Alencia Johnson talks what's at stake on Election Day.
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00:00So, to begin this town hall, we want to spend a few minutes on the current status of the
00:04presidential race and some congressional races around the country.
00:09To help us unpack all of what is before us, we would like to welcome author Alencia Johnson
00:17to help us set the stage for where we are currently.
00:19In addition to running her own consultancy for several years, Alencia has worked on the
00:25last five presidential campaigns and is currently working with the Harris-Waltz campaign.
00:32Alencia, thank you for joining us.
00:34Thank you all for having me.
00:35It's such an important night.
00:37It's like my, like, Super Bowl right now.
00:40Well, it's important, right?
00:42This is it.
00:43Tomorrow is election day.
00:45Already 76 million people have already cast their vote through various forms of early
00:50voting for national, state, and local races.
00:53And to start with, I want to ask you a question that I get all the time.
00:58And it's increased with frequency over the last few days.
01:02And the question I often get is, who is going to win?
01:05So can you tell us how you respond to that question?
01:08Because I assume you get that question quite often.
01:11You're on television stations all over the country.
01:13You're working for the Harris-Waltz campaign.
01:16What's your response to that question when people ask you who's going to win this election?
01:20Well, this cycle, I actually try to educate them on how election nights typically go.
01:27Sometimes they will not be called exactly on Tuesday night, given the rules around being
01:32able to count the early voting ballots, as well as the mail-in ballots.
01:37Obviously, as you can see my shirt, it says, vote for her and her and her.
01:42I do believe that Vice President Harris will win.
01:46Now, I caveat that with, that means we cannot take our foot off the gas, right?
01:52Tomorrow is the last day to vote, meaning people have been voting early.
01:56We've seen a lot of unprecedented early voting numbers.
01:59We've seen a lot when it comes to women voters, first-time voters that are showing up.
02:05But that's not the full picture.
02:07The only way that she does win is if folks show up tomorrow.
02:10I know this is nonpartisan, but y'all know I'm a bit partisan here.
02:14I do believe that she will win.
02:15The other thing I will say, as we talk about this election and who will win tomorrow, there's
02:21another candidate who is actually out there already saying that the election is rigged,
02:28that the election is not going to go the way that they want it to.
02:31And I do think we have to make sure that we are paying attention to news sources, like
02:35the Associated Press, and waiting for them to call the election.
02:41Lindsay, let me ask you about some of the poll results.
02:46So we're hearing about how you feel, who is going to win, and which way you think.
02:50But we've seen a lot of different polls swaying one way or the other, whether it'll be educated
02:56women that will help push this.
02:57We saw also new polling come out of Iowa, and she's up three points there.
03:03But when we look at the totality of the polls, we know we can't lean too hard on them because
03:08there was no red wave like it was predicted, a lot of things.
03:12What are the polls saying, though?
03:13Well, look, I'm glad you actually brought up there was no red wave, and you were referring
03:17to, for the viewers who may not understand that reference, you're referring to the 2022
03:22midterms when a lot of Republicans felt as though they were going to have this red wave
03:27and take back the House of Representatives.
03:30What also happened in 2022, and this is a key piece of the polling and the way that
03:34we should analyze this polling, what also happened in 2022, the Dobbs decision that
03:38overturned Roe v. Wade, the protections of abortion access.
03:43In addition to all my campaign work, I worked for Planned Parenthood for six years, and
03:47we knew that abortion, whenever they got the opportunity to overturn Roe v. Wade and seat
03:53a Supreme Court justice who would do that, they would do it, and they would overturn
03:57it, and they did.
03:58But we also knew that that would be a deciding issue, and that in 2022, all this polling,
04:04I would sit on national television with all these white male pollsters and DC insiders
04:09trying to tell me that abortion would not be a deciding issue for a lot of voters.
04:15The exit polling in 2022 showed that it was a priority issue for not just women voters,
04:20but for some voters of color and young people, and that's why the Republicans since 22 have
04:25only held a majority by a handful of seats.
04:30So fast forward to 2024, where we are right now, a lot of the polling isn't fully capturing
04:35how abortion access is going to shift folks' opinion once they get into the ballot box.
04:41We've seen anecdotal information that there are Republican women, that that is their heartline.
04:45I mean, I think there could have been a lot of other things that could have been their
04:48heartline, but they're finally here.
04:50That's fine.
04:51We know that abortion access is on the ballot in states like Florida, Nevada, and Arizona.
04:58That can not only impact the presidential race, but also the Senate races in those states
05:02as well.
05:03And so the polling, I would continue to say, look at it as an indicator, but not the full
05:09picture because you will see on television that the economy, immigration, all of these
05:15issues are number one issues for folks.
05:17But abortion is actually a number one issue for a lot of people, and that is an issue
05:21that people tie to either freedom or their economy.
05:24So we have to make sure we're going into these conversations around polling with the
05:29full scope and also understanding that they can be wrong.
05:32They were wrong in 2016 about Secretary Clinton, and they were wrong a little bit in 2020.
05:39We've seen some polling this cycle that have quite a few people confused.
05:43The only poll that matters, I tell people all the time, the only poll that matters is
05:46the exit polling after election day tomorrow.
05:50So let's talk a little bit about that because as you know, we mentioned in the beginning
05:54of this segment that 76 million people have already cast their votes.
05:59And of course, a question that someone could derive from that is, well, is there anything
06:04we can glean from the folks who are voting early, right?
06:07They're going to the polls, they've gone in, we think, significant numbers, 76 million.
06:13What do we know from the early voting numbers and the results of those numbers?
06:18Do we know anything or do we know, can we sort of reach certain conclusions based on
06:24the number of people who have voted and maybe the direction that they voted in?
06:27I think it can give us an indication of trends.
06:30Listen, some of these numbers are unprecedented in certain states.
06:34They are historic numbers.
06:35And on one hand though, we have heard that in some states, the early vote turnout numbers
06:41are higher for Republicans than Democrats.
06:44And in 2020, that was in reverse.
06:47Democrats had a higher early voting and mail-in ballots.
06:49Now, also 2020, we were in the middle of a global pandemic.
06:52We didn't even have vaccines then, right?
06:54So voting was a little bit different then.
06:56We've also seen a lot of voter suppression laws enacted in certain states and some states
07:02have also actually made voting a lot easier.
07:05That's probably playing a factor into some of the early voting numbers.
07:08But I will say the number one thing that it is telling us is that there is an enthusiasm
07:12around this election.
07:15There's an enthusiasm around a new way forward.
07:19There's enthusiasm around just getting our country back to a place where we can talk
07:24about issues and move forward.
07:27We are seeing in counties all over mail-in ballots coming in at record numbers.
07:32And so that is telling us that there's energy, but that doesn't mean that we should slow
07:37down and not show up tomorrow or even try to get people out tomorrow.
07:41Because in some states, you can register on the same day as election day and cast your
07:46ballot too.
07:47And so be part of this enthusiasm.
07:50That is the conclusion that we can tell right now.
07:53But one other conclusion that we can make is that new registered voters are extremely
07:58excited right now because their numbers are turning out in high numbers.
08:04Alicia, in addition to the presidential race, we always talk about that, but we also got
08:09to talk about Congress, right?
08:10So Democrats and Republicans are fighting over control over Congress with key Senate
08:15and House races that we see, while many of these key races overlap with some of the battleground
08:20states like in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
08:24There are also some solid blue and red states whose competitive races are an interesting
08:30foray into the future of both parties.
08:33So we see in Montana, incumbent Democrat Senator Jon Tester, third generation Montana
08:39farmer facing Republican Tim Sheehy, and Senator Tester is the only statewide elected Democrat.
08:48It's a particular interesting race as Montana is solidly a red state in the presidential
08:53election and had in the past few years influx of wealthy, many of them conservative, transplants
09:01from other states shifting the political landscape.
09:04So what should people know about the importance of these Senate races when it comes to the
09:10presidency?
09:11Well, absolutely.
09:12I'm so glad you're stressing that because we are all paying attention to the presidential
09:16race.
09:17But if we want, again, I am expecting and hoping that I will be saying Madam President
09:22Kamala Harris tomorrow night or at least by the end of the week.
09:26But in order for her to set forth, put forth that agenda that she has been campaigning
09:30on that I wholeheartedly support, we have to have a Senate that can pass those pieces
09:35of legislation.
09:36And beyond just passing those pieces of legislation, the Senate is important to confirm not only
09:41the appointments to the administration, but also the Supreme Court justices.
09:45The next president will be able to appoint at least two, if not more, Supreme Court justices.
09:52And that is extremely important.
09:53You mentioned also in these states that are solidly either blue or red, there is right
09:59in Montana, Senator Tester, who is there, obviously he's a Democrat and that's a red
10:03state.
10:04There are places like that where sometimes people split the ticket, where they vote for
10:08one person, whether it's a Senate or a member of Congress, for a Democrat and then the presidential
10:15race, they vote somewhere else or they don't vote at all.
10:18The other thing I do want to mention is that in states like North Carolina, excuse me,
10:22New York and California, where we call these blue states when it comes to the presidential
10:29race, but there are some competitive house seats in those states as well.
10:33And the reality is that we have an opportunity, not just at the presidential level, to have
10:37our first black woman president, our first woman president, our first black woman president.
10:41If the house flips to Democrats, the leader of the house will be the speaker of the house,
10:48will be Hakeem Jeffries, and that will be the first black speaker of the house, which
10:52can be huge.
10:53The other thing that's happening, and I'm thinking about another deeply red state that
10:56has a competitive now Senate race, we're talking about Texas, Collin Allrad is giving Ted Cruz
11:02a run for his money, if Collin wins, that's another black senator that we will have.
11:07And so I challenge you all to look down ballots at the Senate races, at the house seats, yes,
11:15all 435 seats are up for election or re-election, and then also look at those ballot measures
11:21because that is how the president is able to enact their agenda.
11:26Or if the outcome isn't what we want at the presidential level, that's how we can have
11:30members that will stop that dangerous agenda.
11:33But I don't think we're going to have to worry about that second piece.
11:36So Lindsay, when you were talking, our folks, our producers put up on the screen two maps
11:44that I want to just make sure we have an opportunity to go through quickly for folks to understand.
11:49Let's just put up the Senate map so folks can understand the current framework that
11:57we're thinking about in terms of the U.S. Senate.
11:59So if you see where the blues are, it says is leaning Democratic.
12:04You see where the red or pink, if you will, it says is leaning Republican.
12:11And then you see the toss-ups, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
12:15Lindsay, is there anything else that you want to add as it relates to this map for folks
12:21to understand?
12:22Absolutely.
12:23So as I mentioned earlier, these ballot measures around abortion, there are ballot measures
12:28to enshrine abortion rights in Nevada and Arizona, some other states as well, but they're
12:32not on this map.
12:34Those ballot measures will impact the Senate race in both Nevada and Arizona.
12:39And so Nevada, Democrats are defending a seat.
12:42And Arizona, we are trying to pick up a seat.
12:46They are running, Republicans are running Carrie Lake, who is very much a Trump and
12:51a woman's body and not very popular.
12:55And so it will be a very interesting race.
12:58And I mentioned Texas, we talked about Montana.
13:01Pennsylvania is going to be extremely interesting because Senator Casey is defending, trying
13:07to defend his seat.
13:08And we know that that is a very close race because of the presidential race, along with
13:12Michigan and Wisconsin.
13:14You know, the Senate, the best case scenario I think folks are predicting is that there's
13:20a 50-50 Senate and then you hope that the vice president is there to be the tie-breaking
13:26votes depending on which party it is.
13:29And so it is really important that we're paying attention to these seats and that we see that
13:34the map could shift depending on how some of the Senate races turn out.
13:39And I will say, the other piece I will say about the Senate race, the Senate races, and
13:43someone actually challenged me on this when I think I was on CNN talking about this.
13:48And oftentimes we talk about how the top of the ticket, you know, has an influence on
13:54Senate races, the House races, state legislatures and down ballot races, right?
13:58But I actually believe that some of these candidates that are running, a lot of these
14:02candidates running for Senate and in-house, they're exciting candidates that are getting
14:06people to actually look at the top of the ticket, right?
14:09There was a time when a lot of folks weren't paying attention to the presidential race
14:12when conversation around President Biden, whether he should exit the race or not, people
14:17were not excited about the presidential race, but they were excited about the Senate race
14:21because they could clearly understand the power that the Senate has.
14:25And I think that has been crystallized because of Supreme Court decisions, like we talked
14:29about the Dodd's decision, but also a returning affirmative action, the Chevron deference,
14:34giving the president unchecked power.
14:36People are now realizing how incredibly important these Senate seats are.
14:41And so I do believe that those are actually influencing the way that people are voting
14:45for the president as well.
14:47So before we end our segment with you, let's just focus briefly on the House.
14:52In the House of Representatives, there are races that are in solidly blue states, such
14:56as New York and California.
14:58And those races are ultimately going to inform and maybe decide who controls the House.
15:04Now, I want to mention one race in New York.
15:08Lara Sabato mentioned that New York's 19th district and also California's 13th district
15:14are listed as toss ups, which may be surprising for some folks because they think of New York
15:19and California as being solidly blue.
15:21If we can put up the House map again, and maybe you can give us some insight, Alencia,
15:26in terms of how is it that in California and in New York, you have certain House races
15:32that really could be toss ups and they could go either blue or red?
15:35Yeah, it's interesting because I think in states, particularly New York and California,
15:39because they have the largest cities in not only our nation, but some of the largest cities
15:43in the world that occupy them that tend to lean heavily Democratic and blue, folks think
15:50that the majority of the state is the same way.
15:53But there are ruled areas, there are more conservative areas.
15:57And to be honest, the, I will say this, the Republicans have done a great, an interesting
16:05job.
16:06I will give them credit for doing a really interesting job in like communicating the
16:12conversations around immigration, that are actually conversations that are happening
16:16in a lot of states, but they've communicated the conversation around immigration.
16:19Now, whether or not it's true, I don't believe it's true the way that they're talking about
16:23it, it has promoted this kind of fear and it's forced voters to pay attention to an
16:33issue that they hadn't really paid attention to in the ways that we have seen in the past.
16:38And so some of these races have become competitive off of unfortunately, what they have created
16:47as a political conversation versus finding solutions.
16:51The reality is these seats, I will say some of these seats, I will throw in there one
16:56of a seat here in my home state of Virginia, the seventh congressional district, Abigail
17:02stepped down and she's running for governor next year.
17:04And so that is a swing district.
17:07I will say these swing districts influence, gave significant influence into how the top
17:13of the Democratic Party ticket was shaped out over the summer, because a lot of Democratic
17:18candidates were saying that they were having trouble when it comes to campaigning with
17:23President Biden at the top of the ticket.
17:25I do believe with Vice President Harris at the top of the ticket, there have been stronger
17:30inroads.
17:31We have seen a lot of campaigning, a lot of fundraising in those spaces and those seats.
17:36And so it will be interesting to watch those as we see the exit poll and come out tomorrow
17:42night.
17:43Alencia Johnson, thank you so much for joining us.
17:46Final comments.
17:48Election Eve, what do you want to leave folks with?
17:51I want folks to stop paying attention to the polls right now and actually go exercise their
17:56right to vote, because sometimes we see these polls and we say, oh, they've got it in the
18:00bag or, oh, my God, my vote's not going to make a difference, so I don't need to show
18:04up.
18:05I actually encourage you to vote tomorrow.
18:08And if you've already voted, go phone bank for a candidate, whether the president, state
18:13legislature, or even a down ballot, a ballot measure that you care about to try to get
18:18at least two or three other people to turn out and vote, because those few votes will
18:21make a difference in the election.
18:24Alencia, thank you for joining us.
18:26And for folks who may not know this, she just released a book.
18:29If you haven't read it, please do.
18:31Thank you for joining us tonight and for all of the work that you've done to advance democracy
18:35over the past several years.