MEDI1TV Afrique : Épisode de goutte froide en Espagne : Quel risque pour le Maroc? - 15/11/2024
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00:00Good evening, ladies and gentlemen.
00:13Floods, weather disturbances and catastrophic damage.
00:17The phenomenon of the cold drop at the heart of the news.
00:19It hits the Iberian neighbor and threatens our northern coasts.
00:24We will discuss it with our experts tonight in Question d'Actu.
00:27Why does the cold drop often cause extreme weather phenomena
00:31such as floods or flying storms?
00:34Can such a phenomenon be predicted effectively?
00:37What are the challenges for local authorities in managing the damage
00:41caused by this famous cold drop?
00:44With more than 260 deaths in Spain, how to avoid this?
00:48What are the potential mechanisms to be put in place
00:51to deal with the vulnerability of cities
00:53to increasingly violent climate phenomena?
00:56And the question in this context of the COP, which is held in Azerbaijan.
01:00Is there a clear link with global warming?
01:04To answer these questions, I am joined by the climatologist,
01:07Professor Mohamed Saeed Kharrouk.
01:09Good evening and welcome to this show.
01:11Good evening.
01:12I also have the pleasure of welcoming the strategic director
01:16of the Science Policy Platform for Climate Urgencies,
01:19Professor Khalid Tamsamani.
01:22Good evening.
01:23Good evening, Khadija. Thank you for the invitation.
01:25Thank you for agreeing to answer our questions.
01:27The first question is from a purely scientific point of view.
01:31What is Morocco at risk after floods,
01:35especially recently in Malaga?
01:38Professor Kharrouk.
01:39The cold drop is a very common meteorological event in our regions.
01:46This is not the first time it has happened.
01:48But this time, it happened in somewhat special conditions
01:52that did not happen before.
01:55This is directly linked to global warming, to global warming,
02:01because the cold drop, in itself, as a definition,
02:04is a part of cold air that detaches from the sea mass of cold air
02:10and then enters a larger mass of air, which is hot, very hot,
02:16where there is a lot of water vapor.
02:18This intrusion creates a vertical movement of air from top to bottom
02:23and from bottom to top,
02:24which means that there is a cooling of the hot mass
02:28and then a condensation and a deluge of this water vapor
02:31that was in the atmosphere,
02:33a part of it at least, and returned to the ground.
02:36And since this water vapor was huge,
02:43it often caused floods.
02:46By the way, most of the floods that took place in Morocco
02:49were caused by...
02:53The major floods were caused by cold drops,
02:57but also by aversions.
02:59Aversions are not the case here.
03:01It's the cold drop.
03:04But in Spain, what happened was that an atmospheric atmosphere
03:09that is very hot,
03:11and we leave the summer season behind us,
03:15where it was hot, where the evaporation was huge
03:20and it spread, it stayed in the sky.
03:23And back to autumn, we are in autumn,
03:28so the temperature must drop.
03:30It dropped to the north around the pole
03:33and this detachment
03:36therefore disrupted the stability of this mass of air
03:40that was above North Africa, but also Spain.
03:44And to this, we must add the part, the cherry on the cake,
03:49which is that of the port of the Western Mediterranean,
03:52which is also hot,
03:54and which fed the already disturbed disturbance.
03:58That's what happened.
03:59So cold drops and cyclones,
04:01what are the common points and the differences?
04:03Is it the same thing?
04:05No, it's not the same thing, it has nothing to do with it.
04:07Cyclones are much more ferocious meteorological events
04:10than cold drops,
04:12which are born in equatorial areas,
04:14where it is very hot, above the oceans.
04:17They move above the oceans,
04:20towards the south-north,
04:22rather south-north-east,
04:26and moving north,
04:28if the course of the oceans is still hot.
04:33This is the case, for example,
04:35with the United States of America,
04:37or Central America,
04:39the Gulf of Mexico.
04:42It gives even more energy,
04:45and once on the ground,
04:48it brings all the water vapor from the ocean,
04:52and then it diverts it in a very dramatic way,
04:58because the result, the infrastructure does not support that.
05:02Even the most developed infrastructures.
05:04We have the example of the United States of America,
05:06the last cyclone, the hurricane,
05:08it destroyed the states of the south-west of the United States of America.
05:13Especially Florida.
05:14But when we say that,
05:17for example, this phenomenon of the cold drop,
05:20you said it's not the first time.
05:21It's not the first time.
05:22But is it not moving to the south?
05:24Because the times when European countries were affected,
05:28it was more northern countries,
05:29Germany, France, Luxembourg.
05:31And I come back to my first question,
05:34what is Morocco at risk?
05:35Is Morocco at risk?
05:36Maybe it doesn't move like cyclones,
05:40but what happened in Spain,
05:42is it also at risk of affecting Morocco?
05:45And is it the same intensity?
05:47It should concern a lot of our viewers.
05:50I will answer you directly by affirmative.
05:53What happened in Spain,
05:55it could have happened in Morocco.
05:57Because we have the same climate,
05:59we have the same weather conditions,
06:01and we have more or less the same topographic conditions,
06:04the geography.
06:05But only, thank God,
06:08the temperature has dropped in Morocco.
06:11Fortunately.
06:12If the temperature had not dropped in Morocco,
06:14we would have had damage,
06:16similar problems.
06:18Maybe less, because when it started,
06:21when this cold drop started in Spain,
06:24it warmed up a bit,
06:25but the hot air also cooled down.
06:30There is less gap, isn't there?
06:32But the drop in temperature in Morocco saved us.
06:36Thank God.
06:37We have to say things like that.
06:39So the current conditions,
06:41that's the most dangerous.
06:43It's the temperature.
06:45It's not the cold drop itself.
06:47Because the cold drop,
06:48we are used to it during the autumn season,
06:50that it is realized,
06:52but in completely different conditions.
06:54I remind you that the global temperature
06:57only increases.
06:59And that's the real danger of the planet,
07:01of the whole planet,
07:02not only what is happening in Morocco and Spain.
07:06And if this temperature does not stabilize,
07:10it means that if the energy balance of the planet does not stabilize,
07:13we are lost in the future.
07:15We don't know what can happen tomorrow.
07:17We don't know.
07:18But it's clear,
07:19with the increase in temperature,
07:20only misfortunes.
07:21Only misfortunes.
07:22Very clear.
07:23So now it should stabilize.
07:25If it doesn't stabilize,
07:27the question is that we can't manage it as it should.
07:30We manage a situation that is stable,
07:32a situation that evolves.
07:34We will develop means today,
07:36but tomorrow we will have another problem.
07:38Are we heading towards the stabilization
07:42of this global warming,
07:44Professor Thmsamani?
07:46Well, I'm afraid to be a little pessimistic
07:50about this question,
07:52but I'm going to complete what my friend Said Kharlouq said
07:56and answer your question.
07:58We are on planet Earth
08:02and we are consuming
08:05wrongly and wrongly,
08:07especially fossil fuels.
08:09We are emitting huge amounts of CO2
08:12and other greenhouse gases,
08:14methane and others.
08:15That said, in Africa we are the least polluting.
08:17We are the least polluting,
08:18but it is a global affair.
08:19But know that when we are there,
08:21at 10,000 meters above our heads,
08:24things happen.
08:26Things like
08:28we are emitting greenhouse gases
08:32in huge quantities,
08:34annually 40 gigatons on average,
08:36CO2 equivalent per year,
08:39as I said,
08:40a mixture of gas,
08:42methane and CO2,
08:44and that this amount of greenhouse gas
08:46at about 10,000 meters above our heads
08:48meets our jet stream.
08:51Because what is the cause of everything we are experiencing?
08:54The jet stream that regulates the temperature of the Earth.
08:57Exactly.
08:58It is a stream of air,
08:59a stream of air
09:00that can reach a speed of 400 km per hour
09:03and thanks to this speed
09:06and its existence,
09:08it stabilizes, as you just said,
09:10the whole meteorological phenomenon
09:12around the globe,
09:14because there is this temperature gradient
09:17that is due to a pressure gradient
09:19between the Arctic,
09:21so a very cold temperature,
09:23a very cold air,
09:24and everything that is at the level of the tropics,
09:26hot air that rises,
09:27and there is this difference,
09:29this delta P, as we say,
09:31that generates a delta T
09:32and that gives this jet stream.
09:34Now, what is happening
09:36is that the very large,
09:38high presence of concentration of greenhouse gases
09:40at 10,000 meters above our heads
09:44creates a certain energy
09:46that generates a warming
09:48at this level,
09:49of the troposphere,
09:51which will reduce
09:53the energy of this jet stream.
09:55It reduces it.
09:57It will exceed it
09:59less rapidly.
10:00And at a certain point,
10:02it becomes undulating.
10:03And the fact that it becomes undulating
10:05will eject a little bit towards us,
10:07a little lower than 10,000 meters,
10:09very fresh air pockets,
10:11very cold.
10:12These air pockets,
10:14because of the warming
10:16of the Mediterranean,
10:18as Said said,
10:20of the Mediterranean sea,
10:22the water vapors,
10:23the humidity,
10:24which is very high,
10:25the temperature,
10:26it gets closer to this mass of fresh air
10:28and it creates what the Spaniards call
10:30the Dana.
10:32It's a depression.
10:34In Spanish, it's a high-level
10:36isolated depression.
10:38It's the equivalent of a cold drop.
10:39It's the same thing.
10:40That's it.
10:41Now, that's why I always say,
10:43the problem has its origins,
10:45its roots.
10:46We're talking about extreme meteorological phenomena,
10:48but the sixth report of the GIEC,
10:50he said it,
10:52we're going to have extreme phenomena
10:54that are going to happen in cascades, aren't they?
10:56And the frequency is going to be higher and higher.
10:58And because of this deregulation
11:00in a global way,
11:01it's going to happen in Morocco as in Spain.
11:03Is it new in the modern history of humanity?
11:05Some say it's alarmism.
11:08Is it new in the modern history
11:10of man
11:12with a big H?
11:14Listen, for more than 10 years,
11:16we've been talking about it.
11:18And every time, scientists keep
11:20ringing the alarm bell,
11:22producing reports, scientific publications,
11:24and showing that this system
11:26is evolving towards something
11:28that may become irreversible.
11:30What is irreversible?
11:32Irreversible means that if now
11:34the climate tends towards
11:36a system of meteorological effects
11:40and extreme in cascades,
11:42this rhythm, you can't
11:44slow it down.
11:46That's it.
11:48It's already gone.
11:50And now, if we're a few weeks
11:52from 2025,
11:54and if we don't peak
11:56greenhouse gas emissions
11:58in 2025,
12:00so that in 2030
12:02or rather at the end of the century
12:04we can maintain the temperature
12:06of 1.5 around the globe,
12:08then it will become
12:10an irreversible situation.
12:12And what does that mean?
12:14Does that mean that in 2030,
12:16halve our emissions,
12:1845 to 50%,
12:20have carbon neutrality
12:22in 2050,
12:24maintain the temperature
12:26of 1.5 in 2100?
12:28That's why I'm pessimistic.
12:30You also say that you don't
12:32seem very convinced
12:34of the commitment of countries
12:36like Morocco.
12:38Morocco is an exception.
12:40Yes, but of course.
12:42But a hand can't claim,
12:44as we say in Arabic,
12:46because all countries have to die.
12:48And the biggest polluters.
12:50The G20 alone pollutes
12:5275% of greenhouse gas emissions,
12:54just the G20.
12:56And now, if in Baku, for example,
12:58if we don't make the decision,
13:00because everything depends on money,
13:02on climate finance,
13:04I can't put in place
13:06early warning systems
13:08with forecast strategies,
13:10with satellite observations.
13:12These are phenomena that can be predicted.
13:14If we put in place the means,
13:16and that's what Gutierrez
13:18launched in 2022,
13:20it's an Earth observation system,
13:22an early warning system
13:24that starts in 2023
13:26until 2027
13:28with something like
13:3031 billion dollars.
13:32It's an initiative he launched
13:34so that no one is left behind.
13:36Even developed countries.
13:38These extreme phenomena
13:40affect everyone.
13:42Like Morocco, like Spain.
13:44But there are countries
13:46that are more vulnerable than us.
13:48There are insular states
13:50that don't have the means.
13:52You saw what happened in Pakistan
13:54before the Chagham-El-Sheikh coup.
13:56It was catastrophic.
13:58It was hundreds of millions of deaths.
14:00If we don't do anything
14:02about climate change,
14:04because I talk a lot about climate change,
14:06if we don't do anything,
14:08we'll go straight to the wall.
14:10And for that, now in Chagham-El-Sheikh,
14:12last year we put in place
14:14the Losses and Damages Fund.
14:16Now we need to be able to feed it
14:18sufficiently with means
14:20so that vulnerable countries
14:22can benefit quickly
14:24from January, February 2025.
14:26Because now it's a question
14:28of pushing the button
14:30and giving money to these countries.
14:32But now we're at 700 billion dollars.
14:34700 billion dollars,
14:36which is not a lot.
14:38While the African group,
14:40the highest pressure group
14:42with the G77 plus China
14:44at the COP,
14:46is asking that,
14:48in the context of this new
14:50financial objective,
14:52we reach 1.3 trillion dollars
14:54annually from 2025 to 2030.
14:56Every year,
14:58the international community,
15:00especially developing countries
15:02and countries that are very weak,
15:04should be able to receive funding
15:06not only for adaptation,
15:08but also,
15:10and this is important,
15:12to deal with damage and risk.
15:14And when I talk about losses and damages,
15:16as everyone knows,
15:18there is a part that is quantified,
15:20but there is a part that is not quantified.
15:22And in particular,
15:24human losses, unfortunately.
15:26There were more than 200 deaths,
15:28260 deaths in Spain.
15:30It's all recent,
15:32it's during this month of November.
15:34But there are also
15:36entire ecosystems
15:38that are affected.
15:40There are human losses,
15:42there are ecosystems,
15:44there are water resources,
15:46there are infrastructures,
15:48there is everything.
15:50And that, there are things,
15:52and we will see what will happen
15:54in the coming days,
15:56but now we have to put in place
15:58guidelines to be able to say,
16:00this project is eligible
16:02to be funded by the Damage Loss Fund.
16:04And so there are criteria.
16:06But sometimes there are projects
16:08where you can't, you don't know
16:10how to classify them.
16:12We just talked about human losses,
16:14about immaterial heritage.
16:16A Casablanca that attracted
16:1810 million tourists per year
16:20in a certain region of Morocco.
16:22If it is destroyed,
16:24is it economic or non-economic?
16:26We need experts to quantify all this.
16:28Speaking of experts,
16:30because quantifying is enough.
16:32I come back to this element
16:34which is very important,
16:36which is prediction.
16:38For example, for Spain,
16:40they don't have the means
16:42to have the necessary
16:44predictive means.
16:46They are still tools,
16:48but they didn't see this disaster coming.
16:50Knowing that, yes,
16:52risk management
16:54has been questioned
16:56and, indeed,
16:58we said there was a failure
17:00in disaster management,
17:02but couldn't we predict this
17:04to at least reduce
17:06human losses?
17:08I would like to come back
17:10to this issue of climate warming
17:12where we only talk about CO2,
17:14as if CO2 is the only
17:16responsible for climate warming.
17:18There is something else
17:20we don't talk about in the COP,
17:22which is the evolution
17:24of the functions of the soil.
17:26Humans have completely
17:28shifted the nature of the soil
17:30by developing infrastructures
17:32all around the world.
17:34It is mandatory.
17:36Highways, wheat fields,
17:38vast fields, etc.
17:40By intervening in this way,
17:42we are disconnecting
17:44the Earth's energy balance
17:46from the soil.
17:48The planetary energy balance
17:50is based on what happens
17:52when the sun hits the ground
17:54and what should go away.
17:56When we change the functions of the soil,
17:58we also change the interactions
18:00of the energy balance.
18:02It turns out that today,
18:04for a long time,
18:06this energy balance only increases.
18:08Among the reasons,
18:10there is this evolution,
18:12the evolution of the soil.
18:14This is a very specialized
18:16and thorough question
18:18through which we can see
18:20the evolution of the energy balance.
18:22I have been working on this
18:24for a long time.
18:26I have results for Morocco.
18:28I would say that Morocco
18:30has been in an area
18:32where the energy balance
18:34is totally exceptional.
18:36There is no deficit balance
18:38that existed until the 1980s,
18:40but it existed.
18:42Today, it no longer exists.
18:44The phase of exceeding
18:46this energy balance
18:48is more or less
18:50at the level of 43 degrees north,
18:52that is, above Spain.
18:54To return to your question,
18:56did the Spaniards
18:58not see this data coming?
19:00Yes, they saw it,
19:02but they did not have the ability
19:04to calculate
19:06the effects on the soil.
19:08This has already happened
19:10in the United States,
19:12at the level of Milton.
19:14There are forecasters
19:16and action forecasters.
19:18They were crying
19:20because they saw something
19:22they had never seen before.
19:24This is also the case
19:26for the Spaniards.
19:28There is another thing
19:30that complicates the situation.
19:32The infrastructures
19:34today at the global level
19:36have evolved
19:38in reference
19:40to a climate
19:42that no longer exists.
19:44This is very important.
19:46When we calculate
19:48a sanitation network in a city,
19:50there are calculations,
19:52there are data.
19:54We don't do it by chance.
19:56It turns out that
19:58what currently exists
20:00as an infrastructure
20:02was made for a climate
20:04that has completely changed.
20:08The biggest difficulty
20:10at the global level
20:12is to rehabilitate
20:14the existing infrastructure.
20:16Here, I have to take
20:18total infrastructure,
20:20including social infrastructure.
20:22When you say infrastructure,
20:24you mean roads,
20:26canals, everything?
20:28Exactly.
20:30To give you an example,
20:32to rehabilitate
20:34the sanitation network
20:36that is more than 300 km long,
20:38it takes at least
20:4030 years
20:44to do it.
20:46We don't have this time.
20:48During this time,
20:50we will not block the whole city.
20:52There is an example
20:54at the Casablanca level.
20:56The authorities have developed
20:58and understood.
21:00The idea that was
21:02in front of the authorities
21:04has been understood.
21:06A large canal
21:08at the Casablanca level
21:10had to be expanded
21:12on the current boulevard,
21:14Boulevard 26.
21:16It is the largest collector.
21:18To do this work,
21:20we had to block the whole boulevard.
21:22Blocking this boulevard
21:24means blocking the city.
21:26Rehabilitating the entire network
21:28is very delicate
21:30from a time and social point of view.
21:32From a functioning point of view.
21:34A city works with all its components.
21:36To do this,
21:38we would have to add money.
21:40It costs a lot of money.
21:42The money we talked about.
21:44Yes, the money.
21:46Apart from the political decision,
21:48apart from everyone's good faith,
21:50apart from everyone's responsibility,
21:52everyone does their job, etc.
21:54The Casablanca floods,
21:56for example, in 2010,
21:58it was because the infrastructure
22:00was not made for the floods
22:02that took place.
22:04This would happen all over the world.
22:06Not only in Casablanca,
22:08not only in Spain.
22:10Now, to see the responsibilities,
22:12I'm not going to
22:14get into
22:16this question.
22:18I stay in nature,
22:20don't I?
22:22I say that
22:24what is happening now,
22:26what happened in Spain,
22:28it happens for the first time.
22:30It was the same case in Casablanca in 2010.
22:32And more or less,
22:34if you will,
22:36we cannot blame people
22:38for a functioning that has just fallen from the sky.
22:40It's difficult.
22:42On the other hand,
22:44we can go back to other realities.
22:46For example, when you build
22:48in flood zones,
22:50it's illegal.
22:52It's like what happened
22:54in Tata
22:56and in the south of Morocco in September.
22:58It's new.
23:00We should not blame people
23:02for having managed it badly.
23:04No, they managed it.
23:06They managed what happened
23:08by means of borders.
23:10Because what happened in Tata
23:12is an event outside the region.
23:14It's an event that came from the flood zone.
23:16And we are not in the flood zone.
23:18The flood zone is...
23:20It looks like a cyclone.
23:24So, what happened
23:26now is an alert for the future.
23:28They are not responsible for what happened today,
23:30but they are responsible
23:32for what will happen in the years to come.
23:34Yes, this motion will come back.
23:36Since it arrived in 2007
23:38in Mauritania,
23:40today it comes to China, to Tunisia.
23:42The year after, we don't know.
23:44Because this warming does not stop.
23:46This is the great complication
23:48that humanity has
23:50regarding the management of all risks.
23:52Yes.
23:54One last word.
23:56The teachings of Professor Zamsamani
23:58of the past events linked to the cold
24:00to improve.
24:02There is, naturally,
24:04finance, but not only.
24:06Everything is linked
24:08to finance.
24:10The question here
24:12is global cooperation,
24:14partnership.
24:16We have climate
24:18and meteorological
24:20observation systems
24:22through satellite systems.
24:24This exists.
24:26Where is this international cooperation
24:28between countries?
24:30There is a World Meteorological Organization,
24:32the WMO.
24:34Can't we put these big means
24:36at the service of small countries
24:38that do not have the means
24:40to monitor?
24:42First, we must have
24:44climate and meteorological data.
24:46This data,
24:48researchers can have it
24:50and look for it.
24:52But these researchers
24:54need financial resources
24:56to develop their research,
24:58their laboratories,
25:00recruit PhD students,
25:02researchers, to be able to find it.
25:04Then we say to ourselves,
25:06we don't have the information,
25:08but if you don't support the university
25:10in a general way,
25:12to develop research,
25:14produce data,
25:16and present it to politicians,
25:18that's why we created the Science Policy Platform
25:20for Climate Urgency,
25:22to bring scientists
25:24and politicians together.
25:26They need to discuss together.
25:28Right now,
25:30many people are discussing,
25:32but sometimes you have the technician
25:34in the negotiating room alone,
25:36and then the diplomat,
25:38the politician,
25:40and sometimes it's the politician
25:42who has the last word.
25:44For climate finance,
25:46and finance in general,
25:48we need to give the exact information
25:50to politicians,
25:52but it must be easy to understand,
25:54because sometimes we tend
25:56to complicate things.
25:58But it must be easy to understand
26:00so that politicians can defend it
26:02and have the means they need.
26:04So it's very important
26:06to have information,
26:08to support scientists,
26:10to support researchers,
26:12and that politicians sit down
26:14with scientists,
26:16discuss together,
26:18and come up with solutions
26:20to solve the problems of the planet.
26:22In the end,
26:24it's also us,
26:26individually,
26:28it's also the individuals
26:30who have a share of responsibility,
26:32then the communities,
26:34the countries,
26:36and then the scientists.
26:38Thank you very much.
26:40Thank you, Professor Saeed-Kharrouk,
26:42for enriching this debate
26:44and maybe also awakening
26:46the consciousness.
26:48You talked about data,
26:50there's also this alert
26:52from the General Director of Meteorology,
26:54a snow and wind alert,
26:56a major storm that may hit
26:58several provinces,
27:00so be careful on this weekend.
27:02This is the end of this show.
27:04Transcription by ESO, translation by —