The German and French political crises and the economic challenges that come with them could weaken Franco-German leadership and affect the EU's ability to present a united front in key negotiations.
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00:00The Franco-German alliance has stalled. Weakened domestically, both governments now face greater
00:10challenges in promoting their agendas in Europe. In Germany, the traffic-like coalition fell
00:16apart after the finance minister's dismissal. In France, Macron's political support has
00:21significantly eroded.
00:24The snap elections in France throughout the summer really weakened Macron and impacted
00:29his room for manoeuvre in the European discussions on common debt. For instance, when the Draghi
00:36paper came out, he was in a much weaker position to push for this than before the snap elections
00:43and the European elections. Similar for Scholz, who now hasn't been invited by the Polish
00:50Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, to a European meeting that President Macron, the leader
00:56of the United Kingdom, Kirstjana, and others will attend.
01:01After Donald Trump's election, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced plans to meet
01:05with European leaders to discuss EU defence policy. NATO leaders, along with those from
01:12the UK, France, the Baltics and Scandinavia, will be invited. Yet, German Chancellor Olaf
01:18Scholz hasn't received an invitation.
01:22Germany's political crisis couldn't come at a worse time. With Trump soon returning to
01:26the White House, he may attempt to sow divisions within the EU.
01:34Donald Trump has every interest to bilateralise transatlantic relations because he knows that
01:39if he speaks to Viktor Orban, to Emmanuel Macron, to Olaf Scholz or his successor bilaterally
01:46that he will have much more weight in tariff discussions, in discussions on European defence
01:51than if he would speak to a bloc of 27 EU member states that have a common position
01:56and I think that's a big risk right now.
02:00The threat of recession in Germany could place additional stress on the Franco-German engine.
02:06Germany, the EU's largest economy, will be focused on the election campaign as Trump
02:11returns and threatens to impose tariffs on European imports.