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00:00Well, he is on a two-day mission to help bring Serbia closer to the European Union as it seeks membership of the bloc
00:06Emmanuel Macron is describing as historic a deal that will see Belgrade purchase 12 French warplanes
00:12The fighter jet agreement marks the latest in a series of moves that have seen Serbia seek closer ties with Brussels
00:19But it's raised concerns about the possibility of Belgrade transferring technology to its traditional ally
00:26Moscow Tom Kennedy has more
00:30In the midst of a political crisis in France
00:33Emmanuel Macron traveled to Belgrade to meet his counterpart Alexander Vucic to conclude the sale of 12 Rafale aircraft
00:42A strategic and sensitive sale at a time when Serbia maintains diplomatic relations with Russia
00:48But for Paris the purchase of these fighter jets is a strategic change for Serbia
00:53Hailed on Thursday by the French president who sees it as a way of contributing to strengthening Europe's autonomy
01:00This strategic autonomy which we can consolidate together by strengthening our security is not exclusive to the European Union
01:11But also within the European political community and with countries destined to join the EU
01:16This is why Serbia's choice of Rafale fighter jets is a clear choice
01:20That of a long-term alliance between our two countries within a stronger more sovereign Europe
01:27Macron claims to have received full guarantees from Vucic to prevent any transfer of Rafale technology to Russia
01:34or any pressure on Kosovo
01:37It will be the second visit of the French president to Serbia in the last five years
01:41following the strengthening of relations between the two countries
01:47For more let's bring in Helena Ivanov. She's associate fellow at the Henry Jackson Society
01:53Thank you so much for being with us on the program, Helena
01:56So we saw a little bit of the story there in that report
02:00Tell us firstly, Serbia is seeking closer ties with the EU
02:04But does that mean it's actually moving further from Russia?
02:08Well, I think that President Vucic has been very clear when speaking during the press conference yesterday
02:14He obviously restated Serbia's desire to join the European Union
02:18and the willingness of Serbia to take the necessary steps to join the EU
02:22However, he has also highlighted that despite everyone's wishes and despite Macron's wishes in particular
02:28Serbia is not going to impose sanctions on Russia
02:31So on the basis of what we've seen yesterday
02:33I think we can expect more of the same from the Serbian government
02:37where on one hand, I'm sure they will continue to cooperate with the EU
02:41take part in normalization talks with Kosovo mediated by the EU
02:45take high state visits like the one that we are seeing for the last two days
02:49But we can also expect that Serbia will continue to work and cooperate with Russia
02:55and that at the very least, it is not going to impose sanctions on Russia anytime soon
03:00But in that case, if it isn't going to be applying those sanctions, as you say
03:04how much pressure do you think is actually being applied behind the scenes
03:07when it comes to securing the deals that we saw secured yesterday in terms of these French fighter jets?
03:14Well, I think that definitely the European Union is trying to exert as much pressure as possible
03:19on President Vucic to get him to impose sanctions on Russia
03:22or at the very least, decrease the intensity of relations with Russia
03:26When it comes to Rafale specifically
03:28we have strong reasons to think that President Vucic will stay committed to his pledge
03:32and that he will not sell the technology to Russians
03:35I think equally, we can expect that he's not going to abuse it or misuse it against Kosovo
03:40especially because if Vucic was to do any of these two things
03:43the price for that would be extremely high
03:46However, I also think that EU's ability to exert leverage on Serbia
03:50when it comes to imposing sanctions on Russia has been very limited
03:53partly because the people in Serbia do not support imposing such sanctions on Russia
03:58So I think in a way, the EU has accepted this dynamic that Vucic has been playing for a while now
04:03and is playing into this balancing act
04:06where it is allowing Serbia to continue the talks for joining the EU
04:10is willing to cooperate and work with Serbia on one hand
04:13but at the same time is sort of accepting that sanctions against Russia
04:16are really not on the table for Serbia
04:19But apart from those pledges, is there any way to actually ensure
04:22that Serbia isn't going to pass on certain technology to Moscow?
04:26Well, I do think that again, Serbia benefits quite a lot
04:30from being in the accession talks with the EU
04:33I think that there are huge financial benefits of cooperation between Serbia and the EU
04:38I think that when it comes to Kosovo as well
04:41the normalization talks are basically one of the ways in which
04:44the Serbian community in the north remains protected
04:47So I think all of these things accumulate to a very beneficial relationship
04:51with the EU that Serbia currently has
04:53And of course, if Vucic was to dishonor the pledge that he has made
04:56all of those benefits with the EU would be gone in a blink of a moment
05:00So I do think that that is exactly the reason why Vucic has no interest
05:04to dishonor the pledge that he's made yesterday to President Macron
05:08And in terms of actually joining the EU
05:10how close is Serbia to realizing that objective?
05:14Well, obviously many would love to say that it is very close
05:18However, I think on a closer inspection
05:20that date is probably not coming anytime soon
05:22I think the EU has been clear for quite some time right now
05:25that there is no appetite for enlargement
05:27and that Serbia needs to resolve certain issues
05:29specifically Kosovo issue
05:31before accession can really become an option
05:34I think equally we have a huge problem
05:36that the popularity of the European Union
05:38is substantially decreasing in Serbia
05:40according to some research
05:42There is a chance that more people vote against joining the EU
05:45than in favor, all of which obviously complicates the accession
05:48But to end on a more optimistic note
05:50it was very surprising to hear President Macron yesterday
05:53say very explicitly that Serbia belongs to the EU
05:56and given that President Macron was one of the people
05:58who thought it's not the time to enlarge now
06:00this kind of a comment coming from him
06:02is definitely encouraging for all of those
06:04who hope to see Serbia join the EU anytime soon
06:07But is it making any real progress
06:09in terms of things like the rule of law, democratic reforms
06:12these are some of the preconditions for membership
06:15Obviously, and that is exactly one of the things
06:18that the EU is demanding Serbia resolve
06:20and Serbia as of yet has not completely resolved those problems
06:24So the question is, is it going to be able to do that
06:27and is the EU going to be willing once Serbia
06:30hopefully does implement all of those reforms
06:33will the EU then be willing to have Serbia join the bloc
06:37And in terms of Emmanuel Macron reaching out to Serbia
06:40he's on a two-day state visit there
06:42Is this simply all about moving Serbia
06:45out of the Russian sphere of influence
06:47what is in it for the EU so to speak
06:49and France particularly?
06:52Well, I think that definitely one big step
06:54that the EU is hoping to make
06:56is to further move Serbia away from Russia
06:59and towards the EU
07:00I think the EU has been sort of trying
07:02this mixture of stick and carrot method
07:04in trying to get Serbia to move away from Russia
07:06and this is part of the carrot
07:08the selling of the raffles and the high-level state visit
07:11is always something that's very beneficial for Serbia
07:13and I definitely think that's one of the reasons
07:15as to why President Macron has done this
07:17but I also think that bilaterally
07:19from Serbia-France relations
07:21there are also clear benefits to it
07:22like multiple different things are going to be discussed
07:24in the next two days
07:25it's also about artificial intelligence cooperation
07:28about energy cooperation
07:29about nuclear energy cooperation
07:31so there are specific things that will be discussed
07:33over the course of the two-day visit
07:35that I think also benefit France
07:37and just generally improve the bilateral relations
07:39between France and Serbia
07:41Helena, we'll have to leave it there for now
07:43but thank you so much for joining us
07:44on the programme this morning
07:45That is Helena Ivanov
07:47Associate Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society

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