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00:00 More on this story, I'm joined by Melinda Herring, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council's
00:04 Eurasia Center. Thanks so much for being with us here on France 24.
00:08 You know, for the last two years, the US has been the largest provider of military aid to Kyiv,
00:13 but there's now a reluctance on the part of Republicans in the US Congress to continue
00:19 funding that war effort. So from your standpoint, can Ukraine win this war without the financial
00:25 help of the US? Hi, Monty. It's going to be very tough. So Senator Schumer just got back from Kyiv
00:32 and he said that Zelensky's message there was very plain. If you give us the assistance,
00:37 we can win. Without it, it's going to be very, very hard. And this is a pivotal year. We know
00:43 that the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition and that the European Union and the Ukraine
00:49 supporters in Europe can't turn, they can't bridge that gap quickly enough. So all eyes are on
00:54 Speaker Mike Johnson, the leader of the House of Representatives, who's refusing to bring this
00:59 bill to the floor, even though 74% of Americans want support for Ukraine to continue. Well,
01:06 of course, there's a presidential election happening in November in the US. So what would
01:10 it mean for the war effort if Donald Trump is elected to a second term? You know, by all accounts,
01:16 he's responsible for pressuring Republicans to block the current funding for Ukraine.
01:21 That's right, Monty. So there's two schools of thought on this. There's
01:24 one that I would describe as out of touch with reality, but I will give them airing of their
01:29 views. So Donald Trump in his first administration was tough on Russia. He authorized javelins when
01:35 Obama wouldn't. He kept sanctions in Crimea in place. So he did do some good things. In my view,
01:40 that's because of strong bureaucrats who kept that pressure in place. But I think it's very,
01:46 very dire for Ukraine if Trump is elected. He's already threatened. He doesn't like NATO. He has
01:53 threatened to not use the Article 5 provisions, not to back up our European allies. So he does
02:00 that a few more times, and no one's going to take the United States very seriously with the
02:04 commitments that we've made. So for Ukraine, I expect him to zero out assistance if he were to
02:10 become president. And I don't even think he has to pull us out of NATO. I think he could just
02:14 threaten Article 5. He could say, "I'm not going to back up Europe if it's attacked." And that
02:22 would be enough to really show that NATO's a paper tiger. Well, so with the future of the
02:27 U.S. help now unclear, how confident are you that European allies could step in and fill the void?
02:33 So European allies are stepping in and filling the void. The problem is that they're not doing
02:38 it quickly enough. So the EU promised a million shells by the spring, but they've only delivered
02:43 330,000, and North Korea has delivered a million to Moscow. So they're making another pledge. But
02:50 the problem is you can't just flip a switch. It takes a long time to put these systems into place.
02:56 So really, it's imperative that the House of Representatives pass this assistance to Congress.
03:01 And even though it doesn't look so good, a majority of Americans support this aid to Ukraine. And
03:08 there's a way to force the Speaker to bring the bill. There's a bunch of sort of arcane legislative
03:13 ways to do this. So it's not game over. I talked to a bunch of insiders today. They say that there's
03:19 a 60% chance that this bill will pass in the next two months. Before I let you go, I just want to
03:24 ask you, I know it's hard to predict these things, but how much longer do you think this war will
03:28 last? And is there pressure for Kiev to seek some kind of territorial settlement with Russia to end
03:35 the war? Monty, I don't see an end in sight. So this is not Moscow's first rodeo in Kiev.
03:42 This war is, we're commemorating the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
03:46 But Russia went into Ukraine in 2014 and illegally annexed Crimea. Moscow doesn't show any desire
03:52 whatsoever to negotiate. And after all of the war crimes we've seen, Ukraine can't do it either.
03:58 They will have no security unless Moscow is defeated. Okay, we'll have to leave it there.
04:02 Melinda Herring, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.
04:06 Thanks so much for joining us here on France 24. Thank you.