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00:00French farmers have been protesting the prospect of a free trade deal between the EU and South
00:07America's Mercosur.
00:10They say it would undercut their own agricultural output.
00:15Now France's president, Emmanuel Macron, opposes the agreement.
00:19But a majority of European allies are for it, including the likes of Germany and Spain.
00:26Andrew Hillier has the story.
00:30French farmers are virtually unanimous in opposing the Mercosur trade deal.
00:34Both the EU and Mercosur reached an initial agreement back in 2019, but it was never finalized
00:40after opposition from farmers and some European governments.
00:44The free trade deal aims to boost commerce between the European Union and the five countries
00:48that make up Mercosur, namely Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia.
00:54It would gradually eliminate customs duties on trade between the two blocs.
00:58The EU exported 45 billion euros worth of goods to Mercosur in 2021.
01:04French government officials say it would allow the import of an additional 99,000 tonnes
01:08of beef and 180,000 tonnes of poultry.
01:12But French farmers say South American exporters would have an unfair competitive edge.
01:17Farms are bigger and producers are less bound by strict environmental and health regulations
01:21than their EU counterparts.
01:23Wages are also lower than in Europe and that could force prices down for European farmers.
01:28In the end, it's like unfair competition.
01:33Our products are very standardized, very controlled, very closely monitored and products from all
01:37around the world can arrive with completely different standards of production.
01:42The French government, racing to extinguish a growing protest movement, also opposes the
01:47deal.
01:48It's urged other EU countries to refrain from signing it.
01:51Analysts say it could accelerate deforestation in the Amazon rainforest by up to 5 percent
01:56per year.
01:57The deal has united politicians, farmers and environmentalists in a rare common front opposed
02:02to its ratification.
02:03Well, with us, he's a former US diplomat, Chris Hagedorn is adjunct professor of global
02:09food politics at the French political science institute Sciences Po.
02:13Thanks for being with us here on France 24.
02:15Absolutely.
02:16Pleasure to be here.
02:18First off, can you reassure those French farmers?
02:20Are they correct in staging their picket?
02:23Look, French farmers are going to defend their interests as they always have done very vocally
02:29and very effectively.
02:31I wouldn't expect them to do anything else.
02:34But this is an EU broad agreement.
02:38They have been under a lot of pressure over the last few years.
02:41So I think there's a sense of insecurity that the unknown is quite scary.
02:49Because we saw a few years ago when there was a deal on milk, how badly the French farmers
02:57got hit when dairy prices went through the floor.
03:01It feels like for them a race to the bottom when it comes to standards on sanitary and
03:07health on beef, which they have to apply and are more lax in South America.
03:13I think they are right to bring these issues up.
03:16I think the ideal outcome would be that the European position would actually raise standards.
03:23The question about deforestation is on a lot of people's minds and the delay currently
03:28in Brussels.
03:29One year, there's efforts to delay it further.
03:33Those of us who are in this food politics sector are really concerned that we have a
03:38lot of work to do to feed the world.
03:41The numbers are going up, hungry, malnourished.
03:44Perhaps this isn't the right direction that we're seeing coming out of this deal in some
03:49ways on standards and environmental protections.
03:53Because there were farmers unions from the left and the right, and they're all against
03:57it for different reasons, as you just spelled out.
04:02There were German farmers who crossed the border in Strasbourg and picketed alongside
04:06their French counterparts.
04:08But Germany and Spain are in favor of the deal.
04:12Why?
04:14Germany as a country, not necessarily all the German farmers, but Germany sees benefits
04:19for a trade deal.
04:20These trade deals are huge.
04:22They cover everything, certainly beyond agriculture.
04:25So German car manufacturers, service providers, many others are set to benefit quite significantly
04:32from a trade deal.
04:34So overall, this is what Brussels is looking at, the big picture.
04:38Obviously, if you're looking to continue being a political power in Paris, you have to take
04:47into consideration a very fraught political scene with agriculture interests, very strong,
04:52very prominent and very vocal.
04:55So it's a question of whether you're looking at the big picture or more parochial interests.
05:01Again, I get back to the original question.
05:03Is it an existential threat for French farmers?
05:07French farmers are saying many of them will go under with this deal.
05:11My own opinion is no, that it's not, that this is a deal that will be implemented over
05:15a number of years.
05:17That the amounts of beef, for example, are relatively small in volume terms.
05:24I think there is a sense that farmers are under stress and under pressure, and we've
05:29seen that through COVID-19.
05:31We've seen that through higher import costs as an outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
05:37So I think there is quite an insecurity.
05:40Farming, as we know, is one of the hardest industries to be in, and they've had their
05:45backs to the wall for some time.
05:47So the concern is real.
05:50Whether that plays out in terms of loose loss of jobs, loss of welfare, I think there are
05:59safeguards in place that will protect them.
06:02And I think it opens the door for a lot of French agriculture exports.
06:05This is where that balance has to be seen in the bigger picture, right?
06:09Wines, cheeses, liqueurs, the high value add, this is where French industry will actually
06:17stand to benefit quite significantly.
06:19All right, so there's pain for some and gains for others.
06:24Chris Hagedorn, a few years back, there was this trade deal between the EU and Canada.
06:29It got over the line, but boy, was it a heavy lift.
06:32People said the era of free trade deals is over, and yet here we are today.
06:37By the way, I don't know if you heard, there's a new president in the United States who doesn't
06:42like trade deals.
06:43President-elect, yes.
06:45So is this the last one, the Mercosur deal?
06:51I wouldn't say it's the last one.
06:53I think there will be some interesting bumpy road ahead.
06:57I was in touch with a friend at WTO in Geneva today looking to see what the prognosis is.
07:03But it's going to be, it's definitely going to be bumpy.
07:06I wouldn't say it's the last deal, but this is a huge, huge deal, right?
07:10This is 25 years in the making, it's 800 million people in these markets.
07:18This is significant.
07:19And I think if you look at what happened in the U.S. with NAFTA, Canada, Mexico, U.S.,
07:26huge disruptions that weren't really thought through at the time when they were being negotiated
07:31and implemented.
07:32But you see the impacts over time, that change is significant, and a lot of the industry,
07:39heavy industry, manufacturing industry in the U.S. was gutted, moved south to Mexico.
07:45Those do have major social impacts that I think politicians are wise to be thinking
07:51about over a longer term.
07:53The names were changed, but the one you referred to in North America, it was never really rolled
07:58back, was it?
08:00No, hardly.
08:01No, it wasn't.
08:04So again, we heard our correspondent Ian Camazin in Rio there talking about the G20.
08:09There's this Joe Biden pledging a record $4 billion for the World Bank's poorest countries
08:16Meanwhile, at the U.N. climate summit in Azerbaijan, they're desperately trying to reach a deal
08:22on climate finance this time.
08:26There's a sense that they're kind of trying to front load all the financing before Donald
08:30Trump comes to power.
08:32Is that going to work?
08:34I would think that maybe some of the lessons that come out of this election in the United
08:40States show that despite the $2 trillion stimulus package by the Biden administration
08:48on top of what was spent over near half a trillion with the COVID-19 response, in fact,
08:57the inflationary pressures were unleashed.
09:01The prices that went up, that's what the electors were saying was the reason many of them voted
09:08for Donald Trump, because they saw these prices go up and not come back.
09:12Their wages were relatively stagnant.
09:16Things are coming back to a more relaxed economic situation now, but it's too late.
09:23Those that overspending, the amount of money that the U.S. has put towards domestic stimulus
09:30in the light of its national debt, yeah, I think Trump is definitely going to make some
09:36big changes on both trade and finance.
09:39But it feels like these are sort of 11th hour deals that they're working on at the G20,
09:45at the UN Climate Summit.
09:47To what effect?
09:48Are you able to get around the United States?
09:53What's going to happen after January 20th?
09:55Yeah.
09:56Well, this is a million dollar question.
09:58I think there will be some major confrontations coming up.
10:03I think this deal, the EU-Mercosur deal, may in fact antagonize Washington with a
10:10new administration coming in.
10:13I think it will affect overall relationships.
10:16I think the Europeans need the U.S. at this point tremendously in light of the security
10:23threats and defense expenditures, et cetera.
10:26I think everyone sees where Trump is going.
10:29He has a pretty good track record of following up on what he says on the campaign trail.
10:35So I think there's a bumpy road.
10:36I think the WTO is going to be in the crosshairs for Washington.
10:41I think the effort to get the African group is trying to get the WTODG a second term and
10:46changing the rules to do this in advance of the Trump administration.
10:51So I think there's just going to be a lot of turbulence coming up.
10:53I think these trade deals will be reviewed very carefully.
10:56Can multilateralism work despite an isolationist U.S. president?
11:03I think it can, but I don't think the U.S. can walk back on its obligations to be president.
11:08It did for the Paris Climate Accords first time around.
11:11That's true.
11:12And they very well may back out again.
11:14And that threat is being repeated by others, as you know, including from Argentina.
11:20So it doesn't mean that progress can't be made.
11:24So the U.S. will continue to, I think, progress, particularly on renewable energies, particularly
11:31on its agriculture.
11:32It has to sell its agriculture abroad domestically.
11:36Trump is relying on farmers, but farmers need to get their product overseas where their
11:42livelihoods and incomes depend on this.
11:45All right.
11:46May thanks Chris Hagedorn for being with us here on France 24.
11:49Pleasure.
11:50Stay with us.
11:51There's much more to come.
11:52Plus, the day's business and sports.