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00:00Hello, everyone, I'm François Picard.
00:13He'll have served 90 days as French Prime Minister Michel Barnier, tendering his resignation
00:19after a record short stint as head of a post-war government in France, is on the heels of Wednesday's
00:25vote of no confidence in Parliament.
00:28The combined forces of the far right and the left rejecting the first item of next
00:31year's budget, which brings us now to the presidential palace.
00:36France 24 senior correspondent James André is there, James, the president to speak in
00:43less than two hours.
00:45Yes, absolutely.
00:47The president will be speaking and if he does announce a prime minister, it will be the
00:50first time a president announces the name of the prime minister on prime time television
00:56since 1993.
00:58Back in the day it was François Mitterrand announcing that the new prime minister would
01:05be Edouard Balladur.
01:06So that's indeed history in the making if he does.
01:10But for now we have no clue as to know if indeed Emmanuel Macron has chosen anybody
01:16or found a solution to the extremely complex political equation he is facing here in Paris.
01:22What we do know, though, is that he spent his day consulting the heads of the various
01:28political forces here in France that he met earlier on today with Yael Brandpubes, she's
01:34the head of the parliament, president of the French parliament.
01:37He met also with GĂ©rard Larcher, that's the president of the Senate.
01:41We know that he had lunch with François Bayrou, who is the head of the Modem centrist party,
01:47one of his allies and his former justice minister.
01:51Also indeed a lot of consulting, a lot of politics taking place behind closed doors
01:55behind us, very little information filtering.
01:59What we are hearing, though, and that is rather through local media outlets here in France
02:05is that indeed Emmanuel Macron was in a sense surprised by what happened in parliament yesterday.
02:10Also we're hearing that there's a lot of frustration in the ministries where indeed some councillors
02:15are, well, clearing their desks and saying that they feel extremely frustrated with this
02:19short-lived government, that they feel that the national rally has just seized an opportunity
02:25for itself in the face of judicial problems and that indeed all this is a great shame.
02:31So those were the words of those councillors in the ministries here.
02:34But when it comes to who will be the next prime minister, everybody is holding his breath
02:39and waiting to see.
02:40Yeah, because James, the elections happened on July 7th.
02:45It took Emmanuel Macron nearly two months to name Michel Barnier.
02:49You're stating that there is a chance, we don't know how big a chance, but a chance
02:56that Macron will announce a successor immediately.
03:01Now that could totally happen.
03:02I mean, the constitution in France states that basically the president can take as much
03:07time or as little as he wants to find a new prime minister.
03:11So it could be two months and it could be in 10 minutes.
03:14Nobody knows.
03:15What we do know, though, is that indeed Emmanuel Macron, this has been said by people from
03:19the Elysee Palace, would like to find a swift solution simply because, as you know, this
03:24weekend there's a very important political moment here in France.
03:28Around 50 heads of state will be visiting the capital for the inauguration of Notre-Dame
03:33of Paris.
03:34Also President-elect Donald Trump is awaited here.
03:36And obviously for the president it would be difficult, or at least it would look or be
03:41interpreted as a sign of, you know, destabilization of France that there was, if there were no
03:48government indeed at that precise moment.
03:51So there's that.
03:52And then there's also financial pressure from the financial markets.
03:56I mean, as you know, indeed, the whole financial world are watching to see what will happen
04:01in France, because, of course, this could have severe impact when it comes to the European
04:05economy and the eurozone.
04:07So yes, there are many, many good reasons to try and find a prime minister rapidly.
04:11The thing is, he has to find a good one who can actually withstand some time and be a
04:17credible prime minister that can actually govern the country, because there's a lot
04:21at hand right now.
04:23And that includes the budget of the French state, which is up for votes and needs to
04:26be solved fairly rapidly.
04:29Or indeed there will be problems, no shutdown, but problems.
04:33Problems indeed.
04:34We're reporting live outside the ĂlysĂ©e Palace, awaiting Emmanuel Macron's address,
04:40which we will of course be carrying live for you at 8 p.m. local time.
04:45That's in less than two hours.
04:48A special edition right here on France 24.
04:50With us is politics editor Mark Perlman.
04:54Mark, a lot to unpack in what James has been reporting.
04:58First of all, those local media outlets reporting that Emmanuel Macron's surprised at the vote
05:05of no confidence that we saw on Wednesday, do you lend credence to that, that he would
05:10actually be surprised?
05:12That's all people have been talking about for the last weeks.
05:14I'd be very surprised if he was surprised, or I'd be very worried if he was surprised,
05:20because the writing was on the wall for several days now, actually several weeks.
05:27We knew Michel Barnier was skating on very thin ice, and we knew that the left had always
05:35said we'll table a motion of no confidence any time, and they were just waiting for the
05:41moment when Marine Le Pen would say, OK, I'm in.
05:45Because once she said, I'm in, they had the numbers at the National Assembly.
05:49We saw them yesterday.
05:50It was not even close.
05:51They needed 288 votes, they got 331 votes.
05:56And nearly all the MPs from both the National Rally and the leftist coalition cast their
06:01ballots to push Michel Barnier out.
06:04So Emmanuel Macron knew this was coming.
06:07He might be upset, but he might be upset at himself for calling those snap elections six
06:13months ago that turned out to be inconclusive and largely explained the situation we're
06:18in.
06:19And because he cannot call constitutionally another round of snap elections until next
06:24summer.
06:25So he's got several options.
06:27A government of technocrats, people don't really believe that's going to happen.
06:31So what can he do?
06:32He can go for another conservative.
06:34Michel Barnier was from the former Gaullist party.
06:37He could try to reach out to the left, or he could double down with an ally from his
06:45center bloc.
06:46We heard James André mentioning his biggest ally from the center, François Bayot.
06:52Right.
06:53So those are the options.
06:56What he needs to do is find a more stable majority, or if not an outright majority,
07:01in parliament.
07:02Michel Barnier didn't have enough support.
07:04He has to enlarge it.
07:06So this means you only have two ways to do this.
07:10Actually three, as you just mentioned.
07:12One, you make an implicit alliance with the National Rally, meaning you make sure they
07:18don't vote against you.
07:20That's what Michel Barnier had hoped for, but they didn't last very long.
07:24So a name bandied around for each reshuffle, and we've had more and more reshuffles.
07:29So let me just interrupt you on this.
07:31The outgoing interior minister, he's been a very tough law and order guy, Bruno Retailleau.
07:37Bruno Retailleau, probably too much to the right.
07:40But a name that's been out there, and that's been out there for several reshuffles now,
07:45is the defense minister, SĂ©bastien Lecornu.
07:48He has the advantage of coming from the right, but having been an early ally of Emmanuel
07:56Macron back in 2017, he was a rather junior minister, he played a big role in this kind
08:01of roving debate that Emmanuel Macron decided after the yellow vest movement.
08:09And SĂ©bastien Lecornu was very helpful in that time.
08:12He probably saved Emmanuel Macron's skin at the time.
08:16And so he's a faithful of Macron.
08:17He comes from the right.
08:18He also has a fairly good relationship with the National Rally.
08:22Our colleagues from Libération newspaper reported that he actually had a dinner not
08:27so long ago with Marine Le Pen.
08:29This doesn't mean that he's an ally, but he is not a red line for Marine Le Pen.
08:35So this could work with the National Rally, but obviously it's the same problem as Michel
08:43Barnier.
08:44Marine Le Pen could decide, I like him for a few weeks, but if I don't like him, thumbs
08:50down, he's out.
08:51So the other option would be to try to lure the Socialist Party and lure them away from
08:59the leftist alliance that they've stuck with until now.
09:04And so you could appoint a centrist like François Bayrou, who could appeal to the Socialists
09:09because he's a centrist, and he could get support from the Macron camp, the Conservative
09:18camp and maybe the Socialists.
09:20So a larger majority, he could be a consensus candidate, or Macron could decide on the last
09:28Socialist Prime Minister of France, Bernard Cazeneuve.
09:31His name was also in the running when Michel Barnier was appointed.
09:36He broke with the Socialist Party.
09:38So the Socialist Party said last time around, he's a traitor, we don't want him.
09:42But now it's a different context.
09:44The Socialists have let it be known that they're ready to sit down to discuss and try to be
09:49more creative.
09:51Try to be more creative, but they're going to want a concession.
09:53Otherwise, why would they enter government?
09:55So would that be rolling back the pension reform?
09:59That's the problem.
10:00If you enlarge the majority, how can you build a coherent program?
10:03And yeah, you just mentioned the pension reform.
10:07The Socialists have said, we want it to be abrogated, or at least thoroughly changed.
10:14The Macron camp said, no, this is one of our emblematic reforms, we're not going back.
10:19The Conservatives, no way, because they've always advocated for this reform, which pushed
10:24back the legal age of retirement from 62 to 64.
10:28So how do you agree on this?
10:30Well, you can finesse it, saying maybe we're going to look at some aspects and so on.
10:35But clearly, those are the only options for Emmanuel Macron.
10:40There is another option for him tonight.
10:43Last time he addressed the French, he took everyone by surprise, including us, when he
10:48announced those snap elections.
10:50Maybe he could come up with another idea instead of, okay, everyone expects a prime minister.
10:56Let's see, he is used to take his time.
10:59Maybe he could announce a referendum.
11:01It could be on immigration or on other issues.
11:05Or this is very unlikely, but I'll just throw it out.
11:09There is an article in the Constitution, Article 16, that gives exceptional powers to the president,
11:16essentially all executive and legislative power.
11:19For this, you need to have, I quote the Constitution, a grave and immediate threat to the public
11:26institution.
11:27The last time it was when there was a coup attempt in Algeria in 1961.
11:31There was an actual coup attempt in Algeria.
11:34Algeria was still French at that time.
11:37And this was under Charles de Gaulle.
11:40The circumstances are totally different.
11:42It's hard to see Emmanuel Macron invoking Article 16 by saying, we're going into a financial
11:50crisis, a regime crisis.
11:52So exceptionally, I'll make sure I'll pass a budget.
11:54And this will only be a temporary measure.
11:58I don't think, I really don't think he's going to do this because you can only imagine
12:02what the reactions would be on the political scene and even on the streets.
12:08But you never know.
12:10We've heard many unprecedented stuff happening.
12:16Certainly people watching us late in South Korea will say you never know after what happened
12:20there this week.
12:21Let's cross to London now.
12:23And he's a biographer of General de Gaulle.
12:26Julian Jackson, professor emeritus at Queen's Mary University of London.
12:35Your latest book, France on Trial, the case of Marshal PĂ©tain, Marshal PĂ©tain, who was
12:41the collaborator leader of France during World War II.
12:45Thank you for being with us here on France 24.
12:48It's a pleasure.
12:52First question for you.
12:53We are talking about Article 16 of the Constitution.
12:58What are your thoughts when you hear this talk?
13:01Well, I agree with your last speaker that it would be, that it's almost inconceivable
13:09that President Macron would use that article.
13:12It was created by de Gaulle in the Constitution, especially for extreme, extreme, extreme crises.
13:18He had in his mind, actually 1940, when he was in the government and the government collapsed.
13:24And he, he wanted a sense of in an absolute moment of crisis, a president could take emergency
13:29powers.
13:30And as your last speaker said, that last time, the only time it's been used was Algeria.
13:35And when there was a putsch and in April 1961, and it was actually very controversial because
13:41he used it.
13:42He continued to use those powers right from April to September, which was probably pushing
13:49it a bit and a bit unconstitutional.
13:51So the thing about, the only thing I would say is that it's almost inconceivable, but
13:57President Macron is capable, as we saw with the dissolution, of doing the strangest things.
14:02And he seems to be completely unpredictable and to live increasingly disconnected from
14:08reality.
14:09But I don't think it's likely to happen.
14:10And I just wanted to make one point because people are mentioning again and again, quite
14:14rightly, the only time that a vote of censure has taken place successfully under the Fifth
14:19Republic, that was in 1962.
14:22And that was because de Gaulle had tried to revise the Constitution, wanted to revise
14:28the Constitution to allow the president to be elected by universal suffrage, by popular
14:32vote instead of by kind of electoral college.
14:35And this was considered a kind of a Bonapartist Napoleonic thing until the whole political
14:39class was against it.
14:41So de Gaulle said, well, I'm going to do it anyway.
14:43Parliament voted against it, and he dissolved Parliament.
14:46The difference there was that in 1962, he had, he was able to dissolve Parliament because
14:54he hadn't used up that card, which Macron's already used up this time, and he can't dissolve
14:58Parliament until a year has elapsed.
15:01And secondly, in 62, de Gaulle was an extraordinarily popular figure.
15:05He could really appeal to the people over the head of Parliament.
15:08Yeah, and he got a whopping majority after that.
15:11He did.
15:12And remember that he'd only just escaped in August 1962 from an almost, a remarkable escape
15:18from an assassination attempt by the sort of extreme pro-Algerie Francese people.
15:24So there was a great wave of sympathy.
15:26He was a great hero.
15:28He got the French out of Algeria and so on.
15:30Macron is at the moment, as a result of the extraordinary decision to dissolve Parliament,
15:35a deeply unpopular.
15:37And so he neither has the capacity to dissolve, nor even if he did, does he have any kind
15:45of moral, political credibility.
15:48And on the question of resignation, some people have said, well, would he resign?
15:52I think, again, anything is possible with him, but I think it's very, very, very unlikely
15:57he doesn't strike me as a resigning type.
15:59And that makes one think of another constitutional precedent, which was the last time a president
16:05resigned in such circumstances was 1877.
16:08Different constitution.
16:09There was a conservative president.
16:11He was faced with a left wing parliament.
16:13He tried to appoint a right wing government and there was an outcry.
16:19And the slogan was, sous ce maĂźtre ou sous des maĂźtres, to give in or resign.
16:27And he gave in and then he resigned.
16:30And when Mitterrand found himself in 1986 with a parliament that was not very, that
16:41was actually of a different political hue than he was, there was also talk, should he
16:45resign?
16:46And what Mitterrand did, of course, was to cohabit.
16:48But the difference now is, what can Macron cohabit with?
16:52There's nothing to cohabit with because there's a parliament which is completely divided between
16:57three almost equal blocks, centre, left and right.
17:00Mitterrand, not the resigning type either.
17:03Julian Jackson, let me ask you, because in your biography of de Gaulle, you know, he
17:08forges this constitution with a very strong executive power.
17:13One of the reasons Macron probably won't resign is because he doesn't have to under the current
17:19constitution.
17:22But de Gaulle grew up under the Third Republic and so knew all about coalition building.
17:28Mark Perlman has been telling us about how difficult it's proving with a hung parliament
17:35to make alliances.
17:38Are the French, in your view, rediscovering coalitions?
17:43Or are they just simply biding their time until next summer when they can have another
17:48snap election?
17:49Well, if I could give you another precedent, then let's go to the previous republic.
17:55That's the Fourth Republic, which was rather similar to the Third, where you had a very
17:58weak president and a very, a parliament could do more or less what it wanted.
18:03Fifty one, 1951, there were elections which produced basically six equal groups in parliament,
18:09which simply could not agree because no one group could form a majority in the two extremes,
18:15none of which was de Gaulle, refused to work with the center.
18:19And I've been to paralysis and governments came and went with tremendous rapidity and
18:24so on.
18:25So it takes and eventually government was formed.
18:29But in the Fifth Republic, that that habit in the census, to the extent that it was,
18:34it worked to the extent that it worked in the Fourth Republic.
18:38And indeed, it didn't work that well because there was amazing political instability to
18:43the extent that it did work.
18:45It's obviously a habit that the French have now got out of.
18:49And at the moment, it's impossible to see how the, how the three blocks currently in
18:55the French parliament could form a stable coalition of any kind.
19:00I think.
19:01And yet, Julian Jackson, the country's running, the stock market today is not even down, it's
19:07up slightly.
19:08And, you know, the, yeah, there's a civil servant strike that's taking place this, this
19:15Wednesday, this Thursday, but, but, but, but the country's running.
19:19And is there the sense that in France, we talk about electoral politics, but the people
19:25who keep the country running are the high civil service, are the state superintendents?
19:28Well, remember the Belgians, I can't remember.
19:32They were, they were without a government for almost a year, I think.
19:34I mean, things will go on.
19:35The sky hasn't fallen on their head.
19:37There will be some kind of, they'll get, they'll get some kind of caretaker, sort of
19:44temporary budget will be voted and so on.
19:46Yes, certainly that's all true.
19:47Life does go on.
19:49But what is really critical is that this is such a, an important moment for the world
19:54that France, that Europe, faced with a Trump election should be seeing, should be showing
20:01itself in a sense to be able to not speak with a united voice, but that the, that what
20:07had really been the, the, what had made Europe work, which was the Franco-German alliance,
20:13is now in trouble, both because of the Germans and because of the French.
20:17So I think for the world, it's, there is this, this, this going to be this European vacuum
20:24at a terribly important moment.
20:26So yes, okay.
20:27Life goes on.
20:28People go on to their jobs.
20:30The sky hasn't fallen on our head, despite what Barnier said.
20:33But nonetheless, I think it is a really critical moment for, for Europe and for France that
20:40there is this kind of vacuum.
20:42Julian Jackson, so many thanks for speaking with us from London.
20:45Thank you very much.
20:46Yeah.
20:47And Julian Jackson mentioning it, this critical juncture to bear, to be this crisis of leadership
20:53here in France.
20:54Of course, that brings us to Saturday and the optics when we'll see the French president
20:59with the US president-elect at the Notre Dame ceremony, Mark Broman.
21:04Yes, absolutely.
21:05This was unexpected, but this is what we're going to see.
21:10So we could argue that it's, you know, a success for Macron to be able to bring Donald Trump
21:18to Paris for his first trip as president-elect outside the United States for a ceremony about
21:27Notre Dame and so on.
21:29The problem is that he cannot even enjoy it because he's faced with this choice of a prime
21:35minister that's been so difficult for him in the past when he had an absolute majority.
21:41It was difficult when he had a relative majority.
21:43And now that he has no majority at all, it's proving to be really a pain in the neck.
21:50And so he wants to be seen probably on Saturday welcoming Donald Trump with a new prime minister
21:58because the other option is that Michel Barnier would still be the caretaker prime minister
22:04because if Macron doesn't appoint one, this would be the situation.
22:09He could still, that's why the assumption, but it's difficult to say he's going to appoint
22:15a prime minister because of the optics with Donald Trump.
22:18That would be a bit short in terms of an explanation.
22:23The French are certainly hoping that he's going to appoint a prime minister because
22:26this will be a prime minister who can last more than Michel Barnier, three months, 91
22:32days, and who can really make sure a budget is passed.
22:37Financial markets are reassured, Brussels is less worried, and the French know where
22:43they're heading to.
22:44By the way, the French news agency in the last minutes quoting a source close to the
22:50president saying the name of the next prime minister will not be announced in that address
22:55to the nation.
22:56If it's not, what's Emmanuel Macron going to be saying in 90 minutes time?
23:01There could be a trick in what is reported.
23:04It could be before.
23:06There could be a statement by the ĂlysĂ©e Palace saying Emmanuel Macron is appointing
23:10X, Y, or Z to the prime minister.
23:13There were rumors today that this could come out this way, but it's a difficult, I mean,
23:21it's not easy to find the right prime minister because of all the calculations that need
23:27to be made before, hoping that this time it will pan out.
23:31He cannot make a second mistake, Michel Barnier, he won't like it, but he was clearly not the
23:39right person at the right time at the right place.
23:42Emmanuel Macron knows that he's more and more unpopular.
23:47Some on, well, the leaders of the far left clearly, and the leader of the far right as
23:53well are calling for his head to roll.
23:55Jean-Luc MĂ©lenchon wants Emmanuel Macron to resign, Marine Le Pen wants Emmanuel Macron
24:00to resign.
24:01Why?
24:02They want an early presidential election.
24:04Why MĂ©lenchon thinks he can win, Marine Le Pen has legal troubles and she wants to avoid
24:09them because she could be ruled to be unfit or incapable of running next time around because
24:17she has a legal case.
24:19So they want to hurry the political election.
24:24It's very unlikely Emmanuel Macron will make them such a favor, but the clock is ticking.
24:29This is why there's so much pressure on him.
24:32If it's not tonight because he didn't find the right solution, because yes, let's not
24:37forget, a prime minister is one thing, then the prime minister has to form a government
24:42and then the government has to essentially get a functioning majority or at least a functioning
24:48minority in parliament.
24:50And that's not so easy to find in 24 hours.
24:53Okay.
24:54So 90 minutes out.
24:55Anybody's guess what the French president is going to say on state television.
24:59This is fueling the worry over in Brussels where we can cross now to correspondent Dave
25:08Keating.
25:10We've lost the connection there with Brussels.
25:14We'll try to reconnect as quickly as possible and cross back over to Dave Keating.
25:22Mark Perlman, you'll be following that address live here on France 24.
25:26That's at 8 p.m. local time.
25:28Thanks for joining us for this special edition.