This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Winter arrives early as Arctic winds sweep across the UK. But is there any more snow on the way? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Arctic winds have arrived and many parts of the UK have already seen a covering of snow.
00:05How long will it stay cold? Will there be any further snow?
00:08And will it turn very windy this weekend? I'll be looking at all of that, plus much
00:14more in this week's Met Office Deep Dive, our regular in-depth meteorological discussion that
00:19you can find on the Met Office YouTube channel. If you're a fan of this sort of thing,
00:23don't forget to hit subscribe to our YouTube channel so you never miss one of these updates.
00:28Hard to believe it's only November and there's plenty of wintry weather to talk about,
00:31so this Deep Dive will mainly be focused on this week's weather, the cold, the snow, the ice,
00:38the wind and the potential for some heavy rain as well heading into the weekend.
00:43So let's crack on and this is a selection of wintry scenes that I saw on X or on Twitter
00:51earlier on in the day. Northamptonshire, Shropshire, Telford and Pontypridd. Plenty of
00:59snow has fallen across the UK. Not everyone's seen the snow here in Devon. We started the day with
01:04rain and it was a tale of two towns across the UK earlier on. Bewd in Cornwall started the day at
01:1211.6 Celsius, whilst Braemar in Aberdeenshire started the day at minus 11.2 Celsius. That's a
01:21greater than 22 degree difference from the top to the tail of the UK. And in between, that's where
01:27we saw the snow. Now we had this mild air and this weather front move in, bringing outbreaks of rain.
01:33That rain fell across Northern Ireland, many parts of England and Wales during Monday, but
01:38increasingly it started mixing with the Arctic winds as they were coming south across northern
01:42parts of the UK. And as a result, overnight, the rain turned to sleet and snow. And this is a
01:47cloud... a crowd... should be called cloud-sourced, shouldn't it? That's what I was about to say.
01:52Crowd-sourced map of snow depths provided by WeatherQuest. And although it's not 100% accurate,
02:00it does give a nice indication of where the snow fell and the kinds of depths that we saw earlier
02:08on in the day. So typically 2 to 5 centimetres through parts of mid and north Wales, through
02:14the Midlands, as well as northern England. A little bit lower across some central parts of
02:20England and into the south. Some northern and western parts of London, for example, saw a brief
02:26spell of sleet and snow. But in the far south, we've seen outbreaks of rain. We've been in the
02:31mild air. However, that is now changing through the rest of Tuesday. Here's what the bigger picture
02:37looks like. There's the UK in the middle. The jet stream's diving south. Here's the weather system
02:42that arrived from the Atlantic on Monday and has increasingly been mixing with this colder air as
02:49it's flooding south. So still Tuesday afternoon, still in the mild air in the far south and
02:55southwest of the UK. But if I play that forward, you'll see that cold northerly takeover. And by
03:01the start of Wednesday, basically, most of us are in the same boat. Wednesday is a day of northerly
03:09winds across the UK, low pressure near Scandinavia, and cold air across the whole of the country. So
03:16it's going to be a very cold start to the day. I'm going to talk more about the temperatures
03:19and the ice risk in a moment with that northerly wind bringing frequent showers. And those showers
03:26will be of a wintry nature. So rain, hail, sleet, snow, they'll mostly be affecting parts of the UK
03:33exposed to the northerly with plenty of bright weather away from the showers. In other words,
03:38it's a typical Arctic maritime air mass. The UK is affected by seven different air masses. There are
03:45two words, or three in some cases, that describe those air masses. And it's all about whether the
03:51air has arrived from the Arctic region, the poles, or the tropics, and also whether it's coming from
04:02a maritime source or continental. Arctic maritime basically indicates it's coming from the Arctic,
04:07and it's moving over the sea. So it's picking up a lot of showers and instability because the seas
04:12are relatively warm still surrounding the UK. It's only autumn. Only two months ago, those seas were
04:17up their highest temperature of the year. But the air source is cold. So as those cold winds move
04:23over the warm seas, we're going to see plenty of instability where the air is warmer at the surface
04:28than higher up. And you get all this shower development. And those showers preferentially hit
04:34areas exposed to the northerly wind. That's the kind of air mass we're going to be staying in if
04:40I skip forward to Thursday and Friday for the rest of the working week. We've got that Arctic
04:46maritime air mass. So in simple terms, that means more wintry showers coming through on the northerly
04:52wind. And some places, particularly the likes of northern Scotland, where you've got a lot of
04:58exposure to that northerly wind, you're going to see a lot of sleet and snow showers and a large
05:03buildup of snow. Other areas, so for example, central southern England, where you've got good
05:09shelter from the northerly winds, not much snow at all. That is except for when the Atlantic tries
05:16to join in, just as it did over the last 24 hours. And I'm just going to show you what happens with
05:23the development of this system. This is an area of low pressure. In fact, if we skip back to the
05:30very start, then you can see where that's come from. It's basically, if we play that forward,
05:45it's an area of low pressure that comes in from the Atlantic, merges with some cold air
05:54to the north. So you've got this zone where you've got very mild Atlantic air mixing with
06:00this cold polar air and in between the jet stream. And it is heading for southern parts of the UK
06:08for Thursday, but it's also deepening. And as a result, you've got the isobars on the southern
06:15flank of that low increasingly tightly packed together. And that's why Meteor France have named
06:21this low. They've named it Storm Coutano, I believe. I'm sure I've messed up that pronunciation,
06:30so apologies. But that's more or less what they've named it. So some very strong winds for France.
06:36And the mild air wrapped up in that is mostly heading into France. And it's on the northern
06:42flank of that where we've got this occlusion, where we're likely to see some more prolonged
06:47precipitation. I say precipitation because it's not going to be exclusively rain or exclusively
06:52snow. It's a messy mixture. And I'll be talking about that in a moment. And there's some uncertainty
06:57about exactly how much of that precipitation we get into southern counties of England and
07:02South Wales. That's something I'm going to be focusing on in the next 10, 15 minutes or so.
07:06Once that's out of the way, Friday, we're back to that Arctic maritime airflow until
07:14we get to the weekend. And then things get particularly interesting. And let's rewind the
07:20clock and see where it all comes from. There's one area of low pressure up here near Greenland
07:27and one jet segment coming out of Greenland as well that's going to deepen this area of
07:33low pressure. Now that area of low pressure near Greenland is entirely stuck in the cold
07:39air. So that's containing some cold air. Meanwhile, there's another low that starts
07:45developing to the south of that. And it gets picked up by this dip in the jet stream here.
07:54And what happens, here it is, this low coming out of here, that's in the warm air.
07:59So there's a low coming out of here in the warm air that gets picked up by the jet stream. Another
08:05slice of the jet stream deepens this low. And then they merge. Now when two areas of low pressure
08:10merge, well, it gets quite complicated. It gets a bit more tricky for the computer models to get
08:16a handle on things. And that's because the exact moment in which they merge and the interaction
08:20between the two of them and the interaction with the jet stream all gets highly complex.
08:24And subtle changes at the start of that sequence of events can have a big difference later on.
08:30But essentially, by early Saturday, we've got this low coming in. And the jet stream's deepening it.
08:37It looks most likely, watch what happens, lots of isobars being added to that low at this point,
08:44Saturday morning, as the low moves on to the cold side of the jet stream. So we've got this dip in
08:48the jet stream. The low's deepening significantly at this point. So that by Saturday evening,
08:55it's really quite a deep feature just to the northwest of the UK. And it contains
09:03very strong winds widely across the UK. It also contains much milder air
09:10across many parts of the UK with some very wet weather as well. But just rewinding it slightly.
09:20There we go. As it moves in, it clashes with the cold air across central and northern parts of the
09:25UK. So there is that risk of some more significant snow again. So three main aspects to this week's
09:32weather after Tuesday. We've got the cold northerly winds, the Arctic maritime air mass,
09:38fairly straightforward. Air is exposed to the northerly winds. We'll see frequent wintry showers.
09:43That's Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Then we've got that little feature that's coming up on
09:46Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Then we've got that little feature that's coming in from the Atlantic
09:50on Thursday that's likely to bring some more prolonged precipitation to southern and more
09:55especially southwestern parts of the UK. It's a named storm by Meteo France, but we're not going
10:00to get the strong winds from it necessarily. We are likely to see some wet or wintry weather
10:07depending on where you are and depending on the track of that low. Then we've got this more fierce
10:11low coming in for the start of the weekend and that's what we call a multi-hazard event
10:17potentially. Could cause impacts because of the snow, could cause impacts because of the winds
10:23and could also cause impacts because of some very wet weather that arrives especially across the
10:28south and the west of the UK. So more detail on all of that in a moment. Let's just quickly run
10:34through a general overview across the UK. I've shown this before. It shows four panels that show
10:41different weather elements and the time is up here on the top. So 2pm Tuesday and if I play that
10:46forward you'll see they all animate together so you can get a sense of the bigger picture as well
10:50as the UK weather, the wind and the temperatures all at the same time. And effectively we've got
10:57Tuesday's main weather front moving away from the south. Then we've got those showers with the
11:03northerly winds affecting all of the UK. So showers continuing overnight into the start of
11:09Wednesday especially for the east of Scotland, eastern England, the north of Scotland down some
11:14of these Irish sea coasts into parts of Wales and the southwest as well as Northern Ireland.
11:19Cold winds around coasts, inland lighter winds, clear skies. It's going to be a very cold night
11:26in places particularly where we've got lying snow. Then through Wednesday actually a lot of people
11:33love this weather. It's going to be bright but crisp. Beautiful day for many, clear skies for many
11:41inland central parts but we've still got those wintry showers affecting northern Scotland,
11:46perhaps east Anglia into Wales, Northern Ireland as well. A cold feeling day as well.
11:54Then into Thursday, this is the start of Thursday, so this is 8am. That's when this area of rain moves
12:01in from the Atlantic. It moves into the south and southwest and could bring some snow in some places
12:06but it's going to be a mixture of rain, sleet and snow depending on your elevation and depending on
12:10the intensity of that feature as well. Don't take the graphics too literally, this is just one
12:16scenario. You can see the wind gust graphic there in this panel and it's just indicating those
12:23strong winds sweeping into France as well. So it's going to be windy at times this week but the
12:28strongest of the winds most likely avoiding the UK. Then into the start of Friday we're back to
12:33those showers. Something a little less cold across western coasts, so around coasts and at lower
12:39levels most likely rain or sleet but over higher parts still some snow accumulating. Friday though
12:45plenty of sunshine away from the showers. Lovely day once again if rather chilly, so 3 or 4 celsius
12:51typically at midday there across many parts of the UK. Then into the weekend, more fun and games
12:59as this deep low arrives, brings the spell of very heavy rain and this is 1am so the rain's already
13:06arriving in this scenario and it's falling increasingly as snow across parts of mid Wales
13:14northwards particularly over hills. I know that's not particularly clear at this size but I'll show
13:21you in more detail in a moment what that snow could look like. But importantly as well the wind
13:27gusts are picking up and you can see this sway the very strong winds crossing the UK. Saturday morning
13:36could see widespread gales particularly around western coasts but also potentially inland so the
13:41winds a key feature to monitor over the next few days. And look at that 2pm temperature contrast
13:4713 celsius in the southwest, 3 to 5 at best further north in fact that's highlighted even
13:55more clearly if we look at this sort of graphic. What this is showing each day at 2pm so Tuesday,
14:03Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and in fact we move it along a touch so we've got say midday,
14:11let's do midday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and this is showing at that time of day
14:20for each of the days going forward what the highest temperature in the UK is likely to be
14:25and what the lowest temperature is likely to be. So for Wednesday the highest temperature in the UK
14:29at midday is likely to be in Cornwall 8 degrees, northern Scotland the coldest minus 10 at midday
14:36likely to be somewhere where you've got some deep snow. Likewise Thursday midday 7 degrees
14:42in the southwest minus 7 in northern Scotland so you can see these big temperature contrasts
14:46yeah it's fairly chilly in the south but where you've got that snow cover in northern Scotland
14:50that's where temperatures are going to be remaining well below freezing even at midday
14:54but it's even more marked Saturday midday 13 celsius in the southwest in fact I can play
15:03that forward a little bit more you might see a 14 pop up somewhere in the south perhaps maybe not
15:10I think I saw one earlier when I was playing about but basically 13 celsius in the south and southwest
15:15sub-zero in the north of Scotland so that cold air hangs on there in northern parts of the UK
15:21as milder air arrives in the south and the west through Saturday so yeah that's I thought
15:28something that was interesting to look at. Now let's get on with the warnings because
15:36and this might be out of date by the time a lot of you are watching it but at the time of recording
15:41are a number of warnings and one of the main hazards actually as we're waking up on Wednesday
15:46morning will be slippery surfaces so icy stretches where we've seen snow falling and accumulating
15:53through Tuesday morning and also where we see continued wintry showers sleet snow and so on
15:58falling overnight so northern Scotland continues to see frequent snow showers falling and and
16:05settling inland across northern Scotland overnight into the start of Wednesday so risk of some deep
16:12snow around 10 to 20 centimeters above a couple hundred meters but also some of those icy patches
16:18where we've had some snow covering and so on and some showers continuing. Northern Ireland as well
16:25as eastern England, southeast Scotland, parts of Wales these are the areas where we're likely to
16:30see showers coming and going overnight and although we're likely to see a few centimeters here and
16:36there and some more significant accumulations over hills so 10 centimeters for example above
16:40a couple of hundred meters at lower levels a couple of centimeters here and there it's going
16:45to be quite patchy it's going to be hit and miss with these showers as they come through and on
16:48coastal areas immediate coast perhaps not settling but even so in between the showers there'll be
16:54gaps in the cloud and so there'll be some ice forming so the main hazard for the start of
17:00Wednesday the main purpose of these warnings are about the ice the icy patches that as we know in
17:07this country particularly when we haven't had much wintry weather to deal with recently can cause
17:13issues on the roads and you know people slipping on pavements and so on so watch out for that
17:19what we do next snow that's the one and I just wanted to show the snow totals actually
17:27for a couple of things and we'll move on to freezing the height of the freezing level in a
17:33minute because that's interesting as well but this graphic shows the 24 hour snow totals
17:40up to 6 a.m. Wednesday now this is the snow that's already fallen at the time of recording
17:46across parts of Wales into the Midlands this isn't snow depth by the way this is the total
17:51snow falling through a 24 hour period up to 6 a.m. and what you can see here
17:59if I tilt the map a little bit the bars pop out the most significant additional snow we're seeing
18:06over the next 24 hours northern Scotland and it's coming up at 20 centimetres and some of the higher
18:13parts above 300 metres but even at lower levels 5 to 10 centimetres on immediate coast not much
18:20but inland across Scotland you can see these colours are coming through 10 centimetres perhaps
18:2520 in a few spots but fairly widely 5 to 10 centimetres likewise Northern Ireland let's
18:32move up to Northern Ireland showers now have replaced the more persistent snow and sleet and
18:42yeah it's coming through a few centimetres at lower levels but again especially over the
18:47Morn Mountains the Sperrins we're likely to see 5 to 10 centimetres building up
18:53over the next 24 hours like I say this is the snow that's already fallen earlier on Tuesday
19:00but move it forward slightly you can see how the snow in eastern England builds up so this is the
19:09these are the showers coming through midday Tuesday through to midday Wednesday
19:18the highest totals are coming through on immediate coasts but as I say this isn't snow depth
19:25I think on the immediate coast the snow might not necessarily settle especially during the daytime
19:30but it is indicating quite frequent wintry showers just near Bridlington there
19:35north Norfolk coast for example those areas that stick out and exposed to the northerly flow and
19:42things get
19:46even more interesting into Thursday and this if we skip forward to Friday
19:55and show the 24-hour snow totals it's coming up with similar ideas
20:02Northern Scotland seeing some significant totals Western Scotland Northern Ireland
20:06parts of North and Mid Wales so you can imagine the showers feeding through on the northerly wind
20:12in these areas but one area that really sticks out Dartmoor and this other area that sticks out
20:21Quantock Hills not so much Exmoor but there's Dartmoor that's coming up at 10 centimetres
20:30it wouldn't be out of the question that you could get five to ten centimetres on Thursday as that
20:34system moves in that I mentioned bringing a band of rain bumping into the cold air and leading to
20:41some hill snow in the south but there's also some spots that show up away from hills and again this
20:47is falling snow 24-hour snowfall totals up to Friday morning not a huge amount but it does show
20:55the potential there and in fact if we look at freezing levels when that weather moves in really
21:06early Thursday you can just make out this little bit of a wave there in the green colours that's
21:14the mild air that's heading into France that colour is indicating that the height of the zero
21:22degree level will be above a thousand metres so you wouldn't get snow in the south of England out
21:28of that you'd get you'd get rain but it is quite far away from the south of England now over the
21:33south of England you've got these light blues and dark blues and that indicates a freezing level
21:40the height of the zero degree isotherm at about four to six hundred metres why is that important
21:45it's important because meteorologists look at the height of the zero degree isotherm above the ground
21:52and you can typically subtract about 200 metres and determine whether it's going to be snow or
22:00not so if the freezing level above the ground is about 200 metres and you've got precipitation
22:06coming out of the sky it's mostly going to be snow any higher than that and it will depend a
22:13bit more on the intensity of the precipitation so if it's at 300 400 metres you'd need the
22:18precipitation to be falling heavier so if you think about the snow coming out of the cloud
22:24as it's falling it's falling through air that's above zero degrees so it's starting to melt but
22:31at the same time the melting and the evaporation take energy from the atmosphere you need energy to
22:39to evaporate the snow or the rain as it's moving through the atmosphere the same reason that we
22:46feel cold when we get out the shower the water drops on our skin are evaporating they're taking
22:51energy heat energy away from our skin so when it's raining the atmosphere cools slightly which is why
22:59the zero degree line or isotherm can be 200 metres above the ground because in that depth of
23:06atmosphere as the snow's falling it's slightly evaporating it's taking heat energy away and it's
23:13as a result staying as snow any higher and you need it to be heavier for that process to take
23:22place for it to stay as snow so yeah 400 metres can work for the height of this zero degree isotherm
23:29if the precipitation is heavier so this is the main question mark about thursday's weather well
23:35the two main question marks is how far north the area of precipitation gets across the south of
23:42england south wales as the low moves into france there's some question marks about that and also
23:48how heavy the rain will be and as a result how high you have to be above sea level for it to be
23:54falling as sleet or snow rather than rain at the moment it looks very very finely balanced
24:01it's likely along some of these south coasts and a bit inland perhaps at lower levels to be falling
24:07as rain but any hills 100 150 meters it's more likely to be falling as snow and the most reliable
24:14areas where you're likely to see the buildup of snow so some lying snow is dartmoor but any small
24:20adjustments in the track of that low and the northward placement of the precipitation and the
24:25intensity of it would lead to either most of it missing the uk and just taking a slightly more
24:32southward shifted track or developing more widely across the south of england and south wales and
24:37leading to more widespread lying snow so those tiny tiny adjustments in the track of that low
24:46and the development of it come thursday will make all the difference in terms of whether or how much
24:52snow we see across the far south certainly something we'll be keeping a close eye on
24:57here at the met office now while i'm on this graphic just want to skip ahead to saturday
25:04because it shows such a contrast across the uk again this is the height of the zero degree isotherm
25:11where you've got the greens that effectively means the zero degrees is above a thousand meters or so
25:18so most of the uk under that kind of airflow you'd see rain rather than snow but as it comes in
25:27as it comes in it's a rain bearing weather system and this is 9 a.m saturday we'll turn on that
25:36this shows the rain and the snow so it's got rain heavy rain at that across the south of england
25:43south wales ireland as well but in between we've got snow and that's because we've got this sharp
25:51gradient between very mild air the greens and then we've got the light and dark blues and where we've
25:57got those colors many parts of the midlands northern england scotland parts of northern
26:04ireland would see a period of snow just on the edge of that where the rain and the mild air
26:09meets the cold air from the north so again it's another one that's really finely balanced
26:15and depends on the exact track and depth of the low that's coming in from the atlantic
26:21now this idea that is coming through on the met office model is supported by about two-thirds of
26:27the other computer models that are run the many dozens of computer models that we run
26:32say roughly this sort of track and depth for the area of low pressure this would also bring
26:41if this were to take place some very windy weather and we can show that by putting on this
26:50which is a summary of saturday's winds this is the maximum wind gust on the map for saturday and
26:58it shows widely wind gusts of 50 miles an hour or more the strongest winds in the west but in this
27:05situation could see inland gales as well so this kind of setup of course we'll refine the details
27:12of the coming days but this kind of setup would lead to some heavy rain moving in affecting the
27:18south and the west of the uk potential for 50 70 millimeters of rainfall through saturday
27:25strong winds coming in as well the potential for coastal and perhaps even inland gales
27:30through saturday especially saturday morning and in between the rain in the south and the west
27:37and the cold air further north this transient period of snow which again if that scenario
27:45comes to pass this is saturday a.m and this is showing snow depth forecast snow depth at 6 a.m
27:53don't take it too literally because a lot has to happen between now and saturday but it just gives
27:58you an idea if i play this forward it's got some lying snow across mid wales watch that disappear
28:04as we go through saturday morning as the mild air moves in but at the same time the snow really
28:09starts to build up over northern england the peak district and much of scotland and by saturday
28:16evening in this particular setup we've got 20 centimeters widely over higher parts of northern
28:23england and southern scotland even some significant snowfall through the central belt and some very
28:29substantial snow across central and northern scotland of course that's a combination of those
28:33wintry showers over the next few days as well as the potential for some more organized precipitation
28:38moving in for the start of the weekend however that is all caveated by the fact that there's a
28:44lot of uncertainty about the track of this low now this is the 65 percent scenario that it goes
28:54in this kind of track here but there's a 35 percent scenario that it follows this kind of track
29:01and it's less developed so there are fewer isobars in this scenario we'd be more concerned
29:09about snow affecting a wider area and potentially further south that circle perhaps is overdoing it
29:17a bit more like more like that so central parts and the far south keeping the milder air and some
29:24wet weather down there there we go so two scenarios at the moment we're thinking for that
29:32low two-thirds of the models have something deep that runs to the northwest of the uk
29:37rain wind but also a temporary period of snow one-third of the models has that low following
29:44a more southward shifted track as a less developed system so less concerned about wind but a bit more
29:51concerned about more widespread and longer lasting snow as well less likely to turn back to
29:58rain later in the day that's something that we'll definitely be keeping an eye on over the next few
30:03days with all this weather going on of course it's also going to be very cold so that's something
30:11also worth highlighting i mentioned the icy patches not just on wednesday morning but
30:16each morning this week watch out for icy patches there's going to be some very low temperatures
30:20overnight particularly where we've got snow cover but widely these are the maximum temperatures over
30:26the next few days the south of england has already had its maximum temperatures for tuesday at the
30:30time of recording temperatures are falling away and then wednesday thursday friday mid to low
30:35single figures at best but some areas where we've got snow cover where we've got those very low
30:39overnight temperatures not falling very far at all saturday these are the maximum temperatures
30:47that are coming through and as you can see 13s 14s in the south meanwhile minimum temperatures
30:56also likely to be very low for the next few days i just want to point out what you often see on the
31:03weather forecast minimum temperatures for main urban areas of course but if we zoom in we can
31:13put a few numbers on some more sheltered spots and what you can see here these are the minimum
31:19temperatures for wednesday morning i don't know if it's going to show a minus 10 it did earlier
31:24when i was when i was mucking about but yeah it's coming up with a quite a few minus nines there so
31:30certainly potential for below minus eight we saw minus 11 of course early tuesday so minus 11 minus
31:36minus 11 minus 12 couldn't be ruled out for sheltered parts of central and northern scotland
31:42where we've got some deep lying snow and that's the same for thursday morning friday morning
31:47potentially into saturday morning as well so some very low temperatures it's not just about the
31:52actual numbers on the thermometer of course it's about how it'll feel out there so wednesday
31:59afternoon for example and these are the actual temperatures one to three celsius at four o'clock
32:09these are the feels like temperatures minus three minus four celsius and that difference
32:15between how it feels and what the actual temperatures are actually becomes even more
32:21marked by the time we get to saturday because of course we've got stronger winds potentially on
32:26saturday so these are the actual temperatures on saturday up to 13 celsius in the southwest
32:33four or five perhaps at lower levels across central parts add on that wind feels more like
32:39minus two minus three for glasgow and edinburgh for example yeah so it's going to feel very cold
32:45even if the wind is increasingly from a mild direction finally what happens after
32:55all of that goes through later in the weekend now sunday the low pressure begins to pull away
33:00no matter whether it takes that more south shifted track or more of a typical track towards the
33:05northwest of the uk but it moves away and we're going to see northerly winds return briefly bringing
33:11some wintry showers on sunday to the north of the uk but all indications are that once that low moves
33:18out of the way then we're going to see a build in pressure for next week and that's shown up
33:25quite nicely on this chart you might have seen this before basically each box going from left
33:30to right indicates the day of the forecast so it goes out to the third of december on the far right
33:36there the top row is the latest forecast and each box is colored up either blue if low pressure is
33:45more likely to be dominating the uk's weather or red if higher pressure is more likely and it's
33:50showing quite a clear trend around the start of next week as that low moves away for building
33:55pressure those red colors coming through and that's been a consistent signal when you look at
33:59the previous model runs that are listed below in fact the onset of that higher pressure has
34:06been trending a little bit sooner in recent model runs similar chart here but in this case it's about
34:16whether northerly winds are more likely that's the blue colors or southerly winds are more likely
34:20those are the red colors and a similar sort of transition through the weekend as that low pulls
34:26away there's a 50 chance of northerlies a light shade of blue on monday as the low pulls away and
34:32then the reds return around the middle of next week so an increased chance when you look at all
34:38the different computer models that's what this is a summary of an increased chance of southerlies
34:43versus the northerlies that we've got at the moment and finally will it be easterlies or
34:47westerlies this shows whether it's likely to be westerlies which are the blue colors
34:53or easterlies and the blues are tending to dominate through the weekend of course we've got to
35:00northwesterlies and then southwesterlies then into next week a little bit more of an easterly
35:06flavor but no strong signal and when you look at the placement of the high pressure this is the
35:13summary for next week from the european model and this shows the anomaly so the deviation from
35:19average through the week of the pressure pattern and what it's showing is a strong signal for
35:26higher pressure close to the uk most likely to the east and lower pressure kept away so hence
35:33the increased chance of high pressure that you saw just a moment ago but at the same time with
35:39that high to the east we're likely to see southerly winds so that stronger signal for southerly winds
35:46something perhaps a bit milder but
35:52what it is showing up is a slight preference for colder weather and that's most likely because
35:59the isobars are going to be well spaced out with high pressure you can get clear skies at night
36:04frosts and fog so frost and fog most likely to return next week however as we saw during that
36:09period of anti-cyclonic gloom you can get large areas of cloud trapped under the high as well
36:14and it's a little too early to tell whether we're going to have the anti-cyclonic gloom
36:18or the clear frosty nights i know which one i'd prefer either way with higher pressure this shows
36:24that it's most likely to be drier than average again this is a summary of the week from monday
36:29the 25th of november to monday the 2nd of december so after the weekend's low pressure after all that
36:34weather to deal with through the weekend it's most likely to go back to a little more benign
36:41but it's not quite as straightforward as those summary graphics make out because this is another
36:47way of showing next week's weather but this time it's showing day to day the most likely weather
36:52patterns this is for tuesday the 26th of november and what it's showing is that low clearing away
36:57rain clearing away and a ridge of higher pressure building in so that's the start
37:01of the anti-cyclonic influence then if we skip forward to thursday this is the most likely
37:08weather pattern and this is basically what i've been explaining higher pressure to the east
37:13we've got this south easterly flow and we've got perhaps clear spells perhaps frost and fog
37:22atlantic systems kept at bay but it doesn't have to be a million miles different from this
37:29to result in very different weather particularly for the northwest of the uk notice how that low
37:34in this scenario this is the second most likely weather pattern for that thursday that low is a
37:40bit closer you've got rain and wind into the north and west of scotland northern ireland
37:43northwest england parts of wales staying roughly the same in the south and southeast but in a
37:50slightly less likely weather pattern scenario you've got more unsettled weather into the northwest
37:56compared with the more settled weather widely across the uk so that's one source for uncertainty
38:02next week it's about how close those atlantic lows getting to the northwest of the uk the
38:06northwest not necessarily guaranteed to be staying dry all week there are some indications that we'll
38:12still see some weather systems moving through either way there's a signal for the following
38:17week so the first week of december effectively higher pressure still close to the uk so still
38:23relatively settled perhaps that higher pressure drifting further west again having been over the
38:27continent to bring more widely settled weather so some indications of that but of course that's a
38:32long way off and we've got a lot of weather to get through before we make it that far as well
38:38hope you enjoyed this week's deep dive and uh if you did tell your friends about it and join us
38:45again for this friday as a reminder we do the weather studio live now on fridays at 12 15
38:52and they're similar to the deep dive but they are your opportunity to ask us questions live if you
38:57can make it or in the comments afterwards if you can't make it so hope to hear from you and to see
39:02you then bye