasing power.
13:49But I haven't been able to sum up the purchasing power as a whole,
13:52because I haven't seen the LPS data per category,
13:55because there are also those below 50 million,
13:57below 100 million, below 10 million.
13:59So, the groups are different.
14:01Well, it's the savings.
14:03Well, what are the savings that are actually growing?
14:07Well, that's probably what supports the consumer confidence index.
14:10Because the consumer confidence index
14:12is once again higher in the upper middle class.
14:14Like that, the optimism is higher.
14:16Like that.
14:17Well, in the lower middle class,
14:19maybe waiting for the realization of Bansos
14:21and how the realization of the free food program will be later.
14:25That will encourage optimism.
14:27But it has been shaken,
14:28so it may also affect the optimism of the lower middle class too.
14:32So, if the upper middle class is affected by the Kinerja bonus
14:34and anticipation of an increase in PPN,
14:37and with savings that still support the lower middle class,
14:39with the MBG programs,
14:41and maybe later the realization of Bansos at the end of the year
14:44is also expected to be there,
14:46or the impact of the election,
14:47well, maybe that's what pushes from these two groups.
14:50Hmm, okay, okay.
14:51Well, Mr. Alphonso, it's interesting.
14:52The population with an income of more than 5 million,
14:55like that, is still quite optimistic
14:57regarding our economy at the end of 2024.
15:00What is it like?
15:01Is it related to occupancy?
15:03Is it related to sales in the retail sector itself?
15:06Or do you see other challenges
15:08that still haunt the retail sector itself, Mr. Alphonso?
15:14Yes, I think if we talk about the shopping mall indicators,
15:18there are several indicators.
15:20Number one is the level of visitors.
15:23So, the level of visitors so far
15:25is still growing,
15:27although it is not too significant compared to last year.
15:32But it's still growing.
15:34I think this is in line with the prediction,
15:36because in 2023, the tourism industry,
15:40tourism has grown tremendously.
15:43So, the people miss it so much,
15:46after the pandemic for almost 3 years,
15:48they can't go anywhere.
15:49So, last year, the growth was extraordinary.
15:52Although in terms of the number,
15:54it hasn't returned to before the pandemic,
15:57but it has grown very significantly.
16:00Last year, the shopping mall had to share
16:04with tourism, with the tourism industry,
16:07in terms of the level of visitors.
16:09Now, the people have returned to normal,
16:12have returned to the shopping mall.
16:14So, the shopping mall no longer needs to share
16:17with the tourism industry this year.
16:19That's why you can see the growth earlier.
16:22The indicators have all increased.
16:25Especially with the second indicator,
16:28which is the occupancy rate.
16:30I think the occupancy rate is relatively stable.
16:35There is no significant growth.
16:37Why?
16:38The range will be around 85% to 90%.
16:44We actually hope that in 2024,
16:47it can return to 90% or more.
16:51But it doesn't seem to be achievable.
16:54Because there are some things,
16:56as we all know,
16:57almost throughout the year 2024,
16:59the issue of import ban,
17:03the import restriction,
17:06has become a problem.
17:08Then there are also some retail categories
17:11that are still in a tight position.
17:13Department stores,
17:15then hypermarkets,
17:17those are also two categories that are still under pressure.
17:21But on the other hand,
17:22there are several business categories
17:24that continue to increase tremendously in 2024.
17:29One of them is entertainment.
17:31Cinema, children's toys.
17:35Then there are also retail stores
17:37that sell products at a unit price.
17:43A low unit price.
17:46It opens a new store almost every week.
17:48Why?
17:49Because the middle-class people
17:51who are experiencing a tight purchasing power
17:54tend to buy products
17:56that have a low unit price.
18:01So that's what the middle-class people are after.
18:07So this category of stores continues to grow.
18:10So on the one hand,
18:11there are those who close their stores,
18:14but on the other hand,
18:15there are those who continue to grow.
18:17Especially like cinema,
18:19cinema, cinema, cinema, cinema, cinema, cinema, cinema, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies, movies.
18:22That is because the government reduced the taxes.
18:25Since early 2024.
18:27It was actually a PAD area tax.
18:29But the previous ones,
18:32regions with races,
18:33increased the rate from 25% to 35% and so on.
18:37The government has limited it
18:39to a maximum of 10% since early 2024.
18:42So I think that's also what moved
18:44why categories are so aggressive
18:48This is one proof that there is no need to raise the rate.
18:52By lowering the rate, it increases the transaction.
18:56And this has already happened.
18:58So I think, some closed, some opened.
19:02So I think it's relatively stagnant.
19:05So it's relatively stable if we talk about the occupancy level.
19:08So I think those are the two main indicators in the shopping mall, Mr. Pras.
19:12Well, this is interesting.
19:14How about the long holiday momentum?
19:17Christmas, New Year, just count the days.
19:20Can it be a booster for our economy?
19:24Then for other business sectors, including retail.
19:27We will discuss later in the next segment.
19:29We will be back shortly.
19:30And the judges, we will be right back with the next episode.
19:45Indonesia's Long Holiday
19:50Welcome back.
19:51It's getting more interesting to have our discussion with Prof. Thalisa Olya Falianti.
19:54She is a master in Business and Economics Faculty at Indonesia University.
19:57Then Mr. Alfonso Suwijaya.
19:59She is the CEO of the Indonesian Shopping Center.
20:04Prof, just now we talked about the long holiday momentum.
20:07Christmas.
20:08How do you see it?
20:10Can this be a momentum that can be used to boost the economic performance of the community's economy and purchasing power?
20:21Of course, it must be accompanied by incentives that are getting more and more rampant.
20:27Yes, of course, in that case, there is always a seasonal effect where Nataru will certainly give a boost.
20:33But that was temporary.
20:36We also need boosters that are not only temporary, but also repetitive.
20:41So if we look at the pattern of Indonesia's economic growth, it really depends on events.
20:46So that's it. So the fundamentals are not too strong.
20:49What are the fundamentals? Usually from investment, innovation, productivity.
20:53Well, if it's temporary, consumption, events.
20:56Indonesia's economy is still dominated by events.
20:58So it's not from the fundamentals yet.
21:00That's why if the event is over, like Mr. Alphonso said,
21:04in the long run, if the distance is far from Ramadan to the next Nataru,
21:09because Ramadan is ahead, the drought will be long.
21:13So we have to create events in the middle.
21:17For example, we hold concerts or something.
21:19We always fail to carry out big concerts.
21:21So in the end, the ticket funds are leaked from Visa to other countries.
21:25Because what? We are not trusted to hold events.
21:29Events like we have Mandarika, Labuan Bajo, and so on.
21:32We have to create it.
21:33Because the tourism and creative economy is actually our supporter,
21:37from transportation and so on.
21:38So if we want to rely on the fundamentals, like industry,
21:42then this is actually innovation, technology.
21:45But it takes a long time. It can't be fast.
21:47If you want to be fast, it's through events.
21:49So how to sustain our economic growth, which is still based on events,
21:54we create events.
21:56But what are the conditions?
21:58We hold events in the middle of a geopolitical war.
22:02In Korea, there is a military emergency.
22:05Then in Syria, there is a coup.
22:08There are so many issues that are developing geopolitically.
22:13But Indonesia still has a chance.
22:15We still have to be optimistic.
22:16Create events.
22:17Because our economic pattern is still based on events.
22:21Okay, Mr. Alphonso.
22:22What strategies have been prepared by the APBBI friends
22:25to welcome this year's holiday?
22:29Will there be big discounts?
22:32How to maintain performance in terms of income?
22:38First, I have to say that this is the last chance for us in 2024
22:46to be able to sell growth as much as possible.
22:52So I think there is no other way.
22:54Because this is the last chance.
22:56So we all have to be all out.
22:58And like we agreed together,
23:01consumer society is the main supporter of Indonesia's economic growth.
23:08So I think if you want to maintain Indonesia's growth above 5%,
23:13so I think in this last chance,
23:16I think the biggest portion is the consumer society that has to be pushed.
23:22I have to maximize it.
23:26So that our growth in 2024 can still be above 5%.
23:32So there is no other way.
23:34We in the retail industry are actually used to it.
23:38That every time a new year comes, we will definitely maximize it.
23:42But especially for this year, I think there is no other way.
23:45It has to be maximized again.
23:47So that the consumer society is higher than usual.
23:52So that our growth in 2024 can be achieved.
23:56What will we do?
23:58Of course with shopping promos.
24:00I think it has been done in general.
24:02And then it is also done with various events.
24:06Events are held by shopping centers
24:10to attract customers.
24:12Then discount promos, not just discounts,
24:16various shopping promos are given.
24:19So one is the strategy of attracting first,
24:21with various events, events, events.
24:25Then after coming, they will be given various kinds of shopping promos
24:29so that they shop.
24:31So it's not just coming, but also shopping.
24:33I think the strategy is done by shopping centers
24:37and also friends from retailers.
24:41Especially for this year,
24:43we cooperate with the Ministry of Economy,
24:48the Ministry of Economic Affairs,
24:51and also trade,
24:53and also various ministries and institutions
24:56to be able to make special events.
24:59Which we call shopping in Indonesia.
25:03Which will be held from the 20th to the 29th.
25:07This is a special event to close the year.
25:11Included for the previous one,
25:14to take the last chance in 2024
25:18to increase the consumption of the people.
25:21So there will be a shopping program,
25:23especially additional,
25:25other than what has already happened as usual
25:28during Christmas and New Year.
25:30So that's what will be done by shopping centers
25:34and also retailers,
25:37with the Hippindo Association,
25:39and also with Apindo,
25:41the Indonesian Retail Association,
25:43and also Hippindo,
25:45the Association of Retail Entrepreneurs
25:47and Indonesian Shopping Centers.
25:49That's what will be done.
25:51So it's a special event within the target
25:54to be able to encourage the consumption of the people by the end of the year.
25:58So what kind of projection will there be for retail
26:01by the end of 2024, Mr. Pausus?
26:05In total, again, what I said earlier,
26:08that it won't be more than a single digit,
26:15I mean.
26:16So it won't be a double digit.
26:18Why?
26:19Because even though we managed to boost sales in December,
26:24we still have quite a deep lag
26:28since the end of Eid al-Fitr this year
26:31until last November.
26:33That's what we feel,
26:35where the government lacks maximally
26:40in overcoming the purchasing power of the people,
26:44especially the middle and lower classes.
26:46So what I said earlier,
26:48that this year the low season is very deep.
26:51Because the government is not as active,
26:54not able to provide various kinds of stimulus
26:58or movements or programs
27:02to overcome the problem of the middle and lower classes' purchasing power.
27:07So I think, in total, in 2024,
27:12the growth will not be double digit,
27:14it will only be single digit.
27:16That's it.
27:17Optimism in a single digit for the growth of the national retail sector.
27:21Prof. Telisa Lantas, what are the challenges that need to be mitigated?
27:25In 2025, you have mentioned several global challenges
27:29that seem to dominate the Indonesian economy in 2025.
27:34Yes, the global challenges have been mentioned.
27:36There are many global factors,
27:38in addition to the Trump effect,
27:39also the delay in China's economic growth.
27:41So Indonesia's economy is also very dependent on China's economic growth.
27:46China's economic growth can have a 0.3% impact.
27:49So our growth profile next year
27:51is also affected by China's economic slowdown.
27:53That's a pretty big global challenge.
27:55Together with the Trump effect and geopolitics,
27:57we don't know what the direction of the war will be.
28:00There are still many uncertainties.
28:02In the domestic sector,
28:03we are making policy changes.
28:05Like there will be an increase in GDP,
28:07what the interest rate will be like,
28:09then also interest rates,
28:11such as BPJS.
28:12Although the government has stated
28:14that they are trying to avoid inequality
28:16by increasing the interest rate for the people,
28:19which increases the burden.
28:21But on the other hand,
28:22there are new programs from the government
28:24that are expected to be stimulated.
28:27But on the one hand,
28:28the subsidies in the BPJS will be more limited.
28:31So there are limitations
28:33for the middle class
28:34who have been enjoying subsidies in the BPJS.
28:36But on the track,
28:37we have to reduce fossil fuels
28:39and transition to renewable energy.
28:42The hope is that renewable energy
28:44can also provide a new stimulus to our economy.
28:47Because subsidies in the BPJS are starting to be reduced.
28:50We have to shift to renewable energy.
28:53So the growth profile of the economy next year,
28:56the government wants 5.3%.
28:58Or in the APBN, 5.2% to 5.3%.
29:01That's the challenge.
29:02With the possibility of increasing GDP,
29:05inflation can also increase a little.
29:08And don't forget,
29:09extreme weather also affects.
29:10So what domestic needs to pay attention to
29:12besides the increase in taxes or changes
29:15in government regulations to the public
29:17is also related to the weather.
29:19So this weather is said to be expected
29:21until April.
29:22Predicting,
29:23Elanina or quite extreme rain.
29:26It is expected,
29:27from what we heard,
29:29until October, March, 2025.
29:31March or April, the longest.
29:33So with quarter one, it's very influential.
29:36Our consumption activities,
29:37if it rains, it will be affected.
29:40So even from the production side,
29:42maybe,
29:43but if the rain is too much,
29:45from the food production side,
29:46it will also have a negative impact.
29:48Right?
29:49Because there are longshorts and so on.
29:51So that's also what needs to be watched out for.
29:53The challenge from the weather or climate change,
29:55which may affect activities in society.
29:58Don't forget,
29:59our PMI also continues to decline,
30:00still at the level of contraction
30:01for Purchasing Manager Index,
30:04or Purchasing Investor Index.
30:06That's also what needs to be watched out for.
30:07How do we increase it?
30:08So that's what created the Eventify,
30:11and created a policy breakthrough,
30:12precisely to encourage
30:14the consumption of the community.
30:16Well, the minimum wage,
30:17APINDO,
30:18seems to disagree with the increase of 6.5.
30:21Because it becomes a burden.
30:22But on the one hand,
30:23maybe it can increase the purchasing power.
30:25How do entrepreneurs,
30:27governments, and employees meet?
30:28For the solution,
30:29we are together in the same boat,
30:32to,
30:33the point is,
30:34to increase the productivity of the economy,
30:37and also increase consumption,
30:39so that we can enjoy the fruits of economic growth together.
30:42So,
30:43can we still reach 5.2?
30:45That's still a challenge.
30:47I mean,
30:48the expectation of 5.2 to 5.3,
30:50to survive at 5.0,
30:51there are many challenges.
30:52Yes, that's right.
30:53So,
30:54maybe it has to be our responsibility,
30:56in the future economy.
30:57Yes, that's it.
30:58Indeed,
30:59we will be waiting for the conclusion
31:01from the policy makers in the country,
31:04it can be a boost again,
31:07regarding the economic activity in Indonesia.
31:09Especially the global challenge in 2025,
31:11it's not a joke,
31:13where the pressure,
31:15then floods of export products,
31:17import products,
31:18I mean,
31:19this is a concern,
31:21for several business sectors in Indonesia.
31:23It means,
31:24this will be one of the red lines that needs to be seen,
31:27how to maintain
31:29the resilience of Indonesia's economy in 2025,
31:33it is a mutual obligation,
31:35from the government,
31:37business actors,
31:38and also the people.
31:39Prof. Telisa, thank you very much,
31:41for your time, sharing,
31:42and also the analysis that has been given to the audience today.
31:45Prof. Fonsus, thank you for the update.
31:48And the information also given to the audience.
31:50Congratulations on continuing your activities again.
31:52Stay healthy.
31:53Thank you. See you again.
31:55Prof. Telisa, Prof. Fonsus.
31:57Thank you, Mr. Pras.
31:59Viewers, don't leave your seat,
32:01because we will be back soon,
32:03with other interesting topics,
32:04related to the resilience of the automotive industry,
32:07in 2025.
32:09Market Review will be back soon.