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00:00British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to meet with US President Joe Biden later
00:06this Friday to discuss whether to let Kyiv use long-range missiles against Russia. In
00:12recent weeks, Kyiv has repeatedly urged its key allies to lift the current restriction,
00:17with Moscow now saying that a U-turn on the issue would effectively mean that NATO was
00:21at war with Russia. Shirley Sipon has the full story.
00:28President Volodymyr Zelenskiy could have said the exact same words. The Polish foreign minister
00:33pleaded on Thursday for NATO countries to allow Ukraine to fire missiles they have provided
00:39to Kyiv into Russian territory. What used to be a red line for Ukraine's allies could
00:45soon get a green light.
00:51Rockets that hit civilian targets in Ukraine are being shot by the bombers from the territory
00:55of Russia. These bombers take off from the airports on Russian territory. The victim
01:02of the aggression has the right to protect himself.
01:07For President Vladimir Putin, though, if NATO allows Ukraine to fire missiles that its members
01:13produced into Russia, then NATO countries will be at war with Russia, with everything
01:19that entails. Putin says that in order to use sophisticated Western missiles, Ukraine
01:26will need Western soldiers.
01:30This will mean the direct participation of the NATO countries, the United States and
01:35European countries in the Ukraine war. It significantly changes the very essence, the
01:40very nature of the conflict.
01:43This risk of an escalation has led the U.S. to examine various options, which the UK Prime
01:49Minister has arrived to discuss with President Biden. The most likely one, according to U.S.
01:56and British media, is to maintain the ban on the use of U.S.-produced weapons against
02:02targets in Russia, but to authorize the use of long-range missiles made by its allies,
02:09the UK and France.
02:11Well, for more, we can bring in our correspondent in Ukraine, Francis Farrell. Just how closely
02:17will Ukraine be watching what goes on between Biden and Stama this Friday?
02:21So, it's difficult to underestimate and understate how important this is for Ukrainians, strategically
02:28and symbolically. It's something that the country, the leadership and the people have
02:33been asking for since the very beginning of the full-scale war, to be able to defend itself
02:39and fight back against Russia without one hand tied behind their backs. And now, obviously,
02:44with increased frequency of Russian long-range attacks against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure,
02:52this plea has just gone louder and louder. And now Ukrainians are certainly crossing
02:56their fingers for the ability to fight properly back against Russia, to be finally granted.
03:03Now, on the field, meanwhile, Russia says it's recaptured a portion of territory in
03:07its western Kursk region after, of course, Ukraine launched a lightning incursion over
03:12a month ago. What more can you tell us about that Russian counter-offensive as it currently
03:16stands?
03:17So, facts from the ground that can be verified independently are still few and far between.
03:24We know that Russia claimed to have captured 10 settlements back in Kursk oblast from Ukrainian
03:31control. But Ukraine still hasn't commented. Zelensky has said that they know that the
03:38attack was coming and everything's still going to plan. Overall, according to independent
03:42information that we have, it seems that they have taken some territory back and it has
03:47been carried out by some of Russia's more elite units. But for the moment, it's not
03:52a game-changer in terms of Ukraine's hold on Kursk oblast. We'll have to keep our eye
03:56on it.
03:59Frances Farrell reporting from Donetsk in Ukraine. Thank you very much.
04:03Well, for yet more on this story, we can bring in now Dr Gavin Hall, an expert on NATO. He's
04:10also a teaching fellow in political science and international security at the University
04:14of Strathclyde. Thank you so much for joining us here on Around the World today. Now, Putin
04:19has described letting Ukraine use long-range missiles against Russian territory as a red
04:24line. What exactly should we understand this red line to signify?
04:29Well, good afternoon. First of all, I think it should be clear that there have been various
04:34other red lines that Vladimir Putin has drawn since 2022, which have been breached and crossed
04:42at various points in opportunity with only sort of limited responses. In his framing,
04:49if you like, of this as a red line, it's clear that obviously Putin doesn't want Ukraine
04:54to be able to use particularly the UK French-made Storm Shadow missiles because of their capability
05:00to damage infrastructure within Russia itself. But what he's really trying to do is to effectively
05:08create some sort of divide and dispute within Ukraine's allies over how to proceed in the
05:16war. So there's some form of discord, disunity, which challenges the cohesion that's out there.
05:22It's probably picked on this particular moment and day because we've got the UK-US summit
05:28at the moment. We have a new UK government in place. We know that we're going to be having
05:33a budget upcoming. We're going to be having a strategic defense review. So any little
05:37bit that can potentially influence how these transpire and ultimately potentially lower
05:45funding being made available is something that Putin will see as being advantageous.
05:50In terms of what the potential response to crossing this red line be, probably the most
05:56extreme version would be Russia choosing to arm what it would frame as Western adversaries,
06:03particularly countries like Iran, who are also supplying Hamas, Hezbollah and things,
06:10and have their own sort of agenda there.
06:12So in your opinion, we don't think that Russia is really prepared to declare war on NATO
06:17if this new red line is crossed?
06:21No, because that would be something that would require a response to take place. And that
06:28response ultimately wouldn't be beneficial to Russia or Russia's goals and things. It's
06:34maintained there as a sort of threat. And in a way, it's worked and enables Russia to
06:40reestablish some form of deterrence because it's enabling the United States to say, well,
06:47we're not going to allow our weapons to be used. So sort of trying to manage the level
06:52of the increased level of conflict that's taking place there. So there is some form
06:58of restraint that Russia is able to force the Western allies, particularly the US,
07:03to take, which they may not want to.
07:06Well, picking up on what you just said, British media today is reporting that Joe Biden,
07:11of course, wary of provoking a nuclear or possibly nuclear conflict, is ready to let
07:15Ukraine deploy British and French missiles using US technology, but not US made missiles
07:21themselves. How important is that distinction both for the US and for Moscow?
07:27It's pretty much a technical distinction that allows the US to sort of maintain this image
07:34of hey, we're just providing aid and assistance. We're not actually involved in this conflict.
07:39However, in reality, they obviously they are involved to a certain degree in things.
07:46But more, it enables Russia in a way to try and focus on painting the United Kingdom as being
07:54a prominent supporter of Ukraine, being sort of one of the main bad actors, if you like,
08:01that's helping Ukraine to act. We've seen this morning, six UK diplomats have had their
08:07accreditation removed and are going to be kicked out of Moscow for allegedly engaging in
08:13subversive activity, was the phrase, which is pretty much sort of what happened during the
08:18Cold War. Something would happen, both sides would expel others diplomats. So there are
08:24different ways that Russia can choose to respond and how this can develop, which are well below
08:30the nuclear potential.
08:32Now, it's likely that Starmer and Biden's meeting today in Washington will be their
08:37last meeting before an election, a US election that could seriously upend US policy on Ukraine.
08:43What would be, in your opinion, the biggest impact of a Trump administration on Ukraine's war effort?
08:49Well, that's a pretty sizable question. During Trump's administration, 2016 to 2020,
08:59obviously he made lots of rhetoric and came out with lots of statements. However, what he said
09:04versus what his administration actually did generally didn't align particularly well. Indeed,
09:13he might say, have argued, we're going to lessen defense spending, we're going to lessen our
09:19influence in Europe. But in reality, his administration actually increased. So Trump
09:24is someone who uses rhetoric to enhance negotiating positions rather than necessarily
09:29being what exactly he'll do. I'm afraid that's all we have time for. But Dr Gavin Hall,
09:35expert on NATO and teaching fellow in political science and international security
09:39at the University of Strathclyde. Thank you. Thank you.