Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Plenty of political instability on both sides of the Rhine.
00:03The German Chancellor this Monday falling on his own sword, Olaf Scholz deciding now
00:11is the time to pull the trigger and stage a vote of no confidence, which as expected
00:17he lost.
00:19That sets the stage for snap elections, most probably on February the 23rd.
00:25Let's go to Berlin.
00:27And France 24 correspondent Nick Holdsworth who joins the conversation.
00:32I don't know if body language matters or not, but Scholz seemed kind of chipper during that
00:40vote and afterwards when he sat down with President Frank-Walter Stonemaier.
00:45Well, absolutely, this is precisely what Olaf Scholz wanted.
00:52He wanted the vote of confidence to be a vote of no confidence so that he could go
00:57to Frank-Walter Stonemaier, the German president, and ask him to dissolve the parliament, the
01:03Bundestag, and call new elections.
01:08I mean, Scholz has been in a very difficult position.
01:12Some may say it's partially of his own making, but when Christian Lindner, his finance minister
01:17from the Free Democrat Party, walked out of the coalition November the 6th, the same
01:24day that Trump was re-elected for a second term in America, the entire political landscape
01:33here has been a complete mess since then.
01:37The traffic light, so-called traffic light coalition of three parties down to two, the
01:41Greens and the Social Democrats, can't get anything passed, can't do anything.
01:45I mean, everything's set in this sort of mud at the moment.
01:50They can't even pass a budget.
01:51And even if those elections are run on the 23rd of February, and if those elections result
01:58pretty swiftly in a new government, and it's going likely to be a coalition, there won't
02:03be a federal budget in Germany until July at the earliest.
02:07Now, that's not going to cause problems for pensioners and people like that getting their
02:12state money.
02:13It won't cause problems for any German company or concern that receives money from the state
02:18because they can only receive up to 45% of what's been pledged in the previous budget.
02:24So we're going to have a period of turmoil.
02:26Now, Schultz, I think, is looking forward to re-engaging in politics.
02:31I mean, if you saw the debate today, his prize moment was wagging his finger at his former
02:39finance minister, Christian Lindner, accusing him of moral immaturity.
02:45And again, the odds on favourite to be the next chance are not Schultz, but the leader
02:50of the centre-right SDU, Friedrich Merz.
02:54He's also pleased because he sees this as a chance to set out policies so that Germans
03:00have a clear understanding of what the differences are in the Bundestag and can make their choice.
03:06So both of the two main leaders of the two biggest parties are pleased with the results.
03:16And at the same time, we may not actually know precisely if that election is going to
03:20be called for the 23rd of February until after the Christmas holidays because the German
03:26president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said these decisions aren't up to the daily beat of politics
03:34or the media.
03:36These are up to the rules of the German constitution and I'll think about this and I'll announce
03:40my decision after the Christmas holidays.
03:42So for the moment, there's kind of this phony war.
03:45We're waiting now to know whether we're going to have those elections in February.
03:49It's interesting because from what you're saying, both Olaf Schultz from the centre-left
03:54and Friedrich Merz from the centre-rights trying to stake out the middle ground.
03:58There had been rumours when the day began, Nick, that the far-right AfD party might vote
04:03against the motion in a bid to throw Schultz off his game.
04:08That did not materialise, though.
04:11No, that didn't.
04:14They had said that they might vote with Schultz's party, the Social Democrats, which is why
04:20the Greens said that they were going to abstain.
04:22In the end, the AfD just did a vault face and voted against Schultz as well.
04:28The results were quite clear.
04:29It was 204 votes to keep Schultz in power and nearly 400 to boot him out and have new
04:39elections.
04:40The AfD, of course, when it comes to the campaign, they are a wild card.
04:47They're polling at the moment 20%, which is three percentage points ahead of the Social
04:51Democrats, Schultz's party, polling at around 17%.
04:55And the bookie's favourite, the CDU-CSU coalition led by Friedrich Merz, polling at 31%.
05:02But whoever actually gets the largest proportion of the votes is almost certainly not going
05:09to have a majority.
05:10We're going to have another coalition run in Germany come the spring.
05:16Nick Holdsworth reporting live from Berlin.
05:18Thanks so much for that.
05:19And joining our conversation now, pleased as always to welcome Elisabeth Humpert-Dorfmüller,
05:24co-president of the Paris branch or the international branch of Olaf Schultz's SPD party.
05:31Thanks for being with us.
05:33Lots to unpack, including what we just heard about budget problems on both sides of the
05:37Rhine.
05:39Let's begin, though, with Olaf Schultz being so chipper when he's polling behind the AfD.
05:45He was like that in 21 too.
05:47I mean, nobody thought in the beginning of 21 that he would win the election and he won
05:50the election.
05:51That was because the candidate of the right of the Christian Democrats was very bad.
05:56This time, the candidate of the Christian Democrat, I don't think he's popular.
06:01He's not popular, but he might win.
06:03It looks like he will win next February.
06:07The journalist we just heard says that there's going to be again a coalition.
06:11But this is Germany.
06:12It's always been coalitions.
06:13There was only once a mandate from Konrad Adenauer in four years where he did rule alone
06:21without a coalition.
06:22Between 49 and now we have always had coalitions.
06:25So this is the German way of democracy.
06:28And the German way of democracy, this is the big difference with France, includes that
06:34it's only the chancellor who can call the vote of no confidence.
06:37He can do that.
06:38He can do that.
06:39But the parliamentarians themselves can't do it.
06:41Yes, that's true.
06:42That's part of the constitution.
06:43I mean, it's a rare tool, I have to say.
06:46It has not been so much utilized yet.
06:49It has been four or five times since 1949.
06:52So it's not a tool somebody will want to govern with or wants to threaten with something.
06:58It's very rarely used.
07:02Last time it was used, it was Chancellor Schröder who used it in 2005, who thought he could
07:07win after that.
07:08He didn't.
07:10And in both cases, Schröder in 2005 and Scholz now, they are in a position where the situation
07:19of the country is very difficult.
07:22Schröder still had his majority, though, in 2005.
07:25Scholz doesn't have a majority anymore, as you know, because the Liberal Party left.
07:30So he's a very confident person, Scholz.
07:33So he thinks he can win.
07:36I mean, it's against the odds, really.
07:38So let's cut to the chase here, Elisabeth.
07:41Which is a bigger mess right now, France with its budget problems or Germany with its budget
07:45problems?
07:46It's a very good question.
07:47I mean, these two countries, you can really compare them in many respects.
07:52But I think the problem, the main problem in both cases stems from the Ukrainian war.
07:58I mean, it was in 22 that the war in Ukraine started and that Macron did not, a few months
08:04later, get his majority in the parliament, which he would have wanted to get, of course.
08:09Because of what?
08:10Because of inflation, because of instability.
08:12So France was very affected.
08:14Germany was even more affected because it's a much more industrialized country.
08:18So industry in Germany right now is suffering a lot.
08:22I mean, energy prices.
08:24Germany is really losing its momentum here, its industrial momentum.
08:29In 24 and in 23, in Germany, one of the only countries, biggest countries in the world
08:35who has experienced recession.
08:37It's linked to the Ukrainian war.
08:39So I would say you can compare them both.
08:41They have different political systems.
08:43They have different majorities.
08:45But I think the problem stems from the same origin, unfortunately.
08:49Mark Perlman, the problem in France, can you trace it to Ukraine to a large degree?
08:56I mean, to some degree, I wouldn't say you cannot trace to Ukraine.
09:02I think Macron has his self-inflicted wounds because clearly he thought that he could,
09:10after he was reelected in 2022, which was a historical performance, he didn't campaign
09:16really for the ensuing legislative elections, kind of thought, you know, it would happen,
09:22he would get a majority again.
09:24And this is where the problem started.
09:26He only had a relative majority.
09:28But if you compare to the mess he has since created by calling those snap elections last
09:35summer, now there's no majority anymore.
09:37So even a relative majority now seems a luxury.
09:40Yes, they could, they had a problem, but they could pass legislation.
09:44Now France finds itself in really a crisis, a political crisis, because there's no majority
09:51and we're far from a majority.
09:52All the three blocs are far away from the 289-seat majority in the National Assembly.
10:01So yes, obviously there are external factors, but there are also internal factors, political
10:08factors, you know, the national rally keeping the momentum, a leftist coalition that was
10:16able to form and challenge Emmanuel Macron's hope that he would really build a centrist
10:23central party.
10:25And this hope has vanished.
10:26So a splintering of politics here in France, Elisabeth Humbertoff-Müller.
10:32Your thoughts?
10:33Marine Le Pen, because she has the largest political bloc, as Marc was saying, the largest
10:39party in parliament, she was the first one this morning to go to see the prime minister.
10:45There's a sort of legitimization of the far right.
10:48Again, how far do you push the comparisons between France and Germany when it comes to
10:52that?
10:53I mean, it's the same development, really.
10:56I mean, the Le Pens have been very present in French politics since the 80s, so it stems
11:01from a very long time ago.
11:03That was not the case in Germany.
11:05In Germany, it started with the euro crisis.
11:07So in the 2007, 8s, 9s, when this party AfD really got more and more popular.
11:16So now they have a little bit changed, they're even more far right than they used to be.
11:23So they have some fascists and I mean, even sometimes neo-Nazi characteristics, sometimes,
11:31I'm not saying all of them, but they are very, very far right.
11:35Much far right than Le Pen.
11:37More far right?
11:38Yes.
11:39Yes, definitely.
11:40I mean, Jean-Marie Le Pen was a different thing.
11:42But now, if you compare with Marine Le Pen, it has nothing to do anymore with it.
11:46By the way, they're not sitting in the same parliamentary group in the European Parliament
11:50anymore.
11:51And even on economic issues, they totally diverge.
11:56I mean, AfD is not only very far right on this society issues, politically also, but
12:02economically, it's very liberal.
12:05So it's the classical far right who does not, they don't really want to help the poor people.
12:12I mean, that's not their point.
12:14One final question.
12:15You mentioned the war in Ukraine had an impact on inflation and such.
12:21Frederik Mertz, much more hawkish than Olaf Scholz.
12:27Is that a winning posture?
12:30To win the elections?
12:33That's a very good question, because I'm uncertain about it.
12:36Okay, so the support in Ukraine is popular in Germany.
12:40I mean, I don't know, 70% of the Germans think it's very good to support Ukraine.
12:45But they also, a majority of the Germans also thought that the way Scholz handled this was
12:51the right way.
12:52The way to be careful not to send all possible defense material to Ukraine, no defense material
13:01which goes into Russia.
13:03So Scholz is, I mean, Germany is the biggest, second biggest contributor to the Ukrainian
13:09war after the United States.
13:11So Germany does a lot of helping, but Scholz has always been extremely cautious, whereas
13:18Mertz, as you say, is hawkish and wants to put as much as possible into this, let's say,
13:26subject.
13:27And this is probably not going to prove very popular.
13:31So he has probably to scale down this a little bit in order to win the election.
13:35All right, there's a prediction.
13:36And of course, in between, we'll have the inauguration of Donald Trump, Elisabeth Ulrich
13:39Darfmuller.
13:40I want to thank you.
13:41I want to thank as well our politics editor, Mark Perlman.
13:44Stay with us.
13:45Much more to come here on France 24.
13:46More news, plus today's business and sports.