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00:00Well, welcome to this Saturday inside Tiger Stadium, a
00:06significant one between 11th ranked Alabama in the CFP top
00:1025 and number 15 LSU. Joe, both of these teams already with two
00:16losses this year. Again, we had never seen a two-loss team get
00:20to the college football playoff in the four-team era. We will
00:23see multiple teams with multiple losses reach the 12-team field
00:27in the college football playoff, and perhaps maybe even
00:31depending on how the rest of the country shakes out a three-loss
00:35team. But the importance of this game, of course, cannot be
00:38magnified enough, and Alabama is a road favorite inside Tiger
00:43Stadium. Under the lights at night, a very difficult place to
00:46win. It is, and you have a contrast in terms of offenses
00:49right now. Alabama running the football a little bit better,
00:52averaging 177 yards on the ground. LSU throwing for 332
00:57through the air. That's where they have the edge with Garrett
01:00Nussmeier at the helm. We saw LSU build a first-half lead
01:04against Texas A&M a couple weeks ago, and all of a sudden
01:07in the second half, they change to Marcel Reed. They cannot
01:10stop the RPO game. He rushes for 62 yards, three touchdowns,
01:14makes a couple big plays over the top, and sign sealed,
01:17delivered. Texas A&M wins that matchup. That is going to be the
01:21X factor tonight. Can LSU contain the athleticism of Jalen
01:26Milrow in terms of the RPO game? If they can, I think
01:29they'll be in this matchup. It's an easier said than done,
01:32but playing at home, we've seen Alabama struggle. They lost on
01:35the road to Vanderbilt, lost on the road to Tennessee. With the
01:38extra week of preparation, I'm going to take the points, Kev,
01:41with LSU and Brian Kelly. So this is a really interesting
01:44spot for me because I am holding tickets that would
01:47suggest I need LSU to win this game. Preseason, a 12-1 to win
01:51the SEC Championship. With some help today, they could have a
01:55real clear shot at making that title game, which, holding a
01:5812-1, that's all I'm really looking for. I also played
02:00BAM at 4-1 to miss the playoff following the Vanderbilt loss.
02:05With that said, I'm on Alabama here in this game because that's
02:09just where I ended up. You can play the spread math however
02:11you want. If you want to just kind of factor in home field
02:14advantage, and you could very well say that LSU today's home
02:17field advantage is worth more than even a field goal, right?
02:21This number, that means the Crimson Tide would be easily
02:23laying over a touchdown at home. It might sound lofty, and
02:26that is probably one of the ways people will justify getting
02:29to LSU. I offer up the other end of it, though. Ole Miss showed
02:32up to this building in late 3-1. I still fully believe Alabama
02:36is better than Ole Miss. Alabama went to Tennessee in
02:39late 3-1. I believe Tennessee is better than LSU. So we're
02:43under a field goal here. I have to play Alabama. And what I am
02:46doing, and I will let people know this due to my other
02:48tickets, the LSU one and the BAM and missed the playoff, I
02:52cannot afford to get middled in this game. I cannot lay two
02:55and a half, and Bama win by one or two, and all of the things
02:58are going to lose then. So I had to play Bama's money line in
03:01this game, which is what I am doing. Kalen DeBoer has been
03:06money. He has been absolute money. I mean, Czech Panther.
03:11I mean, we're trying to get the people fired up early. I was
03:14getting a pulse on Baton Rouge. Yeah, he was. I was getting a
03:17pulse. They're starting early down there in Baton Rouge today,
03:20huh? It was 7 o'clock in the morning. They got the Tiger on
03:24the sidelines. Kalen DeBoer has been money off of a bye. Ryan
03:29Kelly is great, home dog, everything. Yeah. But I think
03:32DeBoer offers as good of a resume as well. With what I've
03:35seen from these teams, I gotta play the Crimson Tide here. Both
03:38of these teams off a bye. Alabama shut out Missouri at
03:42home inside. Brian Denny, perhaps their best performance
03:45in SEC play. In fact, as four favorites in four SEC games
03:50this year, the only time the Tide has covered the number so
03:53far in conference action. LSU a dismal second half in college
03:57station against Texas A&M with that Blake Baker-led defense
04:01still had some of its woes trying to contain Marcel Reed.
04:05LSU has two losses, one in the non-conference season opener
04:08against USC. Alabama has two losses, both coming in
04:13conference play. And I do wanna highlight, as we see Alabama's
04:17team outlook here and where things stand, the Crimson Tide
04:20number 11 in the first CFP rankings, still an odds-on
04:24favorite in minus money at minus 140 to reach the college
04:27football playoff. How that home field advantage, Joe, does
04:30factor in tonight. Since 1960, we've already seen this recipe
04:34against Ole Miss earlier in the year. Since 1960, LSU inside
04:39Tiger Stadium after the sun has set, 243-61-4 straight up. That
04:45is a win percentage of 79% with Brian Kelly since the start
04:50of 2022. At-night home games in Death Valley, a perfect 12-0
04:55straight up as a home underdog. Four times with BK in the last
04:59two and a half years, the Bayou Bengals are 3-1 straight up as
05:04an underdog. Joe, we talk a lot about the atmospheres and the
05:06pantheons of college football. Tiger Stadium is that, and it's
05:10only amplified at night. You mentioned the live Tiger. There
05:13will be a live Tiger that is not Mike the Tiger, reportedly
05:17on the sideline today for the Bayou Bengals. If LSU uses that
05:21home field advantage, Joe, from a matchup perspective, how do
05:24they get the better of the Crimson Tide? I think it has to
05:26be Garrett Nussmeyer early with the passing attack. It's going
05:29to be a fast track, start fast, and put the pressure on Jalen
05:32Milrow. If they allow Jalen Milrow in that rushing attack,
05:36that pound of the rock for 271 against Missouri and 7.3 yards
05:40per rush. It's going to be a long day for LSU. We've seen
05:43LSU sometimes struggle with more physical teams. We saw it
05:47early on with Rocket Sanders and Lenore Sellers in South
05:52Carolina, Williams-Brice. They were on life support in that
05:54game. We saw them struggle against Ole Miss. Ole Miss was
05:58able to run the football early on on that front seven. They
06:01made second half adjustments. Again, it comes down to
06:04Nussmeyer. He was very clean with the football in the first
06:07half of that game. Second half was a complete turnaround, 3-6
06:11He starts turning the football over. It's going to be a long
06:13day, but it is the front seven and it has to be LSU with Lacey
06:17and those wide receivers.