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00:00Well, we'll start here in France, where Jordan Bardella, the president of the far-right National
00:10Rally Party, says the party will back a no-confidence motion against the government in the coming
00:15days unless there is a, quote, last-minute miracle.
00:19Bardella's mentor, Marine Le Pen, has given the prime minister, Michel Barnier, a deadline
00:23of today to yield to the far-right's budget demands or face that vote that would very
00:28likely lead to the government's collapse.
00:31Barnier is proposing cutbacks and other tough new measures to finance the country's social
00:36security program.
00:37Here's more from the far-right president speaking this morning.
00:45The budget put forward by the government is a punishing budget that will slow down our
00:48country's economy.
00:50We tried up to the last minute to propose common-sense measures for the state's budget.
00:55The minister spoke yesterday, indicating that the government didn't want to budge.
00:59Insofar as Michel Barnier continues with Emmanuel Macron's policy, the Rassemblement National
01:05will, of course, back a no-confidence motion unless there is a last-minute miracle and
01:10Michel Barnier decides to revise his copy before 3 p.m.
01:14But I don't expect him to be touched by grace since we've been ignored and scorned for months.
01:24Our Clovis Casale is following the latest developments at the National Assembly in
01:28Paris and joins me now live from there.
01:30Clovis, this standoff could come to a head today if the Prime Minister uses this constitutional
01:35power, this 49.3 sometime today.
01:38But what's been happening so far this Monday?
01:40Do we have any more idea of how things could go today?
01:44A great deal of uncertainty ahead of this crucial parliamentary session.
01:49The French government fighting for its survival and ahead of this session, Prime Minister
01:55Michel Barnier has a meeting with all of his allies from the various parties who are supporting
02:02him, presumably to assess the situation, to look at possibilities, and I can tell you
02:06the possibilities are not looking good for the French government.
02:10Why?
02:11Because this budget on social security, well, the opposition, the left-wing bloc and the
02:17far right are fiercely opposed to it.
02:19They won't vote in favour of this budget.
02:22And then if Michel Barnier, the Prime Minister, uses Article 49.3, so passes the law without
02:29a vote by decree, well, the French far right and the left-wing bloc have vowed to file
02:36a motion of no confidence and that would topple the French government for sure.
02:43And then now the socialists have filed a motion of rejection.
02:47That will be studied, looked at before the vote on the budget, and if it's adopted, if
02:53it's voted in, well, that would give a few more days, a bit more time for the French
02:59government to negotiate over this budget on social security, but it's difficult to imagine
03:04the far left and the far right agreeing, voting for this motion of rejection.
03:10You heard the president of the French far right party, the National Rally, Jordan Bardella,
03:15saying this government hasn't been listening to us.
03:19It's got austerity measures in its budget and that's unacceptable for us.
03:24On the other hand, you've got the French Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, saying we did all
03:27we could to try to please everyone, but we can't spend more.
03:31The situation of France is critical and there's an urgent need to reduce public spending and
03:38that's what Michel Barnier is doing.
03:40So a lot of uncertainty today.
03:42We'll have to wait and see exactly what is decided, what is voted, and if Michel Barnier
03:48decides to trigger Article 49.3.
03:50Clovis, thank you for that.
03:52That's France 24's Clovis Casali at the National Assembly.
03:55We're going to get a bit more analysis now with French politics expert Paul Smith, who
03:59joins me from the University of Nottingham.
04:01Paul, always great to have you on the show.
04:03Thank you so much.
04:04As Clovis was saying, you know, this standoff could come to a head if the prime minister
04:08uses this aggressive constitutional quirk, if you would like to call it that, this 49.3.
04:16What exactly is that and how does it work?
04:19OK, well, if he wants to use 49.3, then what then happens is that the budget is adopted
04:26unless the opposition table a motion of censure, the equivalent of a motion of no confidence,
04:33and then that would be debated and voted on in 48 hours time.
04:37So we wouldn't actually have a final decision on that until Wednesday because the government,
04:42the constitution, has built in a kind of cooling off period.
04:46And then the government would only fall if there's an absolute majority, so 289 deputies
04:52vote in favour of the motion of no confidence.
04:55But if the government lose, Article 50 is very clear, the government has to resign.
05:00So we're waiting to see what happens today, but also how it plays out come Wednesday if
05:06we get a 49.3 today.
05:08So you've been watching French politics for a long time.
05:11What are your thoughts?
05:12How is this going to play out over the next few days?
05:15I think it's incredibly complicated.
05:16It's very interesting.
05:17Clovis was telling us there about the motion de rejet, the rejecting motion, which actually
05:23kind of buys the government a few more days.
05:25It's quite interesting that the socialists have tabled that.
05:28It's not absolutely clear to me.
05:29I'd need to think a bit more about what it is the socialists are trying to do if they
05:33really think that they're going to negotiate some kind of concessions from Barnier.
05:38Barnier hasn't talked about concessions, so perhaps he's willing to take on the left.
05:43I mean, it's the left that have tabled the motion of censure.
05:46It's really the far right, the Rassemblement National and their allies, however, that are
05:50talking about voting with the left and therefore creating a crisis where France would probably
05:56find itself in a situation of no government.
06:00I think Barnier is trying to put the pressure on to Le Pen and see if she really wants to
06:05create a very serious political crisis.
06:08Right.
06:09Because just to remind everyone, if the government were to collapse, I mean, we can't call legislative
06:13elections for another year.
06:15So in that interim time, what would happen?
06:17It would just be a stalemate.
06:18I mean, who would run the country?
06:19Well, there are lots of different possibilities.
06:23It could be that Barnier would have to resign.
06:27He'd have to stand down.
06:30He can't be kept on as caretaker indefinitely.
06:32So at some point, Macron would have to think about appointing a new ministry.
06:37And that there are kind of, you know, sort of fantasy football league people talking
06:41about a government of the centre-left to centre-right.
06:45That is pure fantasy.
06:47But the possibility of what's called a technical ministry, so members of government who would
06:52run, the ministers who would run the state until, say, next summer with no really significant
06:59they can't make proposals because they don't really have a majority to get any laws through.
07:03But they would also activate, there are articles within the constitution that would allow them
07:07to activate bills that would keep the budget running, at least perpetuate this year's budget
07:13so that you wouldn't actually have a shutdown of the French state.
07:17But there are other more extreme, there's a nuclear option, which is that Macron might
07:22even choose to activate Article 16, which would be emergency, which is an emergency law.
07:29That seems unlikely because it really is the nuclear option.
07:33There are one or two other options outside of the constitution, organic laws relating
07:37to budget and finance bills.
07:40But it is a very complicated situation through which all the players have got to try and
07:45navigate over the next three, few days.
07:47Right.
07:48And it really is complicated because, of course, here, you know, you have strangely the far
07:51right saying, no, we need more government, more protection.
07:55Don't go cutting our rights.
07:56You have Barnier saying, well, no, we're not going to survive economically if we don't cut.
08:00I mean, who is right, in your opinion?
08:03Well, I think Barnier is right in the sense that they have to be cuts.
08:06But to my mind, the far right, the Le Pen, is really provoking a crisis in order to kind
08:14of divert attention.
08:17It's a very dangerous.
08:18I mean, the left are doing what the left have to do.
08:20The left really don't support austerity and that's that's where you would expect them
08:23to be.
08:24I don't think the, you know, the National Front, sorry, the National Rally operate with
08:28a great deal of bad faith that actually their policies always favor business.
08:32They're not in favor of the of the little man and the little woman in terms of their
08:38pension rights.
08:39But that's the card that they can play at the moment because it's easy and it costs
08:44them nothing in terms of finance because they're not in government.
08:49So it's the easy option for the far right.
08:51And it allows them, as I say, to deflect attention from their own problems in the courts.
08:56Right.
08:57And I mean, this could have very long term effects.
09:00I mean, the prospect of a government collapse already sent French borrowing costs soaring
09:04last week.
09:05I mean, how bad could this make things?
09:07I think it could make things very bad for the French government.
09:09You know, France, heavens above, this is a really serious country.
09:14This is this is, you know, the fourth, fifth, sixth largest, depending on whose figures
09:18you believe, biggest economy in the world.
09:21It's a very serious player in Europe.
09:23And suddenly everything's everything's collapsing.
09:26The again, you know, the far the far right has to think very seriously about the consequences
09:32of this and the and how that would play out if it has big a big impact on the French economy
09:39and French French finances.
09:41And Le Pen has to has to think very long and hard about the implications that might
09:46have if we go into a period of technical government and then we have an election come the summer
09:53of next year.
09:55So she has to think very one hopes that she thought long and hard about about the outcome
09:59there.
10:00Right.
10:01Because we have to just remind everyone Marine Le Pen currently has her own legal problem.
10:03She's being tried for embezzling funds from the EU to pay for her own staff here at France.
10:09And what she's really risking right now is is not being eligible to run for president.
10:14I mean, you sort of mentioned this earlier, but I'm just curious to know how much all
10:17of this, in your opinion, is just smoke and mirrors to try and divert attention from her
10:21own judicial problems.
10:22I think there's a great deal of that smoke and mirrors.
10:25I think she's in a position where she she wants to kind of play the the kingmaker and
10:30the king unmaker.
10:31I mean, she was already the kingmaker in a sense when Barnier was appointed, that it
10:36was the attitude of the of the Rassemblement Nationale.
10:39But she allows Barnier to become prime minister in the first place.
10:44I think she thinks that she has nothing to lose from parliamentary chaos, which isn't
10:51actually in some ways the real chaos that is coming from the left is very interesting
10:55reporting today's Le Monde about the lack of confidence that the French are now feeling
10:59in the political system.
11:01And they feel actually that it's the far left that is causing most of this problem.
11:05But she will feel that she has a great deal to to to to gain from that.
11:10So it's partly smoke and mirrors on her part, but partly the idea that she can can benefit
11:16from this this chaotic situation.
11:18Paul, just to wrap up, I mean, what's the risk for Emmanuel Macron, the president in
11:23all of this?
11:24Or is he just sitting in the Elysee Palace, just kind of watching and waiting to see how
11:27this all shakes out?
11:28Well, I think we're into again, he's into this kind of this kind of dusk kind of presidency,
11:36the crepuscule, as the French might say, that he's played himself into a corner.
11:41He's painted himself well and truly into that corner from which he he can't escape.
11:45It's very much his fault for calling the dissolution in the first place.
11:48I mean, everything goes back to the evening of June the 9th.
11:52And, you know, it could be he does have a responsibility, Macron.
11:57Under Article five of the Constitution to ensure the regular running of le pouvoir public,
12:03of institutions, the institutions of the republic.
12:06So the big question could be at what point he he comes under scrutiny again for that.
12:13We know that the left have in the past talked about moving some kind of impeachment procedure
12:18against him.
12:19It's unlikely that that would succeed.
12:21But there are some big question marks still to be raised about his his presidency and
12:26just exactly what how he thinks he would be able to perform without a government.
12:31Paul, thank you so much for sharing your expertise with us as always.
12:35That's Paul Smith.
12:36Thank you so much.