As Tropical Storm “Ofel” (international name: Usagi) continues to weaken while slowly moving over the Sea West of Taiwan, Typhoon “Pepito” (international name: Man-yi) is intensifying and nearing the super typhoon category.
In its 5 a.m. tropical cyclone bulletin issued on Saturday, Nov. 16, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the center of “Ofel” was estimated to be 240 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes. It has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 90 km/h, moving slowly north-northeastward.
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/11/16/pepito-nears-super-typhoon-category
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In its 5 a.m. tropical cyclone bulletin issued on Saturday, Nov. 16, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the center of “Ofel” was estimated to be 240 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes. It has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 90 km/h, moving slowly north-northeastward.
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/11/16/pepito-nears-super-typhoon-category
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NewsTranscript
00:01Our latest location for Baguio-Pepito as of 4 a.m. today
00:05is here at 305 kilometers east of Katarman, Northern Samar.
00:10The wind is still strong and as of 4 a.m.
00:14the wind speed has increased to 175 kilometers per hour
00:19and when it opened, it reached 215 kilometers per hour.
00:23It continues to move north-westward at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour.
00:28This is the Sea Ophel, another tropical storm.
00:32Our latest location is at 140 kilometers northwest of Itbayat, Batanes.
00:38The wind is still strong and as of 4 a.m.
00:40the wind speed has increased to 175 kilometers per hour
00:43and when it opened, it reached 215 kilometers per hour.
00:46It continues to move north-northeastward at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour.
00:50And as of now, the Sea Ophel is still floating
00:53with heavy rainfall in the areas of Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
00:58Meanwhile, the Sea Storm Pepito, as we can see here in our latest satellite images,
01:03the heavy rainfall here in the periphery of Baguio
01:07is starting to emerge here in a large part of Cabiculan
01:12as well as here in some areas of Samar Island.
01:16We hope that Pepito will continue to approach
01:19a large part of Luzon, including Metro Manila.
01:21It will be a dark time now.
01:24We hope that it will be a bright time
01:26as they are a part of Luzon and Visayas.
01:30And this is our latest track and intensity forecast for the Sea Storm Ophel.
01:35We still hope that it will continue to move north-northwestward
01:40as mentioned by the storm.
01:41It is possible that it will pass or affect the southern portion of Taiwan.
01:45And for the remainder of the forecast period,
01:47we will see that it will continue to heat up.
01:49It is possible that within the next 12 hours,
01:51it will only be a tropical depression.
01:53It is possible that it will downgrade into a low-pressure area tomorrow
01:57or possibly earlier.
01:58So as long as it is within our Philippine area of responsibility,
02:01the Sea Storm Ophel will melt.
02:05What we need to pay more attention to is the upcoming Sea Storm Pepito.
02:10So for now, we have three landfall scenarios.
02:12I will list them one by one.
02:14First, this is our landfall scenario.
02:15This is the most likely scenario.
02:17This means that this is what we expect to happen for now.
02:22So the general north-westward movement of the so-called storm will continue
02:27for the next three days.
02:28And it is possible that later tonight or early tomorrow,
02:31the center of the eye of the Sea Storm Ophel will landfall
02:35in the vicinity of the Catanduanes area.
02:39We still have two more scenarios.
02:40So we will see here in our track and intensity forecast,
02:44what we call the confidence cone.
02:46This will still cover a large part of the eastern Luzon
02:49as well as the eastern section of the central and southern Luzon.
02:53So we expect that there are more scenarios that we are looking at
02:56that are suitable for our landfall.
02:58So our second landfall scenario,
03:00the landfall here is still possible on the eastern coast of Camarines Sur.
03:07It can also be here on the eastern coast of Albay or the eastern coast of Sorsogon,
03:11possibly tonight or early tomorrow.
03:13So these are the areas of the confidence cone.
03:16We are ready for the possibility of landfall over these areas.
03:22Our third landfall scenario is here on the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora
03:28tomorrow afternoon or evening.
03:31So we expect that once this storm lands,
03:35possibly here in the Catanduanes area,
03:37there will be a second landfall on the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora
03:41tomorrow afternoon.
03:42or evening.
03:44So we need to pay attention
03:47because the storm will not landfall on us,
03:49it does not mean that we will not feel the strong effects of this.
03:54So the storm is not just one point,
03:56the effect of the Pepito storm is wide.
03:59So we expect that as it approaches our land,
04:02the impacts that we expect brought by the storm,
04:05first of all, this strong wind,
04:08possibly this eastern section of Luzon
04:11as well as this eastern section of Eastern Visayas.
04:14We also expect heavy rainfall in most of Luzon area.
04:18And third, there is also the possibility of storm surge,
04:22especially in low-lying or coastal areas.
04:26And we expect that while the Pepito storm is at sea,
04:32its intensification will continue.
04:35It is possible that it will intensify into a super typhoon category
04:40in the coming hours prior to landfall in the areas that I mentioned.
04:46And after landfall, we expect a slight weakening
04:50or a partial weakening of the storm,
04:52possible by Monday.
04:54It will become a severe tropical storm
04:56where it is outside of our Philippine area of responsibility.
05:01And because the center of the Pepito storm is closer to our land,
05:06we have increased the tropical cyclone wind signal number three.
05:09So as of 5 a.m. today,
05:12we have a warning lead time of 18 hours.
05:16We expect strong winds in the areas under wind signal number three.
05:21As of 5 a.m., there is signal number three in Catanduanes,
05:24in the eastern portion of Albay,
05:26in the eastern portion of Camarinesur,
05:29in the easternmost portion of Sorsogon,
05:32and in the northernmost portion of Eastern Samar.
05:38We expect signal number two as of 5 a.m. today
05:42in the southernmost portion of Camarinesur,
05:45in the rest of Albay,
05:46in the rest of Sorsogon,
05:48in Tikau Island,
05:50in the northernmost portion of Camarines Norte,
05:52and in the easternmost portion of Mainland Quezon.
05:55So, including here, the Polilio Islands.
05:58We also have signal number two in some areas of Visayas,
06:01in the northern portion of Eastern Samar,
06:05here in the northern portion of Samar,
06:09and in the western portion of Northern Samar.
06:12And signal number one,
06:14there is a warning lead time of 36 hours.
06:17So, these areas are possible.
06:18We haven't experienced any wind gusts yet.
06:20But because of the lead time,
06:23for the next 36 hours,
06:24we will start to experience strong winds
06:27that will bring close to us the Pepito Storm.
06:29So, in the western portion of Masbate,
06:32including Boreas Island,
06:34here in the area of Marinduque,
06:36in the western portion of Quezon,
06:38here in the area of Laguna,
06:40in Rizal,
06:41here in Cavite,
06:43in Batangas,
06:44Metro Manila,
06:45in the area of Zambales,
06:47Bataan,
06:48Bulacan,
06:49Pampanga,
06:50Tarlac.
06:52Signal number one here in the area of Nueva Ecija,
06:55in Aurora,
06:56Nueva Izcaya,
06:58here in the area of Quirino,
07:00here in the area of Isabela,
07:02central and southern portions of Cagayan,
07:06Pangasinan,
07:07La Union,
07:08Ilocosur.
07:10Signal number one here in the area of Abra,
07:13southern portion of Apayao,
07:15Calinga,
07:16Mountain Province,
07:17Ifugao,
07:18and Benguet.
07:20In the area of Visayas and Mindanao,
07:23signal number one here in the eastern portion of Eastern Samar,
07:27in the eastern portion of Samar,
07:29here in Biliran,
07:30northern and central portions of Leyte,
07:34here in the northeastern portion of southern Leyte,
07:38northernmost portion of Cebu,
07:41including here in the area of Bantayan Islands,
07:43this northernmost portion of Iloilo,
07:47and this northern portion of Dinagat Islands,
07:49in the area of Mindanao.
07:50In the areas I mentioned,
07:51especially areas under wind signal number two
07:54and wind signal number three,
07:55we expect that we will experience stronger winds
07:59because the center of our eyes is near
08:01Baguio-Pepito in our country.
08:03So let's get ready.
08:05Let's continue to prepare for the strong winds
08:08brought by the near-by Baguio-Pepito.
08:12In terms of heavy rainfall,
08:13or the strong rains brought by the typhoon,
08:16as early as today,
08:17so the rains we expect are getting stronger,
08:20intense torrential rains.
08:21These are the areas shaded by red
08:23here in the area of Catanduanes.
08:25Heavy to intense rains,
08:26areas shaded by orange.
08:28So we expect for today,
08:29here in the area of Camarines Sur,
08:31Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar.
08:34Moderate to heavy rains,
08:35these are the areas shaded by yellow
08:37in the provinces of Camarines Norte,
08:39Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate,
08:42Samar, Biliran, and Leyte.
08:47And as the center of Baguio-Pepito
08:50is in the area of Luzon,
08:52so we expect that the rains will be stronger
08:55in the eastern part of the Luzon area.
08:57And we will see that a large part of Luzon
08:59already has colors.
09:00So this means that most of the Luzon area
09:03will already experience heavy rains.
09:05So tomorrow, Sunday,
09:07this is the peak of our rains.
09:09And this is the time period
09:11where the center of Baguio-Pepito is closest
09:13and this will start to weaken
09:15the large part of the Luzon area.
09:17So we expect intense torrential rains,
09:19again, these are the areas shaded by red
09:22in the province of Aurora
09:24and in the area of Quezon.
09:26Heavy to intense rains,
09:27these are the areas shaded by orange
09:29in the provinces of Pangasinan,
09:31Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Nueva Ecija,
09:34Bulacan, and Camarines Norte.
09:37Moderate to heavy rains,
09:38these are the areas shaded by yellow
09:40in the provinces of Baboyan Islands,
09:44Mainland Cagayan, Calinga, Ilocos Sur,
09:47Mountain Province, Ifugao, Isabela,
09:50La Union, Benguet, Zambales,
09:53Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan,
09:56Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite,
09:59Laguna, Batangas, Marinduque,
10:02and Camarines Sur.
10:04And when Monday arrives,
10:06so on Monday,
10:08this is where we're at,
10:09this is where the center of Baguio-Pepito
10:11is located,
10:12so it's here in the West Philippine Sea.
10:14So as expected,
10:15we will experience
10:17heavier rainfall.
10:19As the rainfall we will experience
10:21decreases,
10:22the areas that will experience
10:24rain will also decrease.
10:25However,
10:26we are still hoping
10:27that we will have
10:28heavy rainfall here
10:29in some parts of the Luzon
10:30because we are hoping
10:32that this significant rainfall
10:33in the coming days
10:34will be possible,
10:35the land here will be saturated.
10:37So the chances of flooding
10:39in this area are still high.
10:40So nevertheless,
10:41on Monday,
10:42moderate to heavy rains,
10:43we are hoping for
10:44the provinces of Ilocos Sur,
10:46La Union,
10:47Pangasinan,
10:48and Zambales.
10:49For now,
10:50especially in the areas I mentioned,
10:52the areas shaded by orange
10:54as well as the areas shaded by red,
10:56intense to torrential rains
10:57are what we are hoping for there.
10:59Heavy to intense rains
11:01are also what we are hoping for
11:02on some of those areas.
11:04We should be prepared
11:05for the chances of flooding
11:06and landslides
11:08because we are hoping
11:09for these strong rains
11:12as early as today.
11:14This will continue until tomorrow.
11:18One of the impacts
11:19that we need to be prepared for
11:20is the upcoming storm surge
11:23or storm surge.
11:26The latest issuance
11:28of storm surge warning
11:29as of 2 a.m. today,
11:32we are hoping for
11:33more than 3 meters high
11:35storm surge
11:36in some coastal communities
11:39of Quezon Province.
11:40These include
11:41Bayan ng Kalawag,
11:42Gumaca,
11:43Lopel,
11:44Plaridel,
11:45and Quezon.
11:47We are hoping for
11:482.1 to 3 meters high storm surge
11:51in the coastlines of Albay,
11:54in the area of Aurora,
11:56in the town of San Juan,
11:58in the area of Batangas,
12:00in the coastlines of Camarines Norte,
12:03Camarines Sur,
12:05in Catanduanes,
12:06in Eastern Samar,
12:08in the area of Isabela,
12:09Northern Samar,
12:11and several coastlines
12:13of Quezon Province
12:14as well as the area of Sorsogon.
12:18We are hoping for
12:191 to 2 meters high storm surge
12:21or storm surge
12:22in the coastlines of Bataan,
12:26in Batangas,
12:27some areas of Bulacan,
12:29in the area of Cavite,
12:31Ilocos Norte,
12:33Ilocos Sur,
12:34in La Union,
12:36in the coastlines of Marinduque,
12:38here in Masbate,
12:39in Metro Manila,
12:41here in Pangasinan,
12:42Pampanga,
12:44some coastlines of Samar,
12:47here in Sorsogon,
12:48and in the area of Zambales.
12:51So in the areas I mentioned,
12:53especially in some parts
12:55of Quezon Province,
12:57so for now,
12:58let's get ready,
12:59let's go,
13:00especially our fellow countrymen
13:02in low-lying or coastal areas
13:05because we are hoping
13:06to see an increase
13:08in the waves
13:10in these areas.
13:11So let us ask
13:12our local governments
13:14to prepare for this storm surge.
13:16This storm surge
13:17is one of the most dangerous
13:19effects of a nearby storm.
13:21So let's not wait
13:22for the center of the storm
13:24to reach our locality.
13:27Just now,
13:28we issued a storm surge warning.
13:29I repeat,
13:30this area of Quezon Province,
13:32some coastlines along this area,
13:34should be prepared
13:35for a storm surge.
13:36Just for now.
13:38And in terms of our ocean,
13:40as of 5 a.m. today,
13:41we have already issued
13:43a gale warning
13:44in a large part of
13:45Eastern Southern Luzon
13:46as well as Eastern Visayas.
13:48So let me list them one by one.
13:49We have a gale warning
13:50in the coastlines
13:52or coastal areas
13:53in Catanduanes,
13:54the northern and eastern coasts
13:56of Camarines Sur,
13:58the northern coast
13:59of Camarines Norte,
14:01there is also a gale warning
14:02here in Northern Samar,
14:03the eastern coast
14:04of Eastern Samar,
14:07the eastern coast
14:08of Polillo Islands
14:09in Albay, Sorsogon,
14:12as well as in Tikau
14:14and Buryas Islands.
14:15So to our countrymen,
14:16fishermen,
14:17and those who are concerned
14:18about sea traffic
14:19in these areas,
14:20let's not panic
14:22because we will experience
14:23a surge
14:24that will reach
14:25the very edge of the ocean
14:26brought by the upcoming
14:27Pepito Storm.
14:29And these are the areas
14:31that are outside
14:32gale warning areas.
14:33We will still experience
14:34a surge
14:35in the coastal areas
14:36of Dinagat Islands
14:37and Northern Quezon,
14:38seaboards of Isabela,
14:40Surigao del Norte,
14:41including Siargao
14:42and Bocas Garandia Islands,
14:44remaining seaboards
14:45of Polillo Islands
14:46and Quezon,
14:47Bicol Region,
14:48and Eastern Visayas.
14:49We are also expecting
14:50a surge
14:51in the eastern seaboards
14:52of Cagayan,
14:53Baboyan Islands,
14:54seaboard of Surigao del Sur,
14:56seaboards of Marinduque,
14:58Romblon,
14:59and Northern Cebu.
15:01To our fellow Filipinos
15:02who will be sailing
15:03in these areas,
15:04please be careful
15:05in the very edge
15:06of the ocean
15:07brought by the upcoming
15:08Pepito Storm.