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00:00NATO's foreign ministers have been meeting for a two-day-long summit.
00:04Ongoing support for Ukraine was at the heart of talks, but to Kiev's dismay, the alliance
00:08sidestepped the issue of membership for the war-torn country.
00:12That's despite a letter from Ukraine's foreign minister addressed to his NATO counterparts
00:16today, insisting that his country will not accept any security guarantees other than
00:21full membership of the alliance.
00:24The appointed message comes just days after President Volodymyr Zelensky said for the
00:28first time that he would be willing to cede territory to Russia in exchange for NATO membership
00:33in order to end the war in his country.
00:35Andrew Hillyer with this report.
00:39It's the question no one wants to answer at NATO.
00:42Ukraine has been assured it will be a member of the alliance.
00:46But asked about when it would happen, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter sidestepped
00:50the issue.
00:51I would argue let's not have all these discussions step by step on what a peace process might
00:56look like.
00:57Make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to get to a position of strength when those peace
01:03talks start, when the Ukrainian government has decided they are ready to do so.
01:08The two-day summit of NATO foreign ministers will also be the last one for US Secretary
01:12of State Antony Blinken before President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.
01:17This is a vital moment I think for the alliance to make sure that we're level set for the
01:23year ahead.
01:24I share the concern that Mark expressed for Ukraine in this ongoing aggression, but that
01:30only reinforces our determination to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to deal
01:34with what it's facing on the battlefield.
01:36But Ukraine's government wants NATO to go further.
01:39Last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said NATO could extend an offer of membership to
01:44parts of Ukrainian territory still under Kiev's control.
01:48The Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement, timed to coincide with the opening
01:52of the two-day summit in Brussels.
01:54We are convinced that the only real guarantee of security for Ukraine, as well as a deterrent
01:59to further Russian aggression against Ukraine and other states, is Ukraine's full membership
02:03in NATO.
02:04With the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum behind us, we will not accept any
02:08alternatives, surrogates or substitutes for Ukraine's full membership in NATO.
02:14Under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons
02:19in exchange for security guarantees from the US, the UK and Russia.
02:23Now, Kiev says it won't accept what it calls half-measures for membership.
02:28It also asked NATO for 20 additional air defence systems to defend against Russia's attacks
02:33on energy infrastructure.
02:34Let's speak to Dr Gavin Hall now, he's an expert on NATO and a teaching fellow in political
02:43science and international security at the University of Strathclyde.
02:47Thanks so much for joining us on the programme Gavin, we really appreciate you coming on.
02:52Now we know NATO members want Ukraine to join its ranks, obviously Ukraine really wants
02:57to join NATO.
02:59NATO has said that Ukraine's path to the alliance is irreversible, yet we haven't had any clear
03:05timeline for membership being announced.
03:08Why is there such a delay?
03:09Now it sounds like we, Gavin, we can't hear you, I don't know if there's maybe a microphone
03:23that's off there that you maybe need to turn on, but we are unable to hear you.
03:33Is that working better?
03:34Yes, it's working better.
03:35We have you now.
03:36OK, sorry, apologies for that new set up.
03:40So first of all, just to clarify your earlier statement there, I don't think it's certain
03:45that every member of NATO wants Ukraine to be a member, though it is the formal position
03:50of the alliance.
03:53Ukraine has been on a path to membership alongside Georgia since the 2008 Bucharest summit, and
04:02this process has been ongoing for a period of time.
04:06Most recently there have been lots of statements have come out, including at the Vilnius summit
04:11and the Washington summit last year, whereby the membership action plan, the traditional
04:17process for joining NATO would be waived in the case of Ukraine, and more firm statements
04:23have been made that Ukraine will actually be a member at some point.
04:27So I think that although that is the consensus opinion of the alliance, some members are
04:32using it as a delaying tactic rather than giving a rubber stamp to it.
04:42If Ukraine was to become a member of NATO, then there are a whole series of problems
04:48that need to be resolved in accordance with that.
04:51First of all, if it is granted membership while still in an open war with Russia, then
04:58how does that impact Article 5 and the self-defense provisions of the Washington treaty?
05:04Would that draw in other members into the conflict?
05:08Would it only be allowed to join once hostilities have ceased, in which case what is the incentive
05:14for Russia to pursue a negotiated settlement when it's dead set against Ukraine joining
05:22NATO, or is it set for some predetermined point in the future, in which case that can
05:31then sort of re-ramp up tensions as that deadline opposes?
05:36And sort of along this, it's interesting today to note that the UK and France have both said
05:43that they're looking at a range of different options for how this potential ceasefire can
05:48unfold, including potentially deploying troops into Ukraine to monitor a ceasefire, which
05:56would be on a bilateral basis, i.e. not under NATO control.
06:00I think that's sort of a way to try and consider heading off some of the likely Russian criticisms
06:09of this potential peace plan.
06:13And of course, this is all coming ahead of Trump's incoming presidency.
06:17Many commentators are saying that Trump will try to negotiate a deal that would inevitably
06:22involve Ukraine conceding territory.
06:24Zelensky says he's now willing to give up territory to Russia in exchange for NATO membership,
06:31despite the fact that his victory plan had ruled that out.
06:34Why this sudden U-turn on this issue?
06:37Well, why the U-turn is a pretty large issue.
06:42It's because Ukraine thinks it's now in a position of strength from where it can achieve
06:49a good settlement or alternatively, it's worried there's going to be a change in the dynamics
06:56or possibly having to pull back its forces from the Kursk region inside Russia, is worried
07:03about the increasing energy attacks, Russia's new weaponry that it's bringing online and
07:09Ukraine thinks that now is basically going to be as good a time as it's going to actually get.
07:15In relation to the ceding of territory, of course, this is a new development and in many
07:21ways is quite a surprising statement for Zelensky to have made on Friday, though in reality
07:27I think it's been, would have been well accepted that Crimea is basically gone, whereas what's
07:38seen play in terms of negotiations regarding Donetsk and Luhansk and the area south of
07:44the Dnipro River that is occupied by Russia becomes quite interesting.
07:50Normally when someone makes a statement about willing, they're willing to give up this as
07:56part of a negotiated settlement, that's usually the opening position.
08:02So the wider, bigger question becomes what else would President Zelensky be prepared
08:07to cede to give up in order to be able to secure this peace deal?
08:13What are his actual red lines going to be that would be acceptable to him?
08:20And that's the area where Russia is likely to want to push and want to try and find out
08:24what they are and the role of NATO in either membership or security guarantees or enforcing
08:32the ceasefire is likely to be a severe pressure point that Russia will be able to apply.
08:39Dr Gavin Hall, Teaching Fellow in Political Science and International Security at the
08:45University of Stratheclyde, thank you so much for joining us on the programme.
08:48We really appreciate getting your insight there.
08:50Lovely, thank you.